Predator mass mortality events restructure food webs through trophic decoupling.

Predators have a key role in structuring ecosystems1-4. However, predator loss is accelerating globally4-6, and predator mass-mortality events7 (MMEs)-rapid large-scale die-offs-are now emblematic of the Anthropocene epoch6. Owing to their rare and unpredictable nature7, we lack an understanding of how MMEs immediately impact ecosystems. Past predator-removal studies2,3 may be insufficient to understand the ecological consequences of MMEs because, in nature, dead predators decompose in situ and generate a resource pulse8, which could alter ensuing ecosystem dynamics by temporarily enhancing productivity. Here we experimentally induce MMEs in tritrophic, freshwater lake food webs and report ecological dynamics that are distinct from predator losses2,3 or resource pulses9 alone, but that can be predicted from theory8. MMEs led to the proliferation of diverse consumer and producer communities resulting from weakened top-down predator control1-3 and stronger bottom-up effects through predator decomposition8. In contrast to predator removals alone, enhanced primary production after MMEs dampened the consumer community response. As a consequence, MMEs generated biomass dynamics that were most similar to those of undisturbed systems, indicating that they may be cryptic disturbances in nature. These biomass dynamics led to trophic decoupling, whereby the indirect beneficial effects of predators on primary producers are lost and later materialize as direct bottom-up effects that stimulate primary production amid intensified herbivory. These results reveal ecological signatures of MMEs and demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting novel ecological dynamics arising with intensifying global change.

Unveiling the transition from niche to dispersal assembly in ecology.

A central goal in ecology is to understand what maintains species diversity in local communities. Classic ecological theory1,2 posits that niches dictate the maximum number of species that can coexist in a community and that the richness of observed species will be below this maximum only where immigration is very low. A new alternative theory3,4 is that niches, instead, dictate the minimum number of coexisting species and that the richness of observed species will usually be well above this because of ongoing immigration. We conducted an experimental test to discriminate between these two unified theories using a manipulative field experiment with tropical intertidal communities. We found, consistent with the new theory, that the relationship of species richness to immigration rate stabilized at a low value at low immigration rates and did not saturate at high immigration rates. Our results suggest that tropical intertidal communities have low niche diversity and are typically in a dispersal-assembled regime where immigration is high enough to overfill the niches. Observational data from other studies3,5 suggest that these conclusions may generalize to other ecological systems. Our new experimental approach can be adapted for other systems and be used as a 'niche detector' and a tool for assessing when communities are niche versus dispersal assembled.

Contingency and statistical laws in replicate microbial closed ecosystems.

Contingency, the persistent influence of past random events, pervades biology. To what extent, then, is each course of ecological or evolutionary dynamics unique, and to what extent are these dynamics subject to a common statistical structure? Addressing this question requires replicate measurements to search for emergent statistical laws. We establish a readily replicated microbial closed ecosystem (CES), sustaining its three species for years. We precisely measure the local population density of each species in many CES replicates, started from the same initial conditions and kept under constant light and temperature. The covariation among replicates of the three species densities acquires a stable structure, which could be decomposed into discrete eigenvectors, or "ecomodes." The largest ecomode dominates population density fluctuations around the replicate-average dynamics. These fluctuations follow simple power laws consistent with a geometric random walk. Thus, variability in ecological dynamics can be studied with CES replicates and described by simple statistical laws.

Genomic legacy of migration in endangered caribou.

Wide-ranging animals, including migratory species, are significantly threatened by the effects of habitat fragmentation and habitat loss. In the case of terrestrial mammals, this results in nearly a quarter of species being at risk of extinction. Caribou are one such example of a wide-ranging, migratory, terrestrial, and endangered mammal. In populations of caribou, the proportion of individuals considered as "migrants" can vary dramatically. There is therefore a possibility that, under the condition that migratory behavior is genetically determined, those individuals or populations that are migratory will be further impacted by humans, and this impact could result in the permanent loss of the migratory trait in some populations. However, genetic determination of migration has not previously been studied in an endangered terrestrial mammal. We examined migratory behavior of 139 GPS-collared endangered caribou in western North America and carried out genomic scans for the same individuals. Here we determine a genetic subdivision of caribou into a Northern and a Southern genetic cluster. We also detect >50 SNPs associated with migratory behavior, which are in genes with hypothesized roles in determining migration in other organisms. Furthermore, we determine that propensity to migrate depends upon the proportion of ancestry in individual caribou, and thus on the evolutionary history of its migratory and sedentary subspecies. If, as we report, migratory behavior is influenced by genes, caribou could be further impacted by the loss of the migratory trait in some isolated populations already at low numbers. Our results indicating an ancestral genetic component also suggest that the migratory trait and their associated genetic mutations could not be easily re-established when lost in a population.

A practical guide to cross-cultural and multi-sited data collection in the biological and behavioural sciences.

Researchers in the biological and behavioural sciences are increasingly conducting collaborative, multi-sited projects to address how phenomena vary across ecologies. These types of projects, however, pose additional workflow challenges beyond those typically encountered in single-sited projects. Through specific attention to cross-cultural research projects, we highlight four key aspects of multi-sited projects that must be considered during the design phase to ensure success: (1) project and team management; (2) protocol and instrument development; (3) data management and documentation; and (4) equitable and collaborative practices. Our recommendations are supported by examples from our experiences collaborating on the Evolutionary Demography of Religion project, a mixed-methods project collecting data across five countries in collaboration with research partners in each host country. To existing discourse, we contribute new recommendations around team and project management, introduce practical recommendations for exploring the validity of instruments through qualitative techniques during piloting, highlight the importance of good documentation at all steps of the project, and demonstrate how data management workflows can be strengthened through open science practices. While this project was rooted in cross-cultural human behavioural ecology and evolutionary anthropology, lessons learned from this project are applicable to multi-sited research across the biological and behavioural sciences.

Moving restoration ecology forward with combinatorial approaches.

Our current planetary crisis, including multiple jointly acting factors of global change, moves the need for effective ecosystem restoration center stage and compels us to explore unusual options. We here propose exploring combinatorial approaches to restoration practices: management practices are drawn at random and combined from a locally relevant pool of possible management interventions, thus creating an experimental gradient in the number of interventions. This will move the current degree of interventions to higher dimensionality, opening new opportunities for unlocking unknown synergistic effects. Thus, the high dimensionality of global change (multiple jointly acting factors) would be more effectively countered by similar high-dimensionality in solutions. In this concept, regional restoration hubs play an important role as guardians of locally relevant information and sites of experimental exploration. Data collected from such studies could feed into a global database, which could be used to learn about general principles of combined restoration practices, helping to refine future experiments. Such combinatorial approaches to exploring restoration intervention options may be our best hope yet to achieve decisive progress in ecological restoration at the timescale needed to mitigate and reverse the most severe losses caused by global environmental change.

Global and national trends, gaps, and opportunities in documenting and monitoring species distributions.

Conserving and managing biodiversity in the face of ongoing global change requires sufficient evidence to assess status and trends of species distributions. Here, we propose novel indicators of biodiversity data coverage and sampling effectiveness and analyze national trajectories in closing spatiotemporal knowledge gaps for terrestrial vertebrates (1950 to 2019). Despite a rapid rise in data coverage, particularly in the last 2 decades, strong geographic and taxonomic biases persist. For some taxa and regions, a tremendous growth in records failed to directly translate into newfound knowledge due to a sharp decline in sampling effectiveness. However, we found that a nation's coverage was stronger for species for which it holds greater stewardship. As countries under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework renew their commitments to an improved, rigorous biodiversity knowledge base, our findings highlight opportunities for international collaboration to close critical information gaps.

Modelling animal social networks: New solutions and future directions.

Research Highlight: Ross, C. T., McElreath, R., & Redhead, D. (2023). Modelling animal network data in R using STRAND. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14021. One of the most important insights in ecology over the past decade has been that the social connections among animals affect a wide range of ecological and evolutionary processes. However, despite over 20 years of study effort on this topic, generating knowledge from data on social associations and interactions remains fraught with problems. Redhead et al. present an R package-STRAND-that extends the current animal social network analysis toolbox in two ways. First, they provide a simple R interfaces to implement generative network models, which are an alternative to regression approaches that draw inference by simulating the data-generating process. Second, they implement these models in a Bayesian framework, allowing uncertainty in the observation process to be carried through to hypothesis testing. STRAND therefore fills an important gap for hypothesis testing using network data. However, major challenges remain, and while STRAND represents an important advance, generating robust results continues to require careful study design, considerations in terms of statistical methods and a plurality of approaches.

Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis.

Meta-analysis is the quantitative, scientific synthesis of research results. Since the term and modern approaches to research synthesis were first introduced in the 1970s, meta-analysis has had a revolutionary effect in many scientific fields, helping to establish evidence-based practice and to resolve seemingly contradictory research outcomes. At the same time, its implementation has engendered criticism and controversy, in some cases general and others specific to particular disciplines. Here we take the opportunity provided by the recent fortieth anniversary of meta-analysis to reflect on the accomplishments, limitations, recent advances and directions for future developments in the field of research synthesis.

Closed microbial communities self-organize to persistently cycle carbon.

Cycles of nutrients (N, P, etc.) and resources (C) are a defining emergent feature of ecosystems. Cycling plays a critical role in determining ecosystem structure at all scales, from microbial communities to the entire biosphere. Stable cycles are essential for ecosystem persistence because they allow resources and nutrients to be regenerated. Therefore, a central problem in ecology is understanding how ecosystems are organized to sustain robust cycles. Addressing this problem quantitatively has proved challenging because of the difficulties associated with manipulating ecosystem structure while measuring cycling. We address this problem using closed microbial ecosystems (CES), hermetically sealed microbial consortia provided with only light. We develop a technique for quantifying carbon cycling in hermetically sealed microbial communities and show that CES composed of an alga and diverse bacterial consortia self-organize to robustly cycle carbon for months. Comparing replicates of diverse CES, we find that carbon cycling does not depend strongly on the taxonomy of the bacteria present. Moreover, despite strong taxonomic differences, self-organized CES exhibit a conserved set of metabolic capabilities. Therefore, an emergent carbon cycle enforces metabolic but not taxonomic constraints on ecosystem organization. Our study helps establish closed microbial communities as model ecosystems to study emergent function and persistence in replicate systems while controlling community composition and the environment.

Phylogenomic and ecological analyses reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of global pines.

How coniferous forests evolved in the Northern Hemisphere remains largely unknown. Unlike most groups of organisms that generally follow a latitudinal diversity gradient, most conifer species in the Northern Hemisphere are distributed in mountainous areas at middle latitudes. It is of great interest to know whether the midlatitude region has been an evolutionary cradle or museum for conifers and how evolutionary and ecological factors have driven their spatiotemporal evolution. Here, we investigated the macroevolution of Pinus, the largest conifer genus and characteristic of northern temperate coniferous forests, based on nearly complete species sampling. Using 1,662 genes from transcriptome sequences, we reconstructed a robust species phylogeny and reestimated divergence times of global pines. We found that ∼90% of extant pine species originated in the Miocene in sharp contrast to the ancient origin of Pinus, indicating a Neogene rediversification. Surprisingly, species at middle latitudes are much older than those at other latitudes. This finding, coupled with net diversification rate analysis, indicates that the midlatitude region has provided an evolutionary museum for global pines. Analyses of 31 environmental variables, together with a comparison of evolutionary rates of niche and phenotypic traits with a net diversification rate, found that topography played a primary role in pine diversification, and the aridity index was decisive for the niche rate shift. Moreover, fire has forced diversification and adaptive evolution of Pinus Our study highlights the importance of integrating phylogenomic and ecological approaches to address evolution of biological groups at the global scale.