Adaptive foraging behaviours in the Horn of Africa during Toba supereruption.

Although modern humans left Africa multiple times over 100,000 years ago, those broadly ancestral to non-Africans dispersed less than 100,000 years ago1. Most models hold that these events occurred through green corridors created during humid periods because arid intervals constrained population movements2. Here we report an archaeological site-Shinfa-Metema 1, in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia, with Youngest Toba Tuff cryptotephra dated to around 74,000 years ago-that provides early and rare evidence of intensive riverine-based foraging aided by the likely adoption of the bow and arrow. The diet included a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic animals. Stable oxygen isotopes from fossil mammal teeth and ostrich eggshell show that the site was occupied during a period of high seasonal aridity. The unusual abundance of fish suggests that capture occurred in the ever smaller and shallower waterholes of a seasonal river during a long dry season, revealing flexible adaptations to challenging climatic conditions during the Middle Stone Age. Adaptive foraging along dry-season waterholes would have transformed seasonal rivers into 'blue highway' corridors, potentially facilitating an out-of-Africa dispersal and suggesting that the event was not restricted to times of humid climates. The behavioural flexibility required to survive seasonally arid conditions in general, and the apparent short-term effects of the Toba supereruption in particular were probably key to the most recent dispersal and subsequent worldwide expansion of modern humans.

Age of the oldest known Homo sapiens from eastern Africa.

Efforts to date the oldest modern human fossils in eastern Africa, from Omo-Kibish1-3 and Herto4,5 in Ethiopia, have drawn on a variety of chronometric evidence, including 40Ar/39Ar ages of stratigraphically associated tuffs. The ages that are generally reported for these fossils are around 197 thousand years (kyr) for the Kibish Omo I3,6,7, and around 160-155 kyr for the Herto hominins5,8. However, the stratigraphic relationships and tephra correlations that underpin these estimates have been challenged6,8. Here we report geochemical analyses that link the Kamoya's Hominid Site (KHS) Tuff9, which conclusively overlies the member of the Omo-Kibish Formation that contains Omo I, with a major explosive eruption of Shala volcano in the Main Ethiopian Rift. By dating the proximal deposits of this eruption, we obtain a new minimum age for the Omo fossils of 233 ± 22 kyr. Contrary to previous arguments6,8, we also show that the KHS Tuff does not correlate with another widespread tephra layer, the Waidedo Vitric Tuff, and therefore cannot anchor a minimum age for the Herto fossils. Shifting the age of the oldest known Homo sapiens fossils in eastern Africa to before around 200 thousand years ago is consistent with independent evidence for greater antiquity of the modern human lineage10.

The nutritional quality of cereals varies geospatially in Ethiopia and Malawi.

Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) remain widespread among people in sub-Saharan Africa1-5, where access to sufficient food from plant and animal sources that is rich in micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) is limited due to socioeconomic and geographical reasons4-6. Here we report the micronutrient composition (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc) of staple cereal grains for most of the cereal production areas in Ethiopia and Malawi. We show that there is geospatial variation in the composition of micronutrients that is nutritionally important at subnational scales. Soil and environmental covariates of grain micronutrient concentrations included soil pH, soil organic matter, temperature, rainfall and topography, which were specific to micronutrient and crop type. For rural households consuming locally sourced food-including many smallholder farming communities-the location of residence can be the largest influencing factor in determining the dietary intake of micronutrients from cereals. Positive relationships between the concentration of selenium in grain and biomarkers of selenium dietary status occur in both countries. Surveillance of MNDs on the basis of biomarkers of status and dietary intakes from national- and regional-scale food-composition data1-7 could be improved using subnational data on the composition of grain micronutrients. Beyond dietary diversification, interventions to alleviate MNDs, such as food fortification8,9 and biofortification to increase the micronutrient concentrations in crops10,11, should account for geographical effects that can be larger in magnitude than intervention outcomes.

How poverty is measured impacts who gets classified as impoverished.

We test whether the classification of households into poverty categories is meaningfully influenced by the poverty measurement approach that is employed. These classification techniques are widely used by governments, non-profit organizations, and development agencies for policy design and implementation. Using primary data collected in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Uganda, we find almost no agreement in how four commonly used approaches rank 16,150 households in terms of poverty status. This result holds for each country, for urban and rural households, and across the entire socio-economic distribution. Households' poverty rankings differ by an entire quartile on average. Conclusions about progress toward poverty alleviation goals may depend in large part on how poverty is measured.

On the verge of domestication: Early use of C4 plants in the Horn of Africa.

The earliest evidence of agriculture in the Horn of Africa dates to the Pre-Aksumite period (ca. 1600 BCE). Domesticated C3 cereals are considered to have been introduced from the Near East, whereas the origin (local or not) and time of domestication of various African C4 species such as sorghum, finger millet, or t'ef remain unknown. In this paper, we present the results of the analysis of microbotanical residues (starch and phytoliths) from grinding stones recovered from two archaeological sites in northeastern Tigrai (Ethiopia), namely Mezber and Ona Adi. Together, both sites cover a time period that encompasses the earliest evidence of agriculture in the region (ca. 1600 BCE) to the fall of the Kingdom of Aksum (ca. 700 CE). Our data indicate that these communities featured complex mixed economies which included the consumption of both domestic and wild plant products since the Initial Pre-Aksumite Phase (ca. 1600 to 900 BCE), including C3 crops and legumes, but also C4 cereals and geophytes. These new data expand the record of C4 plant use in the Horn of Africa to over 1,000 y. It also represents the first evidence for the consumption of starchy products in the region. These results have parallels in the wider northeastern African region where complex food systems have been documented. Altogether, our data represent a significant challenge to our current knowledge of Pre-Aksumite and Aksumite economies, forcing us to rethink the way we define these cultural horizons.

Age and context of mid-Pliocene hominin cranium from Woranso-Mille, Ethiopia.

A fossil hominin cranium was discovered in mid-Pliocene deltaic strata in the Godaya Valley of the northwestern Woranso-Mille study area in Ethiopia. Here we show that analyses of chemically correlated volcanic layers and the palaeomagnetic stratigraphy, combined with Bayesian modelling of dated tuffs, yield an age range of 3.804 ± 0.013 to 3.777 ± 0.014 million years old (mean ± 1σ) for the deltaic strata and the fossils that they contain. We also document deposits of a perennial lake beneath the deltaic sequence. Mammalian fossils associated with the cranium represent taxa that were widespread at the time and data from botanical remains indicate that the vegetation in the lake and delta catchment was predominantly dry shrubland with varying proportions of grassland, wetland and riparian forest. In addition, we report high rates of sediment accumulation and depositional features that are typical of a steep topographic relief and differ from younger Woranso-Mille fossil localities, reflecting the influence of active rift processes on the palaeolandscape.

A 3.8-million-year-old hominin cranium from Woranso-Mille, Ethiopia.

The cranial morphology of the earliest known hominins in the genus Australopithecus remains unclear. The oldest species in this genus (Australopithecus anamensis, specimens of which have been dated to 4.2-3.9 million years ago) is known primarily from jaws and teeth, whereas younger species (dated to 3.5-2.0 million years ago) are typically represented by multiple skulls. Here we describe a nearly complete hominin cranium from Woranso-Mille (Ethiopia) that we date to 3.8 million years ago. We assign this cranium to A. anamensis on the basis of the taxonomically and phylogenetically informative morphology of the canine, maxilla and temporal bone. This specimen thus provides the first glimpse of the entire craniofacial morphology of the earliest known members of the genus Australopithecus. We further demonstrate that A. anamensis and Australopithecus afarensis differ more than previously recognized and that these two species overlapped for at least 100,000 years-contradicting the widely accepted hypothesis of anagenesis.

Ecology, evolution, and conservation of Ethiopia's biodiversity.

Ethiopia is home to one of the richest and most unique assemblages of fauna and flora on the African continent. Contained within its borders are two major centers of endemism, the mesic Roof of Africa (also known as the Ethiopian Highlands) and the arid Horn of Africa, resulting from the country's varied topography and consequent geographic isolation. These centers of endemism are crucial to global conservation as evidenced by their classification within the Eastern Afromontane and Horn of Africa biodiversity hotspots, respectively. Ethiopia's diverse ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain are increasingly threatened by climate change and the growing impacts of Africa's second largest human and largest livestock populations. In this paper, we focus on several key areas of recent and ongoing research on Ethiopian biodiversity that have broadened our understanding of nature and its conservation in Africa. Topics explored include the behavioral ecology of Ethiopia's large social mammals, the ecology and conservation of its unique coffee forests, and Ethiopian approaches to community conservation, fortress conservation, and nature-based solutions. We also highlight the increasing prominence of Ethiopian scientists in studies of the country's biodiversity in recent decades. We suggest promising avenues for future research in evolutionary biology, ecology, systematics, and conservation in Ethiopia and discuss how recent and ongoing work in Ethiopia is helping us better understand and conserve nature in the human-dominated landscapes of Africa and other tropical regions today.

Endocranial ontogeny and evolution in early Homo sapiens: The evidence from Herto, Ethiopia.

Fossils and artifacts from Herto, Ethiopia, include the most complete child and adult crania of early Homo sapiens. The endocranial cavities of the Herto individuals show that by 160,000 y ago, brain size, inferred from endocranial size, was similar to that seen in modern human populations. However, endocranial shape differed from ours. This gave rise to the hypothesis that the brain itself evolved substantially during the past ∼200,000 y, possibly in tandem with the transition from Middle to Upper Paleolithic techno-cultures. However, it remains unclear whether evolutionary changes in endocranial shape mostly reflect changes in brain morphology rather than changes related to interaction with maxillofacial morphology. To discriminate between these effects, we make use of the ontogenetic fact that brain growth nearly ceases by the time the first permanent molars fully erupt, but the face and cranial base continue to grow until adulthood. Here we use morphometric data derived from digitally restored immature and adult H. sapiens fossils from Herto, Qafzeh, and Skhul (HQS) to track endocranial development in early H. sapiens. Until the completion of brain growth, endocasts of HQS children were similar in shape to those of modern human children. The similarly shaped endocasts of fossil and modern children indicate that our brains did not evolve substantially over the past 200,000 y. Differences between the endocranial shapes of modern and fossil H. sapiens adults developed only with continuing facial and basicranial growth, possibly reflecting substantial differences in masticatory and/or respiratory function.

Copy Number Variations of Plasmodium vivax DBP1, EBP/DBP2, and RBP2b in Ethiopians Who Are Duffy Positive and Duffy Negative.

Recent evidence challenges the belief that individuals who are Duffy-negative are resistant to Plasmodium vivax due to lacking the Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines. Erythrocyte-binding protein (EBP/DBP2) has shown moderate binding to Duffy-negative erythrocytes in vitro. Reticulocyte-binding protein 2b (RBP2b) interactions with transferrin receptor 1 suggest involvement in Duffy-negative infections. Gene copy number variations in PvDBP1, PvEBP/DBP2, and PvRBP2b were investigated in Duffy-positive and Duffy-negative P vivax infections from Ethiopia. Among Duffy-positive samples, 34% displayed PvDBP1 duplications (Cambodian type). In Duffy-negative infections, 30% showed duplications, mostly Cambodian type. For PvEBP/DBP2 and PvRBP2b, Duffy-positive samples exhibited higher duplication rates (1-8 copies for PvEBP/DBP2, 46%; 1-5 copies for PvRBP2b, 43%) as compared with Duffy-negative samples (20.8% and 26%, respectively). The range of copy number variations was lower in Duffy-negative infections. Demographic and clinical factors associated with gene multiplications in both Duffy types were explored, enhancing understanding of P vivax evolution in Africans who are Duffy negative.

Plasma Ribonuclease Activity in Antiretroviral Treatment-Naive People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Tuberculosis Disease.

BACKGROUND: The role of ribonucleases in tuberculosis among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PWH) is unknown. We explored ribonuclease activity in plasma from PWH with and without tuberculosis. METHODS: Participants were identified from a cohort of treatment-naive PWH in Ethiopia who had been classified for tuberculosis disease (HIV positive [HIV+]/tuberculosis positive [tuberculosis+] or HIV+/tuberculosis negative [tuberculosis-]). Ribonuclease activity in plasma was investigated by quantification of synthetic spike-in RNAs using sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction and by a specific ribonuclease activity assay. Quantification of ribonuclease 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and T2 proteins was performed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Ribonuclease activity and protein concentrations were correlated with markers of tuberculosis and HIV disease severity and with concentrations of inflammatory mediators. RESULTS: Ribonuclease activity was significantly higher in plasma of HIV+/tuberculosis+ (n = 51) compared with HIV+/tuberculosis- (n = 78), causing reduced stability of synthetic spike-in RNAs. Concentrations of ribonucleases 2, 3, and T2 were also significantly increased in HIV+/tuberculosis+ compared with HIV+/tuberculosis-. Ribonuclease activity was correlated with HIV viral load, and inversely correlated with CD4 cell count, mid-upper arm circumference, and body mass index. Moreover, ribonuclease activity was correlated with concentrations of interleukin 27, procalcitonin and the kynurenine-tryptophan ratio. CONCLUSIONS: PWH with tuberculosis disease have elevated plasma ribonuclease activity, which is also associated with HIV disease severity and systemic inflammation.

Seroreversion to Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 Antigen Among Children in a Hyperendemic Region of Amhara, Ethiopia.

Monitoring trachoma transmission with antibody data requires characterization of decay in IgG to Chlamydia trachomatis antigens. In a 3-year longitudinal cohort in a high-transmission setting, we estimated a median IgG half-life of 3 years and a seroreversion rate of 2.5 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1.6-3.5). Clinical Trials Registration NCT02754583.

Healthcare Seeking Behavior and Disease Perception Toward Cholera and Acute Diarrhea Among Populations Living in Cholera High-Priority Hotspots in Shashemene, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare seeking behavior (HSB) and community perception on cholera can influence its management. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to generate evidence on cholera associated HSB and disease perception in populations living in cholera hotspots in Ethiopia. METHODS: A total of 870 randomly selected households (HHs) in Shashemene Town (ST) and Shashemene Woreda (SW) participated in our survey in January 2022. RESULTS: Predominant HHs (91.0%; 792/870) responded "primary health center" as the nearest healthcare facility (HCF). Around 57.4% (247/430) of ST HHs traveled <30 minutes to the nearest HCF. In SW, 60.2% (265/440) of HHs travelled over 30 minutes and 25.9% (114/440) over 4 km. Two-thirds of all HHs paid

Coverage of Two-Dose Preemptive Cholera Mass Vaccination Campaign in High-Priority Hotspots in Shashemene, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Cholera is a public health priority in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Cholera Plan elaborates a multi-year scheme of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) use. Aligned with this, a preemptive OCV campaign was conducted under our Ethiopia Cholera Control and Prevention project. Here, we present the OCV vaccination outcomes. METHOD: Cholera high-priority hotspots in the Oromia Region, Shashemene Town (ST) and Shashemene Woreda (SW), were selected. Four kebelles (Abosto, Alelu, Arada, and Awasho) in ST and 4 clusters (Faji Gole, Harabate, Toga, and Chabi) in SW were study sites with OCV areas nested within. A total of 40 000 and 60 000 people in ST and SW, respectively, were targeted for a 2-dose OCV (Euvichol-Plus) campaign in 11-15 May (first round [R1]) and 27-31 May (second round [R2]) 2022. Daily administrative OCV coverage and a coverage survey in 277 randomly selected households were conducted. RESULTS: The administrative OCV coverage was high: 102.0% for R1 and 100.5% for R2 in ST and 99.1% (R1) and 100.0% (R1) in SW. The coverage survey showed 78.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.1-82.9) of household members with 2-dose OCV and 16.8% (95% CI: 12.4-21.3) with no OCV in ST; and 83.1% (95% CI: 79.6-86.5) with 2-dose OCV and 11.8% (95% CI: 8.8-14.8) with no OCV in SW. The 2-dose coverages in 1-4-, 5-14-, and ≥15-year age groups were 88.3% (95% CI: 70.6-96.1), 88.9% (95% CI: 82.1-95.7), and 71.3% (95% CI: 64.2-78.3), respectively, in ST and 78.2% (95% CI: 68.8-87.7), 91.0% (95% CI: 86.6-95.3), and 78.7% (95% CI: 73.2-84.1) in SW. CONCLUSIONS: High 2-dose OCV coverage was achieved. Cholera surveillance is needed to assess the vaccine impact and effectiveness.

Ethiopia National Cholera Elimination Plan 2022-2028: Experiences, Challenges, and the Way Forward.

Cholera remains a significant public health concern in Ethiopia. More than 15.9 million Ethiopians, constituting 15% of the total population, live in areas with a history of recurrent cholera outbreaks. The last 9 years of national cholera surveillance data show the country has been experiencing cholera outbreaks every year. The current cholera outbreak, starting in August 2022, has affected the entire country, with 841 reported cases and a 3.13% case fatality rate (CFR) in 2022, and >30 000 cases with nearly a 1.4% CFR in 2023. In line with "Ending Cholera-A Global Roadmap to 2030," the government of Ethiopia is committed to eliminate cholera in the country and has prepared its "National Cholera Elimination Plan (NCP): 2022-2028" with aims to achieve zero local transmission in cholera hotspot areas by 2028 and 90% fatality reduction from the recent (2020-2022) average of 1.8% CFR. The plan is multisectoral, has a clear coordination platform, contains all interventions with in-depth situational analysis, is concordant with existing plans and strategies, and is cascaded at the regional level and implemented with existing government and public structures. Nationwide, total 118 cholera hotspot woredas (districts) were identified, and a comprehensive situation analysis of the existing cholera outbreak response capacity was assessed. This multisectoral and multiyear NCP has forecasted around US$404 million budget estimates with >90% allocated to improving the country's water, sanitation, and hygiene (US$222 million; 55% of total NCP budget) and case management (US$149 million; 37%). The cholera vaccination strategy included in the NCP exhibited a 5-year oral cholera vaccine (OCV) introduction plan with 2 doses (30 604 889 doses) and single dose (3 031 266 doses) in selected cholera hotspot areas. However, its implementation is challenged due to a lack of financial support, inability to get the requested vaccine for targeted hotspot woredas (due to the current shortage of doses in the OCV global stockpile), recurrent cholera outbreaks, and high humanitarian needs in the country. It is recommended to have a sustainable financial mechanism to support implementation, follow the requested vaccine doses, and reorganize the planned coordination platform to foster the implementation.

Retrospective Analysis of Cholera/Acute Watery Diarrhea Outbreaks in Ethiopia From 2001 To 2023: Incidence, Case Fatality Rate, and Seasonal and Multiyear Epidemic Patterns.

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian government has developed the multisectoral cholera elimination plan (NCP) with an aim of reducing cholera incidence and case fatality rate (CFR). To better understand and monitor the progress of this plan, a comprehensive review of national cholera epidemiology is needed. METHODS: Reported data on cholera/acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases in the past 20 years were extracted from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and World Health Organization databases. Descriptive statistics, Pearson χ2, and logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: From January 2001 to November 2023, a total of 215 205 cholera/AWD cases, 2355 deaths with a cumulative CFR of 1.10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.095), and a mean annual incidence rate of 8.9/100 000 (95% CI, 6.5-11.3) were reported. Two major upsurges of cholera epidemics were found in the last two decades with mean attack rate (AR) of 20.57/100 000 in 2006-2010 and 14.83/100 000 in 2016-2020. Another resurgence of outbreaks occured in 2021-2023 (mean AR, 8.63/100 000). In 2015-2023, 54.0% (53 990/99 945) of cases were aged 15-44 years. National cholera CFR (3.13% [95% CI: 2.1-4.5]) was the highest in 2022. The 2015-2023 cumulative cholera CFR was different across regions: Benishangul Gumuz (6.07%), Gambela (1.89%), Sidama (1.42%), Southern Nation, Nationalities, and Peoples' (1.34%), Oromia (1.10%), and Amhara (1.09%). Cholera/AWD patients in older adults (≥45 years), severe dehydration, peak rainy season (June-August), and outpatients were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera has been a public health problem in Ethiopia with case fatalities still above the global target. Case management needs to be improved particularly in outpatients and older populations. Outbreak preparedness should be rolled out well in advance of the typical rainy seasons. Significant investments are essential to advance the cholera surveillance system at healthcare setting and community level. Underlying factors of cholera deaths per areas should be further investigated to guide appropriate interventions to meet the NCP target by 2028.

Comprehensive Review on the Use of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) in Ethiopia: 2019 to 2023.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia necessitate frequent mass oral cholera vaccine (OCV) campaigns. Despite this, there is a notable absence of a comprehensive summary of these campaigns. Understanding national OCV vaccination history is essential to design appropriate and effective cholera control strategies. Here, we aimed to retrospectively review all OCV vaccination campaigns conducted across Ethiopia between 2019 and 2023. METHODS: The OCV request records from 2019 to October 2023 and vaccination campaign reports for the period from 2019 to December 2023 were retrospectively accessed from the Ethiopia Public Health Institute (EPHI) database. Descriptive analysis was conducted using the retrospective data collected. RESULTS: From 2019 to October 2023, Ethiopian government requested 32 044 576 OCV doses (31 899 576 doses to global stockpile; 145 000 doses to outside of stockpile). Around 66.3% of requested doses were approved; of which 90.4% were received. Fifteen OCV campaigns (12 reactive and 3 pre-emptive) were conducted, including five two-dose campaigns with varying dose intervals and single-dose campaigns partially in 2019 and entirely in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Overall vaccine administrative coverage was high; except for Tigray region (41.8% in the 1st round; 2nd round didn't occur). The vaccine administrative coverage records were documented, but no OCV coverage survey data was available. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first comprehensive review of OCV campaigns in Ethiopia spanning the last five years. Its findings offer valuable insights into informing future cholera control strategies, underscoring the importance of monitoring and evaluation despite resource constraints. Addressing the limitations in coverage survey data availability is crucial for enhancing the efficacy of future campaigns.

Chronic High-Level Parasitemia in HIV-Infected Individuals With or Without Visceral Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area in Northwest Ethiopia: Potential Superspreaders?

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) with recurrent visceral leishmaniasis (VL) could potentially drive Leishmania transmission in areas with anthroponotic transmission such as East Africa, but studies are lacking. Leishmania parasitemia has been used as proxy for infectiousness. METHODS: This study is nested within the Predicting Visceral Leishmaniasis in HIV-InfectedPatients (PreLeisH) prospective cohort study, following 490 PWH free of VL at enrollment for up to 24-37 months in northwest Ethiopia. Blood Leishmania polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was done systematically. This case series reports on 10 PWH with chronic VL (≥3 VL episodes during follow-up) for up to 37 months, and 3 individuals with asymptomatic Leishmania infection for up to 24 months. RESULTS: All 10 chronic VL cases were male, on antiretroviral treatment, with 0-11 relapses before enrollment. Median baseline CD4 count was 82 cells/µL. They displayed 3-6 VL treatment episodes over a period up to 37 months. Leishmania blood PCR levels were strongly positive for almost the entire follow-up (median cycle threshold value, 26 [interquartile range, 23-30]), including during periods between VL treatment. Additionally, we describe 3 PWH with asymptomatic Leishmania infection and without VL history, with equally strong Leishmania parasitemia over a period of up to 24 months without developing VL. All were on antiretroviral treatment at enrollment, with baseline CD4 counts ranging from 78 to 350 cells/µL. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first data on chronic parasitemia in PWH from Leishmania donovani-endemic areas. PWH with asymptomatic and symptomatic Leishmania infection could potentially be highly infectious and constitute Leishmania superspreaders. Xenodiagnosis studies are required to confirm infectiousness.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS: Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS: Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

Dissecting Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) to Assess Risk Factors for Cholera in Shashemene, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks have afflicted Ethiopia, with nearly 100 000 cases and 1030 deaths reported from 2015 to 2023, emphasizing the critical need to understand water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional household (HH) survey among 870 HHs in Shashemene Town and Shashemene Woreda, alongside extracting retrospective cholera case data from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute database. Relationships between WaSH and sociodemographic/economic-levels of HHs were examined. WaSH status and cholera attack rates (ARs) were described at kebele-level using geospatial mapping, and their association was statistically analyzed. RESULTS: Access to basic drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities was limited, with 67.5% (95% confidence interval, 64.4-70.6), 73.4% (70.3-76.3), and 30.3% (27.3-33.3) of HHs having access, respectively. Better WaSH practices were associated with urban residence (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7, [95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.7]), higher educational levels (2.7 [1.2-5.8]), and wealth (2.5 [1.6-4.0]). The association between cholera ARs and at least basic WaSH status was not statistically significant (multiple R2 = 0.13; P = .36), although localized effects were suggested for sanitation (Moran I = 0.22; P = .024). CONCLUSIONS: Addressing gaps in WaSH access and hygiene practices is crucial for reducing cholera risk. Further analyses with meaningful covariates and increased sample sizes are necessary to understand the association between cholera AR and specific WaSH components.