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1.
Nature ; 629(8013): 837-842, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38693262

ABSTRACT

The record of past human adaptations provides crucial lessons for guiding responses to crises in the future1-3. To date, there have been no systematic global comparisons of humans' ability to absorb and recover from disturbances through time4,5. Here we synthesized resilience across a broad sample of prehistoric population time-frequency data, spanning 30,000 years of human history. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of population decline show that frequent disturbances enhance a population's capacity to resist and recover from later downturns. Land-use patterns are important mediators of the strength of this positive association: farming and herding societies are more vulnerable but also more resilient overall. The results show that important trade-offs exist when adopting new or alternative land-use strategies.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Population Dynamics , Social Change , Agriculture/history , Agriculture/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Sectional Studies , History, Ancient , Longitudinal Studies , Population Dynamics/history , Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data , Resilience, Psychological , Social Change/history , Humans
2.
Nature ; 626(8001): 1049-1055, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38355800

ABSTRACT

Each year, people spend less time reading and more time viewing images1, which are proliferating online2-4. Images from platforms such as Google and Wikipedia are downloaded by millions every day2,5,6, and millions more are interacting through social media, such as Instagram and TikTok, that primarily consist of exchanging visual content. In parallel, news agencies and digital advertisers are increasingly capturing attention online through the use of images7,8, which people process more quickly, implicitly and memorably than text9-12. Here we show that the rise of images online significantly exacerbates gender bias, both in its statistical prevalence and its psychological impact. We examine the gender associations of 3,495 social categories (such as 'nurse' or 'banker') in more than one million images from Google, Wikipedia and Internet Movie Database (IMDb), and in billions of words from these platforms. We find that gender bias is consistently more prevalent in images than text for both female- and male-typed categories. We also show that the documented underrepresentation of women online13-18 is substantially worse in images than in text, public opinion and US census data. Finally, we conducted a nationally representative, preregistered experiment that shows that googling for images rather than textual descriptions of occupations amplifies gender bias in participants' beliefs. Addressing the societal effect of this large-scale shift towards visual communication will be essential for developing a fair and inclusive future for the internet.


Subject(s)
Occupations , Photography , Sexism , Social Media , Female , Humans , Male , Occupations/statistics & numerical data , Photography/statistics & numerical data , Photography/trends , Public Opinion , Sexism/prevention & control , Sexism/psychology , Sexism/statistics & numerical data , Sexism/trends , Social Media/statistics & numerical data , Social Change
3.
Nature ; 595(7866): 189-196, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34194043

ABSTRACT

Science rarely proceeds beyond what scientists can observe and measure, and sometimes what can be observed proceeds far ahead of scientific understanding. The twenty-first century offers such a moment in the study of human societies. A vastly larger share of behaviours is observed today than would have been imaginable at the close of the twentieth century. Our interpersonal communication, our movements and many of our everyday actions, are all potentially accessible for scientific research; sometimes through purposive instrumentation for scientific objectives (for example, satellite imagery), but far more often these objectives are, literally, an afterthought (for example, Twitter data streams). Here we evaluate the potential of this massive instrumentation-the creation of techniques for the structured representation and quantification-of human behaviour through the lens of scientific measurement and its principles. In particular, we focus on the question of how we extract scientific meaning from data that often were not created for such purposes. These data present conceptual, computational and ethical challenges that require a rejuvenation of our scientific theories to keep up with the rapidly changing social realities and our capacities to capture them. We require, in other words, new approaches to manage, use and analyse data.


Subject(s)
Social Change , Social Conditions/statistics & numerical data , Social Sciences/methods , Datasets as Topic , History, 21st Century , Humans , Social Sciences/ethics
4.
Nature ; 591(7851): 539-550, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33762769

ABSTRACT

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.


Subject(s)
Civilization , Climate Change/statistics & numerical data , Research , Social Change , Animals , Civilization/history , Climate Change/economics , Climate Change/history , Droughts , Energy-Generating Resources , History, 15th Century , History, 16th Century , History, 17th Century , History, 18th Century , History, 19th Century , History, 20th Century , History, 21st Century , History, Ancient , History, Medieval , Human Migration , Humans , Politics , Rain , Research/trends , Social Change/history , Temperature
5.
Nature ; 600(7888): 264-268, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34853472

ABSTRACT

Mass selection into groups of like-minded individuals may be fragmenting and polarizing online society, particularly with respect to partisan differences1-4. However, our ability to measure the social makeup of online communities and in turn, to understand the social organization of online platforms, is limited by the pseudonymous, unstructured and large-scale nature of digital discussion. Here we develop a neural-embedding methodology to quantify the positioning of online communities along social dimensions by leveraging large-scale patterns of aggregate behaviour. Applying our methodology to 5.1 billion comments made in 10,000 communities over 14 years on Reddit, we measure how the macroscale community structure is organized with respect to age, gender and US political partisanship. Examining political content, we find that Reddit underwent a significant polarization event around the 2016 US presidential election. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, individual-level polarization is rare; the system-level shift in 2016 was disproportionately driven by the arrival of new users. Political polarization on Reddit is unrelated to previous activity on the platform and is instead temporally aligned with external events. We also observe a stark ideological asymmetry, with the sharp increase in polarization in 2016 being entirely attributable to changes in right-wing activity. This methodology is broadly applicable to the study of online interaction, and our findings have implications for the design of online platforms, understanding the social contexts of online behaviour, and quantifying the dynamics and mechanisms of online polarization.


Subject(s)
Group Processes , Individuality , Politics , Social Media/organization & administration , Sociology/methods , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cluster Analysis , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Residence Characteristics , Sex Factors , Social Change , Sociological Factors , United States , Young Adult
6.
Nature ; 586(7831): 683-692, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33116284

ABSTRACT

Starting with the launch of the Human Genome Project three decades ago, and continuing after its completion in 2003, genomics has progressively come to have a central and catalytic role in basic and translational research. In addition, studies increasingly demonstrate how genomic information can be effectively used in clinical care. In the future, the anticipated advances in technology development, biological insights, and clinical applications (among others) will lead to more widespread integration of genomics into almost all areas of biomedical research, the adoption of genomics into mainstream medical and public-health practices, and an increasing relevance of genomics for everyday life. On behalf of the research community, the National Human Genome Research Institute recently completed a multi-year process of strategic engagement to identify future research priorities and opportunities in human genomics, with an emphasis on health applications. Here we describe the highest-priority elements envisioned for the cutting-edge of human genomics going forward-that is, at 'The Forefront of Genomics'.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Research/trends , Genome, Human/genetics , Genomics/trends , Public Health/standards , Translational Research, Biomedical/trends , Biomedical Research/economics , COVID-19/genetics , Genomics/economics , Humans , National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.)/economics , Social Change , Translational Research, Biomedical/economics , United States
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(43): e2216693120, 2023 Oct 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37844239

ABSTRACT

The need for rapid and ambitious conservation and restoration is widely acknowledged, yet concern exists that the widespread reallocation of land to nature would disproportionately affect the world's poor. Conservation and restoration may limit nutrition and livelihood options and thus negatively affect social development objectives. Although much research looks into global-scale scenarios and planning of conservation and restoration, spatial evaluations of these trade-offs in terms of equity remain limited. We fill this gap by identifying areas where conservation or restoration under different future scenarios and prioritization maps expand nature into landscapes that likely support land-dependent communities in their local food security. By contrasting the expansion of nature into areas supporting land-dependent communities vs. places where the food system is supported by regional to global markets, we highlight the need for disaggregated indicators that reflect the diversity of human land-use needs in order to identify more equitable pathways. Conservation prioritizations were found to result in more equitable land-use outcomes than the land-use outcomes of widely used socioeconomic scenarios. Accounting for differentiated social impacts in model-based conservation and restoration planning and global scale scenario assessment can help achieve a more inclusive transition to sustainability as well as reduce barriers to meaningful change.


Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Conservation of Natural Resources , Humans , Social Change , Ecosystem
16.
Nature ; 575(7781): 119-129, 2019 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31695203

ABSTRACT

Vaccination against infectious diseases has changed the future of the human species, saving millions of lives every year, both children and adults, and providing major benefits to society as a whole. Here we show, however, that national and sub-national coverage of vaccination varies greatly and major unmet needs persist. Although scientific progress opens exciting perspectives in terms of new vaccines, the pathway from discovery to sustainable implementation can be long and difficult, from the financing, development and licensing to programme implementation and public acceptance. Immunization is one of the best investments in health and should remain a priority for research, industry, public health and society.


Subject(s)
Drug Development/economics , Vaccination/trends , Vaccines/immunology , Vaccines/supply & distribution , Animals , Humans , Mortality , Philippines/epidemiology , Social Change , Vaccination/economics , Vaccines/economics
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(11): e2107260119, 2022 03 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35254890

ABSTRACT

SignificancePeople change when they think others are changing, but people misperceive others' changes. These misperceptions may bedevil people's efforts to understand and change their social worlds, distort the democratic process, and turn imaginary trends into real ones. For example, participants believed that Americans increasingly want to limit immigration, which they said justifies tighter borders. However, participants also said that limiting immigration would not be right if attitudes had shifted against it--which is what actually occurred. Our findings suggest that the national discourse around contentious social issues, policies resulting from that discourse, and perhaps the opinions that drive discourse in the first place would be very different if people better understood how attitudes have and have not changed.


Subject(s)
Attitude , Perception , Social Change , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Time Factors , United States
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(7)2022 02 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35131937

ABSTRACT

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits-"win-wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.


Subject(s)
Agriculture , Conservation of Natural Resources/methods , Ecosystem , Humans , Renewable Energy , Social Change
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(10): e2117320119, 2022 03 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35239433

ABSTRACT

SignificanceThis study uses large-scale news media and social media data to show that nationwide Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests occur concurrently with sharp increases in public attention to components of the BLM agenda. We also show that attention to BLM and related concepts is not limited to these brief periods of protest but is sustained after protest has ceased. This suggests that protest events incited a change in public awareness of BLM's vision of social change and the dissemination of antiracist ideas into popular discourse.


Subject(s)
Black or African American , Public Opinion , Racism , Social Change , Humans , Social Media , United States
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