Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design.

Many applications of machine-learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, a data-driven approach for designing proteins is to train a regression model to predict the fitness of protein sequences and then use it to propose new sequences believed to exhibit greater fitness than observed in the training data. Since validating designed sequences in the wet laboratory is typically costly, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in the model's predictions. This is challenging because of a characteristic type of distribution shift between the training and test data that arises in the design setting-one in which the training and test data are statistically dependent, as the latter is chosen based on the former. Consequently, the model's error on the test data-that is, the designed sequences-has an unknown and possibly complex relationship with its error on the training data. We introduce a method to construct confidence sets for predictions in such settings, which account for the dependence between the training and test data. The confidence sets we construct have finite-sample guarantees that hold for any regression model, even when it is used to choose the test-time input distribution. As a motivating use case, we use real datasets to demonstrate how our method quantifies uncertainty for the predicted fitness of designed proteins and can therefore be used to select design algorithms that achieve acceptable tradeoffs between high predicted fitness and low predictive uncertainty.

Prediction-powered inference.

Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing provably valid confidence intervals for quantities such as means, quantiles, and linear and logistic regression coefficients without making any assumptions about the machine-learning algorithm that supplies the predictions. Furthermore, more accurate predictions translate to smaller confidence intervals. Prediction-powered inference could enable researchers to draw valid and more data-efficient conclusions using machine learning. The benefits of prediction-powered inference were demonstrated with datasets from proteomics, astronomy, genomics, remote sensing, census analysis, and ecology.

Event-Based Near-Eye Gaze Tracking Beyond 10,000 Hz.

The cameras in modern gaze-tracking systems suffer from fundamental bandwidth and power limitations, constraining data acquisition speed to 300 Hz realistically. This obstructs the use of mobile eye trackers to perform, e.g., low latency predictive rendering, or to study quick and subtle eye motions like microsaccades using head-mounted devices in the wild. Here, we propose a hybrid frame-event-based near-eye gaze tracking system offering update rates beyond 10,000 Hz with an accuracy that matches that of high-end desktop-mounted commercial trackers when evaluated in the same conditions. Our system, previewed in Figure 1, builds on emerging event cameras that simultaneously acquire regularly sampled frames and adaptively sampled events. We develop an online 2D pupil fitting method that updates a parametric model every one or few events. Moreover, we propose a polynomial regressor for estimating the point of gaze from the parametric pupil model in real time. Using the first event-based gaze dataset, we demonstrate that our system achieves accuracies of 0.45°-1.75° for fields of view from 45° to 98°. With this technology, we hope to enable a new generation of ultra-low-latency gaze-contingent rendering and display techniques for virtual and augmented reality.