Acute kidney injury in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis treated with anakinra plus zinc or prednisone.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In a recent trial, patients with severe alcohol-associated hepatitis treated with anakinra plus zinc (A+Z) had lower survival and higher acute kidney injury (AKI) rates versus prednisone (PRED). We characterize the clinical factors and potential mechanisms associated with AKI development in that trial. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Data from 147 participants in a multicenter randomized clinical trial (74 A+Z, 73 PRED) were analyzed. AKI, AKI phenotypes, and kidney injury biomarkers were compared between participants who did/did not develop AKI in the 2 treatment arms. Multivariable competing risk analyses were performed to identify baseline risk factors for incident AKI, with death treated as a competing event. Risk factors considered were age, sex, mean arterial pressure, white blood cell count, albumin, MELD, ascites, HE, and treatment arm. At baseline, no participants had AKI; 33% (n=49) developed AKI during follow-up. AKI incidence was higher in A+Z than in PRED (45% [n=33] versus 22% [n=16], p =0.001). AKI phenotypes were similar between the 2 treatment arms ( p =0.361), but peak AKI severity was greater in A+Z than PRED (stage 3 n=21 [63.6%] vs. n=8 [50.0%], p =0.035). At baseline, urine-neutrophil-gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels were similar between participants who developed AKI in both treatment arms ( p =0.319). However, day 7 and 14 urine-neutrophil-gelatinase-associated lipocalin levels were significantly elevated in participants treated with A+Z who developed AKI versus participants treated with PRED who developed AKI ( p =0.002 and 0.032, respectively). On multivariable competing risk analysis, only A+Z was independently associated with incident AKI (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.35, p =0.005). CONCLUSIONS: AKI occurred more frequently and was more severe in participants treated with A+Z. A+Z-treated participants with AKI had higher urine-neutrophil-gelatinase-associated lipocalin, suggesting that A+Z maybe nephrotoxic in patients with severe alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

Variation in intention-to-treat survival by MELD subtypes: all models created for end-stage liver disease are not equal.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Kidney dysfunction is a major determinant of prognosis in patients with decompensated cirrhosis awaiting transplantation. We hypothesized that for identical MELD scores at listing, outcomes before and after liver transplantation may vary if the predominant driver of the MELD score is serum creatinine versus serum bilirubin or INR. METHODS: We evaluated all adult patients registered for liver transplantation (LT) between 2016 - 2020 and excluded patients receiving MELD exceptions or undergoing dual organ transplantation. Using K-Means clustering analysis, we classified each patient as MELD-Br, MELD-INR or MELD-Cr depending on the dominant variable for their MELD score. The primary outcome was intent-to-treat survival, defined as survival within 1 year from listing with or without LT. RESULTS: MELD scores of LT waitlist registrants clustered into 3 subtypes: MELD-Br (n=13,658), MELD-INR (n=13,809), and MELD-Cr (n=12,412). One-year ITT survival was 78% (MELD-Br), 75% (MELD-INR), and 65% (MELD-Cr), p<0.01. ITT survival was lower for each MELD subtype for females compared to males (e.g. MELD Cr 63% females vs 67% males, p<0.0001). MELD-Cr subtype had the highest MELD at listing (MELD Cr 23.4 vs MELD-Br 19.2 vs MELD INR 21.0) and the largest decline in MELD over 3 months (23% vs. 12% vs 21%). In adjusted analyses including MELD Na, MELD-Cr compared to the other subtypes was associated with higher WL mortality (HR 1.339, 95% CI 1.279-1.402) and lower LT rates (HR 0.688, 95% CI 0.664-0.713). CONCLUSIONS: For equivalent listing practices, registrants with MELD-Cr subtype have lower ITT survival. MELD subtype may serve as a more sophisticated variable for dynamic assessment of risk of mortality, to inform models for organ allocation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The MELD score is an excellent predictor of waitlist mortality; however, our work highlights that the driver of a patient's score MELD score matters and particularly those driven by elevated creatinine have a lower 1-year ITT mortality. The 1-year ITT mortality is also lower for women compared to men within the Cr-dominant subtype. These results are important for physicians and patients undergoing LT evaluation as creatinine may serve as a marker of prognosis and even if the creatinine improves the prognosis remains poor, necessitating discussion about alternative pathways for transplant. Our work also highlights that the type of kidney injury matters, in that those AKI were more likely to die or remain on the waitlist compared to those with CKD within the creatinine dominant subtype.

Randomized trial of anakinra plus zinc vs. prednisone for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (SAH) is associated with high 90-day mortality. Glucocorticoid therapy for 28 days improves 30- but not 90-day survival. We assessed the efficacy and safety of a combination of anakinra, an IL-1 antagonist, plus zinc (A+Z) compared to prednisone using the Day-7 Lille score as a stopping rule in patients with SAH. METHODS: In this phase IIb double-blind randomized trial in adults with SAH and MELD scores of 20-35, participants were randomized to receive either daily anakinra 100 mg subcutaneously for 14 days plus daily zinc sulfate 220 mg orally for 90 days, or daily prednisone 40 mg orally for 30 days. Prednisone or prednisone placebo was stopped if Day-7 Lille score was >0.45. All study drugs were stopped for uncontrolled infection or ≥5 point increase in MELD score. The primary endpoint was overall survival at 90 days. RESULTS: Seventy-three participants were randomized to prednisone and 74 to A+Z. The trial was stopped early after a prespecified interim analysis showed prednisone was associated with higher 90-day overall survival (90% vs. 70%; hazard ratio for death = 0.34, 95% CI 0.14-0.83, p = 0.018) and transplant-free survival (88% vs. 64%; hazard ratio for transplant or death = 0.30, 95% CI 0.13-0.69, p = 0.004) than A+Z. Acute kidney injury was more frequent with A+Z (45%) than prednisone (22%) (p = 0.001), but rates of infection were similar (31% in A+Z vs. 27% in prednisone, p = 0.389). CONCLUSIONS: Participants with SAH treated with prednisone using the Day-7 Lille score as a stopping rule had significantly higher overall and transplant-free 90-day survival and lower incidence of acute kidney injury than those treated with A+Z. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: There is no approved treatment for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (SAH). In this double-blind randomized trial, patients with SAH treated with prednisone using the Lille stopping rule on Day 7 had higher 90-day overall and transplant-free survival and lower rates of acute kidney injury compared to patients treated with a combination of anakinra and zinc. The data support continued use of glucocorticoids for patients with SAH, with treatment discontinuation for those with a Lille score >0.45 on Day 7. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04072822.

Association between public health policies on alcohol and worldwide cancer, liver disease and cardiovascular disease outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The long-term impact of alcohol-related public health policies (PHPs) on disease burden is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between alcohol-related PHPs and alcohol-related health consequences. METHODS: We conducted an ecological multi-national study including 169 countries. We collected data on alcohol-related PHPs from the WHO Global Information System of Alcohol and Health 2010. Data on alcohol-related health consequences between 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. We classified PHPs into five items, including criteria for low, moderate, and strong PHP establishment. We estimated an alcohol preparedness index (API) using multiple correspondence analysis (0 lowest and 100 highest establishment). We estimated an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for outcomes according to API using adjusted multilevel generalized linear models with a Poisson family distribution. RESULTS: The median API in the 169 countries was 54 [IQR 34.9-76.8]. The API was inversely associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD) prevalence (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.60; p = 0.010), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) mortality (IRR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.79; p = 0.025), mortality due to neoplasms (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.40; p = 0.002), alcohol-attributable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.02-0.65; p = 0.014), and cardiovascular diseases (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.41; p = 0.002). The highest associations were observed in the Americas, Africa, and Europe. These associations became stronger over time, and AUD prevalence was significantly lower after 2 years, while ALD mortality and alcohol-attributable HCC incidence decreased after 4 and 8 years from baseline API assessment, respectively (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The API is a valuable instrument to quantify the robustness of alcohol-related PHP establishment. Lower AUD prevalence and lower mortality related to ALD, neoplasms, alcohol-attributable HCC, and cardiovascular diseases were observed in countries with a higher API. Our results encourage the development and strengthening of alcohol-related policies worldwide. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We first developed an alcohol preparedness index, an instrument to assess the existence of alcohol-related public policies for each country. We then evaluated the long-term association of the country's alcohol preparedness index in 2010 with the burden of chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, other neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease. The strengthening of alcohol-related public health policies could impact long-term mortality rates from cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and liver disease. These conditions are the main contributors to the global burden of disease related to alcohol use. Over time, this association has not only persisted but also grown stronger. Our results expand the preliminary evidence regarding the importance of public health policies in controlling alcohol-related health consequences.

Acute kidney injury in patients with cirrhosis: Acute Disease Quality Initiative (ADQI) and International Club of Ascites (ICA) joint multidisciplinary consensus meeting.

Patients with cirrhosis are prone to developing acute kidney injury (AKI), a complication associated with a markedly increased in-hospital morbidity and mortality, along with a risk of progression to chronic kidney disease. Whereas patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of developing any phenotype of AKI, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), a specific form of AKI (HRS-AKI) in patients with advanced cirrhosis and ascites, carries an especially high mortality risk. Early recognition of HRS-AKI is crucial since administration of splanchnic vasoconstrictors may reverse the AKI and serve as a bridge to liver transplantation, the only curative option. In 2023, a joint meeting of the International Club of Ascites (ICA) and the Acute Disease Quality Initiative (ADQI) was convened to develop new diagnostic criteria for HRS-AKI, to provide graded recommendations for the work-up, management and post-discharge follow-up of patients with cirrhosis and AKI, and to highlight priorities for further research.

Performance of AI-Enabled Electrocardiogram in the Prediction of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accessible noninvasive screening tools for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are needed. We aim to explore the performance of a deep learning-based artificial intelligence (AI) model in distinguishing the presence of MASLD using 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of adults diagnosed with MASLD in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1996 and 2019. Both cases and controls had ECGs performed within 6 years before and 1 year after study entry. An AI-based ECG model using a convolutional neural network was trained, validated, and tested in 70%, 10%, and 20% of the cohort, respectively. External validation was performed in an independent cohort from Mayo Clinic Enterprise. The primary outcome was the performance of ECG to identify MASLD, alone or when added to clinical parameters. RESULTS: A total of 3468 MASLD cases and 25,407 controls were identified. The AI-ECG model predicted the presence of MASLD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 (original cohort) and 0.62 (validation cohort). The performance was similar or superior to age- and sex-adjusted models using body mass index (AUC, 0.71), presence of diabetes, hypertension or hyperlipidemia (AUC, 0.68), or diabetes alone (AUC, 0.66). The model combining ECG, body mass index, diabetes, and alanine aminotransferase had the highest AUC: 0.76 (original) and 0.72 (validation). CONCLUSIONS: This is a proof-of-concept study that an AI-based ECG model can detect MASLD with a comparable or superior performance as compared with the models using a single clinical parameter but not superior to the combination of clinical parameters. ECG can serve as another screening tool for MASLD in the nonhepatology space.

Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Stool Analysis for Lactulose Titration Assistance in Hepatic Encephalopathy Through a Smartphone Application.

INTRODUCTION: Management of hepatic encephalopathy relies on self-titration of lactulose. In this feasibility trial, we assess an artificial intelligence-enabled tool to guide lactulose use through a smartphone application. METHODS: Subjects with hepatic encephalopathy on lactulose captured bowel movement pictures during lead-in and intervention phases. During the intervention phase, daily feedback on lactulose titration was delivered through the application. Goals were determined according to number of bowel movement and Bristol Stool Scale reports. RESULTS: Subjects completed the study with more than 80% satisfaction. In the lead-in phase, less compliant subjects achieved Bristol Stool Scale goal on 62/111 (56%) of days compared with 107/136 (79%) in the intervention phase ( P = 0.041), while the most compliant subjects showed no difference. Severe/recurrent hepatic encephalopathy group achieved Bristol Stool Scale goal on 80/104 (77%) days in the lead-in phase and 90/110 (82%) days in the intervention phase ( P = NS), compared with 89/143 (62%) days and 86/127 (68%) days in the stable group. DISCUSSION: Dieta application is a promising tool for objective Bowel Movement/Bristol Stool Scale tracking for hepatic encephalopathy and may potentially be used to assist with lactulose titration.

Predictors of Respiratory Failure Development in a Multicenter Cohort of Inpatients With Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis can develop respiratory failure (RF), which is associated with a poor prognosis, but predisposing factors are unclear. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled a multicenter North American cirrhosis inpatient cohort and collected admission and in-hospital data (grading per European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure scoring system, acute kidney injury [AKI], infections [admission/nosocomial], and albumin use) in an era when terlipressin was not available in North America. Multivariable regression to predict RF was performed using only admission day and in-hospital events occurring before RF. RESULTS: A total of 511 patients from 14 sites (median age 57 years, admission model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]-Na 23) were enrolled: RF developed in 15%; AKI occurred in 24%; and 11% developed nosocomial infections (NI). At admission, patients who developed RF had higher MELD-Na, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding/AKI-related admission, and prior infections/ascites. During hospitalization, RF developers had higher NI (especially respiratory), albumin use, and other organ failures. RF was higher in patients receiving albumin (83% vs 59%, P < 0.0001) with increasing doses (269.5 ± 210.5 vs 208.6 ± 186.1 g, P = 0.01) regardless of indication. Admission for AKI, GI bleeding, and high MELD-Na predicted RF. Using all variables, NI (odds ratio [OR] = 4.02, P = 0.0004), GI bleeding (OR = 3.1, P = 0.002), albumin use (OR = 2.93, P = 0.01), AKI (OR = 3.26, P = 0.008), and circulatory failure (OR = 3.73, P = 0.002) were associated with RF risk. DISCUSSION: In a multicenter inpatient cirrhosis study of patients not exposed to terlipressin, 15% of patients developed RF. RF risk was highest in those admitted with AKI, those who had GI bleeding on admission, and those who developed NI and other organ failures or received albumin during their hospital course. Careful volume monitoring and preventing nosocomial respiratory infections and renal or circulatory failures could reduce this risk.

Racial and ethnic disparities in the natural history of alcohol-associated liver disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are influenced by several race and ethnic factors, yet its natural history across the continuum of patients in different stages of the disease is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. adults from 2011 to 2018, using three nationally representative databases to examine potential disparities in relevant outcomes among racial and ethnic groups. Our analysis included logistic and linear regressions, along with competing risk analysis. RESULTS: Black individuals had the highest daily alcohol consumption (12.6 g/day) while Hispanic participants had the largest prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (33.5%). In a multivariable-adjusted model, Hispanic and Asian participants were independently associated with a higher ALD prevalence compared to Non-Hispanic White interviewees (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8 and OR: 1.5 95% CI:1.1-2.0, respectively), while Blacks participants had a lower ALD prevalence (OR: .7 95% CI: .6-.9), and a lower risk of mortality during hospitalization due to ALD (OR: .83 95% CI: .73-.94). Finally, a multivariate competing-risk analysis showed that Hispanic ethnicity had a decreased probability of liver transplantation if waitlisted for ALD (SHR: .7, 95% CI: .6-.8) along with female Asian population (HR: .40, 95% CI: .26-.62). CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for key social and biological health determinants, the Hispanic population showed an increased risk of ALD prevalence, even with lower alcohol consumption. Additionally, Hispanic and Asian female patients had reduced access to liver transplantation compared to other enlisted patients.

Management of Portal Hypertension in the Older Patient.

PURPOSE OF THIS REVIEW: Aging is a process of physiological slowing, reduced regenerative capacity and inability to maintain cellular homeostasis. World Health Organisation declared the commencement of population aging globally, largely attributed to improvement in the healthcare system with early diagnosis and effective clinical management. Liver ages similar to other organs, with reduction in size and blood flow. In this review we aim to evaluate the effect of aging in liver disease. RECENT FINDINGS: Aging causes dysregulation of major carbohydrate, fat and protein metabolism in the liver. Age is a major risk factor for liver fibrosis accelerated by sinusoidal endothelial dysfunction and immunological disharmony. Age plays a major role in patients with liver cirrhosis and influence outcomes in patients with portal hypertension. Transient elastography may be an useful tool in the assessment of portal hypertension. Hepatic structural distortion, increased vascular resistance, state of chronic inflammation, associated comorbidities, lack of physiological reserve in the older population may aggravate portal hypertension in patients with liver cirrhosis and may result in pronounced variceal bleed. Cut-offs for other non-invasive markers of fibrosis may differ in the elderly population. Non-selective beta blockers initiated at lower dose followed by escalation are the first line of therapy in elderly patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension, unless contraindicated. Acute variceal bleed in the elderly cirrhotic patients can be life threatening and may cause rapid exsanguination due to poor reserve and associated comorbidities. Vasoactive drugs may be associated with more adverse reactions. Early endoscopy may be warranted in the elderly patients with acute variceal bleed. Role of TIPS in the elderly cirrhotics discussed. Management of portal hypertension in the older population may pose significant challenges to the treating clinician.

Imaging of Fontan-Associated Liver Disease.

ABSTRACT: The Fontan procedure is the definitive treatment for patients with single-ventricle physiology. Surgical advances have led to a growing number of patients surviving into adulthood. Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD) encompasses a spectrum of pathologic liver changes that occur secondary to altered physiology including congestion, fibrosis, and the development of liver masses. Assessment of FALD is difficult and relies on using imaging alongside of clinical, laboratory, and pathology information. Ultrasound, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging are capable of demonstrating physiologic and hepatic parenchymal abnormalities commonly seen in FALD. Several novel imaging techniques including magnetic resonance elastography are under study for use as biomarkers for FALD progression. Imaging has a central role in detection and characterization of liver masses as benign or malignant. Benign FNH-like masses are commonly encountered; however, these can display atypical features and be mistaken for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Fontan patients are at elevated risk for HCC, which is a feared complication and has a poor prognosis in this population. While imaging screening for HCC is widely advocated, no consensus has been reached regarding an optimal surveillance regimen.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Should patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 receive higher priority for liver transplantation?

In this debate, the authors consider whether patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3) should receive higher liver transplant priority, with reference to the following clinical case: a 62-year-old male with a history of decompensated alcohol-associated cirrhosis, with recurrent ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, and metabolic comorbidities (type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and a BMI of 31 kg/m2). A few days following evaluation for liver transplantation (LT), the patient was admitted to the intensive care unit and placed on mechanical ventilation for neurological failure, FiO2 of 0.3 with a SpO2 of 98%, and started on norepinephrine at 0.62 µg/kg/min. He had been abstinent since the diagnosis of cirrhosis a year prior. Laboratory results at admission were: leukocyte count 12.1 G/L, international normalised ratio 2.1, creatinine 2.4 mg/dl, sodium 133 mmol/L, total bilirubin 7 mg/dl, lactate 5.5 mmol/L, with a MELD-Na score of 31 and a CLIF-C ACLF score of 67. On the 7th day after admission, the patient was placed on the LT waiting list. On the same day, he had massive variceal bleed with hypovolemic shock requiring terlipressin, transfusion of three red blood cell units, and endoscopic band ligation. On day 10, the patient was stabilised with a low dose of norepinephrine 0.03 µg/kg/min, with no new sepsis or bleeding. However, the patient was still intubated for grade 2 hepatic encephalopathy and on renal replacement therapy with a lactate level of 3.1 mmol/L. The patient is currently categorised as having ACLF-3, with five organ failures (liver, kidney, coagulation, circulation, and respiration). Based on the severity of his liver disease and multiorgan failure, the patient is at an exceedingly high risk of death without LT. Is it appropriate to perform LT in such a patient?

Global burden of liver disease: 2023 update.

Liver disease accounts for two million deaths annually and is responsible for 4% of all deaths (1 out of every 25 deaths worldwide); approximately two-thirds of all liver-related deaths occur in men. Deaths are largely attributable to complications of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, with acute hepatitis accounting for a smaller proportion of deaths. The most common causes of cirrhosis worldwide are related to viral hepatitis, alcohol, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Hepatotropic viruses are the aetiological factor in most cases of acute hepatitis, but drug-induced liver injury increasingly accounts for a significant proportion of cases. This iteration of the global burden of liver disease is an update of the 2019 version and focuses mainly on areas where significant new information is available like alcohol-associated liver disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, viral hepatitis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. We also devote a separate section to the burden of liver disease in Africa, an area of the world typically neglected in such documents.

Admission Serum Metabolites and Thyroxine Predict Advanced Hepatic Encephalopathy in a Multicenter Inpatient Cirrhosis Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Grades 3 to 4 hepatic encephalopathy (advanced HE), also termed brain failure, is an organ failure that defines acute-on-chronic liver failure. It is associated with poor outcomes in cirrhosis but cannot be predicted accurately. We aimed to determine the admission metabolomic biomarkers able to predict the development of advanced HE with subsequent validation. METHODS: Prospective inpatient cirrhosis cohorts (multicenter and 2-center validation) without brain failure underwent admission serum collection and inpatient follow-up evaluation. Serum metabolomics were analyzed to predict brain failure on random forest analysis and logistic regression. A separate validation cohort also was recruited. RESULTS: The multicenter cohort included 602 patients, of whom 144 developed brain failure (105 only brain failure) 3 days after admission. Unadjusted random forest analysis showed that higher admission microbially derived metabolites and lower isoleucine, thyroxine, and lysophospholipids were associated with brain failure development (area under the curve, 0.87 all; 0.90 brain failure only). Logistic regression area under the curve with only clinical variables significantly improved with metabolites (95% CI 0.65-0.75; P = .005). Four metabolites that significantly added to brain failure prediction were low thyroxine and maltose and high methyl-4-hydroxybenzoate sulfate and 3-4 dihydroxy butyrate. Thyroxine alone also significantly added to the model (P = .05). The validation cohort including 81 prospectively enrolled patients, of whom 11 developed brain failure. Admission hospital laboratory thyroxine levels predicted brain failure development despite controlling for clinical variables with high specificity. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter inpatient cohort, admission serum metabolites, including thyroxine, predicted advanced HE development independent of clinical factors. Admission low local laboratory thyroxine levels were validated as a predictor of advanced HE development in a separate cohort.

Role of Oral Health, Frailty, and Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy in the Risk of Hospitalization: A Prospective Multi-Center Cohort of Outpatients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hospitalizations are a sentinel event in cirrhosis; however, the changing demographics in patients with cirrhosis require updated hospitalization prediction models. Periodontitis is a risk factor for liver disease and potentially progression. The aim of this study was to determine factors, including poor oral health, associated with 3-month hospitalizations in a multi-center cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: North American Consortium for Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD-3), a new study cohort, recruits outpatients with cirrhosis. Cirrhosis details, demographics, minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE), frailty, and comorbid conditions including oral health were collected. All patients were followed for 3 months for nonelective hospitalizations. Multi-variable models were created for this outcome using demographics, cirrhosis details, oral health, MHE, frailty, and comorbid conditions with K-fold internal validation using 25%/75% split. RESULTS: A total of 442 outpatients (70% men; 37% compensated; Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium, 12; 42% ascites; and 33% prior HE) were included. MHE was found in 70%, frailty in 10%; and both in 8%. In terms of oral health, 15% were edentulous and 10% had prior periodontitis. Regarding 3-month hospitalizations, 14% were admitted for mostly liver-related reasons. These patients were more likely to be decompensated with higher cirrhosis complications, MHE, frailty and periodontitis history. Multi-variable analysis showed prior periodontitis (P = .026), composite MHE + frailty score (P = .0016), ascites (P = .004), prior HE (P = .008), and hydrothorax (P = .004) were associated with admissions using the training and validation subsets. CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporaneous, prospective, multi-center cohort study in outpatients with cirrhosis, poor oral health is significantly associated with 3-month hospitalizations independent of portal hypertensive complications, MHE, and frailty. Potential strategies to reduce hospitalizations should consider oral evaluation in addition to MHE and frailty assessment in practice pathways.

Adding Inflammatory Markers and Refining National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Criteria Improve Diagnostic Accuracy for Alcohol-associated Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although histology is considered the gold standard for diagnosis of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), it is not required for entry into therapeutic studies if patients meet National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) consensus criteria for probable AH. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of NIAAA criteria against liver biopsy and to explore new criteria to enhance diagnostic accuracy for AH. METHODS: A total of 268 consecutive patients with alcohol-related liver disease with liver biopsy were prospectively included: 210 and 58 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. NIAAA criteria and histological diagnosis of alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH) were independently reviewed by clinical investigators and pathologists from Hospital Clínic and Mayo Clinic. Using biopsy-proven ASH as gold standard we determined diagnostic capability of NIAAA criteria and proposed the new improved criteria. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, diagnostic accuracy of NIAAA for AH was modest (72%) due to low sensitivity (63%). Subjects who did not meet NIAAA with ASH at liver biopsy had lower 1-year survival compared with subjects without ASH (70% vs 90%; P < .001). NIAAAm-CRP criteria, created by adding C-reactive protein and modifying the variables of the original NIAAA, had higher sensitivity (70%), accuracy (78%), and specificity (83%). Accuracy was also higher in a sensitivity analysis in severe AH (74% vs 65%). In the validation cohort, NIAAAm-CRP and NIAAA criteria had a sensitivity of 56% vs 52% and an accuracy of 76% vs 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: NIAAA criteria are suboptimal for the diagnosis of AH. The proposed NIAAAm-CRP criteria may improve accuracy for noninvasive diagnosis of AH in patients with alcohol-related liver disease.

Chylous Ascites: Reassessment of Diagnostic Criteria in Patients With Portal Hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: The triglyceride (TG) threshold for diagnosis of chylous ascites in patients with portal hypertension remains uncertain. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of lipoprotein electrophoresis was conducted in 286 consecutive ascites samples. RESULTS: Ascitic TG ≥ 81 mg/dL is 95.4% sensitive and 94.6% specific for chylous ascites diagnosed by the presence of significant chylomicron population. DISCUSSION: The cutoff for chylous ascites diagnosis should be TG ≥ 81 mg/dL.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.