Outbreak detection in Harar town and Kersa district, Ethiopia using phylogenetic analysis and source attribution.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne diseases (FBDs) represent a significant risk to public health, with nearly one in ten people falling ill every year globally. The large incidence of foodborne diseases in African low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) shows the immediate need for action, but there is still far to a robust and efficient outbreak detection system. The detection of outbreak heavily relies on clinical diagnosis, which are often delayed or ignored due to resource limitations and inadequate surveillance systems. METHODS: In total, 68 samples of non-typhoidal Salmonella isolates from human, animal and environmental sources collected between November 2021 and January 2023 were analyzed using sequencing methods to infer phylogenetic relationships between the samples. A source attribution model using a machine-learning logit-boost that predicted the likely source of infection for 20 cases of human salmonellosis was also run and compared with the results of the cluster detection. RESULTS: Three clusters of samples with close relation (SNP difference < 30) were identified as non-typhoidal Salmonella in Harar town and Kersa district, Ethiopia. These three clusters were comprised of isolates from different sources, including at least two human isolates. The isolates within each cluster showed identical serovar and sequence type (ST), with few exceptions in cluster 3. The close proximity of the samples suggested the occurrence of three potential outbreaks of non-typhoidal Salmonella in the region. The results of the source attribution model found that human cases of salmonellosis could primarily be attributed to bovine meat, which the results of the phylogenetic analysis corroborated. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggested the occurrence of three possible outbreaks of non-typhoidal Salmonella in eastern Ethiopia, emphasizing the importance of targeted intervention of food safety protocols in LMICs. It also highlighted the potential of integrated surveillance for detecting outbreak and identifying the most probable source. Source attribution models in combination with other epidemiological methods is recommended as part of a more robust and integrated surveillance system for foodborne diseases.

Etiology-specific incidence and mortality of diarrheal diseases in the African region: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases substantially affect public health impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly in Africa, where previous studies have indicated a lack of comprehensive data. With a growing number of primary studies on enteric infections in Africa, this study aimed to estimate the incidence and mortality of diarrheal pathogens across all ages in Africa in the year 2020. We also explored different methodological assumptions to allow comparison with other approaches. METHODS: Through a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from African LMICs, we estimated the etiology proportions for diarrheal diseases and deaths. We combined the etiology proportions with incidence data collected from a population survey in Africa from 2020 and mortality data from the Global Health Observatory of WHO. RESULTS: We estimated 1,008 billion diarrhea cases (95% UI 447 million-1,4 billion) and 515,031 diarrhea deaths (95% UI 248,983-1,007,641) in the African region in 2020. In children under five, enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) (44,073 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 18,818 - 60,922) and G. lamblia (36,116 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 15,245 - 49,961) were the leading causes of illness. Enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) (155 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 106.5-252.9) and rotavirus (61.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 42.3-100.3) were the primary causes of deaths. For children over five and adults, Salmonella spp. caused the largest number of diarrheal cases in the population of children ≥ 5 and adults (122,090 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 51,833 - 168,822), while rotavirus (16.4 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 4.2-36.7) and enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) (14.6 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 3.9-32.9) causing the most deaths. Geographically, the highest incidence of diarrhea was in Eastern Africa for children under five (114,389 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 34,771 - 172,884) and Central Africa for children over five and adults (117,820 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 75,111-157,584). Diarrheal mortality was highest in Western Africa for both children below five and above (children < 5: 194.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 120-325.4; children ≥ 5 and above: 33.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 12.9-75.1). CONCLUSION: These findings provide new information on the incidence and mortality of sixteen pathogens and highlight the need for surveillance and control of diarrheal infectious diseases in Africa. The cause-specific estimates are crucial for prioritizing diarrheal disease prevention in the region.