Host genetic regulation of human gut microbial structural variation.

Although the impact of host genetics on gut microbial diversity and the abundance of specific taxa is well established1-6, little is known about how host genetics regulates the genetic diversity of gut microorganisms. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of associations between human genetic variation and gut microbial structural variation in 9,015 individuals from four Dutch cohorts. Strikingly, the presence rate of a structural variation segment in Faecalibacterium prausnitzii that harbours an N-acetylgalactosamine (GalNAc) utilization gene cluster is higher in individuals who secrete the type A oligosaccharide antigen terminating in GalNAc, a feature that is jointly determined by human ABO and FUT2 genotypes, and we could replicate this association in a Tanzanian cohort. In vitro experiments demonstrated that GalNAc can be used as the sole carbohydrate source for F. prausnitzii strains that carry the GalNAc-metabolizing pathway. Further in silico and in vitro studies demonstrated that other ABO-associated species can also utilize GalNAc, particularly Collinsella aerofaciens. The GalNAc utilization genes are also associated with the host's cardiometabolic health, particularly in individuals with mucosal A-antigen. Together, the findings of our study demonstrate that genetic associations across the human genome and bacterial metagenome can provide functional insights into the reciprocal host-microbiome relationship.

Environmental factors shaping the gut microbiome in a Dutch population.

The gut microbiome is associated with diverse diseases1-3, but a universal signature of a healthy or unhealthy microbiome has not been identified, and there is a need to understand how genetics, exposome, lifestyle and diet shape the microbiome in health and disease. Here we profiled bacterial composition, function, antibiotic resistance and virulence factors in the gut microbiomes of 8,208 Dutch individuals from a three-generational cohort comprising 2,756 families. We correlated these to 241 host and environmental factors, including physical and mental health, use of medication, diet, socioeconomic factors and childhood and current exposome. We identify that the microbiome is shaped primarily by the environment and cohabitation. Only around 6.6% of taxa are heritable, whereas the variance of around 48.6% of taxa is significantly explained by cohabitation. By identifying 2,856 associations between the microbiome and health, we find that seemingly unrelated diseases share a common microbiome signature that is independent of comorbidities. Furthermore, we identify 7,519 associations between microbiome features and diet, socioeconomics and early life and current exposome, with numerous early-life and current factors being significantly associated with microbiome function and composition. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive overview of gut microbiome and the underlying impact of heritability and exposures that will facilitate future development of microbiome-targeted therapies.

Neoadjuvant Immunotherapy in Locally Advanced Mismatch Repair-Deficient Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR) tumors can be found in 10 to 15% of patients with nonmetastatic colon cancer. In these patients, the efficacy of chemotherapy is limited. The use of neoadjuvant immunotherapy has shown promising results, but data from studies of this approach are limited. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2 study in which patients with nonmetastatic, locally advanced, previously untreated dMMR colon cancer were treated with neoadjuvant nivolumab plus ipilimumab. The two primary end points were safety, defined by timely surgery (i.e., ≤2-week delay of planned surgery owing to treatment-related toxic events), and 3-year disease-free survival. Secondary end points included pathological response and results of genomic analyses. RESULTS: Of 115 enrolled patients, 113 (98%; 97.5% confidence interval [CI], 93 to 100) underwent timely surgery; 2 patients had surgery delayed by more than 2 weeks. Grade 3 or 4 immune-related adverse events occurred in 5 patients (4%), and none of the patients discontinued treatment because of adverse events. Among the 111 patients included in the efficacy analysis, a pathological response was observed in 109 (98%; 95% CI, 94 to 100), including 105 (95%) with a major pathological response (defined as ≤10% residual viable tumor) and 75 (68%) with a pathological complete response (0% residual viable tumor). With a median follow-up of 26 months (range, 9 to 65), no patients have had recurrence of disease. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with locally advanced dMMR colon cancer, neoadjuvant nivolumab plus ipilimumab had an acceptable safety profile and led to a pathological response in a high proportion of patients. (Funded by Bristol Myers Squibb; NICHE-2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03026140.).

Reflecting on Indonesia's young academy movement.

In the past three decades, there has been a rise in young academy movements in the Global North and South. Such movements, in at least Germany and the Netherlands, have been shown to be quite effective in connecting scientific work with society. Likewise, these movements share a common goal of developing interdisciplinary collaboration among young scientists, which contributes to the growth of a nation's-but also global-scientific endeavors. This paper focuses on the young academy movement in the fourth-largest country hosting the biggest Muslim population in the world, which is also the third-most populous democracy: Indonesia. We observe that there has been rising awareness among the young generation of scientists in Indonesia of the need to advocate for the use of sciences in responding to upcoming and current multidimensional crises. Science advocacy can be seen in their peer-based identification of Indonesia's future challenges, encompassing the fundamental areas for scientific inquiry, discovery, and intervention. We focus on the Indonesian Young Academy of Sciences (ALMI) and its network of young scientists. We describe ALMI's science communication practice, specifically SAINS45 and Science for Indonesia's Biodiversity, and how they have been useful for policymakers, media, and school engagements. The article closes with a reflection on future directions for the young academy movement in Indonesia and beyond.

Capturing the fusion of two ancestries and kinship structures in Merovingian Flanders.

The Merovingian period (5th to 8th cc AD) was a time of demographic, socioeconomic, cultural, and political realignment in Western Europe. Here, we report the whole-genome shotgun sequence data of 30 human skeletal remains from a coastal Late Merovingian site of Koksijde (675 to 750 AD), alongside 18 remains from two Early to Late Medieval sites in present-day Flanders, Belgium. We find two distinct ancestries, one shared with Early Medieval England and the Netherlands, while the other, minor component, reflecting likely continental Gaulish ancestry. Kinship analyses identified no large pedigrees characteristic to elite burials revealing instead a high modularity of distant relationships among individuals of the main ancestry group. In contrast, individuals with >90% Gaulish ancestry had no kinship links among sampled individuals. Evidence for population structure and major differences in the extent of Gaulish ancestry in the main group, including in a mother-daughter pair, suggests ongoing admixture in the community at the time of their burial. The isotopic and genetic evidence combined supports a model by which the burials, representing an established coastal nonelite community, had incorporated migrants from inland populations. The main group of burials at Koksijde shows an abundance of >5 cM long shared allelic intervals with the High Medieval site nearby, implying long-term continuity and suggesting that similarly to Britain, the Early Medieval ancestry shifts left a significant and long-lasting impact on the genetic makeup of the Flemish population. We find substantial allele frequency differences between the two ancestry groups in pigmentation and diet-associated variants, including those linked with lactase persistence, likely reflecting ancestry change rather than local adaptation.

Accelerated biological aging six decades after prenatal famine exposure.

To test the hypothesis that early-life adversity accelerates the pace of biological aging, we analyzed data from the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study (DHWFS, N = 951). DHWFS is a natural-experiment birth-cohort study of survivors of in-utero exposure to famine conditions caused by the German occupation of the Western Netherlands in Winter 1944 to 1945, matched controls, and their siblings. We conducted DNA methylation analysis of blood samples collected when the survivors were aged 58 to quantify biological aging using the DunedinPACE, GrimAge, and PhenoAge epigenetic clocks. Famine survivors had faster DunedinPACE, as compared with controls. This effect was strongest among women. Results were similar for GrimAge, although effect-sizes were smaller. We observed no differences in PhenoAge between survivors and controls. Famine effects were not accounted for by blood-cell composition and were similar for individuals exposed early and later in gestation. Findings suggest in-utero undernutrition may accelerate biological aging in later life.

Early Extracorporeal CPR for Refractory Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) restores perfusion and oxygenation in a patient who does not have spontaneous circulation. The evidence with regard to the effect of extracorporeal CPR on survival with a favorable neurologic outcome in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is inconclusive. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, controlled trial conducted in the Netherlands, we assigned patients with an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest to receive extracorporeal CPR or conventional CPR (standard advanced cardiac life support). Eligible patients were between 18 and 70 years of age, had received bystander CPR, had an initial ventricular arrhythmia, and did not have a return of spontaneous circulation within 15 minutes after CPR had been initiated. The primary outcome was survival with a favorable neurologic outcome, defined as a Cerebral Performance Category score of 1 or 2 (range, 1 to 5, with higher scores indicating more severe disability) at 30 days. Analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS: Of the 160 patients who underwent randomization, 70 were assigned to receive extracorporeal CPR and 64 to receive conventional CPR; 26 patients who did not meet the inclusion criteria at hospital admission were excluded. At 30 days, 14 patients (20%) in the extracorporeal-CPR group were alive with a favorable neurologic outcome, as compared with 10 patients (16%) in the conventional-CPR group (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 3.5; P = 0.52). The number of serious adverse events per patient was similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, extracorporeal CPR and conventional CPR had similar effects on survival with a favorable neurologic outcome. (Funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development and Maquet Cardiopulmonary [Getinge]; INCEPTION ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03101787.).

Type 1 VWD classification revisited: novel insights from combined analysis of the LoVIC and WiN studies.

ABSTRACT: There is significant ongoing debate regarding type 1 von Willebrand disease (VWD) defintion. Previous guidelines recommended patients with von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels <30 IU/dL be diagnosed type 1 VWD, whereas patients with significant bleeding and VWF levels from 30 to 50 IU/dL be diagnosed with low VWF. To elucidate the relationship between type 1 VWD and low VWF in the context of age-induced increases in VWF levels, we combined data sets from 2 national cohort studies: 162 patients with low VWF from the Low VWF in Ireland Cohort (LoVIC) and 403 patients with type 1 VWD from the Willebrand in The Netherlands (WiN) studies. In 47% of type 1 VWD participants, VWF levels remained <30 IU/dL despite increasing age. Conversely, VWF levels increased to the low VWF range (30-50 IU/dL) in 30% and normalized (>50 IU/dL) in 23% of type 1 VWD cases. Crucially, absolute VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) levels and increase of VWF:Ag per year overlapped between low VWF and normalized type 1 VWD participants. Moreover, multiple regression analysis demonstrated that VWF:Ag levels in low VWF and normalized type 1 VWD patients would not have been different had they been diagnosed at the same age (ß = 0.00; 95% confidence interval, -0.03 to 0.04). Consistently, no difference was found in the prevalence of VWF sequence variants; factor VIII activity/VWF:Ag or VWF propeptide/VWF:Ag ratios; or desmopressin responses between low VWF and normalized type 1 VWD patients. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that low VWF does not constitute a discrete clinical or pathological entity. Rather, it is part of an age-dependent type 1 VWD evolving phenotype. Collectively, these data have important implications for future VWD classification criteria.

Trends in racial and ethnic discrimination in hiring in six Western countries.

We examine trends in racial and ethnic discrimination in hiring in six European and North American countries: Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States. Our sample includes all available discrimination estimates from 90 field experimental studies of hiring discrimination, encompassing more than 170,000 applications for jobs. The years covered vary by country, ranging from 1969 to 2017 for Great Britain to 1994 to 2017 for Germany. We examine trends in discrimination against four racial-ethnic origin groups: African/Black, Asian, Latin American/Hispanic, and Middle Eastern or North African. The results indicate that levels of discrimination in callbacks have remained either unchanged or slightly increased overall for most countries and origin categories. There are three notable exceptions. First, hiring discrimination against ethnic groups with origins in the Middle East and North Africa increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s. Second, we find that discrimination in France declined, although from very high to "merely" high levels. Third, we find evidence that discrimination in the Netherlands has increased over time. Controls for study characteristics do not change these trends. Contrary to the idea that discrimination will tend to decline in Western countries, we find that discrimination has not fallen over the last few decades in five of the six Western countries we examine.

Inferring the differences in incubation-period and generation-interval distributions of the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating the differences in the incubation-period, serial-interval, and generation-interval distributions of SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to understanding their transmission. However, the impact of epidemic dynamics is often neglected in estimating the timing of infection-for example, when an epidemic is growing exponentially, a cohort of infected individuals who developed symptoms at the same time are more likely to have been infected recently. Here, we reanalyze incubation-period and serial-interval data describing transmissions of the Delta and Omicron variants from the Netherlands at the end of December 2021. Previous analysis of the same dataset reported shorter mean observed incubation period (3.2 d vs. 4.4 d) and serial interval (3.5 d vs. 4.1 d) for the Omicron variant, but the number of infections caused by the Delta variant decreased during this period as the number of Omicron infections increased. When we account for growth-rate differences of two variants during the study period, we estimate similar mean incubation periods (3.8 to 4.5 d) for both variants but a shorter mean generation interval for the Omicron variant (3.0 d; 95% CI: 2.7 to 3.2 d) than for the Delta variant (3.8 d; 95% CI: 3.7 to 4.0 d). The differences in estimated generation intervals may be driven by the "network effect"-higher effective transmissibility of the Omicron variant can cause faster susceptible depletion among contact networks, which in turn prevents late transmission (therefore shortening realized generation intervals). Using up-to-date generation-interval distributions is critical to accurately estimating the reproduction advantage of the Omicron variant.

Using parent-offspring pairs and trios to estimate indirect genetic effects in education.

We investigated indirect genetic effects (IGEs), also known as genetic nurture, in education with a novel approach that uses phased data to include parent-offspring pairs in the transmitted/nontransmitted study design. This method increases the power to detect IGEs, enhances the generalizability of the findings, and allows for the study of effects by parent-of-origin. We validated and applied this method in a family-based subsample of adolescents and adults from the Lifelines Cohort Study in the Netherlands (N = 6147), using the latest genome-wide association study data on educational attainment to construct polygenic scores (PGS). Our results indicated that IGEs play a role in education outcomes in the Netherlands: we found significant associations of the nontransmitted PGS with secondary school level in youth between 13 and 24 years old as well as with education attainment and years of education in adults over 25 years old (ß = 0.14, 0.17 and 0.26, respectively), with tentative evidence for larger maternal IGEs. In conclusion, we replicated previous findings and showed that including parent-offspring pairs in addition to trios in the transmitted/nontransmitted design can benefit future studies of parental IGEs in a wide range of outcomes.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

Incidence and Prediction of Unrelated Mortality After Successful Endoscopic Eradication Therapy for Barrett's Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Follow-up (FU) strategies after endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) for Barrett's neoplasia do not consider the risk of mortality from causes other than esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to evaluate this risk during long-term FU, and to assess whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality. METHODS: We included all patients with successful EET from the nationwide Barrett registry in the Netherlands. Data were merged with National Statistics for accurate mortality data. We evaluated annual mortality rates (AMRs, per 1000 person-years) and standardized mortality ratio for other-cause mortality. Performance of the CCI was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 1154 patients with a mean age of 64 years (±9). During median 59 months (p25-p75 37-91; total 6375 person-years), 154 patients (13%) died from other causes than EAC (AMR, 24.1; 95% CI, 20.5-28.2), most commonly non-EAC cancers (n = 58), cardiovascular (n = 31), or pulmonary diseases (n = 26). Four patients died from recurrent EAC (AMR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-1.4). Compared with the general Dutch population, mortality was significantly increased for patients in the lowest 3 age quartiles (ie, age <71 years). Validation of CCI in our population showed good discrimination (Concordance statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and fair calibration. CONCLUSION: The other-cause mortality risk after successful EET was more than 40 times higher (48; 95% CI, 15-99) than the risk of EAC-related mortality. Our findings reveal that younger post-EET patients exhibit a significantly reduced life expectancy when compared with the general population. Furthermore, they emphasize the strong predictive ability of CCI for long-term mortality after EET. This straightforward scoring system can inform decisions regarding personalized FU, including appropriate cessation timing. (NL7039).

Representativeness is crucial for inferring demographic processes from online genealogies: Evidence from lifespan dynamics.

Crowdsourced online genealogies have an unprecedented potential to shed light on long-run population dynamics, if analyzed properly. We investigate whether the historical mortality dynamics of males in familinx, a popular genealogical dataset, are representative of the general population, or whether they are closer to those of an elite subpopulation in two territories. The first territory is the German Empire, with a low level of genealogical coverage relative to the total population size, while the second territory is The Netherlands, with a higher level of genealogical coverage relative to the population. We find that, for the period around the turn of the 20th century (for which benchmark national life tables are available), mortality is consistently lower and more homogeneous in familinx than in the general population. For that time period, the mortality levels in familinx resemble those of elites in the German Empire, while they are closer to those in national life tables in The Netherlands. For the period before the 19th century, the mortality levels in familinx mirror those of the elites in both territories. We identify the low coverage of the total population and the oversampling of elites in online genealogies as potential explanations for these findings. Emerging digital data may revolutionize our knowledge of historical demographic dynamics, but only if we understand their potential uses and limitations.

Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands.

Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in nonendemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a single potential infector with a mean serial interval of 10.1 days (95% credible interval, 6.6-14.7 days). Further investigation into pairs from 1 regional public health service revealed that presymptomatic transmission may have occurred in 5 of 18 pairs. These findings emphasize that precaution remains key, regardless of the presence of recognizable symptoms of mpox.

Artificial intelligence and radiologists in prostate cancer detection on MRI (PI-CAI): an international, paired, non-inferiority, confirmatory study.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems can potentially aid the diagnostic pathway of prostate cancer by alleviating the increasing workload, preventing overdiagnosis, and reducing the dependence on experienced radiologists. We aimed to investigate the performance of AI systems at detecting clinically significant prostate cancer on MRI in comparison with radiologists using the Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System version 2.1 (PI-RADS 2.1) and the standard of care in multidisciplinary routine practice at scale. METHODS: In this international, paired, non-inferiority, confirmatory study, we trained and externally validated an AI system (developed within an international consortium) for detecting Gleason grade group 2 or greater cancers using a retrospective cohort of 10 207 MRI examinations from 9129 patients. Of these examinations, 9207 cases from three centres (11 sites) based in the Netherlands were used for training and tuning, and 1000 cases from four centres (12 sites) based in the Netherlands and Norway were used for testing. In parallel, we facilitated a multireader, multicase observer study with 62 radiologists (45 centres in 20 countries; median 7 [IQR 5-10] years of experience in reading prostate MRI) using PI-RADS (2.1) on 400 paired MRI examinations from the testing cohort. Primary endpoints were the sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the AI system in comparison with that of all readers using PI-RADS (2.1) and in comparison with that of the historical radiology readings made during multidisciplinary routine practice (ie, the standard of care with the aid of patient history and peer consultation). Histopathology and at least 3 years (median 5 [IQR 4-6] years) of follow-up were used to establish the reference standard. The statistical analysis plan was prespecified with a primary hypothesis of non-inferiority (considering a margin of 0·05) and a secondary hypothesis of superiority towards the AI system, if non-inferiority was confirmed. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05489341. FINDINGS: Of the 10 207 examinations included from Jan 1, 2012, through Dec 31, 2021, 2440 cases had histologically confirmed Gleason grade group 2 or greater prostate cancer. In the subset of 400 testing cases in which the AI system was compared with the radiologists participating in the reader study, the AI system showed a statistically superior and non-inferior AUROC of 0·91 (95% CI 0·87-0·94; p<0·0001), in comparison to the pool of 62 radiologists with an AUROC of 0·86 (0·83-0·89), with a lower boundary of the two-sided 95% Wald CI for the difference in AUROC of 0·02. At the mean PI-RADS 3 or greater operating point of all readers, the AI system detected 6·8% more cases with Gleason grade group 2 or greater cancers at the same specificity (57·7%, 95% CI 51·6-63·3), or 50·4% fewer false-positive results and 20·0% fewer cases with Gleason grade group 1 cancers at the same sensitivity (89·4%, 95% CI 85·3-92·9). In all 1000 testing cases where the AI system was compared with the radiology readings made during multidisciplinary practice, non-inferiority was not confirmed, as the AI system showed lower specificity (68·9% [95% CI 65·3-72·4] vs 69·0% [65·5-72·5]) at the same sensitivity (96·1%, 94·0-98·2) as the PI-RADS 3 or greater operating point. The lower boundary of the two-sided 95% Wald CI for the difference in specificity (-0·04) was greater than the non-inferiority margin (-0·05) and a p value below the significance threshold was reached (p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: An AI system was superior to radiologists using PI-RADS (2.1), on average, at detecting clinically significant prostate cancer and comparable to the standard of care. Such a system shows the potential to be a supportive tool within a primary diagnostic setting, with several associated benefits for patients and radiologists. Prospective validation is needed to test clinical applicability of this system. FUNDING: Health~Holland and EU Horizon 2020.

MRI-guided optimisation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy duration in stage II-III HER2-positive breast cancer (TRAIN-3): a multicentre, single-arm, phase 2 study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with stage II-III HER2-positive breast cancer have good outcomes with the combination of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2-targeted agents. Although increasing the number of chemotherapy cycles improves pathological complete response rates, early complete responses are common. We investigated whether the duration of chemotherapy could be tailored on the basis of radiological response. METHODS: TRAIN-3 is a single-arm, phase 2 study in 43 hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients with stage II-III HER2-positive breast cancer aged 18 years or older and a WHO performance status of 0 or 1 were enrolled. Patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy consisting of paclitaxel (80 mg/m2 of body surface area on day 1 and 8 of each 21 day cycle), trastuzumab (loading dose on day 1 of cycle 1 of 8 mg/kg bodyweight, and then 6 mg/kg on day 1 on all subsequent cycles), and carboplatin (area under the concentration time curve 6 mg/mL per min on day 1 of each 3 week cycle) and pertuzumab (loading dose on day 1 of cycle 1 of 840 mg, and then 420 mg on day 1 of each subsequent cycle), all given intravenously. The response was monitored by breast MRI every three cycles and lymph node biopsy. Patients underwent surgery when a complete radiological response was observed or after a maximum of nine cycles of treatment. The primary endpoint was event-free survival at 3 years; however, follow-up for the primary endpoint is ongoing. Here, we present the radiological and pathological response rates (secondary endpoints) of all patients who underwent surgery and the toxicity data for all patients who received at least one cycle of treatment. Analyses were done in hormone receptor-positive and hormone receptor-negative patients separately. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03820063, recruitment is closed, and the follow-up for the primary endpoint is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2019, and May 12, 2021, 235 patients with hormone receptor-negative cancer and 232 with hormone receptor-positive cancer were enrolled. Median follow-up was 26·4 months (IQR 22·9-32·9) for patients who were hormone receptor-negative and 31·6 months (25·6-35·7) for patients who were hormone receptor-positive. Overall, the median age was 51 years (IQR 43-59). In 233 patients with hormone receptor-negative tumours, radiological complete response was seen in 84 (36%; 95% CI 30-43) patients after one to three cycles, 140 (60%; 53-66) patients after one to six cycles, and 169 (73%; 66-78) patients after one to nine cycles. In 232 patients with hormone receptor-positive tumours, radiological complete response was seen in 68 (29%; 24-36) patients after one to three cycles, 118 (51%; 44-57) patients after one to six cycles, and 138 (59%; 53-66) patients after one to nine cycles. Among patients with a radiological complete response after one to nine cycles, a pathological complete response was seen in 147 (87%; 95% CI 81-92) of 169 patients with hormone receptor-negative tumours and was seen in 73 (53%; 44-61) of 138 patients with hormone receptor-positive tumours. The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were neutropenia (175 [37%] of 467), anaemia (75 [16%]), and diarrhoea (57 [12%]). No treatment-related deaths were reported. INTERPRETATION: In our study, a third of patients with stage II-III hormone receptor-negative and HER2-positive breast cancer had a complete pathological response after only three cycles of neoadjuvant systemic therapy. A complete response on breast MRI could help identify early complete responders in patients who had hormone receptor negative tumours. An imaging-based strategy might limit the duration of chemotherapy in these patients, reduce side-effects, and maintain quality of life if confirmed by the analysis of the 3-year event-free survival primary endpoint. Better monitoring tools are needed for patients with hormone receptor-positive and HER2-positive breast cancer. FUNDING: Roche Netherlands.

Trajectories of clinical characteristics, complications and treatment choices in data-driven subgroups of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: This study aimed to explore the added value of subgroups that categorise individuals with type 2 diabetes by k-means clustering for two primary care registries (the Netherlands and Scotland), inspired by Ahlqvist's novel diabetes subgroups and previously analysed by Slieker et al. METHODS: We used two Dutch and Scottish diabetes cohorts (N=3054 and 6145; median follow-up=11.2 and 12.3 years, respectively) and defined five subgroups by k-means clustering with age at baseline, BMI, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. We investigated differences between subgroups by trajectories of risk factor values (random intercept models), time to diabetes-related complications (logrank tests and Cox models) and medication patterns (multinomial logistic models). We also compared directly using the clustering indicators as predictors of progression vs the k-means discrete subgroups. Cluster consistency over follow-up was assessed. RESULTS: Subgroups' risk factors were significantly different, and these differences remained generally consistent over follow-up. Among all subgroups, individuals with severe insulin resistance faced a significantly higher risk of myocardial infarction both before (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.40, 1.94) and after adjusting for age effect (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.46, 2.02) compared with mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol. Individuals with severe insulin-deficient diabetes were most intensively treated, with more than 25% prescribed insulin at 10 years of diagnosis. For severe insulin-deficient diabetes relative to mild diabetes, the relative risks for using insulin relative to no common treatment would be expected to increase by a factor of 3.07 (95% CI 2.73, 3.44), holding other factors constant. Clustering indicators were better predictors of progression variation relative to subgroups, but prediction accuracy may improve after combining both. Clusters were consistent over 8 years with an accuracy ranging from 59% to 72%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Data-driven subgroup allocations were generally consistent over follow-up and captured significant differences in risk factor trajectories, medication patterns and complication risks. Subgroups serve better as a complement rather than as a basis for compressing clustering indicators.

Taenia martis Neurocysticercosis-Like Lesion in Child, Associated with Local Source, the Netherlands.

A neurocysticercosis-like lesion in an 11-year-old boy in the Netherlands was determined to be caused by the zoonotic Taenia martis tapeworm. Subsequent testing revealed that 15% of wild martens tested in that region were infected with T. martis tapeworms with 100% genetic similarity; thus, the infection source was most likely local.

Effect of 2020-21 and 2021-22 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Epidemics on Wild Birds, the Netherlands.

The number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5-related infections and deaths of wild birds in Europe was high during October 1, 2020-September 30, 2022. To quantify deaths among wild species groups with known susceptibility for HPAI H5 during those epidemics, we collected and recorded mortality data of wild birds in the Netherlands. HPAI virus infection was reported in 51 bird species. The species with the highest numbers of reported dead and infected birds varied per epidemic year; in 2020-21, they were within the Anatidae family, in particular barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) and in 2021-22, they were within the sea bird group, particularly Sandwich terns (Thalasseus sandvicensis) and northern gannet (Morus bassanus). Because of the difficulty of anticipating and modeling the future trends of HPAI among wild birds, we recommend monitoring live and dead wild birds as a tool for surveillance of the changing dynamics of HPAI.