Quantifying the Extent of Anthropogenic Eutrophication of Lakes at a National Scale in New Zealand.

Quantifying environmental changes relative to ecosystem reference conditions (baseline or natural states) can inform assessment of anthropogenic impacts and the development of restoration objectives and targets. We developed statistical models to predict current and reference concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in surface waters for a nationally representative sample of ≥1033 New Zealand lakes. The lake-specific nutrient concentrations reflected variation in factors including anthropogenic nutrient loads, hydrology, geology, elevation, climate, and lake and catchment morphology. Changes between reference and current concentrations were expressed to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic eutrophication. Overall, there was a clear increase in lake trophic status, with the most common trophic status being oligotrophic under a reference state and mesotrophic under current conditions. The magnitude of departure from reference state varied considerably within the sample; however, on average, the mean TN concentration approximately doubled between reference and current states, whereas the mean TP concentration increased approximately 4-fold. This study quantified the extent of water quality degradation across lake types at a national scale, thereby informing ecological restoration objectives and the potential to reduce anthropogenic nutrient loads, while also providing a modeling framework that can be applied to lakes elsewhere.

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems.

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

Modelling interactive effects of multiple disturbances on a coastal lake ecosystem: Implications for management.

Coastal lakes, also known as temporarily open/closed estuaries or intermittently closed and open lakes and lagoons, are common worldwide, are typically sites of high biodiversity and often contain abundant macrophyte populations. Anthropogenic stressors such as increased nutrient and sediment loading have adverse effects on submerged macrophytes, and when closed, the lack of tidal flushing makes coastal lakes highly susceptible to eutrophication. Lake openings to the sea may occur naturally, but many coastal lakes are also opened artificially, often to reduce inundation of surrounding land. Here we used a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM), modified to include dynamic feedback between submerged macrophyte biomass and sediment resuspension, to explore the interactive effects of multiple disturbances (openings, eutrophication and climate change) on the dynamics of primary producers in a coastal lake (Waituna Lagoon) in South Island, New Zealand. Our results indicate that with exposure to high external nutrient loads, the frequent disturbances caused by artificial openings prevent sustained dominance by algae (algal biomass averaged 192 g C m-2 with artificial openings compared to 453 g C m-2 with no openings). However, under current nutrient loading, climate change is likely to enhance the effects of eutrophication on the system (algal biomass averaged 227 g C m-2 with climate change compared with 192 g C m-2 for current climate). The model provides a decision-support tool to guide lake management in setting limits for nutrient loads and managing the opening regime, in order to prevent eutrophication and the potential collapse of the macrophyte community.

Winter severity determines functional trait composition of phytoplankton in seasonally ice-covered lakes.

How climate change will affect the community dynamics and functionality of lake ecosystems during winter is still little understood. This is also true for phytoplankton in seasonally ice-covered temperate lakes which are particularly vulnerable to the presence or absence of ice. We examined changes in pelagic phytoplankton winter community structure in a north temperate lake (Müggelsee, Germany), covering 18 winters between 1995 and 2013. We tested how phytoplankton taxa composition varied along a winter-severity gradient and to what extent winter severity shaped the functional trait composition of overwintering phytoplankton communities using multivariate statistical analyses and a functional trait-based approach. We hypothesized that overwintering phytoplankton communities are dominated by taxa with trait combinations corresponding to the prevailing winter water column conditions, using ice thickness measurements as a winter-severity indicator. Winter severity had little effect on univariate diversity indicators (taxon richness and evenness), but a strong relationship was found between the phytoplankton community structure and winter severity when taxon trait identity was taken into account. Species responses to winter severity were mediated by the key functional traits: motility, nutritional mode, and the ability to form resting stages. Accordingly, one or the other of two functional groups dominated the phytoplankton biomass during mild winters (i.e., thin or no ice cover; phototrophic taxa) or severe winters (i.e., thick ice cover; exclusively motile taxa). Based on predicted milder winters for temperate regions and a reduction in ice-cover durations, phytoplankton communities during winter can be expected to comprise taxa that have a relative advantage when the water column is well mixed (i.e., need not be motile) and light is less limiting (i.e., need not be mixotrophic). A potential implication of this result is that winter severity promotes different communities at the vernal equinox, which may have different nutritional quality for the next trophic level and ecosystem-scale effects.

Patterns of CO2 concentration and inorganic carbon limitation of phytoplankton biomass in agriculturally eutrophic lakes.

Lake eutrophication is a pervasive problem globally, particularly serious in agricultural and densely populated areas. Whenever nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus do not limit phytoplankton growth directly, high growth rates will rapidly lead to biomass increases causing self-shading and light-limitation, and eventually CO2 depletion. The paradigm of phytoplankton limitation by nutrients and light is so pervasively established, that the lack of nutrient limitation is ordinarily interpreted as sufficient evidence for the condition of light limitation, without considering the possibility of limitation by inorganic carbon. Here, we firstly evaluated how frequently CO2 undersaturation occurs in a set of eutrophic lakes in the Pampa plains. Our results confirm that conditions of CO2 undersaturation develop much more frequently (yearly 34%, summer 44%) in these agriculturally impacted lakes than in deep, temperate lakes in forested watersheds. Secondly, we used Generalized Additive Models to fit trends in CO2 concentration considering three drivers: total incident irradiance, chlorophyll a concentration, and lake depth; in eight multi-year datasets from eutrophic lakes from Europe, North and South America, Asia and New Zealand. CO2 depletion was more often observed at high irradiance levels, and shallow water. CO2 depletion also occurred at high chlorophyll concentration. Finally, we identified occurrences of light- and carbon-limitation at the whole-lake scale. The different responses of chlorophyll a and CO2 allowed us to develop criteria for detecting conditions of CO2 limitation. For the first time, we provided whole-lake evidence of carbon limitation of phytoplankton biomass. CO2 increases and eutrophication represent two major and converging environmental problems that have additive and contrasting effects, promoting phytoplankton, and also leading to carbon depletion. Their interactions deserve further exploration and imaginative approaches to deal with their effects.