A matched case-control analysis of autonomous vs human-driven vehicle accidents.

Despite the recent advancements that Autonomous Vehicles have shown in their potential to improve safety and operation, considering differences between Autonomous Vehicles and Human-Driven Vehicles in accidents remain unidentified due to the scarcity of real-world Autonomous Vehicles accident data. We investigated the difference in accident occurrence between Autonomous Vehicles' levels and Human-Driven Vehicles by utilizing 2100 Advanced Driving Systems and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and 35,113 Human-Driven Vehicles accident data. A matched case-control design was conducted to investigate the differential characteristics involving Autonomous' versus Human-Driven Vehicles' accidents. The analysis suggests that accidents of vehicles equipped with Advanced Driving Systems generally have a lower chance of occurring than Human-Driven Vehicles in most of the similar accident scenarios. However, accidents involving Advanced Driving Systems occur more frequently than Human-Driven Vehicle accidents under dawn/dusk or turning conditions, which is 5.25 and 1.98 times higher, respectively. Our research reveals the accident risk disparities between Autonomous Vehicles and Human-Driven Vehicles, informing future development in Autonomous technology and safety enhancements.

Short-term Safety Performance Functions by Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley model for Part-time Shoulder Use.

Part-time Shoulder Use (PTSU) is a traffic management and operation strategy that allows the use of the left or right shoulder as a travel lane, typically during the peak hours of the day. Though PTSU is an effective strategy for increasing roadway capacity in congested traffic conditions, there is very limited quantitative information about PTSU design elements and operational strategy in the existing literature, which could impact the occurrence of crashes on freeways. This study contributes to the safety literature by analyzing various potential crash contributing factors related to PTSU operation and design elements through the development of short-term Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). A comparison of the estimated models demonstrated that by utilizing the mixed distribution and allowing the posterior parameter estimates of explanatory variables to vary from one observation to another, the Random Parameters Negative Binomial-Lindley (RPNB-L) model outperformed the traditional NB and fixed coefficient NB-L models. The results of the proposed RPNB-L model indicated that the PTSU implemented sections experienced a lower number of traffic crashes compared to the non-PTSU freeway sections. Among the attributes related to PTSU operation and design elements, the usage of the leftmost shoulder lane as PTSU, the presence of emergency rest areas for damaged vehicles, and adequate shoulder width would significantly reduce crash frequency for the PTSU implemented freeways. Moreover, investigation of the identified hotspots revealed that the transition areas (start/end locations of PTSU) are the most critical sections. The findings from this research could assist transportation agencies to take appropriate countermeasures for preventing and reducing crash occurrences on PTSU implemented freeways.

Insights into vehicle conflicts based on traffic flow dynamics.

The utilization of traffic conflict indicators is crucial for assessing traffic safety, especially when the crash data is unavailable. To identify traffic conflicts based on traffic flow characteristics across various traffic states, we propose a framework that utilizes unsupervised learning to automatically establish surrogate safety measures (SSM) thresholds. Different traffic states and corresponding transitions are identified with the three-phase traffic theory using high-resolution trajectory data. Meanwhile, the SSMs are mapped to the corresponding traffic states from the perspectives of time, space, and deceleration. Three models, including k-means, GMM, and Mclust, are investigated and compared to optimize the identification of traffic conflicts. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the others based on the evaluation metrics. According to the results, there is a variation in the distribution of traffic conflicts among different traffic states, wide moving jam (phase J) has the highest conflict risk, followed by synchronous flow (phase S), and free flow (phase F). Meanwhile, the thresholds of traffic conflicts cannot be fully represented by the same value through different traffic states. It reveals that the heterogeneity of thresholds is exhibited across traffic state transitions, which justifies the necessity of dynamic thresholds for traffic conflict analysis.

A study on diversion behavior in weaving segments: Individualized traffic conflict prediction and causal mechanism analysis.

Lane change behavior disrupts traffic flow and increases the potential for traffic conflicts, especially on expressway weaving segments. Focusing on the diversion process, this study incorporating individual driving patterns into conflict prediction and causation analysis can help develop individualized intervention measures to avoid risky diversion behaviors. First, to minimize measurement errors, this study introduces a lane line reconstruction method. Second, several unsupervised clustering methods, including k-means, agglomerative clustering, gaussian mixture, and spectral clustering, are applied to explore diversion patterns. Moreover, machine learning methods, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Attention-based LSTM, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), are employed for real-time traffic conflict prediction. Finally, mixed logit models are developed using pre-conflict condition data to investigate the causal mechanisms of traffic conflicts. The results indicate that the K-means algorithm with four clusters exhibits the highest Calinski-Harabasz and Silhouette scores and the lowest Davies-Bouldin scores. With superior classification accuracy and generalization ability, the LSTM is used to develop the personalized traffic conflict prediction model. Sensitivity analysis indicates that incorporating the diversion patterns into the LSTM model results in an improvement of 3.64% in Accuracy, 7.15% in Precision, and 1.34% in Recall. Results from the four mixed logit models indicate significant differences in factors contributing to traffic conflicts within each diversion pattern. For instance, increasing the speed difference between the target vehicle and the right preceding vehicle benefits traffic conflict during acceleration diversions but decreases the likelihood of traffic conflicts during deceleration diversions. These results can help traffic engineers propose individualized solutions to reduce unsafe diversion behavior.

Real-time crash prediction on express managed lanes of Interstate highway with anomaly detection learning.

To facilitate efficient transportation, I-4 Express is constructed separately from general use lanes in metropolitan area to improve mobility and reduce congestion. As this new infrastructure would undoubtedly change the traffic network, there is a need for more understanding of its potential safety impact. Unfortunately, many advanced real-time crash prediction models encounter an important challenge in their applicability due to their demand for a substantial volume of data for direct modeling. To tackle this challenge, we proposed a simple yet effective approach - anomaly detection learning, which formulates model as an anomaly detection problem, solves it through normality feature recognition, and predicts crashes by identifying deviations from the normal state. The proposed approach demonstrates significant improvement in the Area Under the Curve (AUC), sensitivity, and False Alarm Rate (FAR). When juxtaposed with the prevalent direct classification paradigm, our proposed anomaly detection learning (ADL) consistently outperforms in AUC (with an increase of up to 45%), sensitivity (experiencing up to a 45% increase), and FAR (reducing by up to 0.53). The most performance gain is attained through the combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in an ensemble, resulting in a 0.78 AUC, 0.79 sensitivity, and a 0.22 false alarm rate. Furthermore, we analyzed model features with a game-theoretic approach illustrating the most correlated features for accurate prediction, revealing the attention of advanced convolution neural networks to occupancy features. This provided crucial insights into improving crash precaution, the findings from which not only benefit private stakeholders but also extend a promising opportunity for governmental intervention on the express lane. This work could promote express lane with more efficient resource allocation, real-time traffic management optimization, and high-risk area prioritization.

Exploring the influence of drivers' visual surroundings on speeding behavior.

Despite awareness campaigns and legal consequences, speeding is a significant cause of road accidents and fatalities globally. To combat this issue, understanding the impact of a driver's visual surroundings is crucial in designing roadways that discourage speeding. This study investigates the influence of visual surroundings on drivers in 15 US cities using 3,407,253 driver view images from Lytx, covering 4,264 miles of roadways. By segmenting and analyzing these images along with vehicle-related variables, the study examines factors affecting speeding behavior. After filtering the images, to ensure an accurate representation of the driver's view, 1,340,035 driver view images were used for analysis. Statistical models, including hurdle beta and bivariate probit models with random driver effects as well as Machine Learning's eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed to estimate speeding behavior. The results indicate that factors within the driver's visual environment, weather conditions, and driver heterogeneity significantly impact speeding. Speeding behavior also varies across geographic locations, even within the same city, suggesting a connection between local context and speeding. The study highlights the importance of the driver's environment, showing that more open spaces encourage speeding, while areas with trees and buildings are associated with reduced speeding. Notably, this research differs from previous studies by utilizing real-time data from dash cameras, providing a dynamic and accurate representation of the driver's visual surroundings. This approach enhances the reliability of the findings and empowers transportation engineers and planners to make informed decisions when designing roadways and implementing interventions to address effectively excessive speeding. In addition to examining speeding behavior, the study also analyzes time-headway, a key factor affecting safety and risky driver behavior, to explore its relationship with speeding. The findings offer valuable insights into the factors influencing speeding and the driver's visual environment. These insights can inform efforts to create environments that discourage speeding (and close car following) and ultimately reduce severe accidents caused by excessive speed (and tailgating).

Advancing urban traffic accident forecasting through sparse spatio-temporal dynamic learning.

Traffic accidents have emerged as one of the most public health safety matters, raising concerns from both the public and urban administrators. The ability to accurately predict traffic accident not only supports the governmental decision-making in advance but also enhances public confidence in safety measures. However, the efficacy of traditional spatio-temporal prediction models are compromised by the skewed distributions and sparse labeling of accident data. To this end, we propose a Sparse Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Hypergraph Learning (SST-DHL) framework that captures higher-order dependencies in sparse traffic accidents by combining hypergraph learning and self-supervised learning. The SST-DHL model incorporates a multi-view spatiotemporal convolution block to capture local correlations and semantics of traffic accidents, a cross-regional dynamic hypergraph learning model to identify global spatiotemporal dependencies, and a two-supervised self-learning paradigm to capture both local and global spatiotemporal patterns. Through experimentation on New York City and London accident datasets, we demonstrate that our proposed SST-DHL exhibits significant improvements compared to optimal baseline models at different sparsity levels. Additionally, it offers enhanced interpretability of results by elucidating complex spatio-temporal dependencies among various traffic accident instances. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of the SST-DHL framework in accurately predicting traffic accidents, thereby enhancing public safety and trust.

Dynamic short-term crash analysis and prediction at toll plazas for proactive safety management.

Toll plazas are commonly recognized as bottlenecks on toll roads, where vehicles are prone to crashes. However, there has been a lack of research analyzing and predicting dynamic short-term crash risk specifically at toll plazas. This study utilizes traffic, geometric, and weather data to analyze and predict dynamic short-term collision occurrence probability at mainline toll plazas. A random-effects logit regression model is employed to identify crash precursors and assess their impacts on the probability of crash occurrence at toll plazas. Meanwhile, a Long Short-Term Memory Convolutional Neural Network (LSTM-CNN) network is applied for crash prediction. The results of random-effects logit regression model indicate that the flow standard deviation of downstream, upstream occupancy, speed difference and occupancy difference between upstream and downstream positively influence the probability of crash occurrence. Conversely, an increase in the proportion of ETC lanes negatively impacts the probability of crash occurrence. Additionally, there appears a higher likelihood of crashes occurring during summer at toll plaza area. Furthermore, to address the issue of data imbalance, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Techniques (SMOTE) and class weight methods were employed. Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder-Long Short-Term Memory (SSAE-LSTM) and CatBoost were developed and their performance was compared with the proposed model. The results demonstrated that the LSTM-CNN model outperformed the other models in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values and the true positive rate. The findings of this study can assist engineers in selecting suitable traffic control strategies to improve traffic safety in toll plaza areas. Moreover, the developed collision prediction model can be incorporated into a real-time safety management system to proactively prevent traffic crash.

Evaluating helmet-wearing of single-vehicle overspeeding motorcycle crashes: Insights from temporal instability in parsimonious pooled framework.

OBJECTIVE: A lower helmet-wearing rate and overspeeding in Pakistan are critical risk behaviors of motorcyclists, causing severe injuries. To explore the differences in the determinants affecting the injury severities among helmeted and non-helmeted motorcyclists in motorcycle crashes caused by overspeeding behavior, single-vehicle motorcycle crash data in Rawalpindi city for 2017-2019 is collected. Considering three possible crash injury severity outcomes of motorcyclists: fatal injury, severe injury and minor injury, the rider, roadway, environmental, and temporal characteristics are estimated. METHODS: To provide a mathematically simpler framework, the current study introduces parsimonious pooled random parameters logit models. Then, the standard pooled random parameters logit models without considering temporal effects are also simulated for comparison. By comparing the goodness of fit measure and estimation results, the parsimonious pooled random parameters logit model is suitable for capturing the temporal instability. Then, the non-transferability among helmeted and non-helmeted overspeeding motorcycle crashes is illustrated by likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample prediction, and two types of models provide robust results. The marginal effects are also calculated. RESULTS: Several variables, such as age, cloudy and weekday indicators illustrate temporal instability. Moreover, several variables are observed to only show significance in non-helmeted models, showing non-transferability across helmeted and non-helmeted models. CONCLUSIONS: More educational campaigns, regulation and enforcement, and management countermeasures should be organized for non-helmeted motorcyclists and overspeeding behavior. Such findings also provide research reference for the risk-compensating behavior and self-selected group issues under overspeeding riding considering the usage of helmets.

Investigating surrogate safety measures at midblock pedestrian crossings using multivariate models with roadside camera data.

This study aims to evaluate and compare Surrogate Safety Measures (SSMs) at five midblock Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFB) and two midblock Pedestrian Hybrid Beacons (PHB) sites in Florida using extensive video data collected over the study period of July to November 2021. Computer vision and data processing resulted in four pedestrian SSMs, namely spatial gap, temporal gap, relative time to collision (RTTC) and Post Encroachment Time (PET). An initial investigation of the SSMs using Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests revealed significant differences in the SSM values across different treatment types and hours of the day. Additionally, univariate regression of spatial gap, and multivariate regression of temporal gap, RTTC and PET revealed significant differences of SSMs across RRFB and PHB sites. The study considered both linear and non-linear (gamma, inverse Gaussian and lognormal) regression models. After considering various traffic and operational parameters, the data were aggregated for each pedestrian-vehicle interaction on each lane to create a total of 395 observations. The SSMs included average spatial gap, temporal gap, RTTC and PET for each interaction of pedestrian and vehicle on each lane. The results indicated that non-linear models performed better than the linear models. Moreover, the presence of the PHB, weekday, signal activation, lane count, pedestrian speed, vehicle speed, land use mix, morning period and pedestrian starting position from the sidewalk have been found to be significant determinants of the SSMs. Results also suggest temporal SSMs increase at the PHB sites compared to the RRFB sites, indicating an improvement of traffic safety at PHB sites. However, the spatial gap decreased for PHB sites compared to the RRFB sites, which suggests that pedestrians tend to start to cross the RRFB sites when they perceive vehicles to be further away than at the PHB sites.

Advances and applications of computer vision techniques in vehicle trajectory generation and surrogate traffic safety indicators.

The application of Computer Vision (CV) techniques massively stimulates microscopic traffic safety analysis from the perspective of traffic conflicts and near misses, which is usually measured using Surrogate Safety Measures (SSM). However, as video processing and traffic safety modeling are two separate research domains and few research have focused on systematically bridging the gap between them, it is necessary to provide transportation researchers and practitioners with corresponding guidance. With this aim in mind, this paper focuses on reviewing the applications of CV techniques in traffic safety modeling using SSM and suggesting the best way forward. The CV algorithms that are used for vehicle detection and tracking from early approaches to the state-of-the-art models are summarized at a high level. Then, the video pre-processing and post-processing techniques for vehicle trajectory extraction are introduced. A detailed review of SSMs for vehicle trajectory data along with their application on traffic safety analysis is presented. Finally, practical issues in traffic video processing and SSM-based safety analysis are discussed, and the available or potential solutions are provided. This review is expected to assist transportation researchers and engineers with the selection of suitable CV techniques for video processing, and the usage of SSMs for various traffic safety research objectives.

The impact of target speed on pedestrian, bike, and speeding crash frequencies.

This research aims to investigate the influence of adopting the target speed concept on different types of crashes including pedestrian, bike, and speeding-related crashes. The Target speed is the highest speed that vehicles should operate on a roadway segment in a specific context. Based on the reviewed literature, this is the first study to investigate the relationship between target speed and crash frequency. Hence, big data including probe-vehicle data, traffic characteristics, geometric features, and land use attributes were utilized to develop crash prediction models. The main contributions of this research are to quantify the impacts of target speed on traffic safety considering context categories and to conclude the potential recommendations to lower different types of crashes. The 85th percentile speed was calculated and utilized in the developed models. Three crash prediction models were developed for pedestrian, bike, and speeding-related crashes. They were used in the analysis to quantify the impact of adopting target speed on different crash types. The results showed a significant reduction in the three crash types when using the target speed. Most of the improvements took place in three context categories: C3C: Suburban Commercial Segments, C3R: Suburban Residential Segments, and C4: Urban General Segments. Hence, this research recommends adopting target speed specifically in urban and suburban areas. Further, it suggests considering some measures to lower vulnerable road users' and speeding-related crashes. Following the recommendations of this research would help to reduce different types of crash frequency, hence, improving the mobility and safety for all users in different context classifications.

Time-specific hierarchical models for predicting crash frequency of reversible and high-occupancy vehicle lanes.

Time-specific Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) were proposed to achieve accurate and dynamic crash frequency predictions. This study contributes to the literature by developing time-specific SPFs for freeways that include reversible lanes (RL) and freeways that include High-Occupancy Vehicle lanes (HOV) using Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) data from Virginia, Arizona and Washington States. Variables that capture the time-specific traffic turbulence were prepared and considered in the developed SPFs. Moreover, two different hierarchical models were proposed to identify factors associated with the different crash types or severity in crash frequency prediction. The results indicated that the variables representing the volume difference between reversible and general-purpose lanes (GPL) were positively associated with crash frequency. Further, the variable that indicated the design of the access point of the reversible lane was positively associated with crash frequency. The models comparison results showed that the hierarchical models outperformed the corresponding Poisson lognormal model with lower AIC and MAE values. This study also tested the proposed hierarchical models on High-Occupancy Vehicle freeway sections and reached the same conclusion on model comparison results. The significant variables representing the logarithm of volume were found to be significant and positive with crash frequency. Moreover, the difference in average speed between the HOV lanes and GPL was also found to be positive and significant with the crash frequency. In general, this study successfully identified the factors associated with the different crash types or severity in crash frequency prediction models.

Factors affecting injury severity at pedestrian crossing locations with Rectangular RAPID Flashing Beacons (RRFB) using XGBoost and random parameters discrete outcome models.

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFB) on crash severity. The study used and compared XGBoost and Random Parameters Discrete Outcome Models (RPDOM) respectively. The dataset comprises of 312 pedestrian crossing locations, among which 154 treatment locations were provided with the Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFB) and 158 control locations without RRFB. These control locations have similar roadway, traffic, and land use characteristics of that of the treatment locations but are not treated with RRFB or other pedestrian crossing countermeasures. This study shows the impact of RRFB and other factors on severity of nighttime, pedestrian, total and rear-end crashes. Crash severity data was compiled from driver, vehicle, and event level data of each crash. Due to availability of larger number of observations for total (35,553), rear-end (15,675) and nighttime crashes (8,144) XGBoost was used, and due to less observations for pedestrian crashes (369), it was modeled using RPDOM. The results showed positive impact of RRFB for the reduction of nighttime crashes. It was noted that RRFB reduces the K and A nighttime crashes according to the SHAP values from the XGBoost model but does not have the desired significance for rear end and overall total crashes in the study area. From the RPDOM, it was seen that RRFB showed statistically significant reduction in injury severity of pedestrian crashes and nighttime crashes. To compare the two models, nighttime crashes were modeled using both the techniques, the prediction accuracy of XGBoost Model was 97% which was much greater than that of the RPDOM at 73.8% prediction accuracy. Thus, both XGBoost and the RPDOM model for showed positive impact of installing RRFB in reducing the severity of nighttime crashes.

Multi-vehicle safety functions for freeway weaving segments using lane-level traffic data.

This study develops Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) for freeway weaving segments. Due to the coexistence of three different movements including through, merging, and divering traffic, the probability of crashes in weaving segments is higher compared to other segment types. Further, the traffic flow in this section is the most unstable. Hence, to analyze detailed traffic conditions, this study utilized lane-level traffic data. The SPFs were developed using the Poisson Lognormal (PLN) regression model technique. The results showed that different traffic parameters were significant based on the types of crashes. For the rear-end crashes model, more general traffic conditions of the weaving segment were found to be significantly associated with the crash frequency such as the natural logarithm of average speed of through lanes. Nevertheless, for the sideswipe and angle crashes models, the traffic variables which are directly related to the weaving movements were selected as significant factors such as the off-ramp volume ratio, and standard deviation of speed of the rightmost lane. The results presented in this study can be meaningful in that they can serve as a basis for the weaving segments related safety evaluation studies. In addition, the developed models' results can be a great source to establish operational strategies to improve traffic safety on freeway weaving segments.

Effectiveness of bicycle helmets and injury prevention: a systematic review of meta-analyses.

To mitigate the risk of injuries, many countries recommend bicycle helmets. The current paper seeks to examine the effectiveness of bicycle helmets by performing a systematic review focusing on meta-analyses. First, the current paper explores the findings of studies that employ meta-analyses using bicycle crash data. Second, the results are discussed considering the findings from research analyzing bicycle helmet effectiveness in a laboratory using simulation, and then are complemented with key methodological papers that address cycling and the overall factors contributing to the injury severity. The examined literature confirms that wearing a helmet while cycling is beneficial, regardless of age, crash severity, or crash type. The relative benefit is found to be higher in high-risk situations and when cycling on shared roads and particularly preventing severe head injuries. The results from the studies performed in laboratories also suggest that the shape and size of the head itself play a role in the protective effects of helmets. However, concerns regarding the equitability of the test conditions were found as all reviewed studies used a fifty-percentile male head and body forms. Lastly, the paper discusses the literature findings in a broader societal context.

Explore traffic conflict risks considering motion constraint degree in the diverging area of toll plazas.

In the diverging area of toll plazas, the absence of lane markings, the gradual widening of lanes, and the crossing of vehicles with different tolling methods increase the likelihood of collisions. This study proposed a concept of motion constraint degree to investigate traffic conflict risks in the toll plaza diverging area. On the basis of the motion constraint degree, a two-step method was developed, in which all potentially influencing factors were separated into two parts. The first part was used to analyze the association between the motion constraint degree and some factors, while the remaining factors were utilized for risk regression/prediction together with the motion constraint degree. The random parameters logit model was applied for regression analysis and four prevalent machine learning models were employed for risk prediction. Results indicate that (1) the proposed approach considering motion constraint degree outperforms the conventional direct method, no matter for conflict risk regression or prediction; (2) the motion constraint degree is not monotonically correlated with the risk level of vehicles; (3) due to the layout of the toll plaza, ETC vehicles are less likely to be at risk in the diverging area; and (4) lane-changing behaviors in the restricted space increase the conflict risk.

Changes in traffic crash patterns: Before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Florida.

In the twentieth year of the twenty-first century, humanity is facing an unprecedented global crisis owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. It has brought about drastic changes in the way we live and work, as well as the way we move from one place to another, namely transportation. Previous studies have preliminarily found that mobility, travel behavior, and road traffic safety status experienced great changes after the outbreak of the COVID-19. The objective of this study is to explore how crash patterns have changed, as well as the contributing factors of such changes and the heterogeneity between counties in Florida. Thus, data of COVID-19 cases, crash, socioeconomic factors, and traffic volume of 2019 and 2020 are collected. Preliminary analyses show a considerable reduction from March to June. Substantial changes are shown in the proportions of crashes by time of occurrence and injury severity. Two types of statistical models are developed to identify factors of (1) changes in the percentages of crashes by type and (2) the numbers of crashes by type. The developed models reveal various demographic, socioeconomic, and travel factors. After controlling other factors, the total numbers of crashes are 14% lower after the outbreak. The most significant reductions are observed in peak-hour (22%), while no significant change is found in fatal crashes. The results show that the number of crashes has significantly decreased even after controlling the traffic volume, but some crash types (e.g., fatal) did not show a significant reduction. The findings are expected to provide some insights into better transportation planning and management to ensure traffic safety in a possible future epidemic.

Full data imputation for freeway time-specific safety performance functions' estimation.

Time-specific Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) were proposed to achieve accurate and dynamic crash frequency predictions. Unfortunately, some states do not have or archive the needed high-resolution traffic data to develop time-specific SPFs. This study proposes a novel iterative imputation method to impute the 100% missing volume and speed data from different states with similar crash rates. First, this study calculated the crash rates for 18 states and applied the One-Way Analysis of variance (ANOVA) test to group the states with similar crash rates. Second, as an example FL and VA, which both have traffic data, were used to test the proposed iterative imputation method. The results indicated that the imputed traffic data could capture the same traffic pattern as the real-collected traffic data. Further, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between the imputed Ln Volume and the real-collected Ln Volume for FL is only 2.47 vehicles for each segment for three hours. The MAE between the imputed Ln AvgSpeed and the real-collected Ln AvgSpeed for FL is only 1.36 mph. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) between the imputed Ln Volume and the real-collected Ln Volume is 11.07%. Meanwhile, the MAPE between the imputed Ln AvgSpeed and the real-collected Ln AvgSpeed is 7.40%. Finally, this study applied the proposed iterative imputation method to develop time-specific SPFs for the state without traffic data and compared the results. The results illustrated that the time-specific SPFs developed by imputed traffic data perfectly reflected the significant variables for both morning and afternoon peak models, with a prediction accuracy of 87.1% for the morning peak model.

Enhanced index of risk assessment of lane change on expressway weaving segments: A case study of an expressway in China.

Vehicles frequently change lanes at weaving segments, and there is a high probability of collision. To assess the risk of lane change, this study proposes a novel lane change risk assessment index (LCRAI), which takes both exposure time and conflict severity into consideration. First, the generalized time-to-collision (GTTC) and exposure-to-risk index (ERI) are proposed to evaluate conflicts during lane change, and then a spatiotemporal overlap analysis is applied to exclude the cases when two vehicles arrive at the conflict area at different times. Second, the change of velocity after a crash occurrence is calculated and used to evaluate the severity risk (SRI). Finally, ERI and SRI are combined to compute the LCRAI. A case study of a weaving segment is conducted, and the weaving segment is divided into four sections to compare their risks. Conflict frequency on the section close to the exit is the largest and it is smallest after passing the exit, while conflict severity is most serious just after entering the main line on the middle lane. As for both conflict frequency and severity, LCRAI shows that the middle section is the most dangerous while the last 100 m section is the safest in the weaving segment. The index proposed will contribute to the risk assessment of lane change in connected environments and improve safety in weaving segments of expressway combined with real-time safety countermeasures.