Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan.

We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.

Telehealth development in the WHO European region: Results from a quantitative survey and insights from Norway.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic sent shock waves through societies, economies, and health systems of Member States in the WHO European Region and beyond. During the pandemic, most countries transitioned from a slow to a rapid adoption of telehealth solutions, to accommodate the public health and social measures introduced to mitigate the spread of the disease. As countries shift to a post-pandemic world, the question remains whether telehealth's importance as a mode of care provision in Europe continues to be significant. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to present, synthesize, and interpret results from the Telehealth Programmes section of the 2022 WHO Survey on Digital Health (2022 WHO/Europe DH Survey). We specifically analyze the implementation and use of teleradiology, telemedicine, and telepsychiatry. Norwegian telehealth experiences will be used to illustrate survey findings, and we discuss some of the relevant barriers and facilitators that impact the use of telehealth services. METHODS: The survey tool was revised from the 2015 WHO Global Survey on eHealth, updated to reflect recent progress and policy priorities.The 2022 WHO/Europe DH Survey was conducted by WHO and circulated to Member States in its European Region from April to October 2022. RESULTS: The data analysis revealed that teleradiology, telemedicine, and telepsychiatry are the telehealth services most commonly used in the WHO European Region in 2022. Funding remains the most significant barrier to the implementation of telehealth in the Region, followed by infrastructure and capacity/human resources. The survey results highlighted in this study are presented in the following sections: (1) telehealth strategies and financing, (2) telehealth programmes and services offered by Member States of the WHO European Region, (3) barriers to implementing telehealth services, and (4) monitoring and evaluation of telehealth. CONCLUSION: Based on WHO's 2022 survey, the use of telehealth in the WHO European Region is on the rise. However, merely having telehealth in place is not sufficient for its successful and sustained use for care provision. Responses also uncovered regional differences and barriers that need to be overcome. Successful implementation and scaling of telehealth requires rethinking the design of health and social care systems to create robust, trustworthy, and person-centred digital health and care services.

Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world's most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the likelihood of disease outbreaks expected to increase in the future as more people are displaced due to conflict and climate change, we call for the development of more approaches and models specifically designed to include the unique features and populations of refugee and IDP settlements. To strengthen collaboration between the modelling and the humanitarian public health communities, we propose a roadmap to encourage the development of systems and frameworks to share needs, build tools and coordinate responses in an efficient and scalable manner, both for this pandemic and for future outbreaks.

Understanding Fatal and Non-Fatal Drug Overdose Risk Factors: Overdose Risk Questionnaire Pilot Study-Validation.

Background: Drug overdoses (fatal and non-fatal) are among the leading causes of death in population with substance use disorders. The aim of the current study was to identify risk factors for fatal and non-fatal drug overdose for predominantly opioid-dependent treatment-seeking population. Methods: Data were collected from 640 adult patients using a self-reported 25-item Overdose Risk (OdRi) questionnaire pertaining to drug use and identified related domains. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was primarily used to improve the interpretability of this questionnaire. Two sets of EFA were conducted; in the first set of analysis, all items were included, while in the second set, items related to the experience of overdose were removed. Logistic regression was used for the assessment of latent factors' association with both fatal and non-fatal overdoses. Results: EFA suggested a three-factor solution accounting for 75 and 97% of the variance for items treated in the first and second sets of analysis, respectively. Factor 1 was common for both sets of EFA analysis, containing six items (Cronbach's α = 0.70) focusing around "illicit drug use and lack of treatment." In the first set of analysis, Factors 2 (Cronbach's α = 0.60) and 3 (Cronbach's α = 0.34) were focusing around "mental health and emotional trauma" and "chronic drug use and frequent overdose" domains, respectively. The increase of Factor 2 was found to be a risk factor for fatal drug overdose (adjusted coefficient = 1.94, p = 0.038). In the second set of analysis, Factors 2 (Cronbach's α = 0.65) and 3 (Cronbach's α = 0.59) as well as Factor 1 were found to be risk factors for non-fatal drug overdose ever occurring. Only Factors 1 and 3 were positively associated with non-fatal overdose (one in a past year). Conclusion: The OdRi tool developed here could be helpful for clinical studies for the overdose risk assessment. However, integrating validated tools for mental health can probably help refining the accuracy of latent variables and the questionnaire's consistency. Mental health and life stress appear as important predictors of both fatal and non-fatal overdoses.

A participatory modelling approach for investigating the spread of COVID-19 in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region to support public health decision-making.

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office recognised the importance of epidemiological modelling to forecast the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to support decisions guiding the implementation of response measures. We established a modelling support team to facilitate the application of epidemiological modelling analyses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries. Here, we present an innovative, stepwise approach to participatory modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic that engaged decision-makers and public health professionals from countries throughout all stages of the modelling process. Our approach consisted of first identifying the relevant policy questions, collecting country-specific data and interpreting model findings from a decision-maker's perspective, as well as communicating model uncertainty. We used a simple modelling methodology that was adaptable to the shortage of epidemiological data, and the limited modelling capacity, in our region. We discuss the benefits of using models to produce rapid decision-making guidance for COVID-19 control in the WHO EMR, as well as challenges that we have experienced regarding conveying uncertainty associated with model results, synthesising and comparing results across multiple modelling approaches, and modelling fragile and conflict-affected states.

Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

Leaving no one behind: prioritising digital health equity across the WHO European Region

The 2023 World Health Organization (WHO) report on digital health for the WHO European Region demonstrates the accelerated progress in the adoption of digital health technologies (DHT) in recent years. However, there are growing concerns about the digital divide resulting from inequitable access and utilisation of DHT, particularly among older people and marginalised communities. This article sheds light on the advancements made by WHO Europe Member States and underscores the necessity to ensure access to devices and stable internet connection, as well as promoting digital literacy and user engagement, to overcome this digital divide.