The association between hepatic steatosis and incident cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality in a US multicohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: NAFLD strongly associates with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; however, the association between NAFLD and incident CVD, CVD-related mortality, incident cancer, and all-cause mortality is unclear. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included 10,040 participants from the Framingham Heart Study, the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, and the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to assess the longitudinal association between liver fat (defined on CT) and incident CVD, CVD-related mortality, incident cancer, and all-cause mortality. We performed multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models including age, sex, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, smoking, HDL, triglycerides, and body mass index at baseline or time-varying covariates. The average age was 51.3±3.3 years and 50.6% were women. Hepatic steatosis was associated with all-cause mortality after 12.7 years of mean follow-up when adjusting for baseline CVD risk factors, including body mass index (HR: 1.21, 1.04-1.40); however, the results were attenuated when utilizing time-varying covariates. The association between hepatic steatosis and incident CVD was not statistically significant after we accounted for body mass index in models considering baseline covariates or time-varying covariates. We observed no association between hepatic steatosis and CVD-related mortality or incident cancer. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multicohort study of participants with CT-defined hepatic steatosis, accounting for change in CVD risk factors over time attenuated associations between liver fat and overall mortality or incident CVD. Our work highlights the need to consider concurrent cardiometabolic disease when determining associations between NAFLD and CVD and mortality outcomes.

Estimate of Increase in Colorectal Cancer Diagnoses with Expansion of Fecal Immunochemical Testing in an Urban Safety-Net Population.

BACKGROUND: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is less effective in detecting advanced adenomas (AA) than colonoscopy. Increase in FIT for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening may lead to an increased number of undetected AAs which may develop into future CRCs. AIM: We determined the potential impact of FIT expansion on missed AAs and future CRC diagnoses in an urban, tertiary-care, safety-net hospital. METHODS: CRC and AA diagnoses were identified in patients undergoing colonoscopy for average-risk CRC screening or positive FIT between 2017 and 2019 at Boston Medical Center. Poisson regression modeling was used to estimate the frequency of AAs per year by age group using data from 2017 to 2019, assuming average outpatient volume and proportion of screening colonoscopies. Total number of patients who received FIT was extrapolated from those who underwent colonoscopy for positive FIT. We estimated AAs per year if 'one-time' FIT was used for screening in 75% and 100% of the population and subtracted this from the estimated AAs per year under the Poisson model to determine missed AAs. We used previously described, age and gender specific estimates of the annual progression of AA to CRC. RESULTS: The estimated number of CRCs detected per year is 4.6/1785 males and 4.6/2086 females screened. With 75% FIT expansion, we estimate an additional 3.5 (95% CI 1.3, 9.5) and 2.2 (95% CI 0.64, 7.6) CRCs; with 100% FIT expansion, we estimate an additional 7.4 (95% CI 3.7, 14.9) and 4.2 (95% CI 1.7, 10.5) CRCs, in 5 years, in males and females, respectively. CONCLUSION: Expansion of FIT may substantially increase CRC incidence.

In high-risk patients with acute upper GI bleeding, urgent vs. early endoscopy did not differ for 30-day mortality.

SOURCE CITATION: Lau JY, Yu Y, Tang RS, et al. Timing of endoscopy for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1299-308. 32242355.

Predictive Factors and Time to Development of Hepatic Decompensation in Patients with Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common causes of cirrhosis in the USA. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the time to develop hepatic events in patients with NAFLD and develop a simple model to identify patients at risk for hepatic decompensation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENTS: Seven hundred patients with NAFLD met inclusion criteria for the study. Patients were divided into model construction (n = 450) and validation (n = 250) cohorts. MAIN MEASURES: Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were gathered at the time of diagnosis of NAFLD. Kaplan-Meier analysis determined the time to development of hepatic events from initial diagnosis. A time-to-event prediction model was established in the model construction cohort using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and was then internally validated. KEY RESULTS: Forty-nine (7%) patients developed hepatic events at a mean duration of 6.2 ± 4.2 years from initial diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier probability of developing a hepatic event at 5-, 10-, and 12-year intervals was 4.8%, 10.6%, and 11.3%, respectively. Age, presence of diabetes, and platelet count were identified as significant variables to predict hepatic events. NAFLD decompensation risk score was developed as "age × 0.06335 + presence of diabetes (yes = 1, no = 0) × 0.92221 - platelet count × 0.01522" to predict the probability of hepatic decompensation. Risk score model had an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.92, 0.86) and it performed well in both the validation (0.91, 0.87-0.94) and the overall cohort (0.89, 0.87-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients with NAFLD developed hepatic decompensation. We have provided a simple, objective model to help identify "at-risk" patients.

The NAFLD Decompensation Risk Score: External Validation and Comparison to Existing Models to Predict Hepatic Events in a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: The NAFLD decompensation risk score (the Iowa Model) was recently developed to identify patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) at highest risk of developing hepatic events using three variables-age, platelet count, and diabetes. Aims: We performed an external validation of the Iowa Model and compared it to existing non-invasive models. Methods: We included 249 patients with NAFLD at Boston Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, in the external validation cohort and 949 patients in the combined internal/external validation cohort. The primary outcome was the development of hepatic events (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, esophageal or gastric varices, or hepatocellular carcinoma). We used Cox proportional hazards to analyze the ability of the Iowa Model to predict hepatic events in the external validation (https://uihc.org/non-alcoholic-fatty-liver-disease-decompensation-risk-score-calculator). We compared the performance of the Iowa Model to the AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), and the FIB-4 index in the combined cohort. Results: The Iowa Model significantly predicted the development of hepatic events with hazard ratio of 2.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-3.9, P < 0.001] and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.87 (CI 0.83-0.91). The AUROC of the Iowa Model (0.88, CI: 0.85-0.92) was comparable to the FIB-4 index (0.87, CI: 0.83-0.91) and higher than NFS (0.66, CI: 0.63-0.69) and APRI (0.76, CI: 0.73-0.79). Conclusions: In an urban, racially and ethnically diverse population, the Iowa Model performed well to identify NAFLD patients at higher risk for liver-related complications. The model provides the individual probability of developing hepatic events and identifies patients in need of early intervention.

Effects of hypertonic (NaCl) two-dimensional and three-dimensional culture conditions on the properties of cartilage tissue engineered from an expanded mature bovine chondrocyte source.

Clinically relevant mature cartilage cells (chondrocytes) present challenges for use in cartilage tissue engineering applications, given their low capacity for cell division and tissue production. Since the in situ environment of chondrocytes is hypertonic relative to standard culture medium conditions, in this study we tested the hypothesis that using culture medium of a hypertonic, more physiologic osmolarity during both two-dimensional (2D) expansion of mature bovine chondrocytes (MBCs) and their subsequent encapsulation culture in three-dimensional (3D) agarose hydrogel constructs produces improved engineered tissue construct mechanical and biochemical properties. Results demonstrate that 2D expansion of MBCs in hypertonic (NaCl) medium before encapsulation yielded improved construct mechanical properties. However, 3D encapsulation culture of cells in hypertonic (NaCl) medium yielded poorer construct mechanical properties. Osmolarity-related differences in construct biochemical content and organization may have contributed to differences in mechanical properties, as construct glycosaminoglycan content correlated moderately with construct mechanical properties, and construct collagen distribution varied between 3D osmotic culture groups. Results of this study suggest that application of hypertonic (NaCl) medium during 2D mature chondrocyte expansion, but not 3D encapsulated chondrocyte culture, may serve as a convenient and inexpensive method for improving mechanical properties of expanded cell-seeded constructs.