Real-world safety and effectiveness of mepolizumab for patients with eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis in Japan: A 48-week interim analysis of the MARS study.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to assess real-world, long-term safety/effectiveness of mepolizumab for eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA) in Japan. METHODS: The Mepolizumab long-term study to Assess Real-world Safety and effectiveness of EGPA in Japan (MARS) (GSK ID: 213684/NCT04551989) is an ongoing 96-week study of patients with EGPA who received four-weekly mepolizumab 300 mg subcutaneously for ≥96 weeks before study entry (baseline) and continued treatment. This interim analysis included safety from baseline to Week 48 (observation period) and clinical outcomes before mepolizumab and during the observation period. RESULTS: Of 118 patients enrolled, 29% (34/118) experienced adverse events (AEs), of which 13% (15/118) experienced serious AEs; none were considered mepolizumab related. The median oral corticosteroid (OCS) dose decreased from 6.9 (pre-mepolizumab) to 3.0 (baseline) and 2.0 mg/day (Weeks 45-48); the proportion of patients receiving no OCS increased from 8% to 32% and 38%, respectively. Patients experiencing clinical symptoms decreased from 94% (pre-mepolizumab) to 73% (baseline) and 67% (Week 48). During the observation period, 5% of patients experienced EGPA relapse; the rates of EGPA-related hospitalisations, EGPA-related emergency room/unscheduled visits, and asthma exacerbations were 0.05, 0.09, and 0.08 event/person-year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of mepolizumab treatment for ≥144 weeks (before baseline plus observation) were consistent with the known safety profile and allowed OCS dose reduction while improving disease control versus pre-treatment among patients with EGPA.

Hypereosinophilic syndrome in Europe: Retrospective study of treatment patterns, clinical manifestations, and healthcare resource utilization.

BACKGROUND: The burden of hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) in Europe is not well characterized. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate real-world patient characteristics, treatment patterns, clinical manifestations, and healthcare resource utilization for patients with HES from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. METHODS: In this retrospective, noninterventional study, data for patients with a physician-confirmed diagnosis of HES were abstracted from medical chart reviews. Patients were aged 6 years or older at the time of HES diagnosis and had 1 or more years of follow-up from the index date (first clinic visit between January 2015 and December 2019). Data on treatment patterns, comorbidities, clinical manifestations, clinical outcomes, and healthcare resource utilization were collected from diagnosis or index date to end of follow-up. RESULTS: Data for 280 patients were abstracted from medical charts by 121 physicians treating HES, with multiple specialties. Most patients (55%) had idiopathic HES, and 24% had myeloid HES; the median number (interquartile range [IQR]) of diagnostic tests per patient was 10 (6-12). The most common comorbidities were asthma (45%) and anxiety or depression (36%). Most patients (89%) used oral corticosteroids; 64% used immunosuppressants or cytotoxic agents, and 44% used biologics. Patients had a median (IQR) of 3 clinical manifestations (1-5), most commonly constitutional (63%), lung (49%), and skin (48%). Twenty-three percent of patients experienced a flare, and 40% had a complete treatment response. Some patients (30%) were hospitalized with a median (IQR) stay of 9 days (5-15) for HES-related issues. CONCLUSION: Patients with HES across 5 European countries had a substantial disease burden despite extensive oral corticosteroids treatment, highlighting the need for additional targeted therapies.

Trends in prevalence, treatment use, and disease burden in patients with eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis in Japan: real-world database analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Report the prevalence of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA) and describe oral corticosteroid (OCS) use and disease burden before and after mepolizumab approval in 2018 for EGPA in Japan. METHODS: Two retrospective studies (GSK IDs: 218083; 218084) used two databases: 1) the JMDC insurer database (Japanese health insurer claims) was used to report annual EGPA prevalence and OCS use in mepolizumab-treated patients; 2) Medical Data Vision database was used to report annual treatment use, OCS dose, relapses, and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in patients with EGPA. RESULTS: EGPA prevalence (95% confidence interval) increased from 4.2 (0.1, 23.4) in 2005 to 58.6 (53.2, 64.5) per 1,000,000 in 2020. Median OCS dose (mg/day) decreased from a range of 4.8-7.7 during 2010-2017 to 4.5-4.8 during 2018-2020 (lowest dose in 2020). The proportion of patients with prednisolone-equivalent daily OCS dose >10 mg decreased from 2017 (11.9%) to 2020 (10.3%), while the median dose halved. The proportion of patients with EGPA relapses (64.3% to 41.6%) and hospitalisation (27.8% to 23.6%) decreased from 2010 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: EGPA prevalence increased between 2005 and 2020. With the introduction of mepolizumab for EGPA in 2018, real-world OCS use, relapses and HCRU decreased.

Reduction in asthma exacerbation rate after mepolizumab treatment initiation in patients with severe asthma: A real-world database study in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the changes in asthma exacerbation, as well as in oral corticosteroid (OCS) use, exacerbation-related healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and healthcare costs before and after mepolizumab treatment initiation in patients with severe asthma who started treatment with mepolizumab in a real-world clinical setting in Japan. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, self-controlled study was conducted in Japan using a hospital-based administrative claims database. Patients who were diagnosed with asthma and who were new users of mepolizumab were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence rate of any asthma exacerbation/patient-year during the 12-month period before (baseline period) and after (follow-up period) the first mepolizumab prescription. Secondary outcome measures included the proportion of patients with ≥1 any asthma exacerbation, patients with exacerbation requiring hospitalization, the incidence rate of exacerbations requiring hospitalization/patient-year, the median daily OCS dose (OCS sparing effect), exacerbation-related HRU (hospitalization length, the proportion of patients with emergency visits, and the number of emergency/outpatient visits), and associated costs. RESULTS: Of the 377 patients included, 56.2% were ≥65 years of age. Following the first mepolizumab prescription, incidence rates for any asthma exacerbation were reduced by 40.6% (4.00/patient-year to 2.38/patient-year; the incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.60 [0.53-0.67]; p < 0.0001) from the baseline to follow-up periods. The incidence rate of exacerbations requiring hospitalization was reduced by 55.8% (0.37/patient-year to 0.16/patient-year) from the baseline to follow-up periods. The proportion of patients experiencing any exacerbation decreased from 84.4% to 57.8% and those requiring hospitalization decreased from 23.9% to 10.3% both from the baseline to follow-up periods. The median daily OCS dose decreased by 44.6% (median [interquartile range]: 6.7 [4.7-9.9] mg/day to 3.3 [0.9-5.6] mg/day) from the last baseline quarter to the 4th quarter of the follow-up period. All exacerbation-related HRUs decreased from the baseline to follow-up periods. Inpatient cost reduced by >50% (123,279 Japanese Yen [JPY]/patient-year vs. 57,283 JPY/patient-year), reducing the total cost by 80,716 JPY from the baseline to follow-up periods. CONCLUSION: Mepolizumab was effective in treating patients with severe asthma by reducing the incidence rates of exacerbations and exacerbation requiring hospitalization, OCS dose, exacerbation-related HRU, and cost in routine clinical practice in Japan.

Real-life effectiveness of mepolizumab in severe asthma: a systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVE: The efficacy and safety of mepolizumab in patients with severe eosinophilic asthma in randomized controlled trials is well established. Following approval of mepolizumab as add-on therapy for severe eosinophilic asthma in multiple regions worldwide, it is now important to determine its impact in real-world settings in which patients are not subject to stringent eligibility criteria. This systematic literature review assessed published evidence of clinical outcomes, safety, and healthcare resource use among patients with severe asthma receiving mepolizumab in real-world settings. DATA SOURCES: Searches were conducted in Embase, MEDLINE, and MEDLINE In-Process via Ovid. STUDY SELECTIONS: Eligible studies were observational, and enrolled ≥10 patients with asthma who received mepolizumab 100 mg subcutaneously. Data extracted included annualized exacerbation rate, mean daily oral corticosteroid (OCS) dose, proportion of patients using OCS, several measures of lung function, patient-reported asthma control and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), safety, and economic burden. RESULTS: Twenty-three articles (22 unique studies; 2,040 patients with severe asthma on mepolizumab) were identified. Mepolizumab use was associated with a reduction in annualized exacerbation rates (requiring OCS) of 54-97% (p < 0.05 in all studies), reduced mean/median daily OCS doses, and OCS discontinuation during follow-up (27-84% of patients). Improvements in lung function, asthma control, and HRQoL were also observed. The most commonly reported adverse events included headache and arthralgia; discontinuation of mepolizumab due to adverse events occurred in 0-10.6% of patients. CONCLUSION: Findings show that patients with severe asthma consistently demonstrate clinically relevant benefits with mepolizumab treatment in a real-world setting.Supplemental data for this article is available online at at www.tandfonline.com/ijas .

Financial benefit of a smoking cessation program prior to elective colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking increases the risk of postoperative complications nearly 2-fold. Preoperative smoking cessation programs may reduce complications as well as overall postoperative costs. We aim to create an economic evaluation framework to estimate the potential value of preoperative smoking cessation programs for patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery. METHODS: A decision-analytic model from the payer perspective was developed to integrate the costs and incidence of 90-day postoperative complications and readmissions for a cohort of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery after a smoking cessation program versus usual care. Complication, readmission, and cost data were derived from a cohort of 534 current smokers and recent quitters undergoing elective colorectal resections in Washington State's Surgical Care and Outcomes Assessment Program linked to Washington State's Comprehensive Hospital Abstract Reporting System. Smoking cessation program efficacy was obtained from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainty. RESULTS: For a cohort of patients, the base case estimates imply that the total direct medical costs for patients who underwent a preoperative smoking cessation program were on average $304 (95% CI: $40-$571) lower per patient than those under usual care during the first 90 days after surgery. The model was most sensitive to the odds of recent quitters developing complications or requiring readmission, and smoking program efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: A preoperative smoking cessation program is predicted to be cost-saving over the global postoperative period if the cost of the intervention is below $304 per patient. This framework allows the value of smoking cessation programs of variable cost and effectiveness to be determined.

Correction to: Effect of inhaled corticosteroid particle size on asthma efficacy and safety outcomes: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

CORRECTION: After publication of this work [1] it was noticed that the author name Rachael L. DiSantostefano was not spelt correctly as there was a space in her surname between 'Di' and 'Santostefano'. The publisher apologises for this error.

Effect of inhaled corticosteroid particle size on asthma efficacy and safety outcomes: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are the primary treatment for persistent asthma. Currently available ICS have differing particle size due to both formulation and propellant, and it has been postulated that this may impact patient outcomes. This structured literature review and meta-analysis compared the effect of small and standard particle size ICS on lung function, symptoms, rescue use (when available) and safety in patients with asthma as assessed in head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: A systematic literature search of MEDLINE was performed to identify RCTs (1998-2014) evaluating standard size (fluticasone propionate-containing medications) versus small particle size ICS medication in adults and children with asthma. Efficacy outcomes included forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), morning peak expiratory flow (PEF), symptom scores, % predicted forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF25-75%), and rescue medication use. Safety outcomes were also evaluated when available. RESULTS: Twenty-three independent trials that met the eligibility criteria were identified. Benefit-risk plots did not demonstrate any clinically meaningful differences across the five efficacy endpoints considered and no appreciable differences were noted for most safety endpoints. Meta-analysis results, using a random-effects model, demonstrated no significant difference between standard and small size particle ICS medications in terms of effects on mean change from baseline FEV1 (L) (-0.011, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.037, 0.014 [N = 3524]), morning PEF (L/min) (medium/low doses: -3.874, 95% CI: -10.915, 3.166 [N = 1911]; high/high-medium doses: 5.551, 95% CI: -1.948, 13.049 [N = 749]) and FEF25-75% predicted (-2.418, 95% CI: -6.400; 1.564 [N = 115]). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available literature, no clinically significant differences in efficacy or safety were observed comparing small and standard particle size ICS medications for the treatment of asthma. TRIAL REGISTRATION: GSK Clinical Study Register No: 202012 .

Ketorolac Use and Postoperative Complications in Gastrointestinal Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between ketorolac use and postoperative complications. BACKGROUND: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may impair wound healing and increase the risk of anastomotic leak in colon surgery. Studies to date have been limited by sample size, inability to identify confounding, and a focus limited to colon surgery. METHODS: Ketorolac use, reinterventions, emergency department (ED) visits, and readmissions in adults (≥ 18 years) undergoing gastrointestinal (GI) operations was assessed in a nationwide cohort using the MarketScan Database (2008-2012). RESULTS: Among 398,752 patients (median age 52, 45% male), 55% underwent colorectal surgery, whereas 45% had noncolorectal GI surgery. Five percent of patients received ketorolac. Adjusting for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, surgery type/indication, and preoperative medications, patients receiving ketorolac had higher odds of reintervention (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.32), ED visit (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.37-1.51), and readmission within 30 days (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.18) compared to those who did not receive ketorolac. Ketorolac use was associated with readmissions related to anastomotic complications (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.06-1.36). Evaluating only admissions with ≤ 3 days duration to exclude cases where ketorolac might have been used for complication-related pain relief, the odds of complications associated with ketorolac were even greater. CONCLUSIONS: Use of intravenous ketorolac was associated with greater odds of reintervention, ED visit, and readmission in both colorectal and noncolorectal GI surgery. Given this confirmatory evaluation of other reports of a negative association and the large size of this cohort, clinicians should exercise caution when using ketorolac in patients undergoing GI surgery.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Cost of Initial Care for Medicare Patients With Advanced Ovarian Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: In preparation for payment reform, we evaluated Medicare payments for the initial treatment of patients with advanced ovarian cancer and assessed factors responsible for variation. METHODS: Using the linked SEER-Medicare database, we identified a cohort of 9,491 women aged 65 years or older with stage III/IV epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2007. Diagnostic and procedural codes specific to the care of ovarian cancer were used to estimate total medical costs for the treatment of ovarian cancer. Costs were adjusted for geography and for inflation to the 2009 US dollar. NCCN Guideline-consistent care was defined as surgery and 6 cycles of chemotherapy. A generalized linear regression was performed to assess factors associated with variability in cost. RESULTS: The mean total payment per patient in the initial treatment period was $65,908 (range of means, $30,745-$96,360). Increasing medical comorbidity, use of PET/CT, surgical complications, and readmissions were associated with increased costs. Treatment with NCCN Guideline-consistent surgery and chemotherapy had a mean annual cost of $85,987 compared with $89,149 for non-NCCN Guideline-consistent treatment with surgery and chemotherapy. The cost of surgery and chemotherapy that was not consistent with NCCN Guidelines was approximately $7,000 more than the cost of therapy that was consistent (P<.001) CONCLUSIONS: The financial burden of caring for patients with ovarian cancer is substantial. Treatment that is consistent with NCCN recommendations for treating advanced ovarian cancer, which is shown to have improved outcomes, is not associated with higher cost.

Assessing surgeon behavior change after anastomotic leak in colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Recency effect suggests that people disproportionately value events from the immediate past when making decisions, but the extent of this impact on surgeons' decisions is unknown. This study evaluates for recency effect in surgeons by examining use of preventative leak testing before and after colorectal operations with anastomotic leaks. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective cohort of adult patients (≥18 y) undergoing elective colorectal operations at Washington State hospitals participating in the Surgical Care and Outcomes Assessment Program (2006-2013). The main outcome measure was surgeons' change in leak testing from 6 mo before to 6 mo after an anastomotic leak occurred. RESULTS: Across 4854 elective colorectal operations performed by 282 surgeons at 44 hospitals, there was a leak rate of 2.6% (n = 124). The 40 leaks (32%) in which the anastomosis was not tested occurred across 25 surgeons. While the ability to detect an overall difference in use of leak testing was limited by small sample size, nine (36%) of 25 surgeons increased their leak testing by 5% points or more after leaks in cases where the anastomosis was not tested. Surgeons who increased their leak testing more frequently performed operations for diverticulitis (45% versus 33%), more frequently began their cases laparoscopically (65% versus 37%), and had longer mean operative times (195 ± 99 versus 148 ± 87 min), all P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Recency effect was demonstrated by only one-third of eligible surgeons. Understanding the extent to which clinical decisions may be influenced by recency effect may be important in crafting quality improvement initiatives that require clinician behavior change.

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty. METHODS: Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost. RESULTS: In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions. CONCLUSIONS: All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Need for multicriteria evaluation of generic drug policies.

Policymakers tend to focus on improving patented drug policies because they are under pressure from patients, physicians, and manufacturers to increase access to novel therapies. The success of pharmaceutical innovation over the last few decades has led to the availability of many off-patent drugs to treat disease areas with the greatest public health need. Therefore, the success of public health programs in improving the health status of the total population is highly dependent on the efficiency of generic drug policies. The objective of this article was to explore factors influencing the true efficiency of generic prescription drug policies in supporting public health initiatives in the developed world. Health care decision makers often assess the efficiency of generic drug policies by the level of price erosion and market share of generics. Drug quality, bioequivalence, in some cases drug formulations, supply reliability, medical adherence and persistence, health outcomes, and nondrug costs, however, are also attributes of success for generic drug policies. Further methodological research is needed to measure and improve the efficiency of generic drug policies. This also requires extension of the evidence base of the impact of generic drugs, partly based on real-world evidence. Multicriteria decision analysis may assist policymakers and researchers to evaluate the true value of generic drugs.

Systematic literature review of asthma biologic self-administration enhanced by a patient perspective.

Background: Several biologics for the treatment of severe asthma are available as self-administration devices. Objective: We performed a systematic literature review to understand the use, benefits, and challenges of these self-administration devices. Methods: Electronic databases and conference proceedings were searched using terms for asthma, biologic treatment, and at-home/self-administration (GSK study 213094). Publications were scanned for relevance using prespecified Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes, Study Design (PICOS) criteria. Data on efficacy, safety, patient experience, and economic outcomes were extracted; study quality was assessed. A firsthand patient perspective was obtained. Results: Thirty-five of 504 records met the inclusion criteria. Across four phase 3 studies, ≥95% of biologic self-administrations were successful on the basis of predefined criteria. At-home self-administration was preferred over in-clinic administration by 43-96% of patients across 5 studies. Most patients (≥89%) in two phase 3 studies reported completing self-administration easily without repeated reference to instructions; high proportions of patients (≥98%) were confident in their ability to self-administer their biologic, and ≥96% rated it as extremely, very or moderately easy to self-administer. Across 16 studies reporting efficacy data, there was evidence of reduced blood eosinophil counts and improved asthma control with biologic self-administration, with improved health-related quality of life shown across 6 studies. Economic outcomes data were limited. From a patient perspective, autonomy is the major benefit of self-administration. Conclusion: Although more evidence is needed, this systematic literature review provides consistent evidence of high injection success rates and, supported by a patient perspective, preference for self-administration of biologics among patients with severe asthma.

Disease Burden, Treatment Patterns and Asthma Control in Adult Patients with Asthma in China: A Real-World Study.

Purpose: To inform better asthma management in China, this study aimed to comprehensively investigate clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, asthma control status, exacerbations, and humanistic burden among adult patients seeking hospital-based asthma care by analyzing data from Adelphi Asthma Disease Specific Program conducted in China. Patients and Methods: All information was collected on survey date (August-December 2018) from medical records, physicians, or patients, without follow-up being conducted. Results are summarized descriptively for the overall population as well as subgroups defined by GINA 2018 treatment step. Results: Of the included 765 patients, 46.0%, 40.4%, and 29.2% had undergone lung function, blood eosinophil count, and specific immunoglobulin E/radioallergosorbent testing, and 17.2%, 24.1%, and 58.7% were managed at GINA Steps 1-2, 3, and 4-5, respectively. Asthma was not well controlled in 57.3% of patients based on definitions adapted from the ERS/ATS and 10.7% of patients had experienced ≥1 severe exacerbation in the preceding year. According to patient self-reporting (n=603), the mean (SD) was 0.9 (0.1) for utility on EQ-5D-3L and was 7.8% (10.4%), 36.9% (20.0%), 40.8% (22.2%), and 37.9% (22.3%) for absenteeism, presenteeism, work productivity loss, and activity impairment, respectively, on WPAI. Both asthma control and humanistic burden worsened with progressive GINA treatment steps. Conclusion: In patients seeking hospital-based asthma care in China, lung function and biomarker tests were underutilized, impairment in productivity and quality of life was observed, and more than half did not achieve well-controlled asthma despite approximately 60% being managed at GINA treatment Steps 4-5. These findings highlight the urgent need for optimizing asthma management in China.

Sub-Optimal Disease Control and Low Blood Eosinophil Testing Frequency in Chinese Adult Patients with Asthma Receiving GINA Step 4/5 Treatment: A Real-World Study.

Purpose: To inform effective management strategies for severe asthma in China, this study aimed to comprehensively characterize clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, disease control status, and healthcare resource utilization among patients on GINA Step 4/5 therapies by analyzing data from the Adelphi Asthma Disease Specific Program conducted in China. Patients and methods: All information was retrieved from medical records or collected from physicians and patients on the survey date (August-December 2018); no follow-up was conducted. Results were summarized descriptively for patients on GINA Step 4/5 therapies, who were pooled from a consecutive sample (comprising three or more consecutive patients with physician-diagnosed asthma from each participating physician) and an oversample (comprising the next two patients with physician-perceived severe asthma from each participating physician). Results: Of the included patients (n=754), 51.5% had ever had a blood eosinophil measurement taken, 22.1% had available records for their most recent blood eosinophil measurements (68.9% of them had an elevated level ≥150 cells/µL), 39.9% had ever been tested for specific immunoglobulin E or radioallergosorbent, and 8.0% were prescribed maintenance oral corticosteroids. Asthma was not well controlled in 69.2% of patients. In the prior year, 27.1% experienced at least one severe exacerbation and 22.8% experienced at least one hospitalization (emergency visit or overnight stay) due to asthma. Conclusion: In Chinese patients with asthma on GINA Step 4/5 therapies, biomarker testing was underutilized, asthma was not well controlled, and severe exacerbations were not infrequent. These findings highlight the urgent need for optimized asthma management for patients on GINA Step 4/5 therapies in China.