Effective policies to promote sugar reduction in soft drinks: lessons from a comparison of six European countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have sought to incentivise soft drinks manufacturers to reduce sugar in their products as part of efforts to address a growing prevalence of obesity. Are their policies effective? METHODS: Using a difference-in-differences design, we compared trends in the sugar content of 10 695 new sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) launched between 2010 and 2019 in six European markets, including the UK and France (taxes designed to incentivise reformulation), the Netherlands (policy based on voluntary agreements to reduce sugar), Germany, Italy and Spain (no national policies). RESULTS: The announcement in 2016 and adoption in 2018 of the UK tax led to yearly reductions in average sugar content of 17% (95% CI: 15-19%) to 31% (13-48%) between 2016 and 2019, compared to 2015, while the 2018 French tax produced a 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) sugar reduction only in 2018, compared to 2017, shortly after it was redesigned to provide a stronger incentive for reformulation. Voluntary agreements implemented in the Netherlands in 2014 led to an 8% (95% CI: 4-13%) sugar reduction only in 2015, compared to 2013. CONCLUSION: The analysis supports the conclusions that sugar reductions in new SSBs have been greater in countries that have adopted specific policies to encourage them; a sugar-based tax design encourages more sugar reductions than a volume-based tax design; the tax rate and the amount of the tax reduction from switching to the next lower tier in a sugar-based tax design may be critical to incentivize reformulation.

Market concentration and the healthiness of packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage sales across the European single market.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between market concentration and diversity, as indicators of market structure, and the healthiness of food and beverage sales across Europe. DESIGN: Market share (MS) data per country were used to calculate market concentration, assessed by the four-firm concentration ratio and market diversity, and by the number of companies with ≥1 % MS and the number of companies uniquely present in one European country. The healthiness of food sales was assessed by applying the NOVA classification (level of processing). Simple and multiple linear regressions were performed to assess the relationship between market concentration, diversity and the healthiness of food and beverage sales. SETTING: The European single market. PARTICIPANTS: The twenty-seven European single market member states for which Euromonitor sales data were available at the most fine-grained Euromonitor packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage product subcategory level. RESULTS: Increased market concentration with a country and a product category fixed effect significantly predicted increased sales of ultra-processed packaged food products. There was insufficient data variability in the level of processing of non-alcoholic beverage product categories to formulate conclusions for non-alcoholic beverages. Increased market diversity in turn significantly predicted reduced country-level sales of ultra-processed products. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated a relationship between market structure and the healthiness of packed food products sold on the European market. However, more research with detailed nutritional data is warranted to document and quantify this interaction.

A detailed mapping of the food industry in the European single market: similarities and differences in market structure across countries and sectors.

BACKGROUND: Food environments are influenced by food industries (packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers; supermarkets and quick service restaurants). An important source of this influence is the significant market power held by a limited number of food companies. Market structure analysis, as part of a broader market power research agenda, has received limited attention from the public health community. The aim of this study was to analyse similarities and differences in market structure across countries and industries in the European Single Market. METHODS: The companies with the largest market share at the national level for each industry were identified from Euromonitor sales data in 2017/18. The market structure was assessed by the following metrics: the number of global brand owners with ≥1% market share per country, the number of companies unique for one European Single Market member state, the most sold packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage categories, the number of quick-service restaurants and supermarkets per 1000 inhabitants and market concentration by means of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and the four firm concentration ratio (CR4). CR4-values > 40% and HHI-values > 2000 indicate concentrated markets with limited competition. RESULTS: The leading packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers and the most sold food and beverage product categories were similar across countries in Europe. The observed levels of concentration were however different. Average CR4-values ranged from 21 to 72% among packaged food product markets and 60 to 76% for non-alcoholic beverage product markets. Average CR4-values for quick service restaurants and supermarkets were 50 and 60%, respectively. Across European countries the same leading quick-service restaurants were identified, while this was not the case for supermarkets. CONCLUSIONS: This study forms an important basis to understand key aspects of market structure of the European food industry, observing clear differences between food industries and European Single Market member states. This has potential implications for the implementation of food environment policies at different levels of jurisdiction.

Assessment of the Commitments and Performance of the European Food Industry to Improve Population Nutrition.

Objectives: Food companies could play an important role in improving population diets, but often escape accountability through unspecific commitments. This study evaluated nutrition-related commitments and estimated performance of the largest packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage manufacturers, supermarkets and quick-service restaurants (QSR) in Europe. Methods: To quantitatively assess companies' publicly available commitments in 2020, the "Business Impact Assessment on Obesity and Population Nutrition" was applied. The proportion of sales from ultra-processed and "unhealthy" food categories (product categories not-permitted to be marketed to children) and over time changes in the number of QSR transactions and QSR and supermarket outlets were calculated. Results: Company commitments fell short of best practice recommendations (median overall score of 21%, range: 1%-62%). Food and beverage companies generated 82% (15%-100%) and 58% (1%-100%) sales from ultra-processed and "unhealthy" products, respectively. The number of QSR outlets and transactions substantially increased in Europe since 2011, while QSR commitments to improve population nutrition remained limited. Conclusion: Whilst most companies made some nutrition-related commitments, they did not comply with best practice recommendations. A large proportion of sales was generated from ultra-processed/unhealthy products and QSR outlets increased. Government regulations are urgently needed.

The long-run effects of war on health: Evidence from World War II in France.

We investigate the effects of early-life exposure to war on adult health outcomes including cancer, hypertension, angina, infarction, diabetes and obesity. We combine data from the French prospective cohort study E3N on women employed in the French National Education with historical data on World War II. To identify causal effects, we exploit exogenous spatial and temporal variation in war exposure related to the German invasion of France during the Battle of France. The number of French military casualties at the level of the postcode area serves as main measure of exposure. Our results suggest that exposure to the war during the first 5 years of life has significant adverse effects on health in adulthood. A 10 percent increase in the number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the individual's postcode area of birth increases the probability of suffering from any of the health conditions considered in this study by 0.08 percentage points. This is relative to a mean of 49 percent for the sample as a whole.

Associations between early-life food deprivation during World War II and risk of hypertension and type 2 diabetes at adulthood.

The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) framework suggests that early-life experiences affect long-term health outcomes. We tested this hypothesis by estimating the long-run effects of exposure to World War II-related food deprivation during childhood and adolescence on the risk of suffering from hypertension and type 2 diabetes at adulthood for 90,226 women from the French prospective cohort study E3N. We found that the experience of food deprivation during early-life was associated with a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (+0.7%, 95% CI: 0.073-1.37%) and hypertension (+2.6%, 95% CI: 0.81-4.45%). Effects were stronger for individuals exposed at younger ages. Exposed individuals also achieved lower levels of education, slept less, and were more frequently smokers than unexposed individuals. These results are compatible with both the latency and the pathway models proposed in the DOHaD framework which theorise the association between early life exposure and adult health through both a direct link and an indirect link where changes in health determinants mediate health outcomes.

The impact of the French soda tax on prices and purchases. An ex post evaluation.

We estimate the price and consumption effects of the 2012 French tax on sweetened non-alcoholic drinks using a difference-in-difference approach. Our identification strategy exploits Italian data as a natural control group. We use French and Italian Consumer Price Indices, purchase prices and quantities from the 2011 and 2012 Kantar and GfK home-scan surveys for two French regions and two neighbouring Italian regions, and expenditure data from the 2011 and 2012 Italian Expenditure Survey. We check for the robustness of our results by applying the difference-in-difference models using only French data and considering water as the benchmark (control) good. We find that the tax is transmitted to the prices of taxed drinks, with full transmission for soft drinks and partial transmission for fruit juices. The evidence on purchase responses is mixed and less robust, indicating at most a very small reduction in soft drink purchases (about half a litre per capita per year), an impact which would be consistent with the low tax rate. We find suggestive evidence of a larger response by the sub-sample of heavy purchasers. Fruit juices and water do not seem to have been affected by the tax.

Getting more people on the stairs: The impact of point-of-decision prompts.

Individuals rarely achieve investment activities characterised by up-front costs and delayed benefits. Point-of-decision prompts (PDPs) provide information about a better alternative or a deterrent to the behavioural standard at the moment the decision is made and may affect behaviour by helping individuals perform this type of investment activities. We conducted a field experiment to assess the effects of a PDP intervention that encourages taking the stairs rather than the escalator in three Paris (France) Metro stations for eight weeks from April to July 2014. In total, we followed up 205 individuals and the data show that PDPs have an immediate, albeit decaying, peaked effect on individuals' stair use, with a stronger effect when weak physical effort is made salient. However, the intervention did not change individuals' stair-use habits. In the best-case scenario, the effects last two weeks after the intervention ends. Our preferred explanation is that PDPs act as "cues" but people become accustomed to them and in the end no longer notice them. These findings suggest that a PDP intervention is not sufficient to modify individuals investment in activities with immediate costs and delayed benefits in the long-run.

Mandatory labels, taxes and market forces: An empirical evaluation of fat policies.

The public-health community views mandatory Front-of-Pack (FOP) nutrition labels and nutritional taxes as promising tools to control the growth of food-related chronic diseases. This paper uses household scanner data to propose an ex-ante evaluation and comparison of these two policy options for the fromage blanc and dessert yogurt market. In most markets, labelling is voluntary and firms display fat labels only on the FOP of low-fat products to target consumers who do not want to eat fat. We here separately identify consumer preferences for fat and for FOP fat labels by exploiting an exogenous difference in legal labelling requirements between these two product categories. Estimates of demand curves are combined with a supply model of oligopolistic price competition to simulate policies. We find that a feasible ad valorem fat tax dominates a mandatory FOP-label policy from an economic perspective, but both are equally effective in reducing average fat purchases.