RESUMO
The effective reproductive number Rt has taken a central role in the scientific, political, and public discussion during the COVID-19 pandemic, with numerous real-time estimates of this quantity routinely published. Disagreement between estimates can be substantial and may lead to confusion among decision-makers and the general public. In this work, we compare different estimates of the national-level effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in Germany in 2020 and 2021. We consider the agreement between estimates from the same method but published at different time points (within-method agreement) as well as retrospective agreement across eight different approaches (between-method agreement). Concerning the former, estimates from some methods are very stable over time and hardly subject to revisions, while others display considerable fluctuations. To evaluate between-method agreement, we reproduce the estimates generated by different groups using a variety of statistical approaches, standardizing analytical choices to assess how they contribute to the observed disagreement. These analytical choices include the data source, data pre-processing, assumed generation time distribution, statistical tuning parameters, and various delay distributions. We find that in practice, these auxiliary choices in the estimation of Rt may affect results at least as strongly as the selection of the statistical approach. They should thus be communicated transparently along with the estimates.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Número Básico de Reprodução , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Alemanha/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks. However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at various stages of data gathering and reporting. As a result, recent values are biased downward, which obscures current trends. Statistical nowcasting techniques can be employed to correct these biases, allowing for accurate characterization of recent developments and thus enhancing situational awareness. In this paper, we present a preregistered real-time assessment of eight nowcasting approaches, applied by independent research teams to German 7-day hospitalization incidences during the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator played an important role in the management of the outbreak in Germany and was linked to levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions via certain thresholds. Due to its definition, in which hospitalization counts are aggregated by the date of case report rather than admission, German hospitalization incidences are particularly affected by delays and can take several weeks or months to fully stabilize. For this study, all methods were applied from 22 November 2021 to 29 April 2022, with probabilistic nowcasts produced each day for the current and 28 preceding days. Nowcasts at the national, state, and age-group levels were collected in the form of quantiles in a public repository and displayed in a dashboard. Moreover, a mean and a median ensemble nowcast were generated. We find that overall, the compared methods were able to remove a large part of the biases introduced by delays. Most participating teams underestimated the importance of very long delays, though, resulting in nowcasts with a slight downward bias. The accompanying prediction intervals were also too narrow for almost all methods. Averaged over all nowcast horizons, the best performance was achieved by a model using case incidences as a covariate and taking into account longer delays than the other approaches. For the most recent days, which are often considered the most relevant in practice, a mean ensemble of the submitted nowcasts performed best. We conclude by providing some lessons learned on the definition of nowcasting targets and practical challenges.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Incidência , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , HospitalizaçãoRESUMO
Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95%â¯CI:â¯â¯91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Influenza Humana , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial , Vírus Sincicial Respiratório Humano , Adulto , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We investigated the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as a new service of the statutory health insurance (SHI) on the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Germany. In addition, PrEP needs and access barriers were analyzed. METHODS: The following data were evaluated as part of the evaluation project: HIV and syphilis notification data and extended surveillance by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), pharmacy prescription data, SHI routine data, PrEP use in HIV-specialty care centers, Checkpoint, the BRAHMS and PrApp studies, as well as a community board. RESULTS: The majority of PrEP users were male (98-99%), primarily aged between 25-45 years, and predominantly of German nationality or origin (67-82%). The majority were men who have sex with men (99%). With regard to HIV infections, PrEP proved to be highly effective. There were only isolated cases of HIV infections (HIV incidence rate 0.08/100 person years); in most cases the suspected reason was low adherence. The incidences of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis did not increase but remained almost the same or even decreased. A need for information on PrEP for people in trans*/non-binary communities, sex workers, migrants, and drug users emerged. Needs-based services for target groups at increased risk of HIV are necessary. DISCUSSION: PrEP proved to be a very effective HIV prevention method. The partly feared indirect negative influences on STI rates were not confirmed in this study. Due to the temporal overlap with the containment measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, a longer observation period would be desirable for a conclusive assessment.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Infecções por HIV , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis , Sífilis , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição/métodos , Homossexualidade Masculina , Sífilis/epidemiologia , Sífilis/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Alemanha/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/prevenção & controle , Seguro SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: HIV infections which are diagnosed at advanced stages are associated with significantly poorer health outcomes. In Germany, the proportion of persons living with HIV who are diagnosed at later stages has remained continuously high. This study examined the impact of regional socioeconomic deprivation on the timing of HIV diagnosis. METHODS: We used data from the national statutory notification of newly diagnosed HIV infections between 2011 and 2018 with further information on the timing of diagnosis determined by the BED-Capture-ELISA test (BED-CEIA) and diagnosing physicians. Data on regional socioeconomic deprivation were derived from the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (GISD). Outcome measures were a non-recent infection based on the BED-CEIA result or an infection at the stage of AIDS. The effect of socioeconomic deprivation on the timing of diagnosis was analysed using multivariable Poisson regression models with cluster-robust error variance. RESULTS: Overall, 67.5% (n = 10,810) of the persons were diagnosed with a non-recent infection and 15.2% (n = 2746) with AIDS. The proportions were higher among persons with heterosexual contact compared to men who have sex with men (MSM) (76.8% non-recent and 14.9% AIDS vs. 61.7% non-recent and 11.4% AIDS). MSM living in highly deprived regions in the countryside (< 100 k residents) were more likely to have a non-recent infection (aPR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.05-1.28) as well as AIDS (aPR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.08-1.85) at the time of diagnosis compared to MSM in less deprived regions in the countryside. No differences were observed among MSM from towns (100 k ≤ 1 million residents) or major cities (≥ 1 million residents), and no differences overall in the heterosexual transmission group. CONCLUSIONS: An effect of socioeconomic deprivation on the timing of HIV diagnosis was found only in MSM from countryside regions. We suggest that efforts in promoting HIV awareness and regular HIV testing are increased for heterosexual persons irrespective of socioeconomic background, and for MSM with a focus on those living in deprived regions in the countryside.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Estudos Transversais , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Homossexualidade Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
German national surveillance data analysis shows that hospitalisation odds associated with Omicron lineage BA.1 or BA.2 infections are up to 80% lower than with Delta infection, primarily in ≥ 35-year-olds. Hospitalised vaccinated Omicron cases' proportions (2.3% for both lineages) seemed lower than those of the unvaccinated (4.4% for both lineages). Independent of vaccination status, the hospitalisation frequency among cases with Delta seemed nearly threefold higher (8.3%) than with Omicron (3.0% for both lineages), suggesting that Omicron inherently causes less severe disease.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
We investigated three SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 childcare centre and related household outbreaks. Despite group cohorting, cases occurred in almost all groups, i.e. also among persons without close contact. Children's secondary attack rates (SAR) were similar to adults (childcare centres: 23% vs 30%; p = 0.15; households: 32% vs 39%; p = 0.27); child- and adult-induced household outbreaks also led to similar SAR. With the advent of B.1.1.7, susceptibility and infectiousness of children and adults seem to converge. Public health measures should be revisited accordingly.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Criança , Surtos de Doenças , Alemanha/epidemiologia , HumanosRESUMO
The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.
Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Causas de Morte , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Sistemas Computacionais , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovemRESUMO
As part of the national influenza pandemic preparedness, surveillance systems have been established in Germany in addition to the mandatory notifications according to the Protection Against Infection Act. The aim of these systems is the description, analysis, and evaluation of the epidemiology of acute respiratory infections (ARIs), the identification of the circulating viruses, and the trend. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the systems have been expanded to enable monitoring of infections with SARS-CoV2.Three systems are presented: GrippeWeb, the primary care sentinel Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza with its electronic reporting module SEEDARE, and the ICD-10-based hospital sentinel ICOSARI. With these systems, ARIs can be monitored at the population, outpatient, and inpatient levels. In combination with the monitoring of mortality, these systems provide important information on the frequency of different stages of disease severity in the population. In order to expand the systems to SARS-CoV2, only a few adjustments were needed.As the case definitions for ARIs were preserved, historical baselines of the systems can still be used for comparison. All systems are structured in such a way that stable and established reference values are available for calculating weekly proportions and rates.This is an important addition to the mandatory reporting system of infectious diseases in Germany, which depends on the particular testing strategy, the number of tests performed, and on specific case definitions, which are adapted as required.The surveillance systems have proven to be feasible and efficient in the COVID-19 pandemic, even when compared internationally.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Infecções Respiratórias , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções Respiratórias/diagnóstico , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.
Assuntos
Causas de Morte/tendências , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Coronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Surtos de Doenças , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Influenza Humana/diagnóstico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Vigilância da População , Dados Preliminares , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) annually publishes an estimate of the number of new HIV diagnoses and the total number of people diagnosed with HIV in Germany. So far, only medication prescription data have served as secondary data as a basis for such estimates. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we used billing data from the outpatient sector to estimate the number of patients with newly diagnosed HIV, the overall number of patients with HIV, and the HIV test rates in those with statutory health insurance in Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed billing data from the outpatient sector for all persons covered by statutory health insurance between 2009 and 2018. We designed annual cohorts of patient for the years 2011 to 2017 and analyzed the number of HIV diagnoses, the number of HIV-related care services, and HIV testing rates. RESULTS: Every year, about 6000 new patients with HIV are treated in outpatient care. The total number of patients with HIV in 2011 was about 59,300 (0.106%), which increased to 80,800 (0.141%) in 2017. The average increase in the total number of patients per year of about 3600 was significantly below the estimated number of newly treated patients for each year. CONCLUSION: The results may provide an indication of patients receiving HIV care in the outpatient sector. The secondary data provide the possibility of developing another epidemiological data source for population-based representation of the administrative prevalence of HIV. To clarify over-representation, there is a need for further research on patients who are using outpatient care for the first time.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Pacientes Ambulatoriais , Assistência Ambulatorial , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , PrevalênciaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Despite high hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates, HCV incidence among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (HIV-infected MSM) in Germany rose before HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). We model what intervention can achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination target of an 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030 among HIV-infected MSM in Berlin. METHODS: An HCV transmission model among HIV-diagnosed MSM was calibrated to Berlin (rising HCV incidence and high rates of HCV testing and treatment). We modeled the HCV incidence among HIV-diagnosed MSM in Berlin until 2030 (relative to 2015 WHO baseline) under scenarios of DAA scale-up with or without behavior change (among HIV-diagnosed MSM and/or all MSM). RESULTS: Continuing current treatment rates will marginally reduce the HCV incidence among HIV-diagnosed MSM in Berlin by 2030. Scaling up DAA treatment rates, beginning in 2018, to 100% of newly diagnosed HCV infections within 3 months of diagnosis and 25% each year of previously diagnosed and untreated HCV infections could reduce the HCV incidence by 61% (95% confidence interval, 55.4%-66.7%) by 2030. The WHO target would likely be achieved by combining DAA scale-up with a 40% reduction in HCV transmission among HIV-diagnosed MSM and a 20% reduction among HIV-undiagnosed or HIV-uninfected MSM. DISCUSSION: HCV elimination among HIV-infected MSM in Berlin likely requires combining DAA scale-up with moderately effective behavioral interventions to reduce risk among all MSM.
Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Terapia Comportamental/métodos , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/epidemiologia , Homossexualidade Masculina , Adulto , Berlim/epidemiologia , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Hepatite C Crônica/transmissão , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Modelos Estatísticos , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: During the summers of 2003 and 2015, heat was found to be the cause of a substantial number of deaths in Germany. Until now, estimates for the total number of heat-related deaths were only available regionally in Germany. For the summer of 2003, an analysis for Baden-Württemberg was extrapolated to the whole of Germany. OBJECTIVES: Our analysis tries to prove a stable statistical relationship between heat and mortality and to use this to quantify the number of heat-related deaths in Germany between the years 2001 and 2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS: By fitting a nonlinear statistical model, we estimated exposure-response curves that describe the influence of heat on the mortality rate. The performance of different indicators for heat stress was compared. RESULTS: The comparison of the different indicators for heat showed that the weekly mean temperature was most useful to explain the course of the weekly mortality during the summer. The relation between mortality rate and weekly mean temperature varied between age groups and regions in Germany (north, middle, south). The age groups (75-84) and (85+) were most affected by heat. The highest number of heat-related deaths was 7600 (95% CI 5500-9900), found for the summer 2003, followed by 6200 (4000; 8000) in the summer 2006 and 6100 (4000; 8300) in the summer 2015. CONCLUSIONS: We could show that even in weekly data on mortality, a clear influence of heat could be identified. A national surveillance of mortality that allows real-time monitoring would be desirable.
Assuntos
Transtornos de Estresse por Calor/mortalidade , Temperatura Alta , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Mortalidade , Estações do Ano , TemperaturaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most commonly reported sexually transmitted infection in Europe. In Germany, Ct screening is offered free of charge to pregnant women since 1995 and to women < 25 years of age since 2008. For symptomatic individuals, testing is covered by statutory health insurance. Study results have shown that repeat Ct infection occurs in 10-20% of previously infected women and men. Our aim was to describe persons tested for Ct and to investigate the determinants of (repeat) Ct infection in women and men in Germany. METHODS: We analysed Ct test results from men and women tested between 2008 and 2014 in laboratories participating in the German Chlamydia trachomatis Laboratory Sentinel surveillance. Reinfection was defined as at least 2 positive laboratory tests within more than 30 days. We performed logistic regression stratified by sex and, for women, reason for testing to determine the effect of previous test results and age group on subsequent test results. RESULTS: In total, 2,574,635 Ct tests could be attributed to 1,815,494 women and 123,033 men. 5% of women and 14% of men tested positive at least once. 15-19- and 20-24-year-old women tested positive at least once respectively in 6.8 and 6.0%, while men respectively in 16.6 and 21.2%. Altogether, 23.1% of tested women and 11.9% of tested men were tested repeatedly between 2008 and 2014. Among those who previously tested positive, reinfection occurred in 2.0% of women and 6.6% of men. Likelihood to be tested Ct positive was higher in women and men with a positive Ct test in the past compared to previously tested Ct negative, odds ratios 4.7 and 2.6 (p < 0.01) respectively. Odds ratios ranged by age group and test reason. CONCLUSION: A history of Ct infection increased the likelihood of infection with Ct in women and men taking into account the result of the previous test. Health education, safer sex and treatment of partners are necessary for women and men who have tested positive to prevent reinfection and complications and to interrupt the chain of transmission. To identify potential reinfection repeat testing after treatment should be performed.
Assuntos
Infecções por Chlamydia/epidemiologia , Chlamydia trachomatis/isolamento & purificação , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Infecções por Chlamydia/diagnóstico , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Seleção de Pacientes , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/epidemiologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/prevenção & controle , Recidiva , Fatores de Risco , Prevenção Secundária/métodos , Prevenção Secundária/normas , Prevenção Secundária/estatística & dados numéricos , Vigilância de Evento Sentinela , Parceiros Sexuais , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/complicações , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Adulto JovemAssuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Animais , Chlorocebus aethiops , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Células VeroRESUMO
In Germany, routine childhood varicella vaccination was implemented in 2004 with two doses recommended since 2009. We used an immunisation information system based on countrywide health insurance claims data to analyse vaccine effectiveness (VE) and factors influencing VE. We applied proportional hazard models to estimate VE under various conditions and compared the risk of acquiring varicella among unvaccinated children in regions with high vs low vaccination coverage (VC). Among 1.4 million children we identified 29,404 varicella cases over a maximum follow-up of 8 years post-vaccination. One-dose VE was 81.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.4-82.5), two-dose VE 94.4% (95% CI: 94.2-94.6). With dose one given 1-27 days after measles-containing vaccine (MCV), one-dose VE was 32.2% (95% CI: 10.4-48.6), two-dose VE 92.8% (95% CI: 84.8-96.6). VE was not associated with age at vaccination (11-14 vs ≥ 15 months), time since vaccination, or vaccine type. Unvaccinated children had a twofold higher risk of acquiring varicella in low VC regions. Our system generated valuable data, showing that two-dose varicella vaccination provides good protection for at least 8 years. Unvaccinated children benefit from herd effects. When the first varicella vaccine dose is given shortly after MCV, a second dose is essential.
Assuntos
Vacina contra Varicela/administração & dosagem , Varicela/epidemiologia , Varicela/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Reembolso de Seguro de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Potência de Vacina , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Imunização , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Sistemas de Informação , Seguro Saúde , Masculino , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Modelos de Riscos ProporcionaisRESUMO
Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) can impair sexual health. Surveillance and study data were used to provide an overview over STIs in Germany. We estimated 3900 new HIV diagnoses in 2015. Of newly diagnosed infections, 57% were attributed to men who have sex with men (MSM). It was further estimated that there were 3200 new HIV infections and 84,700 people living with HIV in 2015. A total of 6834 syphilis infections were recorded in 2015, which corresponds to an increase of 149% since 2009. The incidence in men was 16-times higher than in women. Of syphilis infections, 85% could be attributed to MSM. Antimicrobial resistance of gonococci against the broad-spectrum antibiotic cefixime decreased between 2014 and 2016 after a change of therapy guidelines and remained stable on a low level regarding the antibiotic ceftriaxone. After an increase of resistance against the antibiotic azithromycin to 11.3% in 2015, we observed a decreasing trend in 2016. Between 2013 and 2015, 2,355,336 chlamydia tests were reported through the chlamydia sentinel network. Of these, 92.5% of samples were from women. Uptake for screening for women <25 years was 11.3% in 2015, with 5.0% positive chlamydia tests. In a cross-sectional study among women aged 20-25 years, a prevalence of human papilloma virus (HPV) of 38.1% was observed. A total of 30.5% of 15-year-old women were vaccinated against HPV in 2014. Data suggest that STIs represent a high burden of disease. Knowledge of STI prevention should be improved by targeted education campaigns. Extending existing offers for counselling and testing through cooperation between different health sectors would improve early diagnosis and treatment of STIs.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Estudos Transversais , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos , Feminino , Alemanha , Gonorreia/tratamento farmacológico , Gonorreia/epidemiologia , Gonorreia/transmissão , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/transmissão , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/transmissão , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/uso terapêutico , Vigilância da População , Fatores Sexuais , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/transmissão , Sífilis/tratamento farmacológico , Sífilis/epidemiologia , Sífilis/transmissão , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although early presentation to HIV-care is essential to ensure timely initiation of antiretroviral therapy, recent studies have shown that especially migrants present to HIV-care at a later stage of HIV-infection. Currently, thirty percent of all newly diagnosed HIV cases in Germany originate from abroad. So far it is unknown, which specific migrant groups in Germany are particularly at risk for late presentation to HIV-care. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Surveillance of HIV Disease (ClinSurv) cohort, a multi-centre observational cohort (01/01/1999 and 31/07/2013) and included treatment-naïve patients with valid information on country of origin and date of enrolment. Migrants were patients with country of origin outside Germany. We compared time trends for percentage of AIDS (CDC Stage C) and mean CD4-count at enrolment between migrants from Western Europe (WE), Central Europe (CE), Eastern Europe (EE), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), South East Asia (SEA) and non-migrants using multivariable regressions. Male non-migrants with mean age of 38-years constituted the reference group. RESULTS: In total, 10,211 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria, of which 2784 were migrants (SSA: 42%, CE: 17%, WE: 11%, EE: 10%, SEA: 9%). The percentage of patients with AIDS at enrolment was higher in SSA (Odds Ratio (OR)SSA: 1.44, 95%-confidence interval (95%-CI):1.12-1.84) and SEA-migrants (ORSEA:2.16, 95%-CI:1.43-3.27). In addition, female SEA-migrants, were more likely to present with AIDS than their male counterparts (OR:2.22, 95%-CI:1.18-4.17). Mean CD4-count at enrolment was lower for SSA- (Mean CD4-count ratio (IRR):0.72; 95%-CI:0.64-0.82) and SEA-migrants (IRR:0.62, 95%-CI:0.49-0.78). Over time, it increased in non-migrants and CE-migrants (by 1 and 3%/year, respectively), whereas no increase was seen for SEA and SSA. CONCLUSIONS: SSA and SEA-migrants in Germany present to HIV-care at a later stage of HIV infection than non-migrants. Additionally, previous research found a higher risk for late HIV-testing for migrants. Collecting information about the arrival date of migrants in Germany in the HIV notification system would help to understand to which extent these problems could be tackled in Germany. Moreover, participatory approaches for HIV-testing and care as well as research regarding knowledge, behaviour and attitudes towards these topics for SSA and SEA migrants should be expanded.
Assuntos
Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/tratamento farmacológico , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Adulto , África Subsaariana/etnologia , Estudos de Coortes , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/etnologia , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Alemanha/etnologia , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Migrantes/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (MisSA) are a relevant sub-group for HIV-transmission in Germany. A total of 10-15 % of all newly diagnosed cases are MisSA, and approximately one third acquired HIV in Germany. There is limited information on knowledge, attitudes, behaviors and practices (KABP) regarding sexual health in African communities residing in Germany. METHODS: From October-December 2013 we conducted a cross-sectional survey on KABP regarding HIV, viral hepatitis (HEP), and sexually transmitted infections (STI) among MisSA in Hamburg as a community-based participatory research project to identify knowledge gaps, sexual risk behavior regarding HIV/HEP/STI, HIV/STI-testing history and attitudes toward people living with HIV (PLWH). Trained peer researchers recruited participants through outreach. Questionnaires in German, English or French were either administered face-to-face or self-completed. Questions on knowledge about HIV/HEP/STI presented true statements; participants were asked if they knew the information before. To detect differences in sub-groups, unadjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated, and a multivariate analysis for knowledge on HIV/HEP/STI was performed. RESULTS: The final sample included 569 participants of whom 57 % were men. Most participants originated from Western and Central sub-Saharan Africa. Median time living in Germany was 6 years. Overall, 28 % had a university degree and 54 % reported a good level of German language. Over 80 % knew the risks for HIV transmission. A total of 44 % of respondents wrongly assumed that an HIV-diagnosis might lead to deportation and 64 % were not aware of the free and anonymous local HIV/STI-testing service. The proportion of participants with knowledge of presented facts on HEP varied from 40-58 %. The respective proportion on STI was 28-68 % and better among women compared to men (44 % vs. 54 %; OR = 1.45; 95 % CI 1.22-1.74). Men reported more often casual sex partners than women (43 % vs. 23 %; OR = 2.6; 95 % CI 1.7-4.0), and more frequently a previous STI (58 % vs. 39 %; OR = 2.1; 95 % CI 1.1-4.1). Overall, 16 % of women reported a history of sexual violence. The majority of respondents (75 %) reported that they would treat PLWH like any other person. CONCLUSION: Study participants demonstrated good knowledge on HIV-transmission but knowledge gaps regarding HIV/STI-testing services, HEP and STI. This calls for targeted interventions providing more information about these topics in African communities in Hamburg and possibly also elsewhere.