Improving Health Risk Assessment as a Basis for Public Health Decisions in the 21st Century.

One-fifth of the way through the 21st century, a commonality of factors with those of the last 50 years may offer the opportunity to address unfinished business and current challenges. The recommendations include: (1) Resisting the tendency to oversimplify scientific assessments by reliance on single disciplines in lieu of clear weight-of-evidence expressions, and on single quantitative point estimates of health protective values for policy decisions; (2) Improving the separation of science and judgment in risk assessment through the use of clear expressions of the range of judgments that bracket protective quantitative levels for public health protection; (3) Use of comparative risk to achieve the greatest gains in health and the environment; and (4) Where applicable, reversal of the risk assessment and risk management steps to facilitate timely and substantive improvements in public health and the environment. Lessons learned and improvements in the risk assessment process are applied to the unprecedented challenges of the 21st century such as, pandemics and climate change. The beneficial application of the risk assessment and risk management paradigm to ensure timely research with consistency and transparency of assessments is presented. Institutions with mandated stability and leadership roles at the national and international levels are essential to ensure timely interdisciplinary scientific assessment at the interface with public policy as a basis for organized policy decisions, to meet time sensitive goals, and to inform the public.

Consideration of the Aerosol Transmission for COVID-19 and Public Health.

This article analyzes the available evidence to address airborne, aerosol transmission of the SARS-CoV-2. We review and present three lines of evidence: case reports of transmission for asymptomatic individuals in association with studies that show that normal breathing and talking produce predominantly small droplets of the size that are subject to aerosol transport; limited empirical data that have recorded aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 particles that remain suspended in the air for hours and are subject to transport over distances including outside of rooms and intrabuilding, and the broader literature that further supports the importance of aerosol transmission of infectious diseases. The weight of the available evidence warrants immediate attention to address the significance of aerosols and implications for public health protection.

Assessment of Health Risk from Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder.

This study's objective is to assess the risk of asbestos-related disease being contracted by past users of cosmetic talcum powder.  To our knowledge, no risk assessment studies using exposure data from historical exposures or chamber simulations have been published. We conducted activity-based sampling with cosmetic talcum powder samples from five opened and previously used containers that are believed to have been first manufactured and sold in the 1960s and 1970s.  These samples had been subject to conflicting claims of asbestos content; samples with the highest claimed asbestos content were tested.  The tests were conducted in simulated-bathroom controlled chambers with volunteers who were talc users.  Air sampling filters were prepared by direct preparation techniques and analyzed by phase contrast microscopy (PCM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray (EDX) spectra, and selective area diffraction (SAED).  TEM analysis for asbestos resulted in no confirmed asbestos fibers and only a single fiber classified as "ambiguous."  Hypothetical treatment of this fiber as if it were asbestos yields a risk of 9.6 × 10-7 (under one in one million) for a lifetime user of this cosmetic talcum powder.  The exposure levels associated with these results range from zero to levels far below those identified in the epidemiology literature as posing a risk for asbestos-related disease, and substantially below published historical environmental background levels.  The approaches used for this study have potential application to exposure evaluations of other talc or asbestos-containing materials and consumer products.

A review and critique of U.S. EPA's risk assessments for asbestos.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently conducted a risk assessment for exposure to Libby amphibole asbestos that is precedent-setting for two reasons. First, the Agency has not previously conducted a risk assessment for a specific type of asbestos fiber. Second, the risk assessment includes not only an inhalation unit risk (IUR) for the cancer endpoints, but also a reference concentration (RfC) for nonmalignant disease. In this paper, we review the procedures used by the Agency for both cancer and nonmalignant disease and discuss the strengths and limitations of these procedures. The estimate of the RfC uses the benchmark dose method applied to pleural plaques in a small subcohort of vermiculite workers in Marysville, Ohio. We show that these data are too sparse to inform the exposure-response relationship in the low-exposure region critical for estimation of an RfC, and that different models with very different exposure-response shapes fit the data equally well. Furthermore, pleural plaques do not represent a disease condition and do not appear to meet the EPA's definition of an adverse condition. The estimation of the IUR for cancer is based on a subcohort of Libby miners, discarding the vast majority of lung cancers and mesotheliomas in the entire cohort and ignoring important time-related factors in exposure and risk, including effect modification by age. We propose that an IUR based on an endpoint that combines lung cancer, mesothelioma, and nonmalignant respiratory disease (NMRD) in this cohort would protect against both malignant and nonmalignant disease. However, the IUR should be based on the entire cohort of Libby miners, and the analysis should properly account for temporal factors. We illustrate our discussion with our own independent analyses of the data used by the Agency.

Decreased lung function after preschool wheezing rhinovirus illnesses in children at risk to develop asthma.

BACKGROUND: Preschool rhinovirus (RV) wheezing illnesses predict an increased risk of childhood asthma; however, it is not clear how specific viral illnesses in early life relate to lung function later on in childhood. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship of virus-specific wheezing illnesses and lung function in a longitudinal cohort of children at risk for asthma. METHODS: Two hundred thirty-eight children were followed prospectively from birth to 8 years of age. Early life viral wheezing respiratory illnesses were assessed by using standard techniques, and lung function was assessed annually by using spirometry and impulse oscillometry. The relationships of these virus-specific wheezing illnesses and lung function were assessed by using mixed-effect linear regression. RESULTS: Children with RV wheezing illness demonstrated significantly decreased spirometry values, FEV(1) (P = .001), FEV(0.5) (P < .001), FEF(25-75) (P < .001), and also had abnormal impulse oscillometry measures--more negative reactance at 5 Hz (P < .001)--compared with those who did not wheeze with RV. Children who wheezed with respiratory syncytial virus or other viral illnesses did not have any significant differences in spirometric or impulse oscillometry indices when compared with children who did not. Children diagnosed with asthma at ages 6 or 8 years had significantly decreased FEF(25-75) (P = .05) compared with children without asthma. CONCLUSION: Among outpatient viral wheezing illnesses in early childhood, those caused by RV infections are the most significant predictors of decreased lung function up to age 8 years in a high-risk birth cohort. Whether low lung function is a cause and/or effect of RV wheezing illnesses is yet to be determined.

Early childhood weight status in relation to asthma development in high-risk children.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been proposed to be a risk factor for the development of childhood asthma. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine weight status from birth to age 5 years in relation to the occurrence of asthma at ages 6 and 8 years. METHODS: Two hundred eighty-five full-term high-risk newborns with at least 1 asthmatic/atopic parent enrolled in the Childhood Origin of Asthma project were studied from birth to age 8 years. Overweight was defined by weight-for-length percentiles of greater than the 85th percentile before the age of 2 years and a body mass index percentile of greater than the 85th percentile at ages 2 to 5 years. RESULTS: No significant concurrent association was found between overweight status and wheezing/asthma occurrence at each year of age. In contrast, longitudinal analyses revealed complex relationships between being overweight and asthma. Being overweight at age 1 year was associated with a decreased risk of asthma at age 6 (odds ratio [OR], 0.32; P = .02) and 8 (OR, 0.35; P = .04) years, as well as better lung function. However, being overweight beyond infancy was not associated with asthma occurrence. In fact, only children who were overweight at age 5 years but not at age 1 year had an increased risk of asthma at age 6 years (OR, 5.78; P = .05). CONCLUSION: In children genetically at high risk of asthma, being overweight at age 1 year was associated with a decreased risk of asthma and better lung function at ages 6 and 8 years. However, being overweight beyond infancy did not have any protective effect and even could confer a higher risk for asthma.

Fractional exhaled nitric oxide measurements are most closely associated with allergic sensitization in school-age children.

BACKGROUND: Factors affecting fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) in early childhood are incompletely understood. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationships between FeNO and allergic sensitization, total IgE, atopic dermatitis, rhinitis, asthma, and lung function (spirometry) in children. METHODS: Children at high risk of asthma and other allergic diseases because of parental history were enrolled at birth and followed prospectively. FeNO was measured by an online technique at ages 6 and 8 years. Relationships among FeNO, various atopic characteristics, and asthma were evaluated. RESULTS: Reproducible FeNO measurements were obtained in 64% (135/210) of 6-year-old and 93% (180/194) of 8-year-old children. There was seasonal variability in FeNO. Children with aeroallergen sensitization at ages 6 and 8 years had increased levels of FeNO compared with those not sensitized (geometric mean; 6 years, 10.9 vs 6.7 parts per billion [ppb], P < .0001; 8 years, 14.6 vs 7.1 ppb, P < .0001). FeNO was higher in children with asthma than in those without asthma at 8 years but not 6 years of age (6 years, 9.2 vs 8.3 ppb, P = .48; 8 years, 11.5 vs 9.2 ppb, P = .03). At 8 years of age, this difference was no longer significant in a multivariate model that included aeroallergen sensitization (P = .33). There were no correlations between FeNO and spirometric indices at 6 or 8 years of age. CONCLUSION: These findings underscore the importance of evaluating allergen sensitization status when FeNO is used as a potential biomarker in the diagnosis and/or monitoring of atopic diseases, particularly asthma.

Wheezing rhinovirus illnesses in early life predict asthma development in high-risk children.

RATIONALE: Virus-induced wheezing episodes in infancy often precede the development of asthma. Whether infections with specific viral pathogens confer differential future asthma risk is incompletely understood. OBJECTIVES: To define the relationship between specific viral illnesses and early childhood asthma development. METHODS: A total of 259 children were followed prospectively from birth to 6 years of age. The etiology and timing of specific viral wheezing respiratory illnesses during early childhood were assessed using nasal lavage, culture, and multiplex reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. The relationships of these virus-specific wheezing illnesses and other risk factors to the development of asthma were analyzed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Viral etiologies were identified in 90% of wheezing illnesses. From birth to age 3 years, wheezing with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (odds ratio [OR], 2.6), rhinovirus (RV) (OR, 9.8), or both RV and RSV (OR , 10) was associated with increased asthma risk at age 6 years. In Year 1, both RV wheezing (OR, 2.8) and aeroallergen sensitization (OR, 3.6) independently increased asthma risk at age 6 years. By age 3 years, wheezing with RV (OR, 25.6) was more strongly associated with asthma at age 6 years than aeroallergen sensitization (OR, 3.4). Nearly 90% (26 of 30) of children who wheezed with RV in Year 3 had asthma at 6 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Among outpatient viral wheezing illnesses in infancy and early childhood, those caused by RV infections are the most significant predictors of the subsequent development of asthma at age 6 years in a high-risk birth cohort.

Evidence of health impacts of sulfate-and nitrate-containing particles in ambient air.

Ambient particulate matter (PM) is a complex mixture of inorganic and organic compounds. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates PM as a criteria pollutant and promulgates National Ambient Air Quality Standards for it. The PM indicator is based on mass concentration, unspecified as to chemical composition, for specific size fractions. The numerical standards are based on epidemiologic evidence of associations between the various size-related particle mass concentrations as indicators and excess mortality and cardiorespiratory health effects as endpoints. The U.S. National Research Council has stated that more research is needed to differentiate the apparent health effects associated with different particle chemical constituents. Sulfate and nitrate constitute a significant portion of the particle mass in the atmosphere, but are accompanied by similar amounts of carbonaceous material, along with low concentrations of various species, including bioactive organic compounds and redox cycling metals. Extensive animal and human toxicology data show no significant effects for particles consisting only of sulfate and nitrate compounds at levels in excess of ambient air concentrations. A few epidemiologic studies, including both short-term time-series studies and long-term cohort studies, have included the sulfate content of PM as a specific variable in health effect analyses. There are much less data for nitrate. The results from the epidemiologic studies with PM sulfate are inconsistent. A detailed analysis of the time-series epidemiological studies shows that PM sulfate has a weaker "risk factor" than PM2.5 for health effects. Since sulfate is correlated with PM2.5, this result is inconsistent with sulfate having a strong health influence. However, there are many limitations with these types of studies that warrant caution for any comparison between a chemical component and mass concentration. In total, the epidemiologic and toxicologic evidence provide little or no support for a causal association of PM sulfate and health risk at ambient concentrations. For nitrate-containing PM, virtually no epidemiological data exist. Limited toxicological evidence does not support a causal association between particulate nitrate compounds and excess health risks. There are some possible indirect processes through which sulfate and nitrate in PM may affect health-related endpoints, including interactions with certain metal species and a linkage with production of secondary organic matter. There is insufficient evidence to include or exclude these processes as being potentially important to PM-associated health risk.

Viral infections, cytokine dysregulation and the origins of childhood asthma and allergic diseases.

BACKGROUND: The origins of asthma and allergic disease begin in early life for many individuals. It is vital to understand the factors and/or events leading to their development. METHODS: The Childhood Origins of Asthma project evaluated children at high risk for asthma to study the relationships among viral infections, environmental factors, immune dysregulation, genetic factors, and the development of atopic diseases. Consequently wheezing illnesses, viral respiratory pathogen identification, and in vitro cytokine response profiles were comprehensively evaluated from birth to 3 years of age, and associations of the observed phenotypes with genetic polymorphisms were investigated. RESULTS: For the entire cohort, cytokine responses did not develop according to a strict T helper cell 1 or T helper cell 2 polarization pattern during infancy. Increased cord blood mononuclear cell phytohemagglutin-induced interferon-gamma responses of mononuclear cells were associated with decreased numbers of moderate to severe viral infections during infancy, especially among subjects with the greatest exposure to other children. In support of the hygiene hypothesis, an increased frequency of viral infections in infancy resulted in increased mitogen-induced interferon-gamma responses at 1 year of age. First year wheezing illnesses caused by respiratory viral infection were the strongest predictor of subsequent third year wheezing. Also, genotypic variation interacting with environmental factors, including day care, was associated with clinical and immunologic phenotypes that may precede the development of asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between clinical wheezing, viral identification, specific cytokine responses and genetic variation provide insight into the immunopathogenesis of childhood asthma and allergic diseases.

A phase I study of bevacizumab, everolimus and panitumumab in advanced solid tumors.

PURPOSE: Preclinical data suggest concurrent inhibition of VEGF, mTOR and EGFR pathways may augment antitumor and antiangiogenic effects compared to inhibition of each pathway alone. This study evaluated the maximum tolerated dose/recommended phase II dose and safety and tolerability of bevacizumab, everolimus and panitumumab drug combination. METHODS: Subjects with advanced solid tumors received escalating doses of everolimus and flat dosing of panitumumab at 4.8 mg/kg and bevacizumab at 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. Dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) were assessed in cycle 1; toxicity evaluation was closely monitored throughout treatment. Treatment continued until disease progression or undesirable toxicity. RESULTS: Thirty-two subjects were evaluable for toxicity; 31 subjects were evaluable for tumor response. DLTs were observed in cohorts with everolimus at 10 and 5 mg daily and included grade 3 mucositis, skin rash and thrombocytopenia. Therefore, everolimus was dose-reduced to 5 mg three times weekly, which improved the tolerability of the treatment regimen. Common adverse events were skin rash/pruritus (91 %), mucositis/stomatitis (75 %), hypomagnesemia (72 %), hypocalcemia (56 %) and hypokalemia (50 %). There were 3 partial responses; an additional 10 subjects had stable disease ≥6 months. Three subjects with ovarian cancer and one with endometrial cancer achieved prolonged disease control ranging from 11 to >40 months. CONCLUSIONS: The recommended phase II dose is everolimus at 5 mg three times weekly plus panitumumab at 4.8 mg/kg and bevacizumab at 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. This dosing regimen has an acceptable safety and tolerability profile and appears to have moderate the clinical activity in refractory tumors.

Rhinovirus illnesses during infancy predict subsequent childhood wheezing.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of viral respiratory infections during infancy to the development of subsequent wheezing and/or allergic diseases in early childhood is not established. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate these relationships prospectively from birth to 3 years of age in 285 children genetically at high risk for developing allergic respiratory diseases. METHODS: By using nasal lavage, the relationship of timing, severity, and etiology of viral respiratory infections during infancy to wheezing in the 3rd year of life was evaluated. In addition, genetic and environmental factors that could modify risk of infections and wheezing prevalence were analyzed. RESULTS: Risk factors for 3rd year wheezing were passive smoke exposure (odds ratio [OR]=2.1), older siblings (OR=2.5), allergic sensitization to foods at age 1 year (OR=2.0), any moderate to severe respiratory illness without wheezing during infancy (OR=3.6), and at least 1 wheezing illness with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV; OR=3.0), rhinovirus (OR=10) and/or non-rhinovirus/RSV pathogens (OR=3.9) during infancy. When viral etiology was considered, 1st-year wheezing illnesses caused by rhinovirus infection were the strongest predictor of subsequent 3rd year wheezing (OR=6.6; P < .0001). Moreover, 63% of infants who wheezed during rhinovirus seasons continued to wheeze in the 3rd year of life, compared with only 20% of all other infants (OR=6.6; P < .0001). CONCLUSION: In this population of children at increased risk of developing allergies and asthma, the most significant risk factor for the development of preschool childhood wheezing is the occurrence of symptomatic rhinovirus illnesses during infancy that are clinically and prognostically informative based on their seasonal nature.

The contrast between risk assessment and rules of evidence in the context of international trade disputes: can the US experience inform the process?

Risk assessment provides a formalized process to evaluate human, animal, and ecological responses associated with exposure to environmental agents. The purpose of risk assessment is to answer two related questions: - How likely is an (adverse) event to occur? - If it does, how severe will the impact be? In the United States, the science of risk assessment has evolved out of the necessity to make public health decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty. Its basic propositions have been established over the past three decades and its applications have impacted virtually every aspect of public health and environmental protection in many countries, including the United States. More recently, the World Trade Organization's (WTO) dispute-settlement process has provided additional incentive for the reliance on risk assessments internationally through the requirement that member countries be able to provide scientific justification, based on a risk assessment, for public health and environmental regulatory measures that are challenged. The purpose of this article is to review the history of risk assessment in the United States, emphasizing the development of both its scientific and policy aspects, as one example of the development of institutional capacity for risk assessment. This article discusses the importance of the social, political, and economic contexts of risk assessment and risk management in shaping the approaches taken while highlighting the reality that the analytic or risk assessment part of the decision-making process, in the absence of scientific data, can be completed only by inserting inferences, or policy judgments, which may differ among countries. This article recognizes these differences, and the consequent difference between risk assessment that incorporates public health protective assumptions and the rules of evidence that seek to answer questions of causality, and discusses implications for the WTO dispute-settlement process. It further explores the value of country-specific risk assessment guidelines to facilitate consistency within a country along with the appropriateness and feasibility of international risk assessment guidelines.

A framework and case study for exposure assessment in the Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program.

A conceptual framework is presented for conducting exposure assessments under the U.S. EPA's Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP). The VCCEP is a voluntary program whereby companies that manufacture chemicals of potential concern are asked to conduct hazard, exposure, and risk assessments for the chemicals. The VCCEP is unique in its risk-based, tiered approach, and because it focuses on children and requires a comprehensive consideration of all reasonably foreseeable exposure pathways for a particular chemical. The consideration of all potential exposure pathways for some commonly used chemicals presents a daunting challenge for the exposure assessor. This article presents a framework for managing this complicated process, and illustrates the application of the framework with a hypothetical case study. The framework provides guidance for interpreting multiple sources of exposure information and developing a plausible list of exposure pathways for a chemical. Furthermore, the framework provides a means to process all the available information to eliminate pathways of negligible concern from consideration. Finally, the framework provides guidance for utilizing the tiered approach of VCCEP to efficiently conduct an assessment by first using simple, screening-level approaches and then, if necessary, using more complex, refined exposure assessment methods. The case study provides an illustration of the major concepts.

Worker exposure standard for phosphine gas.

The 1998 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) re-registration eligibility decision (RED) for phosphine fumigants has generated much interest in defining safe levels of exposure for workers and worker bystanders. This report summarizes the pertinent literature on phosphine toxicity, including animal inhalation studies and human epidemiology studies, and also describes a margin-of-exposure (MOE) analysis based on available worker exposure data. In addition, a safe occupational exposure limit is estimated using typical OPP assumptions, after determination of appropriate uncertainty factors, based on quality of data in the principal study and pharmacokinetic considerations. While a conservative 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) of 0.1 ppm was calculated, the overall weight of evidence, from a risk-management perspective, supports a conclusion that an occupational TWA of 0.3 ppm provides adequate health protection. In addition, a 15-minute short-term exposure limit (STEL) of 3 ppm was estimated. Finally, in contrast to the MOE analysis described in the OPP's phosphine RED, the MOE analysis described herein does not indicate that fumigation workers are currently being exposed to unacceptable levels of phosphine. Collectively, these findings support the occupational exposure limits of 0.3 ppm (8-hour TWA) and 1 ppm (STEL) established in the updated applicator's manuals for phosphine-generating products, which recently received approval from OPP.

Cytokine response patterns, exposure to viruses, and respiratory infections in the first year of life.

Daycare attendance and siblings are associated with viral-induced wheezing in children. Preexisting immunologic factors may influence the expression of viral infections in infancy, and in turn, recurrent infections may influence the development of immune responses. A total of 285 children were enrolled in the Childhood Origins of Asthma Project at birth and followed for at least 1 year. Cord blood and 1-year mononuclear cells were stimulated with phytohemagglutinin, and cytokine-response profiles were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Nasal lavage was performed for moderate to severe respiratory illnesses. Daycare attendance and/or siblings significantly increased the likelihood of contracting respiratory syncytial virus (1.5-1.6-fold increase) and rhinovirus (1.8-2.1-fold increase), and increased the risk of rhinovirus-induced wheezing (14-18% vs. 2%, p = 0.011). Cord blood IFN-gamma responses were inversely related to the frequency of viral respiratory infections (r(s) = -0.11, p = 0.05), and more significant for subjects with high exposure to other children (r(s) = -0.27, p = 0.028). The interval change in infantile IFN-gamma responses correlated positively with the frequency of viral infections in infancy (r(s) = 0.12, p = 0.047). These data suggest that neonatal IFN-gamma responses may influence antiviral activity, or may represent a marker of antiviral immunity maturation. Conversely, the frequency of viral infections in infancy can influence IFN-gamma responses.