Antagonistic selection from predators and pathogens alters food-web structure.

Selection can alter predator-prey interactions. However, whether and how complex food-webs respond to selection remain largely unknown. We show in the field that antagonistic selection from predators and pathogens on prey body-size can be a primary driver of food-web functioning. In Windermere, U.K., pike (Esox lucius, the predator) selected against small perch (Perca fluviatilis, the prey), while a perch-specific pathogen selected against large perch. The strongest selective force drove perch trait change and ultimately determined the structure of trophic interactions. Before 1976, the strength of pike-induced selection overrode the strength of pathogen-induced selection and drove a change to larger, faster growing perch. Predation-driven increase in the proportion of large, infection-vulnerable perch presumably favored the pathogen since a peak in the predation pressure in 1976 coincided with pathogen expansion and a massive perch kill. After 1976, the strength of pathogen-induced selection overrode the strength of predator-induced selection and drove a rapid change to smaller, slower growing perch. These changes made perch easier prey for pike and weaker competitors against juvenile pike, ultimately increasing juvenile pike survival and total pike numbers. Therefore, although predators and pathogens exploited the same prey in Windermere, they did not operate competitively but synergistically by driving rapid prey trait change in opposite directions. Our study empirically demonstrates that a consideration of the relative strengths and directions of multiple selective pressures is needed to fully understand community functioning in nature.

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium.

BACKGROUND: Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. RESULTS: We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. CONCLUSIONS: Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108.

Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.