Organoid cultures derived from patients with advanced prostate cancer.

The lack of in vitro prostate cancer models that recapitulate the diversity of human prostate cancer has hampered progress in understanding disease pathogenesis and therapy response. Using a 3D organoid system, we report success in long-term culture of prostate cancer from biopsy specimens and circulating tumor cells. The first seven fully characterized organoid lines recapitulate the molecular diversity of prostate cancer subtypes, including TMPRSS2-ERG fusion, SPOP mutation, SPINK1 overexpression, and CHD1 loss. Whole-exome sequencing shows a low mutational burden, consistent with genomics studies, but with mutations in FOXA1 and PIK3R1, as well as in DNA repair and chromatin modifier pathways that have been reported in advanced disease. Loss of p53 and RB tumor suppressor pathway function are the most common feature shared across the organoid lines. The methodology described here should enable the generation of a large repertoire of patient-derived prostate cancer lines amenable to genetic and pharmacologic studies.

Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks.

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

Glucocorticoid receptor confers resistance to antiandrogens by bypassing androgen receptor blockade.

The treatment of advanced prostate cancer has been transformed by novel antiandrogen therapies such as enzalutamide. Here, we identify induction of glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression as a common feature of drug-resistant tumors in a credentialed preclinical model, a finding also confirmed in patient samples. GR substituted for the androgen receptor (AR) to activate a similar but distinguishable set of target genes and was necessary for maintenance of the resistant phenotype. The GR agonist dexamethasone was sufficient to confer enzalutamide resistance, whereas a GR antagonist restored sensitivity. Acute AR inhibition resulted in GR upregulation in a subset of prostate cancer cells due to relief of AR-mediated feedback repression of GR expression. These findings establish a mechanism of escape from AR blockade through expansion of cells primed to drive AR target genes via an alternative nuclear receptor upon drug exposure.

Correction: Urine tumor DNA detection of minimal residual disease in muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with curative-intent radical cystectomy: A cohort study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003732.].

Urine tumor DNA detection of minimal residual disease in muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with curative-intent radical cystectomy: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The standard of care treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) is radical cystectomy, which is typically preceded by neoadjuvant chemotherapy. However, the inability to assess minimal residual disease (MRD) noninvasively limits our ability to offer bladder-sparing treatment. Here, we sought to develop a liquid biopsy solution via urine tumor DNA (utDNA) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We applied urine Cancer Personalized Profiling by Deep Sequencing (uCAPP-Seq), a targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) method for detecting utDNA, to urine cell-free DNA (cfDNA) samples acquired between April 2019 and November 2020 on the day of curative-intent radical cystectomy from 42 patients with localized bladder cancer. The average age of patients was 69 years (range: 50 to 86), of whom 76% (32/42) were male, 64% (27/42) were smokers, and 76% (32/42) had a confirmed diagnosis of MIBC. Among MIBC patients, 59% (19/32) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. utDNA variant calling was performed noninvasively without prior sequencing of tumor tissue. The overall utDNA level for each patient was represented by the non-silent mutation with the highest variant allele fraction after removing germline variants. Urine was similarly analyzed from 15 healthy adults. utDNA analysis revealed a median utDNA level of 0% in healthy adults and 2.4% in bladder cancer patients. When patients were classified as those who had residual disease detected in their surgical sample (n = 16) compared to those who achieved a pathologic complete response (pCR; n = 26), median utDNA levels were 4.3% vs. 0%, respectively (p = 0.002). Using an optimal utDNA threshold to define MRD detection, positive utDNA MRD detection was highly correlated with the absence of pCR (p < 0.001) with a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 81%. Leave-one-out cross-validation applied to the prediction of pathologic response based on utDNA MRD detection in our cohort yielded a highly significant accuracy of 81% (p = 0.007). Moreover, utDNA MRD-positive patients exhibited significantly worse progression-free survival (PFS; HR = 7.4; 95% CI: 1.4-38.9; p = 0.02) compared to utDNA MRD-negative patients. Concordance between urine- and tumor-derived mutations, determined in 5 MIBC patients, was 85%. Tumor mutational burden (TMB) in utDNA MRD-positive patients was inferred from the number of non-silent mutations detected in urine cfDNA by applying a linear relationship derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) whole exome sequencing of 409 MIBC tumors. We suggest that about 58% of these patients with high inferred TMB might have been candidates for treatment with early immune checkpoint blockade. Study limitations included an analysis restricted only to single-nucleotide variants (SNVs), survival differences diminished by surgery, and a low number of DNA damage response (DRR) mutations detected after neoadjuvant chemotherapy at the MRD time point. CONCLUSIONS: utDNA MRD detection prior to curative-intent radical cystectomy for bladder cancer correlated significantly with pathologic response, which may help select patients for bladder-sparing treatment. utDNA MRD detection also correlated significantly with PFS. Furthermore, utDNA can be used to noninvasively infer TMB, which could facilitate personalized immunotherapy for bladder cancer in the future.

Comparison of forest above-ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation-based estimates.

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above-ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The global total forest AGB of the nine DGVMs is 365 ± 66 Pg C, the spread corresponding to the standard deviation between models, compared to 275 Pg C with an uncertainty of ~13.5% from GlobBiomass. Model-data discrepancy in total forest AGB can be attributed to their discrepancies in the AGB density and/or forest area. While DGVMs represent the global spatial gradients of AGB density reasonably well, they only have modest ability to reproduce the regional spatial gradients of AGB density at scales below 1000 km. The 95th percentile of AGB density (AGB95 ) in tropics can be considered as the potential maximum of AGB density which can be reached for a given annual precipitation. GlobBiomass data show local deficits of AGB density compared to the AGB95 , particularly in transitional and/or wet regions in tropics. We hypothesize that local human disturbances cause more AGB density deficits from GlobBiomass than from DGVMs, which rarely represent human disturbances. We then analyse empirical relationships between AGB density deficits and forest cover changes, population density, burned areas and livestock density. Regression analysis indicated that more than 40% of the spatial variance of AGB density deficits in South America and Africa can be explained; in Southeast Asia, these factors explain only ~25%. This result suggests TRENDY v6 DGVMs tend to underestimate biomass loss from diverse and widespread anthropogenic disturbances, and as a result overestimate turnover time in AGB.

Causes of slowing-down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa.

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Plant Productivity Over Recent Decades Based on Three Global Products.

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation-based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS-LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long-term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP.

Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada.

Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned-over seven times the 1986-2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation's climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004-2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.

Endothelial cells are a key target of IFN-g during response to combined PD-1/CTLA-4 ICB treatment in a mouse model of bladder cancer.

To explore mechanisms of response to combined PD-1/CTLA-4 immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) treatment in individual cell types, we generated scRNA-seq using a mouse model of invasive urothelial carcinoma with three conditions: untreated tumor, treated tumor, and tumor treated after CD4+ T cell depletion. After classifying tumor cells based on detection of somatic variants and assigning non-tumor cell types using SingleR, we performed differential expression analysis, overrepresentation analysis, and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) within each cell type. GSEA revealed that endothelial cells were enriched for upregulated IFN-g response genes when comparing treated cells to both untreated cells and cells treated after CD4+ T cell depletion. Functional analysis showed that knocking out IFNgR1 in endothelial cells inhibited treatment response. Together, these results indicated that IFN-g signaling in endothelial cells is a key mediator of ICB induced anti-tumor activity.

Endothelial cells are a key target of IFN-g during response to combined PD-1/CTLA-4 ICB treatment in a mouse model of bladder cancer.

To explore mechanisms of response to combined PD-1/CTLA-4 immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) treatment in individual cell types, we generated scRNA-seq using a mouse model of invasive urothelial carcinoma with three conditions: untreated tumor, treated tumor, and tumor treated after CD4+ T cell depletion. After classifying tumor cells based on detection of somatic variants and assigning non-tumor cell types using SingleR, we performed differential expression analysis, overrepresentation analysis, and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) within each cell type. GSEA revealed that endothelial cells were enriched for upregulated IFN-g response genes when comparing treated cells to both untreated cells and cells treated after CD4+ T cell depletion. Functional analysis showed that knocking out IFNgR1 in endothelial cells inhibited treatment response. Together, these results indicated that IFN-g signaling in endothelial cells is a key mediator of ICB induced anti-tumor activity.

Soil respiration-driven CO2 pulses dominate Australia's flux variability.

The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink.

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

A Randomized Phase II Study of Androgen Deprivation Therapy with or without Palbociclib in RB-positive Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Palbociclib, a cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 inhibitor, blocks proliferation in a RB and cyclin D-dependent manner in preclinical prostate cancer models. We hypothesized that cotargeting androgen receptor and cell cycle with palbociclib would improve outcomes in patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 60 patients with RB-intact mHSPC were randomized (1:2) to Arm 1: androgen deprivation (AD) or Arm 2: AD + palbociclib. Primary endpoint was PSA response rate (RR) after 28 weeks of therapy. Secondary endpoints included safety, PSA, and clinical progression-free survival (PFS), as well as PSA and radiographic RR. Tumors underwent exome sequencing when available. Circulating tumor cells (CTC) were enumerated at various timepoints. RESULTS: A total of 72 patients with mHSPC underwent metastatic disease biopsy and 64 had adequate tissue for RB assessment. A total of 62 of 64 (97%) retained RB expression. A total of 60 patients initiated therapy (Arm 1: 20; Arm 2: 40). Neutropenia was the most common grade 3/4 adverse event in Arm 2. Eighty percent of patients (Arm 1: 16/20, Arm 2: 32/40; P = 0.87) met primary PSA endpoint ≤4 ng/mL at 28 weeks. PSA undetectable rate at 28 weeks was 50% and 43% in Arms 1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.5). Radiographic RR was 89% in both arms. Twelve-month biochemical PFS was 69% and 74% in Arms 1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.72). TP53 and PIK3 pathway mutations, 8q gains, and pretreatment CTCs were associated with reduced PSA PFS. CONCLUSIONS: Palbociclib did not impact outcome in RB-intact mHSPC. Pretreatment CTC, TP53 and PIK3 pathway mutations, and 8q gain were associated with poor outcome.

Management of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer During a Pandemic: Impact of Treatment Delay on Survival Outcomes for Patients Treated With Definitive Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, providers and patients must engage in shared decision making to ensure that the benefit of early intervention for muscle-invasive bladder cancer exceeds the risk of contracting COVID-19 in the clinical setting. It is unknown whether treatment delays for patients eligible for curative chemoradiation (CRT) compromise long-term outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used the National Cancer Data Base to investigate whether there is an association between a ≥ 90-day delay from transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) in initiating CRT and overall survival. We included patients with cT2-4N0M0 muscle-invasive bladder cancer from 2004 to 2015 who underwent TURBT and curative-intent concurrent CRT. Patients were grouped on the basis of timing of CRT: ≤ 89 days after TURBT (earlier) vs. ≥ 90 and < 180 days after TURBT (delayed). RESULTS: A total of 1387 (87.5%) received earlier CRT (median, 45 days after TURBT; interquartile range, 34-59 days), and 197 (12.5%) received delayed CRT (median, 111 days after TURBT; interquartile range, 98-130 days). Median overall survival was 29.0 months (95% CI, 26.0-32.0) versus 27.0 months (95% CI, 19.75-34.24) for earlier and delayed CRT (P = .94). On multivariable analysis, delayed CRT was not associated with an overall survival difference (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.27; P = .60). CONCLUSION: Although these results are limited and require validation, short, strategic treatment delays during a pandemic can be considered on the basis of clinician judgment.

Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase.

Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.

A propensity analysis comparing definitive chemo-radiotherapy for muscle-invasive squamous cell carcinoma of the bladder vs. urothelial carcinoma of the bladder using the National Cancer Database.

INTRODUCTION: Squamous cell carcinoma (SqCC) is the second most common histology of primary bladder cancer, but still very limited information is known about its treatment outcomes. Most bladder cancer trials have excluded SqCC, and the current treatment paradigm for localized SqCC is extrapolated from results in urothelial carcinoma (UC). In particular, there is limited data on the efficacy of definitive chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). In this study, we compare overall survival outcomes between SqCC and UC patients treated with definitive CRT. MATERIALS/METHODS: We queried the National Cancer Database (NCDB) for muscle-invasive (cT2-T4 N0 M0) bladder cancer patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2013 who underwent concurrent CRT. Propensity matching was performed to match patients with SqCC to those with UC. OS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival method, and the log-rank test and Cox regression were used for analyses. RESULTS: 3332 patients met inclusion criteria of which 79 (2.3%) had SqCC. 73.4% of SqCC patients had clinical T2 disease compared to 82.5% of UC patients. Unadjusted median OS for SqCC patients was 15.6 months (95% CI, 11.7-19.6) versus 29.1 months (95% CI, 27.5-30.7) for those with UC (P < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with worse OS included: SqCC histology [HR: 1.53 (95% CI, 1.19-1.97); P = 0.001], increasing age [HR: 1.02 (95% CI, 1.02-1.03); P < 0.0001], increasing clinical T-stage [HR: 1.21 (95% CI, 1.13-1.29); P < 0.0001], and Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index [HR: 1.26 (95% CI, 1.18-1.33); P < 0.0001]. Seventy-seven SqCC patients were included in the propensity-matched analysis (154 total patients) with a median OS for SqCC patients of 15.1 months (95% CI, 11.1-18.9) vs. 30.4 months (95% CI, 19.4-41.4) for patients with UC (P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest study to-date assessing survival outcomes for SqCC of the bladder treated with CRT. In this study, SqCC had worse overall survival compared to UC patients. Histology had a greater impact on survival than increasing T-stage, suggesting that histology should be an important factor when determining a patient's treatment strategy and that treatment intensification in this subgroup may be warranted.

Reduction in global area burned and wildfire emissions since 1930s enhances carbon uptake by land.

The terrestrial biosphere currently absorbs about 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This carbon uptake over land results primarily from vegetation's response to increasing atmospheric CO2 but other factors also play a role. Here we show that since the 1930s increasing population densities and cropland area have decreased global area burned, consistent with the charcoal record and recent satellite-based observations. The associated reduced wildfire emissions from increase in cropland area do not enhance carbon uptake since natural vegetation that is spared burning was deforested anyway. However, reduction in fire CO2 emissions due to fire suppression and landscape fragmentation associated with increases in population density is calculated to enhance land carbon uptake by 0.13 Pg C yr-1, or ~19% of the global land carbon uptake (0.7 ± 0.6 Pg C yr-1), for the 1960-2009 period. These results identify reduction in global wildfire CO2 emissions as yet another mechanism that is currently enhancing carbon uptake over land.

CD4+ T cells induce rejection of urothelial tumors after immune checkpoint blockade.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) provides clinical benefit to a minority of patients with urothelial carcinoma (UC). The role of CD4+ T cells in ICB-induced antitumor activity is not well defined; however, CD4+ T cells are speculated to play a supportive role in the development of CD8+ T cells that kill tumor cells after recognition of tumor antigens presented by MHC class I. To investigate the mechanisms of ICB-induced activity against UC, we developed mouse organoid-based transplantable models that have histologic and genetic similarity to human bladder cancer. We found that ICB can induce tumor rejection and protective immunity with these systems in a manner dependent on CD4+ T cells but not reliant on CD8+ T cells. Evaluation of tumor infiltrates and draining lymph nodes after ICB revealed expansion of IFN-γ-producing CD4+ T cells. Tumor cells in this system express MHC class I, MHC class II, and the IFN-γ receptor (Ifngr1), but none were necessary for ICB-induced tumor rejection. IFN-γ neutralization blocked ICB activity, and, in mice depleted of CD4+ T cells, IFN-γ ectopically expressed in the tumor microenvironment was sufficient to inhibit growth of tumors in which the epithelial compartment lacked Ifngr1. Our findings suggest unappreciated CD4+ T cell-dependent mechanisms of ICB activity, principally mediated through IFN-γ effects on the microenvironment.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches.

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4-0.7 PgC yr-1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr-1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.