Thermal conditions and age structure determine the spawning regularities and condition of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) in the NE of the Baltic Sea.

Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) is a total spawner with a group-synchronous ovarian organization. Age polymodality in total spawners is considered an important factor in assuring that a strong population is sustainable under an intensive harvesting regime and different climatic conditions. In the present study, we investigated the seasonal and inter-annual variation in spawner age structure and the effect of preceding winter thermal conditions on the start of the herring spawning and larvae retention period. Herring spawning season in the Gulf of Riga starts up to six weeks later after colder winters compared to milder winters. Significantly older individuals dominated at the beginning of the spawning season, and thus herring mean age gradually decreased towards the end of the spawning season from 1999-2015. On an annual scale, this pattern was obvious after cold winters, while after mild winters the pattern did not continue, indicating a more homogenous maturation cycle and spawning period, despite the age and size of the herring population in mild winters. Further, herring condition factor was studied in relation to age and spawning season following different winter thermal conditions. Young, 2- and 3- year old first-spawning herring experienced significantly lower conditions after cold winters compared to older ages, indicating an age-dependent effect of preceding winter on herring maturation cycle, condition and spawning time.

Knowledge to decision in dynamic seas: Methods to incorporate non-indigenous species into cumulative impact assessments for maritime spatial planning.

Incorporating ecosystem changes from non-indigenous species (NIS) is an important task of maritime spatial planning. Maritime spatial planning requires a framework that emphasises ecological functioning in a state of dynamic change, including changes to ecosystem services from functions introduced by new NIS. Adaptable modelling toolsets should be developed that can readily incorporate knowledge of new NIS. In the Baltic Sea, recent NIS examples are the North American mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii and the Ponto-Caspian round goby Neogobius melanostomus. We performed environmental niche modelling that predicted N. melanostomus will spread across large areas of the Baltic Sea coast while R. harrisii will be limited to regions with high temperature and low salinity conditions. We then performed a meta-analysis on literature showing effects in the Baltic Sea from these NIS and calculated the standardised effect-sizes on relevant ecosystem services. Half the impacts identified for N. melanostomus were considered to increase ecosystem service outcomes, while all R. harrisii impacts caused apparent decreases. Effect coefficients were incorporated into an online impact assessment tool developed by the Estonian Marine Institute. Users with or without science training can use the portal to estimate areas impacted and changes to natural assets (km2) caused by these NIS and cumulative effects from other pressure-types. Impact estimates are based on best available knowledge from manipulative and correlative experiments and thus form a link between science and management. Dynamic modelling techniques informed from varied ecological and methodological perspectives will effectively advise spatial planners about rapid maritime changes and mitigation actions to reduce NIS impacts especially in the focus areas.

Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years.

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966-2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments.

Outlier Loci Detect Intraspecific Biodiversity amongst Spring and Autumn Spawning Herring across Local Scales.

Herring, Clupea harengus, is one of the ecologically and commercially most important species in European northern seas, where two distinct ecotypes have been described based on spawning time; spring and autumn. To date, it is unknown if these spring and autumn spawning herring constitute genetically distinct units. We assessed levels of genetic divergence between spring and autumn spawning herring in the Baltic Sea using two types of DNA markers, microsatellites and Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, and compared the results with data for autumn spawning North Sea herring. Temporally replicated analyses reveal clear genetic differences between ecotypes and hence support reproductive isolation. Loci showing non-neutral behaviour, so-called outlier loci, show convergence between autumn spawning herring from demographically disjoint populations, potentially reflecting selective processes associated with autumn spawning ecotypes. The abundance and exploitation of the two ecotypes have varied strongly over space and time in the Baltic Sea, where autumn spawners have faced strong depression for decades. The results therefore have practical implications by highlighting the need for specific management of these co-occurring ecotypes to meet requirements for sustainable exploitation and ensure optimal livelihood for coastal communities.

Shifts in the spring herring (Clupea harengus membras) larvae and related environment in the eastern Baltic Sea over the past 50 years.

Because of the high management relevance, commercial fish related aspects have often been central in marine ecosystem investigations. The iterative shiftogram method was applied to detect occurrence, type and timing of shifts in the single and multivariate time series linked to the spring spawning herring larvae in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea). Altogether nineteen larval herring and related environmental variables were utilized during the period of 1957-2010. All the time series investigated, either single or multivariate, exhibited one or more shifts with variable type and timing. Multivariate shiftogram based on all time series identified two distinct states (1957-1983 and 1992-2010) in studied variables, separated by a smooth transition period lasting almost ten years. The observed shift was mainly related to hydroclimate and not to phenology or biota. Significantly increased variability was found in larval herring and recruitment abundances after the shift. While the shift in hydroclimate (1985-1991) was followed by the shift in phenology (1991-1997), the shift in biota occurred remarkably later (2003). It is likely that the dynamics in biota were affected by other drivers than those investigated in the current paper.