Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders. METHODS: Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037). FINDINGS: Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.8% in 2017 to 5.58% in 2037. A sustained 50% increase in antismoking advertising exposure from 2018 reduces projected prevalence in 2037 by 0.80 percentage points. Similar reductions are projected with the introduction of tobacco wholesaler and retailer licensing schemes that either permit or prohibit tobacco sales by alcohol-licensed venues (0.65 and 1.73 percentage points, respectively). Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products substantially reduces adolescent initiation, but has minimal impact on smoking prevalence in the adult population over the simulation period. Sustained reductions in antismoking advertising exposure of 50% and 100% from 2018 increase projected adult daily smoking prevalence in 2037 by 0.88 and 1.98 percentage points, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that any prudent approach to endgame planning should seek to build on rather than replace existing tobacco control measures that have proved effective to date. Additional interventions that can promote cessation are expected to be more successful in reducing smoking prevalence than interventions focussing exclusively on preventing initiation.

Bringing new tools, a regional focus, resource-sensitivity, local engagement and necessary discipline to mental health policy and planning.

BACKGROUND: While reducing the burden of mental and substance use disorders is a global challenge, it is played out locally. Mental disorders have early ages of onset, syndromal complexity and high individual variability in course and response to treatment. As most locally-delivered health systems do not account for this complexity in their design, implementation, scale or evaluation they often result in disappointing impacts. DISCUSSION: In this viewpoint, we contend that the absence of an appropriate predictive planning framework is one critical reason that countries fail to make substantial progress in mental health outcomes. Addressing this missing infrastructure is vital to guide and coordinate national and regional (local) investments, to ensure limited mental health resources are put to best use, and to strengthen health systems to achieve the mental health targets of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals. Most broad national policies over-emphasize provision of single elements of care (e.g. medicines, individual psychological therapies) and assess their population-level impact through static, linear and program logic-based evaluation. More sophisticated decision analytic approaches that can account for complexity have long been successfully used in non-health sectors and are now emerging in mental health research and practice. We argue that utilization of advanced decision support tools such as systems modelling and simulation, is now required to bring a necessary discipline to new national and local investments in transforming mental health systems. CONCLUSION: Systems modelling and simulation delivers an interactive decision analytic tool to test mental health reform and service planning scenarios in a safe environment before implementing them in the real world. The approach drives better decision-making and can inform the scale up of effective and contextually relevant strategies to reduce the burden of mental disorder and enhance the mental wealth of nations.

Systems modelling and simulation to inform strategic decision making for suicide prevention in rural New South Wales (Australia).

BACKGROUND: The need to understand and respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of suicidal behaviour in rural areas has been enabled through the Australian Government's 2015 mental health reforms facilitating a move to an evidence-based, regional approach to suicide prevention. However, a key challenge has been the complex decision-making environment and lack of appropriate tools to facilitate the use of evidence, data and expert knowledge in a way that can inform contextually appropriate strategies that will deliver the greatest impact. This paper reports the co-development of an advanced decision support tool that enables regional decision makers to explore the likely impacts of their decisions before implementing them in the real world. METHODS: A system dynamics model for the rural and remote population catchment of Western New South Wales was developed. The model was based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour and reproduced historic trends in the incidence of attempted suicide (self-harm hospitalisations) and suicide deaths in the region. A series of intervention scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on suicidal behaviour over a 10-year period. RESULTS: Post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare was forecast to deliver the greatest impact, reducing the numbers of self-harm hospitalisations and suicide deaths by 5.65% (95% interval, 4.87-6.42%) and 5.45% (4.68-6.22%), respectively. Reductions were also projected for community support programs (self-harm hospitalisations: 2.83%, 95% interval 2.23-3.46%; suicide deaths: 4.38%, 95% interval 3.78-5.00%). Some scenarios produced unintuitive impacts or effect sizes that were significantly lower than what has been anticipated under the traditional evidence-based approach to suicide prevention and provide an opportunity for learning. CONCLUSION: Systems modelling and simulation offers significant potential for regional decision makers to better understand and respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of suicidal behaviour in their catchments and more effectively allocate limited health resources.

The impact of strengthening mental health services to prevent suicidal behaviour.

OBJECTIVE: Successive suicide prevention frameworks and action plans in Australia and internationally have called for improvements to mental health services and enhancement of workforce capacity. However, there is debate regarding the priorities for resource allocation and the optimal combination of mental health services to best prevent suicidal behaviour. This study investigates the potential impacts of service capacity improvements on the incidence of suicidal behaviour in the Australian context. METHODS: A system dynamics model was developed to investigate the optimal combination of (1) secondary (acute) mental health service capacity, (2) non-secondary (non-acute) mental health service capacity and (3) resources to re-engage those lost to services on the incidence of suicidal behaviour over the period 2018-2028 for the Greater Western Sydney (Australia) population catchment. The model captured population and behavioural dynamics and mental health service referral pathways and was validated using population survey and administrative data, evidence syntheses and an expert stakeholder group. RESULTS: Findings suggest that 28% of attempted suicide and 29% of suicides could be averted over the forecast period based on a combination of increases in (1) hospital staffing (with training in trauma-informed care), (2) non-secondary health service capacity, (3) expansion of mental health assessment capacity and (4) re-engagement of at least 45% of individuals lost to services. Reduction in the number of available psychiatric beds by 15% had no substantial impact on the incidence of attempted suicide and suicide over the forecast period. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that more than one-quarter of suicides and attempted suicides in the Greater Western Sydney population catchment could potentially be averted with a combination of increases to hospital staffing and non-secondary (non-acute) mental health care. Reductions in tertiary care services (e.g. psychiatric hospital beds) in combination with these increases would not adversely affect subsequent incidence of suicidal behaviour.

Resolving the paradox of increased mental health expenditure and stable prevalence.

A doubling of Australian expenditure on mental health services over two decades, inflation-adjusted, has reduced prevalence of neither psychological distress nor mental disorders. Low rates of help-seeking, and inadequate and inequitable delivery of effective care may explain this partially, but not fully. Focusing on depressive disorders, drawing initially on ideas from the work of philosopher and socio-cultural critic Ivan Illich, we use evidence-based medicine statistics and simulation modelling approaches to develop testable hypotheses as to how iatrogenic influences on the course of depression may help explain this seeming paradox. Combined psychological treatment and antidepressant medication may be available, and beneficial, for depressed people in socioeconomically advantaged areas. But more Australians with depression live in disadvantaged areas where antidepressant medication provision without formal psychotherapy is more typical; there also are urban/non-urban disparities. Depressed people often engage in self-help strategies consistent with psychological treatments, probably often with some benefit to these people. We propose then, if people are encouraged to rely heavily on antidepressant medication only, and if they consequently reduce spontaneous self-help activity, that the benefits of the antidepressant medication may be more than offset by reductions in beneficial effects as a consequence of reduced self-help activity. While in advantaged areas, more comprehensive service delivery may result in observed prevalence lower than it would be without services, in less well-serviced areas, observed prevalence may be higher than it would otherwise be. Overall, then, we see no change. If the hypotheses receive support from the proposed research, then implications for service prioritisation and delivery could include a case for wider application of recovery-oriented practice. Critically, it would strengthen the case for action to correct inequities in the delivery of psychological treatments for depression in Australia so that combined psychological therapy and antidepressant medication, accessible and administered within an empowering framework, should be a nationally implemented standard.

Static metrics of impact for a dynamic problem: The need for smarter tools to guide suicide prevention planning and investment.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. METHODS: The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. RESULTS: Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. CONCLUSION: Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.

A decision support tool to inform local suicide prevention activity in Greater Western Sydney (Australia).

OBJECTIVES: This study describes the development of a decision support tool to identify the combination of suicide prevention activities and service priorities likely to deliver the greatest reductions in suicidal behaviour in Western Sydney (Australia) over the period 2018-2028. METHODS: A dynamic simulation model for the WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network population-catchment was developed in partnership with primary health network stakeholders based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour, and which represented the current incidence of suicide and attempted suicide in Western Sydney. A series of scenarios relating to potential suicide prevention activities and service priorities identified by primary health network stakeholders were investigated to identify the combination of interventions associated with the largest reductions in the forecast number of attempted suicide and suicide cases for a 10-year follow-up period. RESULTS: The largest number of cases averted for both suicide and attempted suicide was associated with (1) post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare (6.1% for both attempted suicide and suicide), (2) improved community support and reductions in psychological distress in the community (5.1% for attempted suicide and 14.8% for suicide), and (3) reductions in the proportion of those lost to services following a mental health service contact (10.5% for both attempted suicide and suicide). In combination, these interventions were forecast to avert approximately 29.7% of attempted suicides and 37.1% of suicides in the primary health network catchment over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the utility of dynamic simulation models, co-designed with multi-disciplinary stakeholder groups, to capture and analyse complex mental health and suicide prevention regional planning problems. The model can be used by WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network as a decision support tool to guide the commissioning of future service activity, and more efficiently frame the monitoring and evaluation of interventions as they are implemented in Western Sydney.

Decision makers' experience of participatory dynamic simulation modelling: methods for public health policy.

BACKGROUND: Systems science methods such as dynamic simulation modelling are well suited to address questions about public health policy as they consider the complexity, context and dynamic nature of system-wide behaviours. Advances in technology have led to increased accessibility and interest in systems methods to address complex health policy issues. However, the involvement of policy decision makers in health-related simulation model development has been lacking. Where end-users have been included, there has been limited examination of their experience of the participatory modelling process and their views about the utility of the findings. This paper reports the experience of end-user decision makers, including senior public health policy makers and health service providers, who participated in three participatory simulation modelling for health policy case studies (alcohol related harm, childhood obesity prevention, diabetes in pregnancy), and their perceptions of the value and efficacy of this method in an applied health sector context. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with end-user participants from three participatory simulation modelling case studies in Australian real-world policy settings. Interviewees were employees of government agencies with jurisdiction over policy and program decisions and were purposively selected to include perspectives at different stages of model development. RESULTS: The 'co-production' aspect of the participatory approach was highly valued. It was reported as an essential component of building understanding of the modelling process, and thus trust in the model and its outputs as a decision-support tool. The unique benefits of simulation modelling included its capacity to explore interactions of risk factors and combined interventions, and the impact of scaling up interventions. Participants also valued simulating new interventions prior to implementation in the real world, and the comprehensive mapping of evidence and its gaps to prioritise future research. The participatory aspect of simulation modelling was time and resource intensive and therefore most suited to high priority complex topics with contested options for intervening. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the value of a participatory approach to dynamic simulation modelling to support its utility in applied health policy settings.

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. OBJECTIVE: This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. CONCLUSION: Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. METHODS: Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991-2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. RESULTS: There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. CONCLUSIONS: The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Feasibility and acceptability of insecticide-treated plastic sheeting (ITPS) for vector control in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the feasibility and acceptability of utilizing insecticide-treated plastic sheeting (ITPS) as a malaria control intervention in Papua New Guinea (PNG). METHODS: ZeroVector® ITPS was installed in 40 homes across four study sites representing a cross section of malaria transmission risk and housing style. Structured questionnaires were completed at the time of ITPS installation (n=40) and at four weeks post installation (n=40) with the household head. Similarly, group interviews with the male and/or female household heads were completed at installation (n=5) and four-week follow-up (n=4). RESULTS: ZeroVector® ITPS was successfully installed in a range of homes employing traditional and/or modern building materials in PNG. The ITPS installations remained intact over the course of the four-week trial period and were highly acceptable to both male and female household heads. No dissatisfaction with the ITPS product was reported at four-week follow-up; however, the installation process was time consuming, participants reported a reduction in mosquito net use following ITPS installation and many participants expressed concern about the longevity of ITPS over the longer term. CONCLUSION: ZeroVector® ITPS installation is feasible and highly acceptable in a diverse range of PNG contexts and is likely to be favourably received as a vector control intervention if accessible en masse. A longer-term evaluation is required before firm policy or public health decisions can be made regarding the potential application of ITPS in the national malaria control programme. The positive study findings suggest a longer-term evaluation of this promising malaria control intervention warrants consideration.

Operational research to inform a sub-national surveillance intervention for malaria elimination in Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Successful reduction of malaria transmission to very low levels has made Isabel Province, Solomon Islands, a target for early elimination by 2014. High malaria transmission in neighbouring provinces and the potential for local asymptomatic infections to cause malaria resurgence highlights the need for sub-national tailoring of surveillance interventions. This study contributes to a situational analysis of malaria in Isabel Province to inform an appropriate surveillance intervention. METHODS: A mixed method study was carried out in Isabel Province in late 2009 and early 2010. The quantitative component was a population-based prevalence survey of 8,554 people from 129 villages, which were selected using a spatially stratified sampling approach to achieve uniform geographical coverage of populated areas. Diagnosis was initially based on Giemsa-stained blood slides followed by molecular analysis using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Local perceptions and practices related to management of fever and treatment-seeking that would impact a surveillance intervention were also explored using qualitative research methods. RESULTS: Approximately 33% (8,554/26,221) of the population of Isabel Province participated in the survey. Only one subject was found to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) (96 parasites/µL) using Giemsa-stained blood films, giving a prevalence of 0.01%. PCR analysis detected a further 13 cases, giving an estimated malaria prevalence of 0.51%. There was a wide geographical distribution of infected subjects. None reported having travelled outside Isabel Province in the previous three months suggesting low-level indigenous malaria transmission. The qualitative findings provide warning signs that the current community vigilance approach to surveillance will not be sufficient to achieve elimination. In addition, fever severity is being used by individuals as an indicator for malaria and a trigger for timely treatment-seeking and case reporting. In light of the finding of a low prevalence of parasitaemia, the current surveillance system may not be able to detect and prevent malaria resurgence. CONCLUSION: An adaption to the malERA surveillance framework is proposed and recommendations made for a tailored provincial-level surveillance intervention, which will be essential to achieve elimination, and to maintain this status while the rest of the country catches up.

The architecture and effect of participation: a systematic review of community participation for communicable disease control and elimination. Implications for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Community engagement and participation has played a critical role in successful disease control and elimination campaigns in many countries. Despite this, its benefits for malaria control and elimination are yet to be fully realized. This may be due to a limited understanding of the influences on participation in developing countries as well as inadequate investment in infrastructure and resources to support sustainable community participation. This paper reports the findings of an atypical systematic review of 60 years of literature in order to arrive at a more comprehensive awareness of the constructs of participation for communicable disease control and elimination and provide guidance for the current malaria elimination campaign. METHODS: Evidence derived from quantitative research was considered both independently and collectively with qualitative research papers and case reports. All papers included in the review were systematically coded using a pre-determined qualitative coding matrix that identified influences on community participation at the individual, household, community and government/civil society levels. Colour coding was also carried out to reflect the key primary health care period in which community participation programmes originated. These processes allowed exhaustive content analysis and synthesis of data in an attempt to realize conceptual development beyond that able to be achieved by individual empirical studies or case reports. RESULTS: Of the 60 papers meeting the selection criteria, only four studies attempted to determine the effect of community participation on disease transmission. Due to inherent differences in their design, interventions and outcome measures, results could not be compared. However, these studies showed statistically significant reductions in disease incidence or prevalence using various forms of community participation. The use of locally selected volunteers provided with adequate training, supervision and resources are common and important elements of the success of the interventions in these studies. In addition, qualitative synthesis of all 60 papers elucidates the complex architecture of community participation for communicable disease control and elimination which is presented herein. CONCLUSIONS: The current global malaria elimination campaign calls for a health systems strengthening approach to provide an enabling environment for programmes in developing countries. In order to realize the benefits of this approach it is vital to provide adequate investment in the 'people' component of health systems and understand the multi-level factors that influence their participation. The challenges of strengthening this component of health systems are discussed, as is the importance of ensuring that current global malaria elimination efforts do not derail renewed momentum towards the comprehensive primary health care approach. It is recommended that the application of the results of this systematic review be considered for other diseases of poverty in order to harmonize efforts at building 'competent communities' for communicable disease control and optimising health system effectiveness.

Exploring provider and community responses to the new malaria diagnostic and treatment regime in Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in availability and accessibility of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria treatment and the emergence of multi-drug-resistant parasites have prompted many countries to adopt ACT as the first-line drug. In 2009, Solomon Islands (SI) likewise implemented new national treatment guidelines for malaria. The ACT, Coartem® (artemether-lumefantrine) is now the primary pharmacotherapy in SI for Plasmodium falciparum malaria, Plasmodium vivax malaria or mixed infections. Targeted treatment is also recommended in the new treatment regime through maintenance of quality microscopy services and the introduction of Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs). Ascertaining the factors that influence community and provider acceptance of and adherence to the new treatment regime will be vital to improving the effectiveness of this intervention and reducing the risk of development of drug resistance. METHODS: In order to understand community and prescriber perceptions and acceptability of the new diagnostic and treatment interventions, 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) and 12 key informant interviews (KII) were carried out in rural and urban villages of Malaita Province, Solomon Islands four months subsequent to roll out of these interventions. RESULTS: Lack of access to microscopy or distrust in the accuracy of diagnostic tools were reported by some participants as reasons for the ongoing practice of presumptive treatment of malaria. Lack of confidence in RDT accuracy has negatively impacted its acceptability. Coartem® had good acceptability among most participants, however, some rural participants questioned its effectiveness due to lack of side effects and the larger quantity of tablets required to be taken. Storing of left over medication for subsequent fever episodes was reported as common. CONCLUSION: To address these issues, further training and supportive supervision of healthcare workers will be essential, as will the engagement of influential community members in health promotion activities to improve acceptability of RDTs and adherence to the new treatment regime. Exploring the extent of these issues beyond the study population must be a priority for malaria programme managers. Practices such as presumptive treatment and the taking of sub-curative doses are of considerable concern for both the health of individuals and the increased risk it poses to the development of parasite resistance to this important first-line treatment against malaria.

Malaria elimination in Isabel Province, Solomon Islands: establishing a surveillance-response system to prevent introduction and reintroduction of malaria.

BACKGROUND: The Solomon Islands National Malaria Programme is currently focused on intensified control and progressive elimination. Recent control efforts in Isabel Province have reduced their malaria incidence to 2.6/1,000 population in 2009 1 whereas most neighbouring provinces have much higher incidences. A malaria surveillance-response system that involves testing all travellers entering Isabel Province using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) to prevent cases being imported had been proposed by local health authorities. This study provides information on the feasibility and acceptability of implementing a new approach of surveillance and response in the context of low levels of indigenous malaria transmission in Isabel Province. METHODS: A total of 13 focus group discussions (FGD) and 22 key informant interviews (KII) were conducted in Isabel Province, Solomon Islands. Key topics included: the travel patterns of people to, from and within Isabel Province; the acceptability, community perceptions, attitudes and suggestions towards the proposed surveillance programme; and management of suspected malaria cases. This information was triangulated with data obtained from port authorities, airlines and passenger ships travelling to and from Isabel Province in the preceding two years. RESULTS: Travel within Isabel Province and to and from other provinces is common with marked seasonality. The majority of inter-provincial travel is done on scheduled public transport; namely passenger ships and aircrafts. In Isabel Province there is a healthy community spirit as well as high concern regarding malaria and its importation and there is currently effective malaria passive case detection and management. Conducting malaria screening at ports and airports would be acceptable to the community. CONCLUSION: A robust surveillance-response system is essential when moving towards malaria elimination. Many factors contribute positively towards the feasibility of an RDT based malaria surveillance system in Isabel Province. Due to financial and logistical restraints local health authorities have concluded that a system of community-based vigilance to identify new arrivals in villages and direct them to have malaria testing is more feasible than formal screening at ports and airports. A surveillance response system to prevent introduction of malaria into Isabel Province can be integrated into the National Malaria Control Programme provided the operational steps are carefully planned with regards to human and financial resources.

Community participation for malaria elimination in Tafea Province, Vanuatu: part II. Social and cultural aspects of treatment-seeking behaviour.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis and prompt effective case management are important components of any malaria elimination strategy. Tafea Province, Vanuatu has a rich history of traditional practices and beliefs, which have been integrated with missionary efforts and the introduction of modern constructions of health. Gaining a detailed knowledge of community perceptions of malarial symptomatology and treatment-seeking behaviours is essential in guiding effective community participation strategies for malaria control and elimination. METHOD: An ethnographic study involving nine focus group discussions (FGD), 12 key informant interviews (KII) and seven participatory workshops were carried out on Tanna Island, Vanuatu. Villages in areas of high and low malaria transmission risk were selected. Four ni-Vanuatu research officers, including two from Tanna, were trained and employed to conduct the research. Data underwent thematic analysis to examine treatment-seeking behaviour and community perceptions of malaria. RESULTS: Malaria was perceived to be a serious, but relatively new condition, and in most communities, identified as being apparent only after independence in 1980. Severe fever in the presence of other key symptoms triggered a diagnosis of malaria by individuals. Use of traditional or home practices was common: perceived vulnerability of patient and previous experience with malaria impacted on the time taken to seek treatment at a health facility. Barriers to health care access and reasons for delay in care-seeking included the availability of health worker and poor community infrastructure. CONCLUSION: Due to programme success of achieving low malaria transmission, Tafea province has been identified for elimination of malaria by 2012 in the Government of Vanuatu Malaria Action Plans (MAP). An effective malaria elimination programme requires interactions between the community and its leaders, malaria workers and health providers for success in diagnosis and prompt treatment. As malaria becomes more uncommon, utilizing unique motivators for communities to seek early diagnosis and treatment is important, particularly as other health conditions that cause fevers become increasingly more common. The design of these interventions are dependent upon robust understanding of community perceptions of disease, and the evolving nature of these perceptions.

Community participation for malaria elimination in Tafea Province, Vanuatu: Part I. Maintaining motivation for prevention practices in the context of disappearing disease.

BACKGROUND: In the 1990s, the experience of eliminating malaria from Aneityum Island, Vanuatu is often given as evidence for the potential to eliminate malaria in the south-west Pacific. This experience, however, cannot provide a blueprint for larger islands that represent more complex social and environmental contexts. Community support was a key contributor to success in Aneityum. In the context of disappearing disease, obtaining and maintaining community participation in strategies to eliminate malaria in the rest of Tafea Province, Vanuatu will be significantly more challenging. METHOD: Nine focus group discussions (FGDs), 12 key informant interviews (KIIs), three transect walks and seven participatory workshops were carried out in three villages across Tanna Island to investigate community perceptions and practices relating to malaria prevention (particularly relating to bed nets); influences on these practices including how malaria is contextualized within community health and disease priorities; and effective avenues for channelling health information. RESULTS: The primary protection method identified by participants was the use of bed nets, however, the frequency and motivation for their use differed between study villages on the basis of the perceived presence of malaria. Village, household and personal cleanliness were identified by participants as important for protection against malaria. Barriers and influences on bed net use included cultural beliefs and practices, travel, gender roles, seasonality of mosquito nuisance and risk perception. Health care workers and church leaders were reported to have greatest influence on malaria prevention practices. Participants preferred receiving health information through visiting community health promotion teams, health workers, church leaders and village chiefs. CONCLUSION: In low malaria transmission settings, a package for augmenting social capital and sustaining community participation for elimination will be essential and includes: 'sentinel sites' for qualitative monitoring of evolving local socio-cultural, behavioural and practical issues that impact malaria prevention and treatment; mobilizing social networks; intersectoral collaboration; integration of malaria interventions with activities addressing other community health and disease priorities; and targeted implementation of locally appropriate, multi-level, media campaigns that sustain motivation for community participation in malaria elimination.

'Turning the tide' on hyperglycemia in pregnancy: insights from multiscale dynamic simulation modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperglycemia in pregnancy (HIP, including gestational diabetes and pre-existing type 1 and type 2 diabetes) is increasing, with associated risks to the health of women and their babies. Strategies to manage and prevent this condition are contested. Dynamic simulation models (DSM) can test policy and program scenarios before implementation in the real world. This paper reports the development and use of an advanced DSM exploring the impact of maternal weight status interventions on incidence of HIP. METHODS: A consortium of experts collaboratively developed a hybrid DSM of HIP, comprising system dynamics, agent-based and discrete event model components. The structure and parameterization drew on a range of evidence and data sources. Scenarios comparing population-level and targeted prevention interventions were simulated from 2018 to identify the intervention combination that would deliver the greatest impact. RESULTS: Population interventions promoting weight loss in early adulthood were found to be effective, reducing the population incidence of HIP by 17.3% by 2030 (baseline ('business as usual' scenario)=16.1%, 95% CI 15.8 to 16.4; population intervention=13.3%, 95% CI 13.0 to 13.6), more than targeted prepregnancy (5.2% reduction; incidence=15.3%, 95% CI 15.0 to 15.6) and interpregnancy (4.2% reduction; incidence=15.5%, 95% CI 15.2 to 15.8) interventions. Combining targeted interventions for high-risk groups with population interventions promoting healthy weight was most effective in reducing HIP incidence (28.8% reduction by 2030; incidence=11.5, 95% CI 11.2 to 11.8). Scenarios exploring the effect of childhood weight status on entry to adulthood demonstrated significant impact in the selected outcome measure for glycemic regulation, insulin sensitivity in the short term and HIP in the long term. DISCUSSION: Population-level weight reduction interventions will be necessary to 'turn the tide' on HIP. Weight reduction interventions targeting high-risk individuals, while beneficial for those individuals, did not significantly impact forecasted HIP incidence rates. The importance of maintaining interventions promoting healthy weight in childhood was demonstrated.

A qualitative study on the acceptability and preference of three types of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets in Solomon Islands: implications for malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: In March 2008, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu governments raised the goal of their National Malaria Programmes from control to elimination. Vector control measures, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs) are key integral components of this programme. Compliance with these interventions is dependent on their acceptability and on the socio-cultural context of the local population. These factors need to be investigated locally prior to programme implementation. METHOD: Twelve focus group discussions (FGDs) were carried out in Malaita and Temotu Provinces, Solomon Islands in 2008. These discussions explored user perceptions of acceptability and preference for three brands of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLINs) and identified a number of barriers to their proper and consistent use. RESULTS: Mosquito nuisance and perceived threat of malaria were the main determinants of bed net use. Knowledge of malaria and the means to prevent it were not sufficient to guarantee compliance with LLIN use. Factors such as climate, work and evening social activities impact on the use of bed nets, particularly in men. LLIN acceptability plays a varying role in compliance with their use in villages involved in this study. Participants in areas of reported high and year round mosquito nuisance and perceived threat of malaria reported LLIN use regardless of any reported unfavourable characteristics. Those in areas of low or seasonal mosquito nuisance were more likely to describe the unfavourable characteristics of LLINs as reasons for their intermittent or non-compliance. The main criterion for LLIN brand acceptability was effectiveness in preventing mosquito bites and malaria. Discussions highlighted considerable confusion around LLIN care and washing which may be impacting on their effectiveness and reducing their acceptability in Solomon Islands. CONCLUSION: Providing LLINs that are acceptable will be more important for improving compliance in areas of low or seasonal mosquito nuisance and malaria transmission. The implications of these findings on malaria elimination in Solomon Islands are discussed.