Clinical features and outcomes of COVID-19 admissions in a population with a high prevalence of HIV and tuberculosis: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is still a paucity of evidence on the outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) and those co-infected with tuberculosis (TB), particularly in areas where these conditions are common. We describe the clinical features, laboratory findings and outcome of hospitalised PWH and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected COVID-19 patients as well as those co-infected with tuberculosis (TB). METHODS: We conducted a multicentre cohort study across three hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. All adults requiring hospitalisation with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia from March to July 2020 were analysed. RESULTS: PWH comprised 270 (19%) of 1434 admissions. There were 47 patients with active tuberculosis (3.3%), of whom 29 (62%) were PWH. Three-hundred and seventy-three patients (26%) died. The mortality in PWH (n = 71, 26%) and HIV-uninfected patients (n = 296, 25%) was comparable. In patients with TB, PWH had a higher mortality than HIV-uninfected patients (n = 11, 38% vs n = 3, 20%; p = 0.001). In multivariable survival analysis a higher risk of death was associated with older age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1.03 95%CI 1.02-1.03, p < 0.001), male sex (AHR1.38 (95%CI 1.12-1.72, p = 0.003) and being "overweight or obese" (AHR 1.30 95%CI 1.03-1.61 p = 0.024). HIV (AHR 1.28 95%CI 0.95-1.72, p 0.11) and active TB (AHR 1.50 95%CI 0.84-2.67, p = 0.17) were not independently associated with increased risk of COVID-19 death. Risk factors for inpatient mortality in PWH included CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm3, higher admission oxygen requirements, absolute white cell counts, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratios, C-reactive protein, and creatinine levels. CONCLUSION: In a population with high prevalence of HIV and TB, being overweight/obese was associated with increased risk of mortality in COVID-19 hospital admissions, emphasising the need for public health interventions in this patient population.

The Critical Need for Pooled Data on Coronavirus Disease 2019 in African Children: An AFREhealth Call for Action Through Multicountry Research Collaboration.

Globally, there are prevailing knowledge gaps in the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among children and adolescents; and these gaps are especially wide in African countries. The availability of robust age-disaggregated data is a critical first step in improving knowledge on disease burden and manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children. Furthermore, it is essential to improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2 interactions with comorbidities and coinfections such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis, malaria, sickle cell disease, and malnutrition, which are highly prevalent among children in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health (AFREhealth) COVID-19 Research Collaboration on Children and Adolescents is conducting studies across Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa to address existing knowledge gaps. This consortium is expected to generate key evidence to inform clinical practice and public health policy-making for COVID-19 while concurrently addressing other major diseases affecting children in African countries.

Feasibility and first results of a prospective cohort study to investigate cisplatin-associated ototoxicity amongst cancer patients in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer, one of the most common cancers affecting females in South Africa, commonly requires a cisplatin-based-treatment regimen, which has been associated with ototoxic side effects. However, cisplatin-associated ototoxicity is largely under-reported in South Africa, despite its impact of hearing loss having serious overt ramifications on the quality of life of these patients. Hence, a prospective cohort study was undertaken to assess the audiological changes in female cervical cancer patients receiving cisplatin therapy. OBJECTIVE: To present details of the feasibility study and initial results on hearing patterns in cervical cancer patients receiving cisplatin chemotherapy. . METHODS: Fifty cervical cancer patients commencing with cisplatin chemotherapy underwent audiological assessments at a hospital in South Africa at various time intervals. Assessments included case history, otoscopic examination, immittance audiometry, pure tone audiometry (including high-frequency audiometry), speech audiometry, and distortion product otoacoustic emission testing. Data analysis involved the use of descriptive statistics and the Cochran-Armitage trend test for a linear trend in proportions. RESULTS: Fifty participants, aged between 32 and 79 years (Mean: 53 years; SD = 11.00), were recruited. Clinical findings revealed an incidence of 100% ototoxic hearing loss at the one-month post-treatment, i.e., 98%  after three cycles of cisplatin and 2%  at one-month post-chemotherapy. Sensorineural hearing loss and high-frequency tinnitus were most common. Deterioration in hearing thresholds was more evident in the extended high-frequency range, with the number of "no-responses," from 11,200 Hz to 20,000 Hz, increasing with each successive audiological evaluation. This study further indicated that recruitment and follow-up of study participants within a limited resource setting are possible. However, cognizance must be given to a multidisciplinary approach and constant engagement with participants through regular contact either telephonically or via a short-message-system. CONCLUSION: Exposure to cisplatin treatment contributed to hearing loss in females with cervical cancer, highlighting the need for ototoxicity monitoring during chemotherapy treatments. Furthermore, the results indicate that it is possible to conduct prospective cohort studies, using a multidisciplinary approach in limited-resource environments with appropriate planning and training strategies, as this study was able to achieve its aim successfully.

Baseline audiological profiling of South African females with cervical cancer: an important attribute for assessing cisplatin-associated ototoxicity.

BACKGROUND: Cisplatin is a popular antineoplastic agent used to treat cervical cancer in women from low and middle-income countries. Cisplatin treatment is associated with ototoxicity, often resulting in hearing loss. In light of this, it is crucial to conduct baseline audiological assessments prior to treatment initiation in order to evaluate the extent of cisplatin-associated-ototoxicity. Additionally, the identification of inherent risk factors and hearing patterns in specific patient cohorts is needed, especially in South Africa, a middle-income country characterized by the quadruple burden of disease (Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Tuberculosis (TB), Diabetes and Hypertension). METHODS: This study aimed to describe a profile of risk factors and hearing in a cohort of females with cervical cancer before cisplatin treatment commenced. A descriptive study design that included 82 cervical cancer patients, who underwent audiological evaluation prescribed for ototoxicity monitoring was conducted. RESULTS: All participants (n = 82) presented with risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, HIV, and antiretroviral therapy) for cisplatin ototoxicity and/or pre-existing sensorineural hearing loss. High-frequency tinnitus was the most common otological symptom experienced by 25 (31%) participants. Fifty-nine (72%) participants presented with normal hearing, twenty-two (27%) with a sensorineural hearing loss, and 36% were diagnosed with mild hearing loss. Abnormal Distortion Product Otoacoustic Emissions (DPOAE) findings were obtained bilaterally in two participants (2.4%), in the right ear only of another two (2.4%) participants and the left ear of three participants (3.7%). Most participants (94%) had excellent word recognition scores, demonstrating an excellent ability to recognize words within normal conversational levels under optimal listening conditions. Age was significantly associated with hearing loss at all thresholds. Among the co-morbidities, an HIV positive status significantly triggered hearing loss, especially at higher frequencies. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that South African females with cervical cancer present with various co-morbidities, which may predispose them to develop cisplatin-associated -ototoxic hearing loss. Identification of these co-morbidities and hearing loss is essential for the accurate monitoring of cisplatin toxicities. Appropriate management of these patients is pivotal to reduce the adverse effects that hearing impairment can have on an individual's quality of life and to facilitate informed decision-making regarding the commencement of cisplatin chemotherapy.

Implications of COVID-19 in high burden countries for HIV/TB: A systematic review of evidence.

BACKGROUND: The triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus is one of the major global health challenges of the twenty-first century. In high burden HIV/TB countries, the spread of COVID-19 among people living with HIV is a well-founded concern. A thorough understanding of HIV/TB and COVID-19 pandemics is important as the three diseases interact. This may clarify HIV/TB/COVID-19 as a newly related field. However, several gaps remain in the knowledge of the burden of COVID-19 on patients with TB and HIV. This study was conducted to review different studies on SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or COVID-19 associated with HIV/TB co-infection or only TB, to understand the interactions between HIV, TB and COVID-19 and its implications on the burden of the COVID-19 among HIV/TB co-infected or TB patients, screening algorithm and clinical management. METHODS: We conducted an electronic search of potentially eligible studies published in English in the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, PubMed, Medrxiv, Google scholar and Clinical Trials Registry databases. We included case studies, case series and observational studies published between January, 2002 and July, 2020 in which SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and COVID-19 co-infected to HIV/TB or TB in adults. We screened titles, abstracts and full articles for eligibility. Descriptive and meta-analysis were done and results have been presented in graphs and tables. RESULTS: After removing 95 duplicates, 58 out of 437 articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 14 studies were included for descriptive analysis and seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to the descriptive analysis, the meta-analysis showed strong evidence that current TB exposure was high-risk COVID-19 group (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.06-2.65, P = 0.03). The pooled of COVID-19/TB severity rate increased from OR 4.50 (95% CI 1.12-18.10, P = 0.03), the recovery rate was high among COVID-19 compared to COVID-19/TB irrespective of HIV status (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83-2.74, P < 0.001) and the mortality was reduced among non-TB group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In summary, TB was a risk factor for COVID-19 both in terms of severity and mortality irrespective of HIV status. Structured diagnostic algorithms and clinical management are suggested to improve COVID-19/HIV/TB or COVID-19/TB co-infections outcomes.

Sero-prevalence, risk factors and distribution of sheep and goat pox in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Sheep pox and goat pox are contagious viral diseases of sheep and goats, respectively. The diseases result in substantial economic losses due to decreased milk and meat production, damage to hides and wool, and possible trade restriction. A study was undertaken in Amhara region of Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study design was used to estimate the sero-prevalence and identify associated risk factors, while retrospective study design was used to assess the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease. A total of 672 serum samples were collected from 30 Kebeles and tested using virus neutralization test. RESULTS: From a total of 672 sera tested, 104 (15.5%) were positive for sheep and goat pox virus antibody; from which 56 (17%) were sheep and 48 (14%) were goats. The diseases were prevalent in all study zones, the highest sero-prevalence was observed in South Gondar (20.9%) and the lowest in North Gondar and West Gojjam zones (11.9% each). From the potential risk factors considered (species, sex, age, agro-ecology and location); only sex and age were significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the diseases in multivariable logistic regression. Female and young animals were at higher risk than their counterparts. From January 2010 to December 2014, a total of 366 outbreaks, 12,822 cases and 1480 deaths due to SP and 182 outbreaks, 10,066 cases and 997 deaths due to GP were recorded in Amhara National Regional State. CONCLUSION: Both the serological and the outbreak data revealed that sheep and goat pox is one of the most prevalent and widespread diseases of sheep and goats in the study area. Hence, annual mass vaccination program must be implemented for economic and viable control of sheep and goat pox diseases in the Amhara region in particular and at a national level in general.

Investigation of major cattle production constraints in Kembata Tambaro zone of Southern Ethiopia using participatory epidemiology methods.

Ethiopia has enormous livestock resources from which rural households derive their livelihoods. A cross-sectional study based on participatory appraisal methods was conducted in Kembata Tambaro zone to assess major constraints to livestock production and major diseases of cattle and their treatment options. Four districts were selected purposively for this study, and 18 peasant associations were randomly sampled from the selected districts. Focus group discussion, semistructured interviews, simple ranking and scoring, proportional piling, pairwise ranking, and matrix scoring were the participatory epidemiological tools used in the study. Feed and free grazing land shortages and diseases were found to be the major constraints to cattle production in the area. Mastitis was ranked as the most serious disease of cattle. Modern veterinary treatments are used alongside traditional herbal remedies. Matrix scoring showed strong agreement between focus groups in identifying the major diseases using their indicators (clinical signs). Hence, it was concluded that indigenous knowledge complemented with participatory methods and approaches allow community and field researchers to jointly study specific livestock problems and help identify appropriate solutions.

A multiple-imputation-based approach to sensitivity analyses and effectiveness assessments in longitudinal clinical trials.

It is important to understand the effects of a drug as actually taken (effectiveness) and when taken as directed (efficacy). The primary objective of this investigation was to assess the statistical performance of a method referred to as placebo multiple imputation (pMI) as an estimator of effectiveness and as a worst reasonable case sensitivity analysis in assessing efficacy. The pMI method assumes the statistical behavior of placebo- and drug-treated patients after dropout is the statistical behavior of placebo-treated patients. Thus, in the effectiveness context, pMI assumes no pharmacological benefit of the drug after dropout. In the efficacy context, pMI is a specific form of a missing not at random analysis expected to yield a conservative estimate of efficacy. In a simulation study with 18 scenarios, the pMI approach generally provided unbiased estimates of effectiveness and conservative estimates of efficacy. However, the confidence interval coverage was consistently greater than the nominal coverage rate. In contrast, last and baseline observation carried forward (LOCF and BOCF) were conservative in some scenarios and anti-conservative in others with respect to efficacy and effectiveness. As expected, direct likelihood (DL) and standard multiple imputation (MI) yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and tended to overestimate effectiveness in those scenarios where a drug effect existed. However, in scenarios with no drug effect, and therefore where the true values for both efficacy and effectiveness were zero, DL and MI yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and effectiveness.

The Impact of an Evidence-Informed Spinal Cord Injury Activities of Daily Living Education Manual (SADL-eM): Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a catastrophic injury associated with functional loss and life-threatening complications. Many people with SCI in the Gaza Strip of Palestine are discharged from inpatient rehabilitation to the community while still lacking many daily life skills. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) seeks to test the impact of the Spinal Cord Injury Activities of Daily Living Education Manual (SADL-eM)-an evidence-based occupational therapy patient educational intervention-on rehabilitation outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The proposed trial aims to evaluate the SADL-eM intervention compared with standard treatment among people with SCI. METHODS: This is a parallel RCT with two study arms: intervention and control. A total of 90 patients treated in inpatient rehabilitation settings will be randomly allocated to two study groups. Both groups will receive standard care. The intervention group will also use the SADL-eM with their treating occupational therapist during rehabilitation. The SADL-eM is a comprehensive activities of daily living (ADL) educational tool that was codeveloped with people with SCI and stakeholders across Gaza. The self-report version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure will be used on admission (ie, baseline measure) and after 6 weeks as the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcomes include the third version of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure, the Private Religiousness Practices Scale, the Organizational Religiousness Short-Form, additional ADL domains covered by the education manual, and adherence to the intervention. The effect of the intervention will be determined using repeated-measures analysis of variance. RESULTS: This study will be conducted from April 2021 through December 2022, with results expected to be available in January 2023. CONCLUSIONS: If the SADL-eM is demonstrated as clinically effective, this will have significant implications for occupational therapy interventions in low- and middle-income countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04735887; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04735887.

A comparison of clinicopathologic features of prostate cancer between Nigerian and South African black men.

Background: Globally, prostate cancer (PCa) is the commonest non-cutaneous male malignancy. It is more aggressive among black men with little known reasons as to the cause and continued trend among black men. This disproportionate pattern of PCa especially among black men of African ancestry resident in Africa calls for a closer look. Nigeria and South Africa, combined, have the highest cumulative risk incidence of PCa in Africa. The present study investigated the clinicopathologic behaviour of PCa among Nigerian and South African black men and the relationship between the disease and socio-demographic characteristics alongside medical co-morbidities. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was undertaken in which de-identified records of 234 black men with pathologically confirmed PCa between 2007 and 2017 from two tertiary hospitals, in Nigeria (National Hospital, Abuja) and South Africa (Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town), were reviewed. Results: Median age at presentation from both countries was 66 years (interquartile range, IQR 61-73 years) while the median PSA at presentation was 46 ng/ml (IQR 16-336.5 ng/ml). Half of the men (117/234) presented with locally advanced disease while metastatic disease was observed in 65.9% (27/41) of Nigerian men and 34.1% (14/41) of South African men. Thirty-three per cent of the men presented with organ-confined disease. Overall, Nigerian men presented with less organ-confined disease and significantly higher stage of disease (p < 0.001). Risk stratification using PSA, Gleason scores and T-staging showed that 84.2% (n = 197) of all the men presented with high-risk PCa disease. There was a statistically significant difference between Nigerian and South African black men (p = 0.003) in terms of disease risk at presentation. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (Adjusted OR 1.053 (95% CI 1.003-1.106), p = 0.003) and country of residence (Adjusted OR 4.281 (95% CI 1.690-10.844), p = 0.002) had a statistically significant relationship with high risk of PCa while disease co-morbidities (like diabetes and hypertension) and rural/urban location in both countries did not. Conclusions: Disparities exist between PCa presentation and clinicopathologic behaviour among Nigerian and South African black men. Nigerian men showed higher disease risk at presentation. Environmental-genetic interactions need further exploration in the aetio-pathogenesis of PCa in black men of African ancestry.

Effect of HIV status and antiretroviral treatment on treatment outcomes of tuberculosis patients in a rural primary healthcare clinic in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected individuals in South Africa. Despite the implementation of HIV/TB integration services at primary healthcare facility level, the effect of HIV on TB treatment outcomes has not been well investigated. To provide evidence base for TB treatment outcome improvement to meet End TB Strategy goal, we assessed the effect of HIV status on treatment outcomes of TB patients at a rural clinic in the Ugu Health District, South Africa. METHODS: We reviewed medical records involving a cohort of 508 TB patients registered for treatment between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2015 at rural public sector clinic in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Data were extracted from National TB Programme clinic cards and the TB case registers routinely maintained at study sites. The effect of HIV status on TB treatment outcomes was determined by using multinomial logistic regression. Estimates used were relative risk ratio (RRR) at 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: A total of 506 patients were included in the analysis. Majority of the patients (88%) were new TB cases, 70% had pulmonary TB and 59% were co-infected with HIV. Most of HIV positive patients were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (90% (n = 268)). About 82% had successful treatment outcome (cured 39.1% (n = 198) and completed treatment (42.9% (n = 217)), 7% (n = 39) died 0.6% (n = 3) failed treatment, 3.9% (n = 20) defaulted treatment and the rest (6.6% (n = 33)) were transferred out of the facility. Furthermore, HIV positive patients had a higher mortality rate (9.67%) than HIV negative patients (2.91%)". Using completed treatment as reference, HIV positive patients not on ART relative to negative patients were more likely to have unsuccessful outcomes [RRR, 5.41; 95%CI, 2.11-13.86]. CONCLUSIONS: When compared between HIV status, HIV positive TB patients were more likely to have unsuccessful treatment outcome in rural primary care. Antiretroviral treatment seems to have had no effect on the likelihood of TB treatment success in rural primary care. The TB mortality rate in HIV positive patients, on the other hand, was higher than in HIV negative patients emphasizing the need for enhanced integrated management of HIV/TB in rural South Africa through active screening of TB among HIV positive individuals and early access to ART among HIV positive TB cases.

Clinical characteristics associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Over 130 million people have been diagnosed with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and more than one million fatalities have been reported worldwide. South Africa is unique in having a quadruple disease burden of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis, making COVID-19-related mortality of particular interest in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and associated mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a South African setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a prospective observational study of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted to the ICU of a South African tertiary hospital in Cape Town. The mortality and discharge rates were the primary outcomes. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were analysed, and multivariable robust Poisson regression model was used to identify risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to assess the association between time to death and the predictor variables. Factors associated with death (time to death) at p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Of the 402 patients admitted to the ICU, 250 (62%) died, and another 12 (3%) died in the hospital after being discharged from the ICU. The median age of the study population was 54.1 years (IQR: 46.0-61.6). The mortality rate among those who were intubated was significantly higher at 201/221 (91%). After adjusting for confounding, multivariable robust Poisson regression analysis revealed that age more than 48 years, requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, procalcitonin (PCT), Troponin T, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), and a low pH on admission all significantly predicted mortality. Three main risk factors predictive of mortality were identified in the analysis using Cox regression Cox proportional hazards regression model. HIV positive status, myalgia, and intubated in the ICU were identified as independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU was high. Older age, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, and metabolic acidosis were found to be significant predictors of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU.

Prognosis of colorectal cancer in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, the only oncology center in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in males and the second in females worldwide. According to the Addis Ababa cancer registry, it is the first in male and fourth in female in Ethiopia. However, there have not been studies on prognostic factors and survival of colorectal cancer. Hence, this study aimed to estimate survival time and identify prognostic factors. METHODS: In this institution based retrospective study, medical records review of 422 colorectal cancer patients and telephone interview was used as sources of data. Survival time was estimated using Kaplan-Meier estimator. Prognostic factors were identified using the multivariable Cox regression model. RESULTS: Patients diagnosed with rectal cancer had 76% (HR: 1.761, 95% CI: 1.173-2.644) increased risk of dying compared to colon cancer patients. Node positive patients were 3.146 (95% CI: 1.626-6.078) times likely to die compared to node-negative and metastatic cancer were 4.221 (95% CI: 2.788-6.392) times likely to die compared to non-metastatic patients. Receiving adjuvant therapy reduced the risk of death by 36.1% (HR: 0.639 (95% CI: 0.418-0.977)) compared to patients who had an only surgical resection. The median survival time was 39 months and the overall five years survival rate was 33%. CONCLUSIONS: The overall survival rate was low and a majority of the patients were young at presentation. Patient's survival is largely influenced by the advanced cancer stage at presentation and delays in the administration of adjuvant therapy. Receiving adjuvant therapy was among the good prognostic factors.

Estimating vaccine confidence levels among healthcare students and staff of a tertiary institution in South Africa: protocol of a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: The outbreak of novel COVID-19 caught the world off guard in the first quarter of 2020. To stem the tide of this pandemic, there was acceleration of the development, testing and prelicensure approval for emergency use of some COVID-19 vaccine candidates. This led to raised public concern about their safety and efficacy, compounding the challenges of vaccine hesitancy. The onus of managing and administering these vaccines to a sceptical populace when they do become available rests mostly on the shoulders of healthcare workers (HCWs). Therefore, the vaccine confidence levels of HCWs become critical to the success of vaccination endeavours. This proposed study aims to estimate the level of vaccine confidence and the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine among future HCWs and their trainers at a specific university in Cape Town, South Africa, and to identify any vaccination concerns early for targeted intervention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This proposed study is a cross-sectional survey study. An online questionnaire will be distributed to all current staff and students of the Faculty of Medicine Health Sciences of Stellenbosch University in Cape Town, South Africa. No sampling strategy will be employed. The survey questionnaire will consist of demographic questions (consisting of six items) and vaccine confidence questions (comprising six items in Likert scale format). Log binomial models will be employed to identify factors associated with vaccine confidence and intention. The strength of association will be assessed using the OR and its 95% CI. Statistical significance will be defined at a p value <0.05. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained for the study from Stellenbosch University (Human Research Ethics Committee reference number S19/01/014 (PhD)). The results will be shared with relevant health authorities, presented at conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Earlier antiretroviral initiation is independently associated with better arterial stiffness in children living with perinatally acquired HIV with sustained viral suppression in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is a major driver of morbidity and mortality in adults living with HIV. The drivers of cardiovascular disease in children living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) with sustained HIV viral suppression are unclear. OBJECTIVES: We explored the contribution of HIV-specific risk factors to arterial stiffness independently of traditional risk factors (metabolic syndrome [MetS]) in prepubertal children with PHIV with sustained viral suppression in a low-income country in Africa. METHOD: For this cross-sectional analysis, arterial stiffness was assessed by pulse wave velocity z-score (PWVz), measured using a Vicorder device. Metabolic syndrome components were measured. We retrospectively collected the antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposures, HIV stage, CD4 count and HIV viral load. A multivariate linear regression model was constructed for MetS components, retaining age and gender as obligatory variables. We then added HIV-related metrics to assess whether these had an independent or additive effect. RESULTS: We studied 77 virally suppressed children with PHIV without evidence of cardiovascular disease (from medical history and physical examination). In the initial model, the PWVz was independently associated with each MetS component. The PWVz was higher in participants with proportionally greater visceral fat (waist/height ratio), elevated lipids (triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein ratio) and insulin resistance (log homeostatic model assessment [HOMA]). The addition of age at ART initiation increased the model R 2 value from 0.36 to 0.43. In the resulting model, younger age at ART initiation was independently associated with a better PWVz (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Earlier ART initiation was independently associated with lower large artery stiffness. This effect was independent of the effect of elevated lipids, visceral fat and insulin resistance.

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country.

AIM: To identify laboratory biomarkers that predict disease severity and outcome among COVID-19 patients admitted to the Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 COVID-19 patients who were on follow up from July to October 2020. Data was described using frequency tables. Robust Poisson regression model was used to identify predictors of COVID-19 severity where adjusted relative risk (ARR), P-value and 95 CI for ARR were used to test significance. Binary Logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of statistically significant association between the explanatory variables and COVID-19 outcome where adjusted odds ratio (AOR), P-value and 95%CI for AOR were used for testing significance. RESULTS: Among the 429 patients studied, 182 (42.4%) had Severe disease at admission and the rest 247 (57.6%) had Non-severe disease. Regarding disease outcome, 45 (10.5%) died and 384 (89.5%) were discharged alive. Age group (ARR = 1.779, 95%CI = 1.405-2.252, p-value <0.0001), Neutrophil to Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (ARR = 4.769, 95%CI = 2.419-9.402 p-value <0.0001), Serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) (ARR = 1.358, 95%CI = 1.109-1.662 p-value = 0.003), Sodium (ARR = 1.321, 95%CI = 1.091-1.600 p-value = 0.004) and Potassium (ARR = 1.269, 95%CI = 1.059-1.521 p-value = 0.010) were found to be significant predictors of COVID-19 severity. The following factors were significantly associated with COVID-19 outcome; age group (AOR = 2.767, 95%CI = 1.099-6.067, p-value = 0.031), white blood cell count (WBC) (AOR = 4.253, 95%CI = 1.918-9.429, p-value = 0.0001) and sodium level (AOR = 3.435, 95%CI = 1.439-8.198, p-value = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Assessing and monitoring the laboratory markers of WBC, NLR, SGOT, sodium and potassium levels at the earliest stage of the disease could have a considerable role in halting disease progression and death.

Characteristics and outcome profile of hospitalized African patients with COVID-19: The Ethiopian context.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a different picture in Africa; the first case was identified in the continent after it had already caused a significant loss to the rest of the world and the reported number of cases and mortality rate has been low. Understanding the characteristics and outcome of the pandemic in the African setup is therefore crucial. AIM: To assess the characteristics and outcome of Patients with COVID-19 and to identify determinants of the disease outcome among patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 1345 consecutively admitted RT-PCR confirmed Patients with COVID-19 from July to September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to clinical recovery and the independent variables, where adjusted hazard ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted hazard ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. Binary logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of a statistically significant association between disease outcome and the independent variables, where adjusted odds ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. RESULTS: Among the study population, 71 (5.3%) died, 72 (5.4%) were transferred and the rest 1202 (89.4%) were clinically improved. The median time to clinical recovery was 14 days. On the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model; temperature (AHR = 1.135, 95% CI = 1.011, 1.274, p-value = 0.032), COVID-19 severity (AHR = 0.660, 95% CI = 0.501, 0.869, p-value = 0.003), and cough (AHR = 0.705, 95% CI = 0.519, 0.959, p-value = 0.026) were found to be significant determinants of time to clinical recovery. On the binary logistic regression, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with disease outcome; SPO2 (AOR = 0.302, 95% CI = 0.193, 0.474, p-value = 0.0001), shortness of breath (AOR = 0.354, 95% CI = 0.213, 0.590, p-value = 0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR = 0.549, 95% CI = 0.337, 0.894, p-value = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The average duration of time to clinical recovery was 14 days and 89.4% of the patients achieved clinical recovery. The mortality rate of the studied population is lower than reports from other countries including those in Africa. Having severe COVID-19 disease severity and presenting with cough were found to be associated with delayed clinical recovery of the disease. On the other hand, being hyperthermic is associated with shorter disease duration (faster time to clinical recovery). In addition, lower oxygen saturation, subjective complaint of shortness of breath and being diabetic were associated with unfavorable disease outcome. Therefore, patients with these factors should be followed cautiously for a better outcome.

Exploring the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors in Southwestern Ethiopia.

Childhood diarrhea has been one of the major public health concerns in countries that have limited resources like Ethiopia. Understanding the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors would contribute to safeguard children from adverse health effects through early warning mechanisms. Thus, this study aimed at exploring the association between childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors to enable reducing health risks. A retrospective study design was used to explore the association between meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in southwestern Ethiopia from 2010 to 2017. Mann Kendall trend test and Spearman's correlation were computed to test the association of childhood diarrhea and meteorological factors. The space-time permutation model was used to identify the risky periods, seasons with most likely clusters, and high childhood diarrhea. Similarly, a negative binomial regression model was fitted to determine the predictability of meteorological factors for childhood diarrhea. The highest childhood diarrhea morbidity was 92.60 per 1000 per under five children. The risk of childhood diarrhea increased by 16.66% (RR: 1.1666; 95% CI: 1.164-1.168) per increase in 1 °C temperature. Furthermore, rainfall was found to be a significant risk factor of childhood diarrhea, with 0.16% (RR: 1.00167; 95% CI: 1.001306-1.001928) per 1 mm increase in rainfall. The temperature was positively correlated with the occurrence of childhood diarrhea. But the association with rainfall showed spatial variability. The space-time permutation model revealed that dry season was found to be a high-risk period with excess childhood diarrhea. The results showed that the observed association between meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea could be used as evidence for early warning systems for the prevention of childhood diarrhea.

Spatiotemporal and hotspot detection of U5-children diarrhea in resource-limited areas of Ethiopia.

Under-five children (U5-children) diarrhea is a significant public health threat, where the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported it as the second leading cause of children's death worldwide. Nearly 1.7 billion cases occur annually with varied temporal and spatial factors. Identification of the spatiotemporal pattern and hotspot areas of U5-children diarrhea can assist targeted intervention and provide an early warning for more effective response measures. This study aimed at examining spatiotemporal variability along with the detection of hotspot areas for U5-children diarrhea in the Bench Maji Zone of southwestern Ethiopia, where resources are limited and cultural heterogeneity is highest. Retrospective longitudinal data of ten years of diarrhea records from January 2008 to December 2017 were used to identify hotspot areas. The incidence rate per 1,000 per year among children was calculated along with seasonal patterns of cases. The spatiotemporal analysis was made using SaTScan version 9.4, while spatial autocorrelations and hotspot identification were generated using ArcGIS 10.5 software. A total of 90,716 U5-children diarrhea cases were reported with an annual incidence rate of 36.1 per 1,000 U5-children, indicating a relative risk (RR) of 1.6 and a log-likelihood ratio (LLR) of 1,347.32 (p < 0.001). The highest incidence of diarrhea illness was recorded during the dry season and showed incidence rate increment from October to February. The risky clusters (RR > 1) were in the districts of Bero, Maji, Surma, Minit Shasha, Guraferda, Mizan Aman Town, and Sheko with annual cases of 127.93, 68.5, 65.12, 55.03, 55.67, 54.14 and 44.97 per 1,000, respectively. The lowest annual cases reported were in the four districts of Shay Bench, South Bench, North Bench, and Minit Goldiya, where RR was less than a unit. Six most likely clusters (Bero, Minit Shasha, Surma, Guraferda, South Bench, and Maji) and one lower RR area (North Bench) were hotspot districts. The U5-children's diarrhea in the study area showed an overall increasing trend during the dry seasons with non-random distribution over space and time. The data recorded during ten years and analyzed with the proper statistical tools helped to identify the hotspot areas with risky seasons where diarrhea could increase.

Individual and community-level risk factors in under-five children diarrhea among agro-ecological zones in southwestern Ethiopia.

Under-five children diarrhea remains a major public health problem in resource-limited areas, including Ethiopia, due to multiple risk factors. This study aimed to identify individual and community-level risk factors affecting under-five children diarrhea (UFCD) in five districts of the Bench Maji Zone, southwestern Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from February to April 2018. A total of 826 households were recruited from five randomly selected districts using stratified sampling. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify risk factors associated with UFCD. The prevalence of UFCD in the study area was found to be 18.3%. Children less than six months of age are more at risk for diarrhea (95% CI for AOR2.5;1.23-4.90). Most probably initiating supplementary feedings before six months of age is one of the main risk factor for diarrhea (95% CI for AOR 0.65; 0.45-0.98). Similarly, mothers with low educational status (95% CI for AOR 0.30; 0.10-0.84), limited knowledge of mothers' about diarrhea (95% CI for AOR 0.24; 0.15-0.40), absence of hand washing among mothers/caregivers at critical times (95% CI for AOR 4.6; 2.88-7.67), and sharing of the residence with domestic animals (95% CI for AOR 2.87, 1.75-4.67) were the predictors of UFCD at individual-level. Children living in semi pastoral areas (95% CI for AOR 0.22; 0.10-0.50) unvaccinated children for rotavirus prevention (95% CI AOR 5.22, 3.33-8.20), households obtaining water from unimproved sources (95% CI for AOR 2.53; 1.60-4.40), and households with unimproved latrine facilities (95% CI for AOR 0.60; 0.33-0.99) were the risk factors of UFCD at the community-level. The study revealed that UFCD is a critical health concern in southwestern Ethiopia, where integrated intervention approach at individual and community level could help to alleviate the problem. At individual level, behavioral change intervention on handwashing, exclusive breast-feeding before the age of six months, and awareness on diarrhea prevention methods are critical areas of intervention. Likewise, provision of safe and adequate water source combined with household water chlorination, and vaccination for rotavirus are interventions at community that need to be integrated with the individual-level of intervention. This could significantly contribute for the reduction of UFCD in the resource limited areas through intersectoral collaboration of the health and other sectors.