Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios.

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between -20 to -75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50 to -75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed -75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector.

Current practices in marine systematic conservation planning: protocol for a global scoping review.

Background: Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) involves a series of steps to identify conservation areas and develop management strategies, incorporating feedbacks, revisions, and iterations at any stage. It is a valuable tool in facilitating the effective implementation of Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning (EB-MSP). However, few efforts have been carried out to summarize information on methods, trends, and progress in SCP in the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The present work aims at providing the protocol to perform a scoping review (ScR) to assess the contribution of SCP to the design of effective MPA networks, identifying both the development of good practices and the presence of gaps of knowledge in terms of criteria for their implementation. Protocol: The ScR will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for ScRs supported the definition of this protocol. The three databases Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar will be used for the bibliographic search. Inclusion criteria will be as follows: studies applying SCP in the marine realms worldwide, assessing its contribution to the design of MPA networks. Both peer-reviewed and grey literature will be considered for eligibility. No search limitations will be applied regarding publications' year, stage, subject area and source type. Studies in English, French, German, Greek, Italian, and Spanish will be reviewed. Grey literature will be sourced from pre-print archives, institutional websites and other web-based search engines. The Covidence software will be used for the process of documents selection and data extraction. The findings of the ScR will be presented through tables, graphs, and maps, accompanied by a narrative summary of the outcomes. Conclusions: This comprehensive approach will provide a visual representation of the data, enhancing the understanding and interpretation of the results.

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas.

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.