Detection of Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 in environmental waters of rural Bangladesh: a flow-cytometry-based field trial.

Presence of Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 in the waters of the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh, was investigated with quantitative measurements performed with a portable flow cytometer. The relevance of this work relates to the testing of a field-adapted measurement protocol that might prove useful for cholera epidemic surveillance and for validation of mathematical models. Water samples were collected from different water bodies that constitute the hydrological system of the region, a well-known endemic area for cholera. Water was retrieved from ponds, river waters, and irrigation canals during an inter-epidemic time period. Each sample was filtered and analysed with a flow cytometer for a fast determination of V. cholerae cells contained in those environments. More specifically, samples were treated with O1- and O139-specific antibodies, which allowed precise flow-cytometry-based concentration measurements. Both serogroups were present in the environmental waters with a consistent dominance of V. cholerae O1. These results extend earlier studies where V. cholerae O1 and O139 were mostly detected during times of cholera epidemics using standard culturing techniques. Furthermore, our results confirm that an important fraction of the ponds' host populations of V. cholerae are able to self-sustain even when cholera cases are scarce. Those contaminated ponds may constitute a natural reservoir for cholera endemicity in the Matlab region. Correlations of V. cholerae concentrations with environmental factors and the spatial distribution of V. cholerae populations are also discussed.

On species persistence-time distributions.

We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction in a given geographic region, are empirically estimated from local observations of species' presence/absence. A connected sampling problem is presented, generalized and solved analytically. Species persistence is shown to provide a direct connection with key spatial macroecological patterns like species-area and endemics-area relationships. Our empirical analysis pertains to two different ecosystems and taxa: a herbaceous plant community and a estuarine fish database. Despite the substantial differences in ecological interactions and spatial scales, we confirm earlier evidence on the general properties of the scaling of persistence times, including the predicted effects of the structure of the spatial interaction network. The framework tested here allows to investigate directly nature and extent of spatial effects in the context of ecosystem dynamics. The notable coherence between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns, theoretically derived and empirically verified, is suggested to underlie general features of the dynamic evolution of ecosystems.

Dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of metapopulation occupancy in patchy habitats.

Spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat suitability and connectivity among mosaics of heterogeneous wetlands are critical for biological diversity and species persistence in aquatic patchy landscapes. Despite the recognized importance of stochastic hydroclimatic forcing in driving wetlandscape hydrological dynamics, linking such effects to emergent dynamics of metapopulation poses significant challenges. To fill this gap, we propose here a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM), which links parsimonious hydrological and ecological models to simulate spatio-temporal patterns in species occupancy in wetlandscapes. Our work aims to place ecological studies of patchy habitats into a proper hydrologic and climatic framework to improve the knowledge about metapopulation shifts in response to climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes. We applied the dynamic version of the SPOM (D-SPOM) framework in two wetlandscapes in the US with contrasting landscape and climate properties. Our results illustrate that explicit consideration of the temporal dimension proposed in the D-SPOM is important to interpret local- and landscape-scale patterns of habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy. Our analyses show that spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by the stochasticity in hydroclimatic forcing, influence metapopulation occupancy and the topological metrics of the emergent wetlandscape dispersal network. D-SPOM simulations also reveal that the extinction risk in dynamic wetlandscapes is exacerbated by extended dry periods when suitable habitat decreases, hence limiting successful patch colonization and exacerbating metapopulation extinction risks. The proposed framework is not restricted only to wetland studies but could also be applied to examine metapopulation dynamics in other types of patchy habitats subjected to stochastic external disturbances.

The role of aquatic reservoir fluctuations in long-term cholera patterns.

We propose and analyze an important extension of standard cholera epidemiological models, explicitly accounting for fluctuations of water availability to the human community under study. The seasonality of water input in the reservoir drives the variation of concentration of Vibrio cholerae. Two compartments are added to the Susceptible-Infected-Bacteria model. First, the recovered individuals, which, over many seasons, lose their immunity to the disease and replenish the Susceptible group. Second, the water volume of the reservoir, which determines bacterial dilution and, consequently, the probability of contracting cholera by ingesting contaminated water. By forcing the model with a seasonally varying hydrologic input, we obtain simulations that can be compared to available data for various regions of the World characterized by different hydrological and epidemiological regimes. The model is shown to satisfactorily reproduce important characteristics of disease insurgence and long-term persistence. Using bifurcation analysis of nonlinear systems, we also explore how different degrees of seasonality and values of the basic reproductive number can change the expected long-term epidemiological time series. We find that there exist parametric conditions where the model shows chaotic patterns - i.e. high unpredictability especially in the amplitude of prevalence peaks - which very much resemble actual data on long-term cholera insurgence.

Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation.

We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000-2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.

On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics.

We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links that are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of waterborne pathogens. Using the diffusion approximation, we analytically derive the speed of propagation for travelling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices (either one-dimensional or two-dimensional) endowed with uniform population density. Power laws are found that relate the propagation speed to the diffusion coefficient and the basic reproduction number. We numerically obtain the related, slower speed of epidemic spreading for more complex, yet realistic river structures such as Peano networks and optimal channel networks. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population sizes proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak time scales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, time scales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models.