Complex differences in infection rates between ethnic groups in Scotland: a retrospective, national census-linked cohort study of 1.65 million cases.

BACKGROUND: Ethnicity can influence susceptibility to infection, as COVID-19 has shown. Few countries have systematically investigated ethnic variations in infection. METHODS: We linked the Scotland 2001 Census, including ethnic group, to national databases of hospitalizations/deaths and serological diagnoses of bloodborne viruses for 2001-2013. We calculated age-adjusted rate ratios (RRs) in 12 ethnic groups for all infections combined, 15 infection categories, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses. RESULTS: We analysed over 1.65 million infection-related hospitalisations/deaths. Compared with White Scottish, RRs for all infections combined were 0.8 or lower for Other White British, Other White and Chinese males and females, and 1.2-1.4 for Pakistani and African males and females. Adjustment for socioeconomic status or birthplace had little effect. RRs for specific infection categories followed similar patterns with striking exceptions. For HIV, RRs were 136 in African females and 14 in males; for HBV, 125 in Chinese females and 59 in males, 55 in African females and 24 in males; and for HCV, 2.3-3.1 in Pakistanis and Africans. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic differences were found in overall rates and many infection categories, suggesting multiple causative pathways. We recommend census linkage as a powerful method for studying the disproportionate impact of COVID-19.

The challenge of using routinely collected data to compare hospital admission rates by ethnic group: a demonstration project in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Recording patients' ethnic group supports efforts to achieve equity in health care provision. Before the Equality Act (2010), recording ethnic group at hospital admission was poor in Scotland but has improved subsequently. We describe the first analysis of the utility of such data nationally for monitoring ethnic variation. METHODS: We analysed all in-patient or day case hospital admissions in 2013. We imputed missing data using the most recent ethnic group recorded for a patient from 2009 to 2015. For episodes lacking an ethnic code, we attributed known ethnic codes proportionately. Using the 2011 Census population, we calculated rates and rate ratios for all-cause admissions and ischaemic heart diseases (IHDs) directly standardized for age. RESULTS: Imputation reduced missing ethnic group codes from 24 to 15% and proportionate redistribution to zero. While some rates for both all-cause and IHD admissions appeared plausible, unexpectedly low or high rates were observed for several ethnic groups particularly amongst White groups and newly coded groups. CONCLUSIONS: Completeness of ethnicity recoding on hospital admission records has improved markedly since 2010. However the validity of admission rates based on these data is variable across ethnic groups and further improvements are required to support monitoring of inequality.

Test, test, test for COVID-19 antibodies: the importance of sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody tests of varying specificity and sensitivity are now available. For informing individuals whether they have had coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), they need to be very accurate. For measuring population prevalence of past infection, the numbers of false positives and negatives need to be roughly equal. With a series of worked examples for a notional population of 100,000 people, we show that even test systems with a high specificity can yield a large number of false positive results, especially where the population prevalence is low. For example, at a true population prevalence of 5%, using a test with 99% sensitivity and specificity, 16% of positive results will be false and thus 950 people will be incorrectly informed they have had the infection. Further confirmatory testing may be needed. Giving false reassurance on which personal or societal decisions might be based could be harmful for individuals, undermine public confidence and foster further outbreaks.

Ethnic variations in falls and road traffic injuries resulting in hospitalisation or death in Scotland: the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate ethnic differences in falls and road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort of 4.62 million people, linking the Scottish Census 2001, with self-reported ethnicity, to hospitalisation and death records for 2001-2013. METHODS: We selected cases with International Classification of Diseases-10 diagnostic codes for falls and RTIs. Using Poisson regression, age-adjusted risk ratios (RRs, multiplied by 100 as percentages) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by sex for 10 ethnic groups with the White Scottish as reference. We further adjusted for country of birth and socio-economic status (SES). RESULTS: During about 49 million person-years, there were 275,995 hospitalisations or deaths from fall-related injuries and 43,875 from RTIs. Compared with the White Scottish, RRs for falls were higher in most White and Mixed groups, e.g., White Irish males (RR: 131; 95% CI: 122-140) and Mixed females (126; 112-143), but lower in Pakistani males (72; 64-81) and females (72; 63-82) and African females (79; 63-99). For RTIs, RRs were higher in other White British males (161; 147-176) and females (156; 138-176) and other White males (119; 104-137) and females (143; 121-169) and lower in Pakistani females (74; 57-98). The ethnic variations differed by road user type, with few cases among non-White motorcyclists and non-White female cyclists. The RRs were minimally altered by adjustment for country of birth or SES. CONCLUSION: We found important ethnic variations in injuries owing to falls and RTIs, with generally lower risks in non-White groups. Culturally related differences in behaviour offer the most plausible explanation, including variations in alcohol use. The findings do not point to the need for new interventions in Scotland at present. However, as the ethnic mix of each country is unique, other countries could benefit from similar data linkage-based research.

Differences in all-cause hospitalisation by ethnic group: a data linkage cohort study of 4.62 million people in Scotland, 2001-2013.

OBJECTIVES: Immigration into Europe has raised contrasting concerns about increased pressure on health services and equitable provision of health care to immigrants or ethnic minorities. Our objective was to find out if there were important differences in hospital use between the main ethnic groups in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: A census-based data linkage cohort study. METHODS: We anonymously linked Scotland's Census 2001 records for 4.62 million people, including their ethnic group, to National Health Service general hospitalisation records for 2001-2013. We used Poisson regression to calculate hospitalisation rate ratios (RRs) in 14 ethnic groups, presented as percentages of the White Scottish reference group (RR = 100), for males and females separately. We adjusted for age and socio-economic status and compared those born in the United Kingdom or the Republic of Ireland (UK/RoI) with elsewhere. We calculated mean lengths of hospital stay. RESULTS: 9.79 million hospital admissions were analysed. Compared with the White Scottish, unadjusted RRs for both males and females in most groups were about 50-90, e.g. Chinese males 49 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 45-53) and Indian females 76 (95% CI 71-81). The exceptions were White Irish, males 120 (95% CI 117-124) and females 115 (95% CI 112-119) and Caribbean females, 103 (95% CI 85-126). Adjusting for age increased the RRs for most groups towards or above the reference. Socio-economic status had little effect. In many groups, those born outside the UK/RoI had lower admission rates. Unadjusted mean lengths of stay were substantially lower in most ethnic minorities. CONCLUSIONS: Use of hospital beds in Scotland by most ethnic minorities was lower than by the White Scottish majority, largely explained by their younger average age. Other countries should use similar methods to assess their own experience.

Physical, mental and social consequences in civilians who have experienced war-related sexual violence: a systematic review (1981-2014).

OBJECTIVES: To identify the health outcomes of sexual violence on civilians in conflict zones between 1981 and 2014. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: For the purpose of this study, we defined sexual violence as sexual torture including, individual rape, gang rape, and sexual slavery. All types of conflicts were included (intrastate, interstate, and internationalized intrastate). Quantitative and mixed-method studies, reporting any physical, mental, and social consequences, were retrieved from Medline, Embase, Global Health, Global Health Library, WHOLIS, Popline, and Web of Sciences (n = 3075) and from checking reference lists and personal communications (n = 359). Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and MetaXL. Given inherent variation, the means derived from combining studies were misleading; thus, we focused on the range of values. RESULTS: The 20 studies were from six countries, five in Africa (18 studies), and especially in Democratic Republic of Congo (12 studies). The number of subjects varied from 63 to 20,517, with 17 studies including more than 100 subjects. Eight studies included males. Gang rape, rape, and abduction were the most commonly reported types of sexual violence. Sixteen studies provided data on physical outcomes of which the most common were pregnancy (range 3.4-46.3%), traumatic genital injuries/tears (range 2.1-28.7%), rectal and vaginal fistulae (range 9.0-40.7%), sexual problems/dysfunction (range 20.1-56.7%), and sexually transmitted diseases (range 4.6-83.6%). Mental health outcomes were reported in 14 studies, the most frequent being post-traumatic stress disorder (range 3.1-75.9%), anxiety (range 6.9-75%), and depression (range 8.8-76.5%). Eleven studies provided social outcomes, the most common being rejection by family and/or community (range of 3.5-28.5%) and spousal abandonment (range 6.1-64.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Wartime sexual violence is highly traumatic, causing multiple, long-term negative outcomes. The number and quality of studies published does not match the significance of the problem. The findings highlight the need for care of the survivors and their relatives and raise concerns about how they and their children will be affected in the long term.

Associations between weight change and biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk in South Asians: secondary analyses of the PODOSA trial.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The association of weight changes with cardiometabolic biomarkers in South Asians has been sparsely studied. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We measured cardiometabolic biomarkers at baseline and after 3 years in the Prevention of Diabetes and Obesity in South Asians Trial. We investigated the effect of a lifestyle intervention on biomarkers in the randomized groups. In addition, treating the population as a single cohort, we estimated the association between change in weight and change in biomarkers. RESULTS: Complete data were available at baseline and after 3 years in 151 participants. At 3 years, there was an adjusted mean reduction of 1·44 kg (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.18-2.71) in weight and 1.59 cm (95% CI: 0.08-3.09) in waist circumference in the intervention arm as compared with the control arm. There was no clear evidence of difference between the intervention and control arms in change of mean value of any biomarker. As a single cohort, every 1 kg weight reduction during follow-up was associated with a reduction in triglycerides (-1.3%, P=0.048), alanine aminotransferase (-2.5%, P=0.032), gamma-glutamyl transferase (-2.2%, P=0.040), leptin (-6.5%, P<0.0001), insulin (-3.7%, P=0.0005), fasting glucose (-0.8%, P=0.0071), 2-h glucose (-2.3%, P=0.0002) and Homeostatic Model Assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR: -4.5%, P=0.0002). There was no evidence of associations with other lipid measures, tissue plasminogen activator, markers of inflammation or blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that modest weight decrease in SAs is associated with improvements in markers of total and ectopic fat as well as insulin resistance and glycaemia in South Asians at risk of diabetes. Future trials with more intensive weight change are needed to extend these findings.

A comparison of South Asian specific and established BMI thresholds for determining obesity prevalence in pregnancy and predicting pregnancy complications: findings from the Born in Bradford cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To describe how maternal obesity prevalence varies by established international and South Asian specific body mass index (BMI) cut-offs in women of Pakistani origin and investigate whether different BMI thresholds can help to identify women at risk of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective bi-ethnic birth cohort study (the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort). SETTING: Bradford, a deprived city in the North of the UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 8478 South Asian and White British pregnant women participated in the BiB cohort study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal obesity prevalence; prevalence of known obesity-related adverse pregnancy outcomes: mode of birth, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), gestational diabetes, macrosomia and pre-term births. RESULTS: Application of South Asian BMI cut-offs increased prevalence of obesity in Pakistani women from 18.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.6-19.9) to 30.9% (95% CI 29.5-32.2). With the exception of pre-term births, there was a positive linear relationship between BMI and prevalence of adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, across almost the whole BMI distribution. Risk of gestational diabetes and HDP increased more sharply in Pakistani women after a BMI threshold of at least 30 kg m(-2), but there was no evidence of a sharp increase in any risk factors at the new, lower thresholds suggested for use in South Asian women. BMI was a good single predictor of outcomes (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.596-0.685 for different outcomes); prediction was more discriminatory and accurate with BMI as a continuous variable than as a binary variable for any possible cut-off point. CONCLUSION: Applying the new South Asian threshold to pregnant women would markedly increase those who were referred for monitoring and lifestyle advice. However, our results suggest that lowering the BMI threshold in South Asian women would not improve the predictive ability for identifying those who were at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Culturally adapting the prevention of diabetes and obesity in South Asians (PODOSA) trial.

Type 2 diabetes is extremely common in South Asians, e.g. in men from Pakistani and Indian populations it is about three times as likely as in the general population in England, despite similarities in body mass index. Lifestyle interventions reduce the incidence of diabetes. Trials in Europe and North America have not, however, reported on the impact on South Asian populations separately or provided the details of their cross-cultural adaptation processes. Prevention of diabetes and obesity in South Asians (PODOSA) is a randomized, controlled trial in Scotland of an adapted, lifestyle intervention aimed at reducing weight and increasing physical activity to reduce type 2 diabetes in Indians and Pakistanis. The trial was adapted from the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study. We describe, reflect on and discuss the following key issues: The core adaptations to the trial design, particularly the delivery of the intervention in homes by dietitians rather than in clinics. The use of both a multilingual panel and professional translators to help translate and/or develop materials. The processes and challenges of phonetic translation. How intervention resources were adapted, modified, newly developed and translated into Urdu and Gurmukhi (written Punjabi). The insights gained in PODOSA (including time pressures on investigators, imperfections in the adaptation process, the power of verbal rather than written information, the utilization of English and the mother-tongue languages simultaneously by participants and the costs) might help the research community, given the challenge of health promotion in multi-ethnic, urban societies.

A four-stage model explaining the higher risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Asians compared with European populations.

With approximately 1.5 billion people at risk, the staggeringly high risk of Type 2 diabetes in South Asians comprises a global problem. The causes of this high risk are complex, with 23 major risk factors identified in a Lancet seminar. This paper proposes a four-stage explanatory model: (1) the birth of a small, adipose, lowlean mass South Asian baby--the phenotype tracking through life; (2) in childhood and early adulthood, the deposition of any excess energy intake preferentially in upper body and ectopic fat stores rather than in the lower body or superficial subcutaneous fat stores; (3) as a consequence of points 1 and 2, and exacerbated by an environment of low physical activity and excess calories, the accelerated appearance of high levels of plasma insulin, triglycerides and glucose, and the fatty-liver vicious cycle; (4) ß-cell failure as a result of fewer ß-cells at birth, exposure to apoptotic triggers such as fat in the pancreas, and high demand from insulin resistance, which causes diabetes. Other risk factors--especially energy-dense hyperglycaemic diet and low physical activity--play into this pathway. The recommended behavioural changes fit with this model, which brings clarity to guide future research, policy, practice and health promotion.

Meteorological conditions and incidence of Legionnaires' disease in Glasgow, Scotland: application of statistical modelling.

This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires' disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P = 0·0236) and wind speed (negative, P = 0·033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P = 0·0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.

Major ethnic group differences in breast cancer screening uptake in Scotland are not extinguished by adjustment for indices of geographical residence, area deprivation, long-term illness and education.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer screening data generally show lower uptake in minority ethnic groups. We investigated whether such variations occur in Scotland. METHODS: Using non-disclosive computerised linkage we combined Scottish breast screening and Census 2001 data. Non-attendance at first breast-screening invitation (2002-2008) was compared between 11 ethnic groups using age-adjusted risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), multiplied by 100, using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Compared with the White Scottish (RR=100), non-attendance was similar for Other White British (99.5, 95% CI 96.1-103.2) and Chinese (112.8, 95% CI 96.3-132.2) and higher for Pakistani (181.7, 95% CI 164.9-200.2), African (162.2, 95% CI 130.8-201.1), Other South Asian (151.7, 95% CI 118.9-193.7) and Indian (141.7, 95% CI 121.1-165.7) groups. Adjustment for rural vs urban residence, long-term illness, area deprivation and education, associated with risk of non-attendance, increased the RR for non-attendance except for Pakistani women where it was modestly attenuated (RR=164.9, 149.4-182.1). CONCLUSION: Our data show important inequality in breast cancer screening uptake, not attenuated by potential confounding factors. Ethnic inequalities in breast screening attendance are of concern especially given evidence that the traditionally lower breast cancer rates in South Asian groups are converging towards the risks in the White UK population. Notwithstanding the forthcoming review of breast cancer screening, these data call for urgent action.