Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Ocean pH fluctuations affect mussel larvae at key developmental transitions.

Coastal marine ecosystems experience dynamic fluctuations in seawater carbonate chemistry. The importance of this variation in the context of ocean acidification requires knowing what aspect of variability biological processes respond to. We conducted four experiments (ranging from 3 to 22 days) with different variability regimes (pHT 7.4-8.1) assessing the impact of diel fluctuations in carbonate chemistry on the early development of the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Larval shell growth was consistently correlated to mean exposures, regardless of variability regimes, indicating that calcification responds instantaneously to seawater chemistry. Larval development was impacted by timing of exposure, revealing sensitivity of two developmental processes: development of the shell field, and transition from the first to the second larval shell. Fluorescent staining revealed developmental delay of the shell field at low pH, and abnormal development thereof was correlated with hinge defects in D-veligers. This study shows, for the first time, that ocean acidification affects larval soft-tissue development, independent from calcification. Multiple developmental processes additively underpin the teratogenic effect of ocean acidification on bivalve larvae. These results explain why trochophores are the most sensitive life-history stage in marine bivalves and suggest that short-term variability in carbonate chemistry can impact early larval development.

Continuously fluctuating selection reveals extreme granularity and parallelism of adaptive tracking.

Temporally fluctuating environmental conditions are a ubiquitous feature of natural habitats. Yet, how finely natural populations adaptively track fluctuating selection pressures via shifts in standing genetic variation is unknown. We generated high-frequency, genome-wide allele frequency data from a genetically diverse population of Drosophila melanogaster in extensively replicated field mesocosms from late June to mid-December, a period of ∼12 generations. Adaptation throughout the fundamental ecological phases of population expansion, peak density, and collapse was underpinned by extremely rapid, parallel changes in genomic variation across replicates. Yet, the dominant direction of selection fluctuated repeatedly, even within each of these ecological phases. Comparing patterns of allele frequency change to an independent dataset procured from the same experimental system demonstrated that the targets of selection are predictable across years. In concert, our results reveal fitness-relevance of standing variation that is likely to be masked by inference approaches based on static population sampling, or insufficiently resolved time-series data. We propose such fine-scaled temporally fluctuating selection may be an important force maintaining functional genetic variation in natural populations and an important stochastic force affecting levels of standing genetic variation genome-wide.

Standing genetic variation fuels rapid adaptation to ocean acidification.

Global climate change has intensified the need to assess the capacity for natural populations to adapt to abrupt shifts in the environment. Reductions in seawater pH constitute a conspicuous global change stressor that is affecting marine ecosystems globally. Here, we quantify the phenotypic and genetic modifications associated with rapid adaptation to reduced seawater pH in the Mediterranean mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis. We reared a genetically diverse larval population in two pH treatments (pHT 8.1 and 7.4) and tracked changes in the shell-size distribution and genetic variation through settlement. Additionally, we identified differences in the signatures of selection on shell growth in each pH environment. Both phenotypic and genetic data show that standing variation can facilitate adaptation to declines in seawater pH. This work provides insight into the processes underpinning rapid evolution, and demonstrates the importance of maintaining variation within natural populations to bolster species' adaptive capacity as global change progresses.