Broad-scale acoustic monitoring of koala populations suggests metapopulation stability, but varying bellow rate, in the face of major disturbances and climate extremes.

Population trends are lacking for most threatened species, especially those that are cryptic and difficult to survey. Recent developments in passive acoustics and semi-automated call recognition provide a cost-effective option to systematically monitor populations of vocal species. We assessed recent trends for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus, an iconic marsupial, based on 7 years of acoustic monitoring across 224 forested sites. The study period overlapped with a severe drought and extensive megafires in 2019 followed by 2 years of extremely high rainfall. Dynamic occupancy modelling with a range of covariates at multiple landscape scales found that initial occupancy was related to elevation (-ve), NDVI (+ve) and previous selective harvesting (16-30-year age class; weakly +ve). Extinction probability increased with the extent of high-severity fire. Colonisation probability was related to a range of factors, with the top model showing a decrease with increasing lagged annual rainfall. However, the null model was also supported, suggesting weak associations for colonisation. Using these relationships, koala occupancy was found to be high and stable over the study period. Fire did not influence regional trends because koalas often persisted with low- to moderate-severity fire and because high-severity fire was limited to 11% of their habitat. In contrast, bellow rate varied across years, being initially low and declining immediately after the 2019 fires, with the driver of these changes unclear. Neither timber harvesting nor low-severity fire influenced koala occupancy or bellow rate. Given the extensive area of koala habitat in the region, our results point to the presence of a large population in these public forests, and in recent years, stable occupancy (albeit with site-scale reductions in density with high-severity fire). Ongoing monitoring is crucial for tracking future changes, especially with predictions of more frequent, severe forest fires due to climate change.

Estimating density of forest bats and their long-term trends in a climate refuge.

For many species, estimating density is challenging, but it is important for conservation planning and understanding the functional role of species. Bats play key ecological roles, yet little is known about their free-ranging density. We used a long-term banding study of four species caught in an extensively forested climate refuge and spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to estimate density and its change over time. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3671 captures of four bat species, which were all edge-space foragers. Recaptures represented 16% (n = 587) of all captures, of which 89 were between-trap-cluster movements. Closed spatial mark-recapture models estimated plausible densities that varied with elevation. Preferred elevations differed between species, with density averaging 0.63 ha-1 for Vespadelus darlingtoni (high elevation), 0.43 ha-1 for V. pumilus (low elevation), 0.19 ha-1 for Chalinolobus morio (high elevation), and 0.08 ha-1 for V. regulus (high elevation). Overall, densities were higher than most previous published estimates for bats. Forest disturbance history (past timber harvesting) had no detectable effect on density. Density also varied substantially across years, and although annual maximum temperature and rainfall were not supported in models, some time periods showed an apparent relationship between density and annual rainfall (+ve) and/or annual maximum temperature (-ve). The most notable change was an increase in the density of V. pumilus after 2013, which tracked an increase in annual temperature at the site, reflecting a warming climate. Bat densities in forests outside of climate refugia are likely to be more sensitive to climate change, but more studies are needed in different habitats and continents and outside climate refugia to place the densities we estimated into a broader context.

Regulated timber harvesting does not reduce koala density in north-east forests of New South Wales.

The compatibility of forestry and koala conservation is a controversial issue. We used a BACIPS design to assess change in koala density after selective harvesting with regulations to protect environmental values. We also assessed additional sites heavily harvested 5-10 years previously, now dominated by young regeneration. We used replicate arrays of acoustic sensors and spatial count modelling of male bellowing to estimate male koala density over 3600 ha. Paired sites in nearby National Parks served as controls. Naïve occupancy was close to 100% before and after harvesting, indicating koalas were widespread across all arrays. Average density was higher than expected for forests in NSW, varying between arrays from 0.03-0.08 males ha-1. There was no significant effect of selective harvesting on density and little change evident between years. Density 5-10 years after previous heavy harvesting was equivalent to controls, with one harvested array supporting the second highest density in the study. Within arrays, density was similar between areas mapped as selectively harvested or excluded from harvest. Density was also high in young regeneration 5-10 years after heavy harvesting. We conclude that native forestry regulations provided sufficient habitat for koalas to maintain their density, both immediately after selective harvesting and 5-10 years after heavy harvesting.

Passive acoustics and sound recognition provide new insights on status and resilience of an iconic endangered marsupial (koala Phascolarctos cinereus) to timber harvesting.

Retention forestry aims to mitigate impacts of native forestry on biodiversity, but data are limited on its effectiveness for threatened species. We used acoustics to investigate the resilience of a folivorous marsupial, the koala Phascolarctos cinereus, to timber harvesting where a key mitigation practice is landscape exclusion of harvesting. We deployed acoustic recorders at 171 sites to record male bellows (~14,640 hours) for use in occupancy modelling and for comparisons of bellow rate (bellows night-1). Surveys targeted modelled medium-high quality habitat, with sites stratified by time since logging and logging intensity, including old growth as a reference. After scanning recordings with software to identify koala bellows, we found a high probability of detection (~0.45 per night), but this varied with minimum temperature and recorder type. Naïve occupancy was ~ 64% across a broad range of forests, which was at least five times more than expected based on previous surveys using alternative methods. After accounting for imperfect detection, probability of occupancy was influenced by elevation (-ve), cover of important browse trees (+ve), landscape NDVI (+ve) and extent of recent wildfire (-ve, but minor effect). Elevation was the most influential variable, though the relationship was non-linear and low occupancy was most common at tableland elevations (> 1000 m). Neither occupancy nor bellow rate were influenced by timber harvesting intensity, time since harvesting or local landscape extent of harvesting or old growth. Extrapolation of occupancy across modelled habitat indicates that the hinterland forests of north-east NSW support a widespread, though likely low density koala population that is considerably larger than previously estimated. Retention forestry has a significant role to play in mitigating harvesting impacts on biodiversity, including for forest specialists, but localised studies are needed to optimise prescriptions for koalas.

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study.

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional-scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently-collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2-km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500-m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground-truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows (n = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground-truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground-truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site-based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field-validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation-dependent species.