On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

Magnitude and frequency variations of vector-borne infection outbreaks using the Ross-Macdonald model: explaining and predicting outbreaks of dengue fever.

The classical Ross-Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections; however, this model fails on several fronts. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, which values are accepted from the literature, the model predicts a much greater number of cases than what is usually observed. Second, the model predicts a single large outbreak that is followed by decades of much smaller outbreaks, which is not consistent with what is observed. Usually towns or cities report a number of recurrences for many years, even when environmental changes cannot explain the disappearance of the infection between the peaks. In this paper, we continue to examine the pitfalls in modelling this class of infections, and explain that, if properly used, the Ross-Macdonald model works and can be used to understand the patterns of epidemics and even, to some extent, be used to make predictions. We model several outbreaks of dengue fever and show that the variable pattern of yearly recurrence (or its absence) can be understood and explained by a simple Ross-Macdonald model modified to take into account human movement across a range of neighbourhoods within a city. In addition, we analyse the effect of seasonal variations in the parameters that determine the number, longevity and biting behaviour of mosquitoes. Based on the size of the first outbreak, we show that it is possible to estimate the proportion of the remaining susceptible individuals and to predict the likelihood and magnitude of the eventual subsequent outbreaks. This approach is described based on actual dengue outbreaks with different recurrence patterns from some Brazilian regions.

Interpretations and pitfalls in modelling vector-transmitted infections.

In this paper we propose a debate on the role of mathematical models in evaluating control strategies for vector-borne infections. Mathematical models must have their complexity adjusted to their goals, and we have basically two classes of models. At one extreme we have models that are intended to check if our intuition about why a certain phenomenon occurs is correct. At the other extreme, we have models whose goals are to predict future outcomes. These models are necessarily very complex. There are models in between these classes. Here we examine two models, one of each class and study the possible pitfalls that may be incurred. We begin by showing how to simplify the description of a complicated model for a vector-borne infection. Next, we examine one example found in a recent paper that illustrates the dangers of basing control strategies on models without considering their limitations. The model in this paper is of the second class. Following this, we review an interesting paper (a model of the first class) that contains some biological assumptions that are inappropriate for dengue but may apply to other vector-borne infections. In conclusion, we list some misgivings about modelling presented in this paper for debate.

Will people change their vector-control practices in the presence of an imperfect dengue vaccine?

Human behaviours, which are influenced by social, cultural, economic and political factors, can increase or decrease the risk of dengue infection, depending on the relationship with the insect vector. Because no vaccine is currently available, the spread of dengue can only be curtailed by controlling vector populations (Aedes aegypti and others) and by protecting individuals. This study tested the hypothesis that dengue-affected populations are likely to relax their vector-control habits if a potentially protective vaccine becomes available. The hypothesis was tested using two approaches: a mathematical model designed to describe dengue transmission and an empirical field test in which the local population of an endemic area was interviewed about their vector-control habits given the presence of a theoretical vaccine. The model demonstrated that depending on the level of vector-control reduction, there is a threshold in vaccine efficacy below which it is better not to introduce the vaccine. The interview showed that people who were informed that a very effective vaccine is available would reduce their vector-control habits significantly compared to a group that was informed that the vaccine is not very effective.

Impact of coagulation in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with spinal cord injury.

STUDY DESIGN: Although the knowledge described about risk factors and venous thromboembolism (VT) in the general population, the impact of these factors in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with spinal injury (SI) caused by spinal cord injury (SCI) is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the impact of risk factors in the development of thromboembolic events in patients with SCI. SETTING: Brazil, São Paulo. METHODS: Observational, prospective and cross-study. Eligible patients (n=100) had SI by SCI, >18 years. The degree of motor and sensory lesion was evaluated based on American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale (AIS). Blood samples were collected for coagulation exams, hemogram, laboratory and biochemical analyses. Ultrasonography analyzes were performed from deep and superficial venous systems of lower limbs. Quantitative real-time PCR experiments were performed in order to investigate mutations in the prothrombin (G20210A) and Leiden factor V (G1691A) genes. RESULTS: The main finding of this study was the higher occurrence of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in patients with Leiden factor V and hyperhomocysteinemia. There was no association between SI for DVT, VT and thrombophilia. Also, there was no relation between lupus anticoagulant and anti-cardiolipin. CONCLUSION: There is an important difference in the incidence of DVT in patients with SI by acute and chronic SCI. Therefore, the conduct of the investigation for thrombophilia should be based on clinical factors, risk factors for DVT and family history of thrombosis.

The value of admission Troponin I to predict outcomes in suspected infections in elderly patients admitted in Internal Medicine: results from the SOFA-T collaboration, a multi-center study.

Elderly patients affected by suspected infection and declining clinical conditions can be admitted to stepdown units (SDU), but a risk stratification is necessary to optimize their management. Admission troponin I (aTnI) has a prognostic role, however, one of the most commonly used stratification tools, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (SOFA), does not consider myocardial injury. With this paper, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of a new score, named SOFA-T, considering both SOFA score and aTnI in a cohort of elderly patients admitted to the stepdown beds of two Internal Medicine departments. Patients aged > 65 years admitted in SDU of two different hospitals of the same region in a 12-months timeframe were retrospectively assessed obtaining age, sex, days of admission, in-hospital death, SOFA, aTnI and comorbidities. The best aTnI cutoff for in-hospital death was calculated with ROC curve analysis; dichotomous variables were compared with chi-squared test; continuous variables were compared with t test or Mann-Whitney test. We obtained a cohort of 390 patients. The best aTnI cutoff was 0.31 ng/ml: patients with increased aTnI had higher risk of in-hospital death (OR: 1.834; 95% CI 1.160-2.900; p = 0.009), and higher SOFA (6.81 ± 2.71 versus 5.97 ± 3.10; p = 0.010). Adding aTnI to SOFA increased significantly the area under the curve (AUCSOFA = 0.68; 95% CI 0.64-0.73; AUCSOFA-T = 0.71; 95% CI 0.65-0.76; p = 0.0001), with a slight improvement of the prognostic performance. In elderly patients admitted to SDU for suspected infection, sepsis or septic shock, aTnI slightly improves the accuracy of SOFA score of the in-hospital death prediction.

Estimation of R0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection.

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0)>1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

A hypothesis for the 2007 dengue outbreak in Singapore.

A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model's simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model's simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

The impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence.

A theoretical framework is proposed on which some hypotheses related to the impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence can be tested. For this, a linear increase of risk behaviour with vaccine efficacy is assumed. This is based on the hypothesis that people are prone to relax preventive measures by knowing that they and their partners are vaccinated and that this effect is more intense the more effective the vaccine is known to be. An additional, and perhaps more important hypothesis is related to the theoretical possibility that increased risk behaviour of some vaccinated individuals in partially protected populations could act as a selective pressure toward more virulent HIV strains. Those hypotheses were tested by a mathematical model that considers three different HIV strains competing against each other in a population partially protected by imperfect vaccines of distinct efficacies. Simulations of the model demonstrated that, under the above hypotheses, there is a shift in HIV virulence towards more aggressive strains with increase in vaccine efficacy, associated with a marked reduction in the total amount of transmission and, consequently, in the prevalence of HIV. Potential ways for further testing the theory/model and the implications of the results are discussed.

Prognostic value of high dose dipyridamole echocardiography in patients with chronic coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function.

OBJECTIVES: The prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography was assessed in patients with chronic coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function. BACKGROUND: Few data are available on the prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography in patients with a low risk of cardiac events. METHODS: Two hundred sixty-eight consecutive patients with stable, proven or suspected coronary artery disease and ejection fraction > or = 0.40 underwent high dose (up to 0.84 mg/kg body weight) dipyridamole echocardiography. In 204 patients definite exercise electrocardiographic (ECG) results were also available. RESULTS: During a mean (+/- SD) follow-up period of 16 +/- 8 months (range 6 to 36), 33 spontaneous events occurred: 15 "hard" events (cardiac death [n = 6], myocardial infarction [n = 9]) and 18 "soft" events (unstable angina). Events occurred more frequently in patients with positive findings on dipyridamole echocardiography (59% vs. 3%, p < 0.001; hard events 24% vs. 2%, p < 0.01). A positive response at the low dose (up to 0.56 mg/kg) identified patients with a high incidence of hard events (7 of 16 patients, sensitivity 50%, specificity 96%). In patients with an exercise ECG, a comparable sensitivity for cardiac events was found (89% vs. 93%, p = NS), but dipyridamole echocardiography was more specific (91% vs. 61%, p < 0.01). A positive response on the low work load exercise ECG (< 8 min) and a positive response to low dose dipyridamole echocardiography had similar accuracy (82% vs. 90%, p = NS). Cox analysis identified dipyridamole echocardiography as the best predictor of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 20.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.8 to 37.9); the highest risk of hard events was found in patients with a positive response to low dose dipyridamole echocardiography (OR 25.4, 95% CI 12.2 to 54.1). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic coronary artery disease and a low incidence of cardiac events, dipyridamole echocardiography was effective in prognostic stratification, and positive low work load exercise ECG results were a reliable predictor of subsequent events. Consequently, dipyridamole echocardiography should be considered a complementary tool in the presence of high work load positivity or ambiguous exercise ECG results.

Fuzzy logic and measles vaccination: designing a control strategy.

BACKGROUND: The State of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, was virtually free of measles from 1987 until the end of 1996 when the number of cases started to rise. It reached alarming numbers in the middle of 1997 and local health authorities decided to implement a mass vaccination campaign. METHODS: Fuzzy Decision Making techniques are applied to the design of the vaccination campaign. RESULTS: The mass vaccination strategy chosen changed the natural course of the epidemic. It had a significant impact on the epidemic in the metropolitan area of São Paulo city, but a second epidemic in the State's interior forced the public health authorities to implement a second mass vaccination campaign 2 months after the first. CONCLUSIONS: Fuzzy Logic techniques are a powerful tool for the design of control strategies against epidemics of infectious diseases.

Assessing the efficacy of a mixed vaccination strategy against rubella in São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In 1992 a major vaccination strategy against measles-mumps-rubella was introduced in the State of Saão Paulo, Brazil. This strategy was based on mathematical models and comprised a pulse vaccination covering all children aged 1-10 years, followed by the inclusion of this vaccine in the routine calendar at 15 months of age. The present work reports the evaluation of the efficacy of this mixed vaccination strategy. METHODS: A rubella seroprevalence survey was carried out immediately and one year after the campaign, comprising 4953 children aged 1-15 years. RESULTS: We show that average rubella seroprevalence increased from 0.40 to 0.97 and that the reported number of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) cases dropped dramatically. CONCLUSIONS: The mixed vaccination strategy adopted against rubella has proved to be very effective in reducing the number of CRS cases in São Paulo.

Epidemiologic typing of multiply drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from an outbreak in an intensive care unit.

From June to August 1991, there was an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in an intensive care unit in a general hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We obtained 14 isolates from 14 patients, 11 from tracheal aspirate, and 3 from surgical wound exudates. These strains were typed by serotyping, pyocin typing, and pulsed-field electrophoresis (CHEF) of chromosomal DNA (chrDNA), and the different typing methods were analyzed. These three methods demonstrated seven identical strains. We also performed an extensive antibiogram (33 drugs) in all 14 isolates. The incidence of resistance to aminoglycosides, extended-spectrum beta-lactams, and quinolones was very high among the seven identical isolates; however, the antibiogram profile differed significantly among the isolates. Our results suggest that a unique strain caused several cross-transmitted infections during this period of time, and the emergence of antimicrobial resistance has been occurring before and after the establishment of the epidemic strain by selective drug use. The chrDNA fingerprinting proved to be versatile and precise for epidemiologic investigations of P. aeruginosa infections.

Azole resistance among oral Candida species isolates from AIDS patients under ketoconazole exposure.

This is a prospective study designed to investigate species distribution and azole susceptibility profile among Candida spp. isolated from the oral cavities of AIDS patients. One hundred thirty-two AIDS patients sequentially admitted at a teaching tertiary care hospital were enrolled in this study. Samples were obtained by swabbing the oral cavities of the patients. Yeast isolates were identified by classical methods and the antifungal susceptibility profile was further determined according to the NCCLS microbroth assay. Among all patients with prescriptions of systemic antifungal drugs, ketoconazole had been elected to treat 56% of patients. We found 82% of oral yeast carriage, 22% of them harboring non-albicans species. Overall rates of susceptibility dose dependent/resistance to azoles was 16% for itraconazole, 13% for ketoconazole, and 10% for fluconazole with a high agreement rate among the susceptibility profiles of all isolates tested against the triazoles.

The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-infested area.

Yellow fever and dengue are viral infections that in urban centres are transmitted by the same arthropod vector, a mosquito of the genus Aedes. In order to estimate the risk of an epidemic of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area we calculated the threshold in the basic reproduction number, R0, of dengue, above which any single sylvatic yellow fever-infected individual will trigger an urban yellow fever epidemic. Specifically, we analysed the relationship between the extrinsic incubation period and the duration of viraemia, from which it is possible to define the R0 for dengue that would also suggest an outbreak potential for yellow fever. We also calculated the critical proportion of people to vaccinate against yellow fever in order to prevent an epidemic in a dengue-endemic area. The theory proposed is illustrated by the case of São Paulo State in southern Brazil, where dengue is endemic and the risk of urban yellow fever is already imminent.

Relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping and genital neoplasia in HIV-positive patients of Santos City, São Paulo, Brazil.

Among HIV-positive women, infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types is known to be more frequent and persistent, as well as a greater prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. This study aims to characterize, for the first time in Brazil, HPV presence and types among HIV-positive women of a high-risk population for genital intraepithelial neoplasia (GIN) development. A non-anonymous, voluntary, cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted, from June 1996 to April 1997, among 141 HIV-positive women followed at the Center of Reference in AIDS (CRAIDS). They were submitted to gynaecological examination, cytological screening and biopsies whenever necessary, for GIN and HPV DNA detection through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. Positive HPV DNA were found in 80.8% patients. Two or more HPV types were detected in 45% of the samples. The most frequent HPV types detected were 16, 18 (30.5%); 61, 53 (24.4%), and non-identified types (18.7%). According to the oncogenic potential, 34.8% were considered of high-risk types. Among these HIV-positive patients, a great variety of HPV types, including high-risk types, was found in anogenital environment, as well as among young women, a great prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. Thus, it should strengthen the need for a periodical careful gynaecological examination among those women.

HIV infection and related risk behaviours in a disadvantaged youth institution of São Paulo, Brazil.

In order to study the prevalence of HIV and related risky behaviours among disadvantaged youth, we interviewed and bled, between December 1994 and April 1995, 1122 young males and 93 young females who were serving time in FEBEM, a state institution that cares for homeless and offender youth of São Paulo, Brazil. Our questionnaire covered the following areas: sexual practices and use of illicit drugs; knowledge of HIV and STDs and their prevention; and myths and beliefs about AIDS. Seroprevalence of HIV was assessed and related with risk-taking behaviours by means of uni-, bi- and multivariate analysis. We found 2.6% of the males and 10.3% of the females to be positive to HIV. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies resulted in 5.9% for males and 4.6% for females, respectively. The risk for parenterally transmitted HIV among the males was higher than that for sexually related transmission. The inverse relationship was found among the females.

Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns.

In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination program in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in a steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland, and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.