Reproductive factors and mammographic density within the International Consortium of Mammographic Density: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated mammographic density (MD) for a woman's age and body mass index (BMI) is an established breast cancer risk factor. The relationship of parity, age at first birth, and breastfeeding with MD is less clear. We examined the associations of these factors with MD within the International Consortium of Mammographic Density (ICMD). METHODS: ICMD is a consortium of 27 studies with pooled individual-level epidemiological and MD data from 11,755 women without breast cancer aged 35-85 years from 22 countries, capturing 40 country-& ethnicity-specific population groups. MD was measured using the area-based tool Cumulus. Meta-analyses across population groups and pooled analyses were used to examine linear regression associations of square-root (√) transformed MD measures (percent MD (PMD), dense area (DA), and non-dense area (NDA)) with parity, age at first birth, ever/never breastfed and lifetime breastfeeding duration. Models were adjusted for age at mammogram, age at menarche, BMI, menopausal status, use of hormone replacement therapy, calibration method, mammogram view and reader, and parity and age at first birth when not the association of interest. RESULTS: Among 10,988 women included in these analyses, 90.1% (n = 9,895) were parous, of whom 13% (n = 1,286) had ≥ five births. The mean age at first birth was 24.3 years (Standard deviation = 5.1). Increasing parity (per birth) was inversely associated with √PMD (ß: - 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): - 0.07, - 0.03) and √DA (ß: - 0.08, 95% CI: - 0.12, - 0.05) with this trend evident until at least nine births. Women who were older at first birth (per five-year increase) had higher √PMD (ß:0.06, 95% CI:0.03, 0.10) and √DA (ß:0.06, 95% CI:0.02, 0.10), and lower √NDA (ß: - 0.06, 95% CI: - 0.11, - 0.01). In stratified analyses, this association was only evident in women who were post-menopausal at MD assessment. Among parous women, no associations were found between ever/never breastfed or lifetime breastfeeding duration (per six-month increase) and √MD. CONCLUSIONS: Associations with higher parity and older age at first birth with √MD were consistent with the direction of their respective associations with breast cancer risk. Further research is needed to understand reproductive factor-related differences in the composition of breast tissue and their associations with breast cancer risk.

Routes to diagnosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients: predictors and associations with treatment and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has increased rapidly, and prognosis remains poor. We aimed to explore predictors of routes to diagnosis (RtD), and outcomes, in HCC cases. METHODS: HCC cases diagnosed 2006-2017 were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the RtD metric. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between RtD, diagnosis year, 365-day mortality and receipt of potentially curative treatment. RESULTS: 23,555 HCC cases were identified; 36.1% via emergency presentation (EP), 30.2% GP referral (GP), 17.1% outpatient referral, 11.0% two-week wait and 4.6% other/unknown routes. Odds of 365-day mortality was >70% lower via GP or OP routes than EP, and odds of curative treatment 3-4 times higher. Further adjustment for cancer/cirrhosis stage attenuated the associations with curative treatment. People who were older, female, had alcohol-related liver disease, or were more deprived, were at increased risk of an EP. Over time, diagnoses via EP decreased, and via GP increased. CONCLUSIONS: HCC RtD is an important predictor of outcomes. Continuing to reduce EP and increase GP and OP presentations, for example by identifying and regularly monitoring patients at higher risk of HCC, may improve stage at diagnosis and survival.

Prevalence, factors and quality of life associated with frailty and pre-frailty in middle-aged and older adults living with HIV in Zimbabwe: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated associations between HIV, frailty and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: This cross-sectional study recruited men and women aged ≥40 years in Zimbabwe. A researcher collected clinical and HRQoL data, and performed physical assessments and HIV testing. Frailty was defined using five criteria: unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, low gait speed, low handgrip strength. The presence of three or more criteria defined frailty, one to two pre-frailty, and zero non-frail. Data analysis used adjusted regression modelling. RESULTS: Of 1034 adults (mean ± SD, 62.0 ± 14.0 years), 21.6% (n = 223) were living with HIV: 93.3% knew their status, of whom 96.2% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 89.7% of these had a viral load <50 copies/mL. Mean age at HIV diagnosis was 44.6 ± 10.4 years (only 8.1% were ≥70 years), people had been living with HIV for 9.8 ± 5.0 years and had been on ART for 9.4 ± 5.2 years. Overall, HIV was not associated with frailty: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-2.33] for frailty versus non-frailty. However, each 5 years lived with HIV was associated with twice the odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.03-4.13), independent of age and ART duration. Furthermore, each 5 years of ART use was associated with 60% lower odds of frailty/pre-frailty (aOR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.19-0.78), independent of age and years lived with HIV. Older age, minimal education and poverty were associated with frailty. Frailty was associated with lower HRQoL in people both with and without HIV. CONCLUSION: Reduced survival and good viral suppression may explain the lack of association between HIV and frailty. Early ART initiation could reduce future risk of frailty.

The association of age at menarche and adult height with mammographic density in the International Consortium of Mammographic Density.

BACKGROUND: Early age at menarche and tall stature are associated with increased breast cancer risk. We examined whether these associations were also positively associated with mammographic density, a strong marker of breast cancer risk. METHODS: Participants were 10,681 breast-cancer-free women from 22 countries in the International Consortium of Mammographic Density, each with centrally assessed mammographic density and a common set of epidemiologic data. Study periods for the 27 studies ranged from 1987 to 2014. Multi-level linear regression models estimated changes in square-root per cent density (√PD) and dense area (√DA) associated with age at menarche and adult height in pooled analyses and population-specific meta-analyses. Models were adjusted for age at mammogram, body mass index, menopausal status, hormone therapy use, mammography view and type, mammographic density assessor, parity and height/age at menarche. RESULTS: In pooled analyses, later age at menarche was associated with higher per cent density (ß√PD = 0.023 SE = 0.008, P = 0.003) and larger dense area (ß√DA = 0.032 SE = 0.010, P = 0.002). Taller women had larger dense area (ß√DA = 0.069 SE = 0.028, P = 0.012) and higher per cent density (ß√PD = 0.044, SE = 0.023, P = 0.054), although the observed effect on per cent density depended upon the adjustment used for body size. Similar overall effect estimates were observed in meta-analyses across population groups. CONCLUSIONS: In one of the largest international studies to date, later age at menarche was positively associated with mammographic density. This is in contrast to its association with breast cancer risk, providing little evidence of mediation. Increased height was also positively associated with mammographic density, particularly dense area. These results suggest a complex relationship between growth and development, mammographic density and breast cancer risk. Future studies should evaluate the potential mediation of the breast cancer effects of taller stature through absolute breast density.

Correlation between cumulative mammographic density and age-specific incidence of breast cancer: A biethnic study in Israel.

Women with the most extensive breast density, have a 4- to 6-fold higher cancer risk than women with the lowest density. This cross-sectional study evaluated associations of cumulative mammographic density in two distinct ethnic groups with the respective age-specific breast cancer incidences in the population. The study compared four cohorts of 200 women each aged 35 to 49 and 50 to 74, representing Jewish and Arab ethnicity. Breast density measures were calculated from screening mammograms, using a thresholding software (Cumulus). Breast cancer specific incidence values were obtained from the National Cancer Registry. The percent mammographic density was lower for women aged 50 to 74 than 35 to 49 years, both for Jews: 11.7 vs 23.1 and for Arabs: 11.6 vs 18.3. In contrast, the cumulative density increased with age, from 37.30 to 181.24 in Jews, compared to 21.26 to 108.03 in Arabs. Similar trends in breast cancer incidence rates per 100 000 in the Israeli population were apparent, with an increase from 92.95 to 381.91 in Jews, compared to 48.6 to 244.44 in Arabs. Comparing cumulative density of the cohort with respective age-specific breast cancer incidence in the population yielded a highly significant correlation: Jews; r = .97, P < .0001 and Arabs: r = .86, P = .007. A strong association was found between the log of cumulative density and the log of cancer incidence, as well. Our study identified correlations between cumulative mammographic density and breast cancer incidence in two distinct populations. The findings should prompt research to enhance our understanding of the pathogenesis of breast cancer, and lead to novel insights into measures of prevention.

Regional variations in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, routes to diagnosis, treatment and survival in England.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence, management and survival across England were examined to determine if geographical inequalities exist. METHOD: 15,468 HCC cases diagnosed 2010-2016 were included. Age-standardised incidence rates, net survival and proportions receiving potentially curative treatment and presenting through each route to diagnosis adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex and area-based deprivation quintile, were calculated overall and by Cancer Alliance. RESULTS: HCC incidence rates increased in men from 6.2 per 100,000 in 2010 to 8.8 in 2016, and in women from 1.5 to 2.2. The highest incidence rates, found in parts of the North of England and London, were nearly double the lowest. The adjusted proportion presenting as an emergency ranged 27-41% across Cancer Alliances. Odds increased with increasing deprivation quintile and age. Only one in five patients received potentially curative treatment (range 15-28%) and odds decreased with increasing deprivation and age. One-year survival in 2013-2016 ranged 38-53%. CONCLUSION: This population-based, nationwide analysis demonstrates clear differences in HCC incidence, management and survival across England. It highlights socioeconomic-associated variation and the need for improvement in early diagnosis and curative treatment of HCC. This research should assist policymakers, service providers and clinicians to identify regions where additional training, services and resources would be best directed.

Incidence and number of fragility fractures of the hip in South Africa: estimated projections from 2020 to 2050.

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing rapid population ageing and better understanding of the burden of musculoskeletal conditions is needed. We have estimated a large increase in the burden of hip fractures for South Africa over the coming decades. These findings should support preparation of hip fracture services to meet this demand. INTRODUCTION: A better understanding of the burden of fragility fractures in sub-Saharan Africa is needed to inform healthcare planning. We aimed to use recent hip fracture incidence data from South Africa (SA) to estimate the future burden of hip fracture for the country over the next three decades. METHODS: Hip fracture incidence data within the Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces of SA were obtained from patients aged ≥ 40 years with a radiograph-confirmed hip fracture in one of 94 included hospitals. Age-, sex- and ethnicity-specific incidence rates were generated using the 2011 SA census population for the study areas. Incidence rates were standardised to United Nations (UN) population projections, for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, and absolute numbers of hip fractures derived. RESULTS: The 2767 hip fracture patients studied had mean (SD) age 73.7 (12.7) years; 69% were female. Estimated age- and ethnicity-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) for the overall SA population in 2020 were 81.2 for females and 43.1 for males. Overall projected incidence rates were discernibly higher by the year 2040 and increased further by the year 2050 (109.0 and 54.1 for females and males, respectively). Estimates of the overall annual number of hip fractures for SA increased from approximately 11,000 in 2020 to approximately 26,400 by 2050. CONCLUSION: The hip fracture burden for SA is expected to more than double over the next 30 years. Significant investment in fracture prevention services and inpatient fracture care is likely to be needed to meet this demand.

Gathering momentum for the way ahead: fifth report of the Lancet Standing Commission on Liver Disease in the UK.

This report presents further evidence on the escalating alcohol consumption in the UK and the burden of liver disease associated with this major risk factor, as well as the effects on hospital and primary care. We reiterate the need for fiscal regulation by the UK Government if overall alcohol consumption is to be reduced sufficiently to improve health outcomes. We also draw attention to the effects of drastic cuts in public services for alcohol treatment, the repeated failures of voluntary agreements with the drinks industry, and the influence of the industry through its lobbying activities. We continue to press for reintroduction of the alcohol duty escalator, which was highly effective during the 5 years it was in place, and the introduction of minimum unit pricing in England, targeted at the heaviest drinkers. Results from the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, with results from Wales to follow, are likely to seriously expose the weakness of England's position. The increasing prevalence of obesity-related liver disease, the rising number of people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and its complications, and increasing number of cases of end-stage liver disease and primary liver cancers from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease make apparent the need for an obesity strategy for adults. We also discuss the important effects of obesity and alcohol on disease progression, and the increased risk of the ten most common cancers (including breast and colon cancers). A new in-depth analysis of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and total societal costs shows the extraordinarily large expenditures that could be saved or redeployed elsewhere in the NHS. Excellent results have been reported for new antiviral drugs for hepatitis C virus infection, making elimination of chronic infection a real possibility ahead of the WHO 2030 target. However, the extent of unidentified cases remains a problem, and will also apply when new curative drugs for hepatitis B virus become available. We also describe efforts to improve standards of hospital care for liver disease with better understanding of current service deficiencies and a new accreditation process for hospitals providing liver services. New commissioning arrangements for primary and community care represent progress, in terms of effective screening of high-risk subjects and the early detection of liver disease.

Mammographic density and ageing: A collaborative pooled analysis of cross-sectional data from 22 countries worldwide.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) is one of the strongest breast cancer risk factors. Its age-related characteristics have been studied in women in western countries, but whether these associations apply to women worldwide is not known. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined cross-sectional differences in MD by age and menopausal status in over 11,000 breast-cancer-free women aged 35-85 years, from 40 ethnicity- and location-specific population groups across 22 countries in the International Consortium on Mammographic Density (ICMD). MD was read centrally using a quantitative method (Cumulus) and its square-root metrics were analysed using meta-analysis of group-level estimates and linear regression models of pooled data, adjusted for body mass index, reproductive factors, mammogram view, image type, and reader. In all, 4,534 women were premenopausal, and 6,481 postmenopausal, at the time of mammography. A large age-adjusted difference in percent MD (PD) between post- and premenopausal women was apparent (-0.46 cm [95% CI: -0.53, -0.39]) and appeared greater in women with lower breast cancer risk profiles; variation across population groups due to heterogeneity (I2) was 16.5%. Among premenopausal women, the √PD difference per 10-year increase in age was -0.24 cm (95% CI: -0.34, -0.14; I2 = 30%), reflecting a compositional change (lower dense area and higher non-dense area, with no difference in breast area). In postmenopausal women, the corresponding difference in √PD (-0.38 cm [95% CI: -0.44, -0.33]; I2 = 30%) was additionally driven by increasing breast area. The study is limited by different mammography systems and its cross-sectional rather than longitudinal nature. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in MD with increasing age are present premenopausally, continue postmenopausally, and are most pronounced over the menopausal transition. These effects were highly consistent across diverse groups of women worldwide, suggesting that they result from an intrinsic biological, likely hormonal, mechanism common to women. If cumulative breast density is a key determinant of breast cancer risk, younger ages may be the more critical periods for lifestyle modifications aimed at breast density and breast cancer risk reduction.

Mammographic density assessed on paired raw and processed digital images and on paired screen-film and digital images across three mammography systems.

BACKGROUND: Inter-women and intra-women comparisons of mammographic density (MD) are needed in research, clinical and screening applications; however, MD measurements are influenced by mammography modality (screen film/digital) and digital image format (raw/processed). We aimed to examine differences in MD assessed on these image types. METHODS: We obtained 1294 pairs of images saved in both raw and processed formats from Hologic and General Electric (GE) direct digital systems and a Fuji computed radiography (CR) system, and 128 screen-film and processed CR-digital pairs from consecutive screening rounds. Four readers performed Cumulus-based MD measurements (n = 3441), with each image pair read by the same reader. Multi-level models of square-root percent MD were fitted, with a random intercept for woman, to estimate processed-raw MD differences. RESULTS: Breast area did not differ in processed images compared with that in raw images, but the percent MD was higher, due to a larger dense area (median 28.5 and 25.4 cm2 respectively, mean √dense area difference 0.44 cm (95% CI: 0.36, 0.52)). This difference in √dense area was significant for direct digital systems (Hologic 0.50 cm (95% CI: 0.39, 0.61), GE 0.56 cm (95% CI: 0.42, 0.69)) but not for Fuji CR (0.06 cm (95% CI: -0.10, 0.23)). Additionally, within each system, reader-specific differences varied in magnitude and direction (p < 0.001). Conversion equations revealed differences converged to zero with increasing dense area. MD differences between screen-film and processed digital on the subsequent screening round were consistent with expected time-related MD declines. CONCLUSIONS: MD was slightly higher when measured on processed than on raw direct digital mammograms. Comparisons of MD on these image formats should ideally control for this non-constant and reader-specific difference.

Associations of adiponectin and leptin with stage and grade of PSA-detected prostate cancer: the ProtecT study.

PURPOSE: Obesity has been associated with an increased risk of advanced and fatal prostate cancer; adipokines may mediate this association. We examined associations of the adipokines leptin and adiponectin with the stage and grade of PSA-detected prostate cancer. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study comparing 311 men with mainly locally advanced (≥T3, N1, or M1 cases) vs. 413 men with localized (T ≤2 & NX-0 & M0 controls) PSA-detected prostate cancer, recruited 2001-2009 from 9 UK regions to the ProtecT study. Associations of body mass index and adipokine levels with prostate cancer stage were determined by conditional logistic regression and with grade (Gleason score ≥7 vs. ≤6) by unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Adiponectin was inversely associated with prostate cancer stage in overweight and obese men (OR 0.62; 95 % CI 0.42-0.90; p = 0.01), but not in normal weight men (OR 1.48; 0.77-2.82; p = 0.24) (p for interaction 0.007), or all men (OR 0.86; 0.66-1.11; p = 0.24). There was no compelling evidence of associations between leptin or leptin to adiponectin ratio and prostate cancer stage. No strong associations of adiponectin, leptin, or leptin:adiponectin ratio with grade were seen. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some evidence that adiponectin levels may be associated with prostate cancer stage, dependent on the degree of adiposity of the man. Our results are consistent with adiponectin countering the adverse effects of obesity on prostate cancer progression.

Cost of hepatocellular carcinoma to the national health service in England: a registry-based analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in the UK trebled between 1997 and 2017. With increasing numbers requiring treatment, understanding the likely impact on healthcare budgets can inform service planning and commissioning. The aim of this analysis was to use existing registry data to describe the direct healthcare costs of current treatments for HCC and estimate the impact on National Health Service (NHS) budgets. DESIGN: A retrospective data analysis based on the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service cancer registry informed a decision-analytic model for England comparing patients by cirrhosis compensation status and those on palliative or curative treatment pathways. Potential cost drivers were investigated by undertaking a series of one-way sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016, 15 684 patients were diagnosed with HCC. The median cost per patient over 2 years was £9065 (IQR: £1965 to £20 491), 66% did not receive active therapy. The cost of HCC treatment for England over 5 years was estimated to be £245 million. CONCLUSION: The National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked data sets have enabled a comprehensive analysis of the resource use and costs of secondary and tertiary healthcare for HCC, providing an overview of the economic impact to the NHS England of treating HCC.

Systematic review: accuracy of anti-citrullinated Peptide antibodies for diagnosing rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis is important to prevent irreversible joint damage. Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA) have been suggested for early diagnosis. PURPOSE: To compare the accuracy of ACPA and rheumatoid factor in diagnosing rheumatoid arthritis in patients with early symptoms of the disease. DATA SOURCES: 10 medical databases from inception to September 2009, with no language or publication restrictions, and references of included studies. STUDY SELECTION: Two independent reviewers screened searches. Full articles were assessed by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer to identify studies that reported 2 x 2 data on ACPA for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (by 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria). DATA EXTRACTION: One reviewer abstracted data on patient characteristics, ACPA details, and 2 x 2 data and assessed study quality by using the QUADAS tool. A second reviewer checked extractions. DATA SYNTHESIS: 151 studies were included, with considerable heterogeneity in sensitivity (range, 12% to 93%) and specificity (range, 63% to 100%). In cohort studies that investigated second-generation anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP2) in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (<2 years), summary sensitivity and specificity were 57% (95% CI, 51% to 63%) and 96% (CI, 93% to 97%), respectively. Case-control and cross-sectional studies and studies of patients with established rheumatoid arthritis all overestimated sensitivity. Anti-CCP2 had greater specificity than rheumatoid factor (96% vs. 86%), with similar sensitivity. Evidence was insufficient to ascertain whether the combination of anti-CCP2 and rheumatoid factor provides additional benefit over anti-CCP2 alone. LIMITATIONS: Most studies used a diagnostic case-control design, which overestimated sensitivity. Items relating to study quality were rarely reported. Publication bias could not be assessed. CONCLUSION: Anti-CCP2 should be included in the work-up of patients with early symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis.

Circulating adiponectin and leptin and risk of overall and aggressive prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of advanced, recurrent and fatal prostate cancer. Adipokines may mediate this relationship. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of associations of leptin and adiponectin with overall and aggressive prostate cancer. Bibliographic databases were systematically searched up to 1st April 2017. Log Odds Ratios (ORs) per 2.5 unit increase in adiponectin or leptin levels were derived and pooled. All analyses were stratified by study type (cross-sectional/prospective). 746 papers were retrieved, 34 eligible studies identified, 31 of these could be included in the meta-analysis. Leptin was not consistently associated with overall prostate cancer (pooled OR 1.00, 95%CI 0.98-1.02, per 2.5 ng/ml increase, prospective study OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.95-0.99, cross-sectional study OR 1.19, 95%CI 1.13-1.26) and there was weak evidence of a positive association with aggressive disease (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.06). There was also weak evidence of a small inverse association of adiponectin with overall prostate cancer (OR 0.96, 95%CI 0.93-0.99, per 2.5 µg/ml increase), but less evidence of an association with aggressive disease (OR 0.98, 95%CI 0.94-1.01). The magnitude of any effects are small, therefore levels of circulating adiponectin or leptin alone are unlikely to be useful biomarkers of risk or prognosis.

Primary liver cancer in the UK: Incidence, incidence-based mortality, and survival by subtype, sex, and nation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of primary liver cancer (PLC) is increasing in Western Europe. To understand trends over time and the current burden in the UK, a detailed analysis of the epidemiology of PLC and its subtypes was conducted. METHODS: Data on PLCs diagnosed during 1997-2017 were obtained from population-based, nationwide registries in the UK. European age-standardised incidence (ASR) and incidence-based mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 person-years were calculated overall and by sex and UK-nation. Annual percentage change in rates was estimated using Joinpoint regression. One-, 2-, and 5-year age-standardised net survival was estimated. RESULTS: A total of 82,024 PLCs were diagnosed. Both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality rates trebled (ASR 1.8-5.5 per 100,000, ASMR 1.3-4.0). The rate of increase appeared to plateau around 2014/2015. Scottish men consistently had the highest HCC incidence rates. PLC survival increased, driven by a substantial increase in the proportion that are HCC (as prognosis is better than other PLCs) and in HCC survival (change in 1-year survival 24-47%). Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma was the most common PLC in women and 1-year survival improved from 22.6% to 30.5%. CONCLUSIONS: PLC incidence has been increasing rapidly but, as most risk factors are modifiable, it is largely a preventable cancer. This rate of increase has slowed in recent years, possibly attributable to effective treatment for hepatitis C. As other risk factors such as obesity and diabetes remain prevalent in the UK, it is unlikely the considerable burden of this disease will abate. While improvements in survival have been made, over half of patients are not alive after 1 year, therefore further progress in prevention, early detection, and treatment innovation are needed. LAY SUMMARY: Many more people are getting liver cancer, particularly the subtype hepatocellular carcinoma, than 20 years ago. Men in Scotland are most likely to get liver cancer and to die from it. Survival after liver cancer diagnosis is getting longer but still less than half are alive after 1 year.

Young adulthood body mass index and risk of cancer in later adulthood: historical cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) in young adulthood and cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: A total of 9,549 men and 2,657 women had weight and height measured while at university (1948-1968). Participants were traced through the National Health Service Central Register, and cancer registration and death certificates were obtained. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of associations between BMI and cancer incidence and mortality. RESULTS: The mean age at university was 20 years. During a median follow-up of 49 years, 2,349 deaths occurred, including 55 breast, 111 prostate, and 131 colorectal cancer. There were 1,305 cancer registrations, including 102 breast, 211 prostate, and 125 colorectal cancers. There was weak evidence of an association between BMI and colorectal cancer incidence (adjusted HR per 1 kg/m(2): 1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.15) and mortality (HR 1.05, 95% CI: 0.98-1.14). There was no evidence of an association between BMI and either breast or prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting a reduction in obesity in young adulthood may prevent a significant number of colorectal cancer deaths, although whether this relationship is direct or through tracking to later adult BMI has yet to be established.

Validation of an algorithm using inpatient electronic health records to determine the presence and severity of cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in England: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by both cancer characteristics and liver disease severity. This study aims to validate the use of inpatient electronic health records to determine liver disease severity from treatment and procedure codes. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Two National Health Service (NHS) cancer centres in England. PARTICIPANTS: 339 patients with a new diagnosis of HCC between 2007 and 2016. MAIN OUTCOME: Using inpatient electronic health records, we have developed an optimised algorithm to identify cirrhosis and determine liver disease severity in a population with HCC. The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm was optimised using clinical records from one NHS Trust and it was externally validated using anonymised data from another centre. RESULTS: The optimised algorithm has a positive predictive value (PPV) of 99% for identifying cirrhosis in the derivation cohort, with a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI 82% to 90%) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%). The sensitivity for detecting advanced stage cirrhosis is 80% (95% CI 75% to 87%) and specificity is 98% (95% CI 96% to 100%), with a PPV of 89%. CONCLUSIONS: Our optimised algorithm, based on inpatient electronic health records, reliably identifies and stages cirrhosis in patients with HCC. This highlights the potential of routine health data in population studies to stratify patients with HCC according to liver disease severity.

International Consortium on Mammographic Density: Methodology and population diversity captured across 22 countries.

Mammographic density (MD) is a quantitative trait, measurable in all women, and is among the strongest markers of breast cancer risk. The population-based epidemiology of MD has revealed genetic, lifestyle and societal/environmental determinants, but studies have largely been conducted in women with similar westernized lifestyles living in countries with high breast cancer incidence rates. To benefit from the heterogeneity in risk factors and their combinations worldwide, we created an International Consortium on Mammographic Density (ICMD) to pool individual-level epidemiological and MD data from general population studies worldwide. ICMD aims to characterize determinants of MD more precisely, and to evaluate whether they are consistent across populations worldwide. We included 11755 women, from 27 studies in 22 countries, on whom individual-level risk factor data were pooled and original mammographic images were re-read for ICMD to obtain standardized comparable MD data. In the present article, we present (i) the rationale for this consortium; (ii) characteristics of the studies and women included; and (iii) study methodology to obtain comparable MD data from original re-read films. We also highlight the risk factor heterogeneity captured by such an effort and, thus, the unique insight the pooled study promises to offer through wider exposure ranges, different confounding structures and enhanced power for sub-group analyses.

Associations of lifestyle factors and anthropometric measures with repeat PSA levels during active surveillance/monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of prostate-specific antigen increase with time (PSA growth) is a fundamental component of active surveillance among men with localized prostate cancer. Factors that influence PSA growth, however, are unclear. We evaluated associations of anthropometric and lifestyle factors with age-related PSA growth. METHODS: Repeat PSA measures from 404 men, aged 50 to 69 years, with localized prostate cancer undergoing active monitoring were obtained. From log(PSA) measures, age-specific multilevel mixed effect linear models were developed to predict PSA at age 50 years and yearly increase in postdiagnosis PSA. Baseline anthropometric measures, alcohol consumption, occupational class, smoking status, and physical activity were added to the model as covariates. RESULTS: The median number of repeat PSAs was 13 (range, 2-40), and the mean duration of follow-up was 4.8 years (SD, 2.3). The basic model of age-related PSA growth in men with localized prostate cancer estimated a mean PSA at age 50 of 3.95 ng/mL [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.55 to 4.39] and a yearly increase of 8.50% (95% CI: 7.90% to 9.10%). PSA at age 50 years was 2.1% lower per unit increase in weighted exercise score (95% CI: -3.3 to -0.8), 5.3% lower per 5 cm increase in height (95% CI: -9.4 to -1.1), and 24.5% higher (95% CI: 4.0 to 49.1) in current smokers than never smokers. Similar associations with PSA growth were seen. CONCLUSION: Smoking and exercise are modifiable lifestyle factors that may be associated with PSA levels in men with localized prostate cancer undergoing active monitoring/surveillance. IMPACT: These factors may be useful in understanding etiology of progression.

Metabolic imbalance and prostate cancer progression.

There is substantial evidence implicating environmental factors in the progression of prostate cancer. The metabolic consequences of a western lifestyle, such as obesity, insulin resistance and abnormal hormone production have been linked to prostate carcinogenesis through multiple overlapping pathways. Insulin resistance results in raised levels of the mitogens insulin and insulin-like growth factor-1, both of which may affect prostate cancer directly, or through their effect on other metabolic regulators. Obesity is associated with abnormal levels of adipocyte-derived peptides (adipokines), sex hormones and inflammatory cytokines. Adipokines have been shown to influence prostate cancer in both cell culture studies and observational, population level studies. Testosterone appears to have a complex relationship with prostate carcinogenesis, and it has been suggested that the lower levels associated with obesity may select for more aggressive androgen independent prostate cancer cells. Prostatic inflammation, caused by infection, urinary reflux or dietary toxins, frequently occurs prior to cancer development and may influence progression to advanced disease. High levels of ω-6 fatty acids in the diet may lead to the production of further inflammatory molecules that may influence prostate cancer. Increased fatty acid metabolism occurs within tumour cells, providing a potential target for prostate cancer therapies. Aberrations in amino acid metabolism have also been identified in prostate cancer tissue, particularly in metastatic cancer. This evidence indicates lifestyle interventions may be effective in reducing the incidence of clinical disease. However, much more research is needed before recommendations are made.