Hurricane wind regimes for forests of North America.

Despite the ubiquity of tropical cyclones and their impacts on forests, little is known about how tropical cyclone regimes shape the ecology and evolution of tree species. We used a simple meteorological model (HURRECON) to estimate wind fields from hurricanes in the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone basins from storms occurring between 1851 and 2022. We characterize how the intensity and frequency of hurricanes differ among geographically distinct hurricane regimes and define four hurricane regimes for North America (Continental, Inland, Coastal, and Fringe). Along this coastal-to-inland gradient, we found major differences in the frequency and intensity of hurricane wind regimes. The Fringe regime experiences category 1 winds relatively frequently [return period (RP) 25 y], whereas the Inland regime experiences category 1 winds very infrequently (RP ~3,000 y). We discuss how species traits related to tree windfirmness, such as mechanical properties and crown traits, may vary along hurricane regime gradients. Quantitative characterization of forest hurricane regimes provides a critical step for understanding the evolutionary and ecological role of hurricane regimes in wind-prone forests.

Tropical cyclone winds and precipitation stimulate cone production in the masting species longleaf pine (Pinus palustris).

Many trees exhibit masting - where reproduction is temporally variable and synchronous over large areas. Several dominant masting species occur in tropical cyclone (TC)-prone regions, but it is unknown whether TCs correlate with mast seeding. We analyzed long-term data (1958-2022) to test the hypothesis that TCs influence cone production in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris). We integrate field observations, weather data, satellite imagery, and hurricane models to test whether TCs influence cone production via: increased precipitation; canopy density reduction; and/or mechanical stress from wind. Cone production was 31% higher 1 yr after hurricanes and 71% higher after 2 yr, before returning to baseline levels. Cyclone-associated precipitation was correlated with increased cone production in wet years and cone production increased after low-intensity winds (≤ 25 m s-1 ) but not with high-intensity winds (> 25 m s-1 ). Tropical cyclones may stimulate cone production via precipitation addition, but high-intensity winds may offset any gains. Our study is the first to support the direct influence of TCs on reproduction, suggesting a previously unknown environmental correlate of masting, which may occur in hurricane-prone forests world-wide.

Low- and moderate-severity fire offers key insights for landscape restoration in ponderosa pine forests.

Restoration goals in fire-prone conifer forests include mitigating fire hazard while restoring forest structural components linked to disturbance resilience and ecological function. Restoration of overstory spatial pattern in forests often falls short of management objectives due to complexities in implementation, regulation, and available data. When historical data is available, it is often collected at plots too small to inform coarse-scale metrics like gap size and structure of tree patches (e.g., 1 ha). Principles of ecological forestry typically emphasize overstory removal patterns that emulate those of natural disturbances. So, low- and moderate-severity portions of contemporary wildfires may serve as a guide to restoration treatments where mixed-severity fires occur. Here, we compare forest spatial pattern and configuration in 15 mechanical restoration treatments and low- and moderate-severity portions of three wildfires in ponderosa pine-dominated forests to determine how they differ in spatial pattern. We obtained satellite imagery of restoration treatments and wildfires and used supervised classification to differentiate canopy and openings. We assessed elements of landscape structure including canopy and gap cover, gap attributes, and landscape heterogeneity for each disturbance type. We found that both mechanical restoration treatments and low- and moderate-severity portions of wildfires reduced forest cover, increased gap cover, and altered pattern and arrangement of gaps relative to undisturbed areas, though the magnitude of changes were greatest in the burned sites. Low- and moderate-severity wildfire consistently increased landscape heterogeneity, but mechanical treatments did not. This suggests that a greater emphasis on increasing gap and patch spatial structure may make mechanical treatments more congruent with natural disturbances. Outcomes of low- and moderate-severity portions of wildfires may provide important information upon which to base management prescriptions where reference data on landscape patterns is unavailable.

Simulated treatment effects on bird communities inform landscape-scale dry conifer forest management.

Human land use and climate change have increased forest density and wildfire risk in dry conifer forests of western North America, threatening various ecosystem services, including habitat for wildlife. Government policy supports active management to restore historical structure and ecological function. Information on potential contributions of restoration to wildlife habitat can allow assessment of tradeoffs with other ecological benefits when prioritizing treatments. We predicted avian responses to simulated treatments representing alternative scenarios to inform landscape-scale forest management planning along the Colorado Front Range. We used data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to inform a hierarchical multispecies occupancy model relating species occupancy and richness with canopy cover at two spatial scales. We then simulated changes in canopy cover (remotely sensed in 2018) under three alternative scenarios, (1) a "fuels reduction" scenario representing landscape-wide 30% reduction in canopy cover, (2) a "restoration" scenario representing more nuanced, spatially variable treatments targeting historical conditions, and (3) a reference, no-change scenario. Model predictions showed areas of potential gains and losses for species richness, richness of ponderosa pine forest habitat specialists, and the ratio of specialists to generalists at two (1 km2 and 250 m2 ) spatial scales. Under both fuels reduction and restoration scenarios, we projected greater gains than losses for species richness. Surprisingly, despite restoration more explicitly targeting ecologically relevant historical conditions, fuels reduction benefited bird species richness over a greater spatial extent than restoration, particularly in the lower montane life zone. These benefits reflected generally positive species associations with moderate canopy cover promoted more consistently under the fuels reduction scenario. In practice, contemporary forest management is likely to lie somewhere between the fuels reduction and restoration scenarios represented here. Therefore, our results inform where and how active forest management can best support avian diversity. Although our study raises questions regarding the value of including landscape-scale heterogeneity as a management objective, we do not question the value of targeting finer scale heterogeneity (i.e., stand and treatment level). Rather, our results combined with those from previous work clarify the scale at which targeting structural heterogeneity and historical reference conditions can promote particular ecosystem services.

Return on investment from fuel treatments to reduce severe wildfire and erosion in a watershed investment program in Colorado.

A small but growing number of watershed investment programs in the western United States focus on wildfire risk reduction to municipal water supplies. This paper used return on investment (ROI) analysis to quantify how the amounts and placement of fuel treatment interventions would reduce sediment loading to the Strontia Springs Reservoir in the Upper South Platte River watershed southwest of Denver, Colorado following an extreme fire event. We simulated various extents of fuel mitigation activities under two placement strategies: (a) a strategic treatment prioritization map and (b) accessibility. Potential fire behavior was modeled under each extent and scenario to determine the impact on fire severity, and this was used to estimate expected change in post-fire erosion due to treatments. We found a positive ROI after large storm events when fire mitigation treatments were placed in priority areas with diminishing marginal returns after treating >50-80% of the forested area. While our ROI results should not be used prescriptively they do show that, conditional on severe fire occurrence and precipitation, investments in the Upper South Platte could feasibly lead to positive financial returns based on the reduced costs of dredging sediment from the reservoir. While our analysis showed positive ROI focusing only on post-fire erosion mitigation, it is important to consider multiple benefits in future ROI calculations and increase monitoring and evaluation of these benefits of wildfire fuel reduction investments for different site conditions and climates.

Impacts of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) on long-term hydrology at the watershed scale.

Threats from climate change and growing populations require innovative solutions for restoring streamflow in many regions. In the arid western U.S., attempts to increase streamflow (Q) through forest management have had mixed results, but these approaches may be more successful in the eastern U.S. where greater precipitation (P) and lower evapotranspiration (ET) offer greater potential to increase Q by reducing ET. Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) (LLP) woodlands, once the dominant land cover in the southeastern United States, often have lower ET than other forest types but it is unclear how longleaf pine cover impacts watershed-scale hydrology. To address this question, we analyzed 21 gaged rural watersheds. We estimated annual water balance ET (ETwb) as the difference between precipitation (P) and streamflow (Q) between 1989 and 2021 and quantified low flow rates (7Q10) among watersheds with high and low LLP cover. To control for climate variability among watersheds, we compared variation in hydrology metrics with biotic and abiotic variables using the Budyko equation (ETBudyko) to understand the differences between the two ET estimates (∆ET). Watersheds with 15-72 % LLP cover had 17 % greater mean annual Q, 7 % lower annual ETwb, and 92 % greater 7Q10 low flow rates than watersheds with <3 % LLP. LLP cover decreased ET and increased Q by 2.4 mm or 0.15 % Q/P per 1 % of watershed area, but only when LLP was managed as open woodlands. Our results demonstrate that ecological forest restoration in these systems, which entails mechanical thinning and re-introduction of low-intensity prescribed fire to maintain open woodlands, and enhance understory diversity, can contribute to decreases in ET and increases in Q in eastern forests.

Do natural disturbances or the forestry practices that follow them convert forests to early-successional communities?

Stand-replacing natural disturbances in mature forests are traditionally seen as events that cause forests to revert to early stages of succession and maintain species diversity. In some cases, however, such transitions could be an artifact of salvage logging and may increase biotic homogenization. We present initial (two-year) results of a study of the effects of tornado damage and the combined effects of tornado damage and salvage logging on environmental conditions and ground cover plant communities in mixed oak-pine forests in north central Mississippi. Plots were established in salvage-logged areas, adjacent to plots established before the storm in unlogged areas, spanning a gradient of storm damage intensity. Vegetation change directly attributable to tornado damage was driven primarily by a reduction in canopy cover but was not consistent with a transition to an early stage of succession. Although we observed post-storm increases of several disturbance indicators (ruderals), we also observed significant increases in the abundance of a few species indicative of upland forests. Increases in flowering were just as likely to occur in species indicative of forests as in species indicative of open woodlands. Few species declined as a result of the tornado, resulting in a net increase in species richness. Ruderals were very abundant in salvage-logged areas, which contained significantly higher amounts of bare ground and greater variance in soil penetrability than did damaged areas that were not logged. In contrast to unlogged areas severely damaged by the tornado, most upland forest indicators were not abundant in logged areas. Several of the forest and open-woodland indicators that showed increased flowering in damaged areas were absent or sparse in logged areas. Species richness was lower in salvage-logged areas than in adjacent damaged areas but similar to that in undamaged areas. These results suggest that salvage logging prevented positive responses of several forest and open-woodland species to tornado damage. Anthropogenic disturbances such as salvage logging appear to differ fundamentally from stand-level canopy-reducing disturbances in their effects on ground cover vegetation in the forests studied here and are perhaps more appropriately viewed as contributing to biotic homogenization than as events that maintain diversity.