Phylogenetic analysis of multiple FISH markers in oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma suggests that a diverse distribution of copy number changes is associated with poor prognosis.

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is associated with poor prognosis. To improve prognostication, we analyzed four gene probes (TERC, CCND1, EGFR and TP53) and the centromere probe CEP4 as a marker of chromosomal instability, using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in single cells from the tumors of sixty-five OTSCC patients (Stage I, n = 15; Stage II, n = 30; Stage III, n = 7; Stage IV, n = 13). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of the FISH data distinguished three clusters related to smoking status. Copy number increases of all five markers were found to be correlated to non-smoking habits, while smokers in this cohort had low-level copy number gains. Using the phylogenetic modeling software FISHtrees, we constructed models of tumor progression for each patient based on the four gene probes. Then, we derived test statistics on the models that are significant predictors of disease-free and overall survival, independent of tumor stage and smoking status in multivariate analysis. The patients whose tumors were modeled as progressing by a more diverse distribution of copy number changes across the four genes have poorer prognosis. This is consistent with the view that multiple genetic pathways need to become deregulated in order for cancer to progress.

Inferring models of multiscale copy number evolution for single-tumor phylogenetics.

MOTIVATION: Phylogenetic algorithms have begun to see widespread use in cancer research to reconstruct processes of evolution in tumor progression. Developing reliable phylogenies for tumor data requires quantitative models of cancer evolution that include the unusual genetic mechanisms by which tumors evolve, such as chromosome abnormalities, and allow for heterogeneity between tumor types and individual patients. Previous work on inferring phylogenies of single tumors by copy number evolution assumed models of uniform rates of genomic gain and loss across different genomic sites and scales, a substantial oversimplification necessitated by a lack of algorithms and quantitative parameters for fitting to more realistic tumor evolution models. RESULTS: We propose a framework for inferring models of tumor progression from single-cell gene copy number data, including variable rates for different gain and loss events. We propose a new algorithm for identification of most parsimonious combinations of single gene and single chromosome events. We extend it via dynamic programming to include genome duplications. We implement an expectation maximization (EM)-like method to estimate mutation-specific and tumor-specific event rates concurrently with tree reconstruction. Application of our algorithms to real cervical cancer data identifies key genomic events in disease progression consistent with prior literature. Classification experiments on cervical and tongue cancer datasets lead to improved prediction accuracy for the metastasis of primary cervical cancers and for tongue cancer survival. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our software (FISHtrees) and two datasets are available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees.

Algorithms to model single gene, single chromosome, and whole genome copy number changes jointly in tumor phylogenetics.

We present methods to construct phylogenetic models of tumor progression at the cellular level that include copy number changes at the scale of single genes, entire chromosomes, and the whole genome. The methods are designed for data collected by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), an experimental technique especially well suited to characterizing intratumor heterogeneity using counts of probes to genetic regions frequently gained or lost in tumor development. Here, we develop new provably optimal methods for computing an edit distance between the copy number states of two cells given evolution by copy number changes of single probes, all probes on a chromosome, or all probes in the genome. We then apply this theory to develop a practical heuristic algorithm, implemented in publicly available software, for inferring tumor phylogenies on data from potentially hundreds of single cells by this evolutionary model. We demonstrate and validate the methods on simulated data and published FISH data from cervical cancers and breast cancers. Our computational experiments show that the new model and algorithm lead to more parsimonious trees than prior methods for single-tumor phylogenetics and to improved performance on various classification tasks, such as distinguishing primary tumors from metastases obtained from the same patient population.

Phylogenetic analysis of multiprobe fluorescence in situ hybridization data from tumor cell populations.

MOTIVATION: Development and progression of solid tumors can be attributed to a process of mutations, which typically includes changes in the number of copies of genes or genomic regions. Although comparisons of cells within single tumors show extensive heterogeneity, recurring features of their evolutionary process may be discerned by comparing multiple regions or cells of a tumor. A useful source of data for studying likely progression of individual tumors is fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), which allows one to count copy numbers of several genes in hundreds of single cells. Novel algorithms for interpreting such data phylogenetically are needed, however, to reconstruct likely evolutionary trajectories from states of single cells and facilitate analysis of tumor evolution. RESULTS: In this article, we develop phylogenetic methods to infer likely models of tumor progression using FISH copy number data and apply them to a study of FISH data from two cancer types. Statistical analyses of topological characteristics of the tree-based model provide insights into likely tumor progression pathways consistent with the prior literature. Furthermore, tree statistics from the resulting phylogenies can be used as features for prediction methods. This results in improved accuracy, relative to unstructured gene copy number data, at predicting tumor state and future metastasis. AVAILABILITY: Source code for software that does FISH tree building (FISHtrees) and the data on cervical and breast cancer examined here are available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

FISHtrees 3.0: Tumor Phylogenetics Using a Ploidy Probe.

Advances in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) make it feasible to detect multiple copy-number changes in hundreds of cells of solid tumors. Studies using FISH, sequencing, and other technologies have revealed substantial intra-tumor heterogeneity. The evolution of subclones in tumors may be modeled by phylogenies. Tumors often harbor aneuploid or polyploid cell populations. Using a FISH probe to estimate changes in ploidy can guide the creation of trees that model changes in ploidy and individual gene copy-number variations. We present FISHtrees 3.0, which implements a ploidy-based tree building method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The ploidy-based modeling in FISHtrees includes a new formulation of the problem of merging trees for changes of a single gene into trees modeling changes in multiple genes and the ploidy. When multiple samples are collected from each patient, varying over time or tumor regions, it is useful to evaluate similarities in tumor progression among the samples. Therefore, we further implemented in FISHtrees 3.0 a new method to build consensus graphs for multiple samples. We validate FISHtrees 3.0 on a simulated data and on FISH data from paired cases of cervical primary and metastatic tumors and on paired breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Tests on simulated data show improved accuracy of the ploidy-based approach relative to prior ploidyless methods. Tests on real data further demonstrate novel insights these methods offer into tumor progression processes. Trees for DCIS samples are significantly less complex than trees for paired IDC samples. Consensus graphs show substantial divergence among most paired samples from both sets. Low consensus between DCIS and IDC trees may help explain the difficulty in finding biomarkers that predict which DCIS cases are at most risk to progress to IDC. The FISHtrees software is available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees.

A Novel Subset of Human Tumors That Simultaneously Overexpress Multiple E2F-responsive Genes Found in Breast, Ovarian, and Prostate Cancers.

Reasoning that overexpression of multiple E2F-responsive genes might be a useful marker for RB1 dysfunction, we compiled a list of E2F-responsive genes from the literature and evaluated their expression in publicly available gene expression microarray data of patients with breast cancer, serous ovarian cancer, and prostate cancer. In breast cancer, a group of tumors was identified, each of which simultaneously overexpressed multiple E2F-responsive genes. Seventy percent of these genes were concerned with cell cycle progression, DNA repair, or mitosis. These E2F-responsive gene overexpressing (ERGO) tumors frequently exhibited additional evidence of Rb/E2F axis dysfunction, were mostly triple negative, and preferentially overexpressed multiple basal cytokeratins, suggesting that they overlapped substantially with the basal-like tumor subset. ERGO tumors were also identified in serous ovarian cancer and prostate cancer. In these cancer types, there was no evidence for a tumor subset comparable to the breast cancer basal-like subset. A core group of about 30 E2F-responsive genes were overexpressed in all three cancer types. Thus, it appears that disorders of the Rb/E2F axis can arise at multiple organ sites and produce tumors that simultaneously overexpress multiple E2F-responsive genes.