Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The mGFT scored 41/60 points (68%), with high inter-rater reliability (100%), indicating a greater likelihood of an unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. This risk assessment cannot prove the origin of SARS-CoV-2 but shows that the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.

Origin of the H1N1 (Russian influenza) pandemic of 1977-A risk assessment using the modified Grunow-Finke tool (mGFT).

In 1977, the Soviet Union (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR]) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of H1N1 influenza, which later spread to many countries. The H1N1 strain of 1977 reappeared after being absent from the world for over 20 years. This pandemic simultaneously spread to several cities in the USSR and China. Many theories have been postulated to account for the emergence of this pandemic, including natural and unnatural origins. The purpose of this study was to use the modified Grunow-Finke risk assessment tool (modified Grunow-Finke tool [mGFT]) to investigate the origin of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic. Data was collected from WHO archives and published documents. The assessment of the pandemic's origin involved the utilization of a modified version of the original Grunow-Finke risk assessment tool (GFT). Using the mGFT, the final score was 37 out of 60 points (probability: 62%), indicating a high likelihood that the Russian influenza pandemic of 1977 was of unnatural origin. Several variables supported this finding, including the sudden re-emergence of a previously extinct strain, a genetic signature of laboratory modification for vaccine development, and unusual epidemiology. Inter-rater reliability was moderate to high. By applying the mGFT to the 1977 Russian influenza pandemic, we established a high probability that this pandemic was of unnatural origin. Although this is not definitive, it is consistent with the possibility that it originated from an incompletely attenuated live influenza vaccine. The mGFT is a useful risk analysis tool to evaluate the origin of epidemics.

Association of recent respiratory illness and influenza with acute myocardial infarction among the Bangladeshi population: A case-control study.

Current evidence suggests that recent acute respiratory infections and seasonal influenza may precipitate acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study examined the potential link between recent clinical respiratory illness (CRI) and influenza, and AMI in Bangladesh. Conducted during the 2018 influenza season at a Dhaka tertiary-level cardiovascular (CV) hospital, it included 150 AMI cases and two control groups: 44 hospitalized cardiac patients without AMI and 90 healthy individuals. Participants were matched by gender and age groups. The study focused on self-reported CRI and laboratory-confirmed influenza ascertained via quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) within the preceding week, analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Results showed that cases reported CRI, significantly more frequently than healthy controls (27.3% vs. 13.3%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.06), although this was not significantly different from all controls (27.3% vs. 22.4%; aOR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.65-2.18). Influenza rates were insignificantly higher among cases than controls. The study suggests that recent respiratory illnesses may precede AMI onset among Bangladeshi patients. Infection prevention and control practices, as well as the uptake of the influenza vaccine, may be advocated for patients at high risk of acute CV events.

Monitoring the burden of COVID-19 and impact of hospital transfer policies on Australian aged-care residents in residential aged-care facilities in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Residential aged-care facilities in Australia emerged as the high-risk setting the COVID-19 outbreaks due to community transmission. The vulnerable aged-care residents of these facilities suffered due to low hospital transfers and high mortality and morbidity rates. This study aimed to monitor and report the burden of COVID-19 in residential aged-care facilities across Australia and the impact of hospital transfer policies on resident hospitalisation during the first year of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by collecting data from weekly aged-care outbreak reports published by open sources and official government sources between 1st March and 20th November 2020. A comprehensive line list of outbreaks was created using open-source data. The line list included the name of the facility, location, COVID-19 cases among residents, & staff, resident hospitalisations, mode of transmission, number of resident deaths, and state policies involving resident hospitalisation. We also searched the websites of these facilities to collect data on their COVID-19 policies for the residents, staff, and visitors. Statistical analyses were performed on the data obtained. RESULTS: 126 aged-care COVID-19 outbreaks were identified in Australia during the study period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 infections among aged-care residents in Australia was (1118.5 per 100,000 resident population) which is 10 times higher than the general population (107.6 per 100,000 population). The hospitalisation rate for aged-care residents in Australia was 0.93 per 100,000 population. The hospitalisation rate of aged-care residents in Victoria was 3.14 per 100,000 population despite having the highest COVID-19 cases. Excluding South Australia, all states followed ad-hoc case-by-case hospital transfer policies for aged-care residents. CONCLUSION: This study documented a higher risk of COVID-19 infection for aged-care residents and workers but found low hospitalisation rates among residents across Australia. The hospitalisation rates in Victoria were higher than the national average but low when considering the COVID-19 infection rates in the state. The hospitalisation rates could have been impacted due to the state hospital transfer policies at that time. Immediate transfer of infected residents to hospitals may improve their survival and reduce the risk of infection to the other residents, as healthcare settings have more advanced infection control measures and are well-equipped with trained staff and resources.

Airborne or Droplet Precautions for Health Workers Treating Coronavirus Disease 2019?

Cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in more than 200 countries. Thousands of health workers have been infected, and outbreaks have occurred in hospitals, aged care facilities, and prisons. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued guidelines for contact and droplet precautions for healthcare workers caring for suspected COVID-19 patients, whereas the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has initially recommended airborne precautions. The 1- to 2-meter (≈3-6 feet) rule of spatial separation is central to droplet precautions and assumes that large droplets do not travel further than 2 meters (≈6 feet). We aimed to review the evidence for horizontal distance traveled by droplets and the guidelines issued by the WHO, CDC, and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control on respiratory protection for COVID-19. We found that the evidence base for current guidelines is sparse, and the available data do not support the 1- to 2-meter (≈3-6 feet) rule of spatial separation. Of 10 studies on horizontal droplet distance, 8 showed droplets travel more than 2 meters (≈6 feet), in some cases up to 8 meters (≈26 feet). Several studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) support aerosol transmission, and 1 study documented virus at a distance of 4 meters (≈13 feet) from the patient. Moreover, evidence suggests that infections cannot neatly be separated into the dichotomy of droplet versus airborne transmission routes. Available studies also show that SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in the air, and remain viable 3 hours after aerosolization. The weight of combined evidence supports airborne precautions for the occupational health and safety of health workers treating patients with COVID-19.

Droplets and Aerosols Generated by Singing and the Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 for Choirs.

Choral singing has become a major risk during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic due to high infection rates. Our visualization and velocimetry results reveal that the majority of droplets expelled during singing follow the ambient airflow pattern. These results point toward the possibility of COVID-19 spread by small airborne droplets during singing.

Contamination by respiratory viruses on outer surface of medical masks used by hospital healthcare workers.

BACKGROUND: Medical masks are commonly used in health care settings to protect healthcare workers (HCWs) from respiratory and other infections. Airborne respiratory pathogens may settle on the surface of used masks layers, resulting in contamination. The main aim of this study was to study the presence of viruses on the surface of medical masks. METHODS: Two pilot studies in laboratory and clinical settings were carried out to determine the areas of masks likely to contain maximum viral particles. A laboratory study using a mannequin and fluorescent spray showed maximum particles concentrated on upper right, middle and left sections of the medical masks. These findings were confirmed through a small clinical study. The main study was then conducted in high-risk wards of three selected hospitals in Beijing China. Participants (n = 148) were asked to wear medical masks for a shift (6-8 h) or as long as they could tolerate. Used samples of medical masks were tested for presence of respiratory viruses in upper sections of the medical masks, in line with the pilot studies. RESULTS: Overall virus positivity rate was 10.1% (15/148). Commonly isolated viruses from masks samples were adenovirus (n = 7), bocavirus (n = 2), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 2) and influenza virus (n = 2). Virus positivity was significantly higher in masks samples worn for > 6 h (14.1%, 14/99 versus 1.2%, 1/49, OR 7.9, 95% CI 1.01-61.99) and in samples used by participants who examined > 25 patients per day (16.9%, 12/71 versus 3.9%, 3/77, OR 5.02, 95% CI 1.35-18.60). Most of the participants (83.8%, 124/148) reported at least one problem associated with mask use. Commonly reported problems were pressure on face (16.9%, 25/148), breathing difficulty (12.2%, 18/148), discomfort (9.5% 14/148), trouble communicating with the patient (7.4%, 11/148) and headache (6.1%, 9/148). CONCLUSION: Respiratory pathogens on the outer surface of the used medical masks may result in self-contamination. The risk is higher with longer duration of mask use (> 6 h) and with higher rates of clinical contact. Protocols on duration of mask use should specify a maximum time of continuous use, and should consider guidance in high contact settings. Viruses were isolated from the upper sections of around 10% samples, but other sections of masks may also be contaminated. HCWs should be aware of these risks in order to protect themselves and people around them.

Recalibration of the Grunow-Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics.

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow-Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled "special insights," and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.

Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence.

We built a SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model of smallpox transmission for New York, New York, USA, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, that accounted for age-specific population immunosuppression and residual vaccine immunity and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the effect these parameters might have on smallpox reemergence. At least 19% of New York's and 17% of Sydney's population are immunosuppressed. The highest smallpox infection rates were in persons 0-19 years of age, but the highest death rates were in those >45 years of age. Because of the low level of residual vaccine immunity, immunosuppression was more influential than vaccination on death and infection rates in our model. Despite widespread smallpox vaccination until 1980 in New York, smallpox outbreak severity appeared worse in New York than in Sydney. Immunosuppression is highly prevalent and should be considered in future smallpox outbreak models because excluding this factor probably underestimates death and infection rates.

The role of pneumonia and secondary bacterial infection in fatal and serious outcomes of pandemic influenza a(H1N1)pdm09.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pneumonia and secondary bacterial infections during the pandemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to identify relevant literature in which clinical outcomes of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection were described. Published studies (between 01/01/2009 and 05/07/2012) describing cases of fatal or hospitalised A(H1N1)pdm09 and including data on bacterial testing or co-infection. RESULTS: Seventy five studies met the inclusion criteria. Fatal cases with autopsy specimen testing were reported in 11 studies, in which any co-infection was identified in 23% of cases (Streptococcus pneumoniae 29%). Eleven studies reported bacterial co-infection among hospitalised cases of A(H1N1)2009pdm with confirmed pneumonia, with a mean of 19% positive for bacteria (Streptococcus pneumoniae 54%). Of 16 studies of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, bacterial co-infection identified in a mean of 19% of cases (Streptococcus pneumoniae 26%). The mean prevalence of bacterial co-infection was 12% in studies of hospitalised patients not requiring ICU (Streptococcus pneumoniae 33%) and 16% in studies of paediatric patients hospitalised in general or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) wards (Streptococcus pneumoniae 16%). CONCLUSION: We found that few studies of the 2009 influenza pandemic reported on bacterial complications and testing. Of studies which did report on this, secondary bacterial infection was identified in almost one in four patients, with Streptococcus pneumoniae the most common bacteria identified. Bacterial complications were associated with serious outcomes such as death and admission to intensive care. Prevention and treatment of bacterial secondary infection should be an integral part of pandemic planning, and improved uptake of routine pneumococcal vaccination in adults with an indication may reduce the impact of a pandemic.

Prevalence and genotypes of group A rotavirus among outpatient children under five years old with diarrhea in Beijing, China, 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is a leading cause of severe diarrheal disease, and one of the common causes of death in children aged under five years old. The dominant epidemic strains may change in different years in the same area. In order to provide evidence for rotavirus epidemic control and inform vaccine development, we analyzed epidemiological patterns and genetic characteristics of rotavirus in Beijing during 2011-2016. METHODS: Stool specimens of outpatient children under five years old were collected from three children's hospitals on a weekly basis. Group A rotavirus antigens were detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit. The partial VP4 genes and VP7 genes of rotavirus were both amplified and sequenced. Genotyping and phylogenetic analyses were performed. Logistic regression and Chi-square tests were performed to determine differences across age groups, districts and years in rotavirus prevalence and genotype distribution. RESULTS: A total of 3668 stool specimens from children with acute diarrhea identified through hospital-based surveillance were collected from 2011 to 2016 in Beijing. A total of 762 (20.8%) specimens tested positive for rotavirus. The rotavirus-positive rate was highest among the 1-2 years old age group (29.0%, 310/1070). November, December and January were the highest rotavirus-positive rate months each year. G9 was the most common G genotype (64.4%, 461/716), and P [8] was the most common P genotype (87.0%, 623/716) among the 716 rotavirus-positive specimens. G9P [8], G3P [8] and G2P [4] were the most common strains. The rotavirus-positive rates of samples in 2012 and 2013 were higher than that in 2011, and the dominant genotype changed from G3P [8] to G9P [8] in 2012 and 2013. VP7 gene sequences of G9 strains in this study clustered into two main lineages. Most of the G9 strains exhibited the highest nucleotide similarity (99.1%~ 100.0%) to the strain found in Japan (MI1128). VP4 gene sequences of P [8] strains were almost P[8]b. CONCLUSIONS: Rotavirus accounted for more than one fifth of childhood diarrhea in Beijing during the study period. Targeted measures such as immunization with effective rotavirus vaccines should be carried out to reduce the morbidity and mortality due to rotavirus.

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response.

Viral and bacterial upper respiratory tract infection in hospital health care workers over time and association with symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial colonisation of the respiratory tract is commonly described and usually thought to be of no clinical significance. The aim of this study was to examine the presence and significance of bacteria and viruses in the upper respiratory tract of healthcare workers (HCWs), and association with respiratory symptoms. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in China and 223 HCWs were recruited from fever clinics and respiratory, paediatric, emergency/Intensive medication wards. Participants were followed over 4 weeks (7th May 2015 to 4th June 2015) for development of clinical respiratory illness (CRI). Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained at baseline and at the end of the study. The primary endpoints were laboratory-confirmed bacterial colonisation and viral respiratory infection. Rates of the following infections in symptomatic and asymptomatic participants were compared at the start or end of the study; 1) all bacterial/viral infections, 2) bacterial infection and bacterial-viral co-infections, excluding virus only infections, and 3) only bacterial infections. RESULTS: Bacterial colonisation was identified in 88% (196/223) of participants at the start or end of the study. Among these participants, 66% (148/223) had only bacterial colonisation while 22% (48/223) had co-infection with a virus. Bacteria were isolated from 170 (76.2%) participants at baseline and 127 (57%) participants at the end of the study. Laboratory confirmed viral infections were identified in 53 (23.8%) participants - 35 (15.7%) at the baseline and 20 (9.0%) at the end of the study. CRI symptoms were recorded in 12 participants (4.5%) and all had a positive bacterium isolation at baseline (n = 11) or end of the study (n = 1). Among asymptomatic participants, 187 (87%) had bacterial colonisation or bacterial/viral co-infection at baseline or end of the study. Viruses were also isolated from 5 (2.4%) asymptomatic cases. Rates of all infection outcomes were higher in symptomatic participants, however differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: We isolated high rates of bacteria and viruses in the upper respiratory tract of hospital HCWs, which may reflect greater exposure to respiratory infections in the hospital. Although respiratory infections are mostly symptomatic, the association between bacterial colonization and symptomatic illness is not clear. In the healthcare setting, HCWs may acquire and transmit infection to patients and other HCWs around them. Larger studies are required to explore ongoing occupational risk of respiratory infection in hospitals HCWs.

Compliance with the Use of Medical and Cloth Masks Among Healthcare Workers in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Masks are often worn in healthcare settings to prevent the spread of infection from healthcare workers (HCWs) to patients. Masks are also used to protect the employee from patient-generated infectious organisms but poor compliance can reduce efficacy. The aim of this study was to examine the factors influencing compliance with the use of medical and cloth masks amongst hospital HCWs. METHODS: HCWs compliance with the use of medical and cloth masks was measured over a 4-week period in a randomized controlled trial in Vietnam. HCWs were instructed to record their daily activities in diary cards. Demographic, clinical, and diary card data were used to determine the predictors of compliance and the relationship of compliance with infection outcomes. RESULTS: Compliance rates for both medical and cloth masks decreased during the 4 weeks: medical mask use decreased from 77 to 68% (P < 0.001) and cloth masks from 78 to 69% (P < 0.001). The presence of adverse events (adjusted RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.95), and performing aerosol-generating procedures (adjusted RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.82) were negatively associated with compliance, while contact with febrile respiratory illness patients was positively associated (adjusted RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.20). Being compliant with medical or cloth masks use (average use ≥70% of working time) was not associated with clinical respiratory illness, influenza-like illness, and laboratory-confirmed viral infection. CONCLUSION: Understanding the factors that affect compliance is important for the occupational health and safety of HCWs. New strategies and tools should be developed to increase compliance of HCWs. The presence of adverse events such as discomfort and breathing problems may be the main reasons for the low compliance with mask use and further studies should be conducted to improve the design/material of masks to improve comfort for the wearer.

Prevalence of influenza and other acute respiratory illnesses in patients with acute myocardial infarction in Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study.

Background and Aims: Several studies imply that influenza and other respiratory illnesses could lead to acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but data from low-income countries are scarce. We investigated the prevalence of recent respiratory illnesses and confirmed influenza in AMI patients, while also exploring their relationship with infarction severity as defined by ST-elevation MI (STEMI) or high troponin levels. Methods: This cross-sectional study, held at a Dhaka tertiary hospital from May 2017 to October 2018, involved AMI inpatients. The study examined self-reported clinical respiratory illnesses (CRI) in the week before AMI onset and confirmed influenza using baseline real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Results: Of 744 patients, 11.3% reported a recent CRI, most prominently during the 2017 influenza season (35.7%). qRT-PCR testing found evidence of influenza in 1.5% of 546 patients, with all positives among STEMI cases. Frequencies of CRI were higher in patients with STEMI and in those with high troponin levels, although these relationships were not statistically significant after adjusting for other variables. The risk of STEMI was significantly greater during influenza seasons in the unadjusted analysis (relative risk: 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.18), however, this relationship was not significant in the adjusted analysis (adjusted relative risk: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.91-1.16). Conclusion: In Bangladesh, many AMI patients had a recent respiratory illness history, with some showing evidence of influenza. However, these illnesses showed no significant relationship to AMI severity. Further research is needed to understand these relationships better and to investigate the potential benefits of infection control measures and influenza vaccinations in reducing AMI incidence.

Perinatal mortality following assisted reproductive technology treatment in Australia and New Zealand, a public health approach for international reporting of perinatal mortality.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to have uniformed reporting of perinatal mortality for births following assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment to enable international comparison and benchmarking of ART practice. METHODS: The Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database was used in this study. Births of ≥ 20 weeks gestation and/or ≥ 400 grams of birth weight following embryos transfer cycles in Australia and New Zealand during the period 2004 to 2008 were included. Differences in the mortality rates by different perinatal periods from a gestational age cutoff of ≥ 20, ≥ 22, ≥ 24, or ≥ 28 weeks (wks) to a neonatal period cutoff of either < 7 or < 28 days after birth were assessed. Crude and specific (number of embryos transferred and plurality) rates of perinatal mortality were calculated for selected gestational and neonatal periods. RESULTS: When the perinatal period is defined as ≥ 20 wks gestation to < 28 days after birth, the perinatal mortality rate (PMR) was 16.1 per 1000 births (n = 630). A progressive contraction of the gestational age groups resulted in marked reductions in the PMR for deaths at < 28 days (22 wks 11.0; 24 wks 7.7; 28 wks 5.6); and similarly for deaths at < 7 days (20 wks 15.6, 22 wks 10.5; 24 wks 7.3; 28 wks 5.3). In contrast, a contraction of the perinatal period from < 28 to < 7 days after birth only marginally reduced the PMR from 16.2 to 15.6 per 1000 births which was consistent across all gestational ages.The PMR for single embryo transfer (SET) births (≥ 20 weeks gestation to < 7 days post-birth) was significantly lower (12.8 per 1000 SET births) compared to double embryo transfer (DET) births (PMR 18.3 per 1000 DET births; p < 0.001, Fisher's Exact Test). Similarly, the PMR for SET births (≥ 22 weeks gestation to < 7 days post-birth) was significantly lower (8.8 per 1000 SET births, p < 0.001, Fisher's Exact Test) when compared to DET births (12.2 per 1000 DET births). The highest PMR (50.5 per 1000 SET births, 95% CI 36.5-64.5) was for twins following SET births (≥ 20 weeks gestation to < 7 days post-birth) compared to twins following DET (23.9 per 1000 DET births, 95% CI 20.8-27.1). CONCLUSION: Reporting of perinatal mortality of ART births is an essential component of quality ART practice. This should include measures that monitor the impact on perinatal mortality of multiple embryo transfer. We recommend that reporting of perinatal deaths following ART treatment, should be stratified for three gestation-specific perinatal periods of ≥ 20, ≥ 22 and ≥ 28 completed weeks to < 7 days post-birth; and include plurality specific rates by SET and DET. This would provide a valuable international evidence-base of PMR for use in evaluating ART policy, practice and new research.

Estimated Mask Use and Temporal Relationship to COVID-19 Epidemiology of Black Lives Matter Protests in 12 Cities.

BACKGROUND: There is an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during mass gatherings and a risk of asymptomatic infection. We aimed to estimate the use of masks during Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests and whether these protests increased the risk of COVID-19. Two reviewers screened 496 protest images for mask use, with high inter-rater reliability. Protest intensity, use of tear gas, government control measures, and testing rates were estimated in 12 cities. A correlation analysis was conducted to assess the potential effect of mask use and other measures, adjusting for testing rates, on COVID-19 epidemiology 4 weeks (two incubation periods) post-protests. Mask use ranged from 69 to 96% across protests. There was no increase in the incidence of COVID-19 post-protest in 11 cities. After adjusting for testing rates, only Miami, which involved use of tear gas and had high protest intensity, showed a clear increase in COVID-19 after one incubation period post-protest. No significant correlation was found between incidence and protest factors. Our study showed that protests in most cities studied did not increase COVID-19 incidence in 2020, and a high level of mask use was seen. The absence of an epidemic surge within two incubation periods of a protest is indicative that the protests did not have a major influence on epidemic activity, except in Miami. With the globally circulating highly transmissible Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants, layered interventions such as mandated mask use, physical distancing, testing, and vaccination should be applied for mass gatherings in the future.

The long road of pandemic vaccine development to rollout: A systematic review on the lessons learnt from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic prompted one of the largest public health responses in history. The continuous emergence of new and deadly pathogens has highlighted the need to reflect upon past experiences to improve pandemic preparedness. The aim of this study was to examine the development and rollout of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine and knowledge challenges for the effective implementation of vaccination programs for COVID-19 and future influenza pandemics. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted searching EMBASE (inception to current date) and PUBMED (from January 2009 to current date) databases for relevant published studies about influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccines. A Google search was conducted to identify relevant documents from gray literature. Selected Studies were reviewed and summarized. RESULTS: A total of 22, comprising of 12 original studies and 10 relevant documents met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen papers reported an initial high demand that outweighed production capacity and caused vaccine shortages. Vaccine procurement and supply were skewed toward high-income countries. Low vaccination rates of about 5%-50% were reported in all studies mainly due to a low-risk perception of getting infected, safety concerns, and the fear of adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: Safety concerns about the approved H1N1 vaccines resulted in many unsuccessful vaccination campaigns worldwide. Understanding the factors that influence people's decision to accept or refuse vaccination, effective risk communication strategies, adequate resources for vaccine deployment initiatives and building local capacities through shared knowledge and technology transfer may help to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake and accelerate pandemic control.