Fatal prostate cancer incidence trends in the United States and England by race, stage, and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Differential uptake of prostate-specific antigen testing in the US and UK has been linked to between-country differences for prostate cancer incidence. We examined stage-specific fatal prostate cancer incidence trends in the US and England, by treatment and race/ethnicity. METHODS: Using data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and Public Health England's National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service, we identified prostate cancer patients diagnosed between 1995 and 2005, aged 45-84 years. Fatal prostate cancer was defined as death attributed to the disease within 10 years of diagnosis. We used age-period-cohort models to assess trends in fatal prostate cancer incidence. RESULTS: Fatal prostate cancer incidence declined in the US by -7.5% each year and increased in England by 7.7% annually. These trends were primarily driven by locoregional disease in the US and distant disease in England. Black men in both countries had twofold to threefold higher fatal prostate cancer incidence rates, when compared with their white counterparts; however, receipt of radical prostatectomy lessened this disparity. CONCLUSIONS: We report a significant increasing rate of fatal prostate cancer incidence among English men. The black-white racial disparity appears pervasive but is attenuated among those who received radical prostatectomy in the US.

Geographical variations in the use of cancer treatments are associated with survival of lung cancer patients.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer outcomes in England are inferior to comparable countries. Patient or disease characteristics, healthcare-seeking behaviour, diagnostic pathways, and oncology service provision may contribute. We aimed to quantify associations between geographic variations in treatment and survival of patients in England. METHODS: We retrieved detailed cancer registration data to analyse the variation in survival of 176,225 lung cancer patients, diagnosed 2010-2014. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression to investigate survival in the two-year period following diagnosis. RESULTS: Survival improved over the period studied. The use of active treatment varied between geographical areas, with inter-quintile ranges of 9%-17% for surgical resection, 4%-13% for radical radiotherapy, and 22%-35% for chemotherapy. At 2 years, there were 188 potentially avoidable deaths annually for surgical resection, and 373 for radical radiotherapy, if all treated proportions were the same as in the highest quintiles. At the 6 month time-point, 318 deaths per year could be postponed if chemotherapy use for all patients was as in the highest quintile. The results were robust to statistical adjustments for age, sex, socio-economic status, performance status and co-morbidity. CONCLUSION: The extent of use of different treatment modalities varies between geographical areas in England. These variations are not attributable to measurable patient and tumour characteristics, and more likely reflect differences in clinical management between local multi-disciplinary teams. The data suggest improvement over time, but there is potential for further survival gains if the use of active treatments in all areas could be increased towards the highest current regional rates.

Investigation of the international comparability of population-based routine hospital data set derived comorbidity scores for patients with lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) identified significant international differences in lung cancer survival. Differing levels of comorbid disease across ICBP countries has been suggested as a potential explanation of this variation but, to date, no studies have quantified its impact. This study investigated whether comparable, robust comorbidity scores can be derived from the different routine population-based cancer data sets available in the ICBP jurisdictions and, if so, use them to quantify international variation in comorbidity and determine its influence on outcome. METHODS: Linked population-based lung cancer registry and hospital discharge data sets were acquired from nine ICBP jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Norway and the UK providing a study population of 233 981 individuals. For each person in this cohort Charlson, Elixhauser and inpatient bed day Comorbidity Scores were derived relating to the 4-36 months prior to their lung cancer diagnosis. The scores were then compared to assess their validity and feasibility of use in international survival comparisons. RESULTS: It was feasible to generate the three comorbidity scores for each jurisdiction, which were found to have good content, face and concurrent validity. Predictive validity was limited and there was evidence that the reliability was questionable. CONCLUSION: The results presented here indicate that interjurisdictional comparability of recorded comorbidity was limited due to probable differences in coding and hospital admission practices in each area. Before the contribution of comorbidity on international differences in cancer survival can be investigated an internationally harmonised comorbidity index is required.

Lung cancer stage-shift following a symptom awareness campaign.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer outcomes in the UK are worse than in many other developed nations. Symptom awareness campaigns aim to diagnose patients at an earlier stage to improve cancer outcomes. METHODS: An early diagnosis campaign for lung cancer commenced in Leeds, UK in 2011 comprising public and primary-care facing components. Rates of community referral for chest X-ray and lung cancer stage (TNM seventh edition) at presentation were collected from 2008 to 2015. Linear trends were assessed by χ2 test for trend in proportions. Headline figures are presented for the 3 years pre-campaign (2008-2010) and the three most recent years for which data are available during the campaign (2013-2015). FINDINGS: Community-ordered chest X-ray rates per year increased from 18 909 in 2008-2010 to 34 194 in 2013-2015 (80.8% increase). A significant stage shift towards earlier stage lung cancer was seen (χ2(1)=32.2, p<0.0001). There was an 8.8 percentage point increase in the proportion of patients diagnosed with stage I/II lung cancer (26.5% pre-campaign vs 35.3% during campaign) and a 9.3% reduction in the absolute number of patients diagnosed with stage III/IV disease (1254 pre-campaign vs 1137 during campaign). INTERPRETATION: This is the largest described lung cancer stage-shift in association with a symptom awareness campaign. A causal link between the campaign and stage-shift cannot be proven but appears plausible. Limitations of the analysis include a lack of contemporary control population.

Short-term breast cancer survival in relation to ethnicity, stage, grade and receptor status: national cohort study in England.

BACKGROUND: In the re-organisation of cancer registration in England in 2012, a high priority was given to the recording of cancer stage and other prognostic clinical data items. METHODS: We extracted 86 852 breast cancer records for women resident in England and diagnosed during 2012-2013. Information on age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, comorbidity, tumour stage, grade, morphology and oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptor status was included. The two-year cumulative risk of death from any cause was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The follow-up ended on 31 December 2014. RESULTS: The completeness of registration for prognostic variables was generally high (around 80% or higher), but it was low for progesterone receptor status (41%). Women with negative receptor status for each of the oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptors (triple-negative cancers) had an adjusted HR for death of 2.00 (95%CI 1.84-2.17). Black women had an age-adjusted HR of 1.77 (1.48-2.13) compared with White women. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality of Black women with breast cancer has contributions from socio-economic factors, stage distribution and tumour biology. The study illustrates the richness of detail in the national cancer registration data. This allows for analysis of cancer outcomes at a high level of resolution, and may form the basis for risk stratification.

Comparing the case mix and survival of women receiving breast cancer care from one private provider with other London women with breast cancer: pilot data exchange and analyses.

BACKGROUND: Data from providers of private cancer care are not yet formally included in English cancer registration data. This study aimed to test the exchange of breast cancer data from one Hospital Corporation of America International (HCAI) hospital in London with the cancer registration system and assess the suitability of these data for comparative analyses of case mix and adjusted survival. METHODS: Data on 199 London women receiving 'only HCAI care', 278 women receiving 'some HCAI care' (HCAI and other services), and 31,234 other London women diagnosed between 2005 and 2011 could be identified and compared. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression was used to adjust for age, socioeconomic deprivation, year of diagnosis, stage of disease and recorded treatment. RESULTS: Women receiving 'only HCAI care' were younger, lived in areas of higher affluence (47.8 % vs 27.6 %) and appeared less likely to be recorded as having screen-detected (2.5 % vs 25.0 %) disease than other London women. Women receiving 'some HCAI care' were more similar to 'HCAI only' women. Although HCAI stage of disease data completeness improved during the study period, this was less complete overall than cancer registration data and limited the comparative survival analyses. An apparent survival advantage for 'HCAI only' women compared with other London women (hazard ratio 0.48, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.32-0.74) was attenuated and no longer statistically significant after adjustment (0.79, 95 % CI: 0.51-1.21). Women receiving 'some HCAI care' appeared to have higher survival (hazard ratio 0.24, 95 % CI 0.14-0.41) which was attenuated to 0.48 (95 % CI: 0.28-0.80) in the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: Exchange of data between the private cancer sector and the English cancer registration service can identify patients who receive all or some private care. The better survival of women receiving only or some HCAI breast cancer care appears to be at least partly explained by demographic, disease, and treatment factors. However, larger studies using similarly quality assured datasets and more complete staging data from the private sector are needed to produce definitive comparative results.

Hospital volume, proportion resected and mortality from oesophageal and gastric cancer: a population-based study in England, 2004-2008.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the associations between hospital volume, resection rate and survival of oesophageal and gastric cancer patients in England. DESIGN: 62,811 patients diagnosed with oesophageal or gastric cancer between 2004 and 2008 were identified from a national population-based cancer registration and Hospital Episode Statistics-linked dataset. Cox regression analyses were used to assess all-cause mortality according to hospital volume and resection rate, adjusting for case-mix variables (sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity and type of cancer). HRs and 95% CIs, according to hospital volume, were evaluated for three predefined periods following surgery: <30, 30-365, and >365 days. Analysis of mortality in relation to resection rate was performed among all patients and among the 13 189 (21%) resected patients. RESULTS: Increasing hospital volume was associated with lower mortality (p trend=0.0001; HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.95 for hospitals resecting 80+ and compared with <20 patients a year). In relative terms, the association between increasing hospital volume and lower mortality was particularly strong in the first 30 days following surgery (p trend<0.0001; HR 0.52, (0.39 to 0.70)), but a clinically relevant association remained beyond 1 year (p trend=0.0011; HR 0.82, (0.72 to 0.95)). Increasing resection rates were associated with lower mortality among all patients (p trend<0.0001; HR 0.86, (0.84 to 0.89) for the highest, compared with the lowest resection quintile). CONCLUSIONS: With evidence of lower short-term and longer-term mortality for patients resected in high-volume hospitals, this study supports further centralisation of oesophageal and gastric cancer surgical services in England.

Socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in screen-detected breast cancer in London.

BACKGROUND: We investigated socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in screen-detected breast cancer in London-a city with relatively low breast cancer screening uptake and a diverse population. METHODS: Data on 11 957 breast cancers in London women aged 50-64 between 1998 and 2005 were extracted from the Thames Cancer Registry. We investigated the relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and the incidence and 5-year relative survival of screen-detected and non screen-detected cancers. Using logistic regression analysis we explored whether differences in screen-detected cancers between White, Asian and Black women were influenced by age and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: The incidence of screen-detected breast cancer was lower in deprived women and their 5-year relative survival was worse than affluent women. However, survival differences were smaller for screen-detected disease. Among women with breast cancer the odds ratios (OR) for screen-detected disease differed between ethnic groups and these differences were not influenced by adjustment for age and deprivation. Compared with White women, Indian women had higher odds (OR 1.50, 95% confidence interval (1.23-1.84)], and Black Caribbean [0.68 (0.54-0.87)] and Black African women [0.53 (0.38-0.76)] significantly lower odds. CONCLUSION: A sustained focus on increasing screening uptake among deprived women and in Black communities could decrease inequalities in early diagnosis.

Mesothelioma incidence projections in South East England.

We estimated the past and future age-standardised incidence rates of mesothelioma by birth cohort and by period of diagnosis in South East England. We extracted data on patients diagnosed with mesothelioma (International Classification of Diseases-10 C45) between 1960 and 2009 from the Thames Cancer Registry. We calculated the age-standardised incidence rates using the European standard population. We used age-cohort and age-period modelling to estimate the age-specific incidence rates for the 1900 to 1950 birth cohorts and the 1935 to 2034 calendar periods. A much more pronounced increase in mesothelioma incidence between 1972 and 2007 was observed in males than in females. In both sexes, the incidence rates increased in successive generations up to the 1945 birth cohort. Projection of rates in the future showed an increase in incidence in males until 2022 and a decrease thereafter. Among females, the incidence rate was predicted to increase gradually until reaching its maximum around 2027, and to remain stable thereafter. The occurrence of mesothelioma is closely linked to occupational exposure to asbestos in the 1960s and 1970s and, due to the long latency period, the incidence of mesothelioma is projected to increase until the 2020s.

Incidence and survival of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007, a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Major changes in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancers have been reported internationally. This study describes recent trends in incidence and survival of subgroups of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007 and considers the implications for cancer services and policy. METHODS: Data on 133,804 English patients diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer between 1998 and 2007 were extracted from the National Cancer Data Repository. Using information on anatomical site and tumour morphology, data were divided into six groups; upper and middle oesophagus, lower oesophagus, oesophagus with an unspecified anatomical site, cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site. Age-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 European standard population) were calculated for each group by year of diagnosis and by socioeconomic deprivation. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The majority of oesophageal cancers were in the lower third of the oesophagus (58%). Stomach with an unspecified anatomical site was the largest gastric cancer group (53%). The incidence of lower oesophageal cancer increased between 1998 and 2002 and remained stable thereafter. The incidence of cancer of the cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site declined over the 10 year period. Both lower oesophageal and cardia cancers had a much higher incidence in males compared with females (M:F 4:1). The incidence was also higher in the most deprived quintiles for all six cancer groups. Survival was poor in all sub-groups with 1 year survival ranging from 14.8-40.8% and 5 year survival ranging from 3.7-15.6%. CONCLUSIONS: An increased focus on prevention and early diagnosis, especially in deprived areas and in males, is required to improve outcomes for these cancers. Improved recording of tumour site, stage and morphology and the evaluation of focused early diagnosis programmes are also needed. The poor long-term survival reinforces the need for early detection and multidisciplinary care.

Does place of death from cancer vary between ethnic groups in South East England?

There is growing evidence that the palliative care needs of certain people, such as those from minority ethnic groups, are not being met. The aim of this study was to investigate whether place of death from cancer differs between ethnic groups. A total of 101,516 patients resident in South East England and who died from lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer between 1998 and 2006 were extracted from the Thames Cancer Registry database. Ethnicity data were available for 68,804 patients (68%). The odds ratios (ORs) of death from cancer in a hospice, at home or in hospital were calculated. The results were adjusted for age at death, deprivation, cancer network of residence and time between diagnosis and death. Following adjustment, death in a hospice was significantly less likely for Pakistani patients (OR=0.47 95% CI [0.30-0.74]), Indian patients (0.68 [0.55-0.84]) and Bangladeshi patients (0.33 [0.19-0.56]). Death at home was significantly less likely in Black African patients (0.48 [0.36-0.65]), Black Caribbean patients (0.78 [0.67-0.90]) and Chinese patients (0.46 [0.28-0.76]). Pakistani, Indian, Bangladeshi, Black African, Black Caribbean and Chinese patients were all significantly more likely than White patients to die in hospital. The results were not substantially altered by recoding the unknown ethnicity group to White or using multiple imputation to assign those with a missing ethnicity an ethnic group. Place of death varies between ethnic groups. This may reflect differences in preferences for place of death or barriers to accessing specialist care in different settings. More detailed prospective qualitative studies are urgently required to determine reasons for this variation.

The future burden of cancer in London compared with England.

BACKGROUND: The future burden of cancer in England is predicted to increase by 33% by 2020. Those planning health services are often interested in predictions at a local level. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer in London and compare this with estimates for England. METHODS: Predictions for London were based on cancer registration data (1985-2003) and population projections up until 2024. The number of future cases and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were projected using an age-period-cohort model developed for the analysis of cancer trends and projections in the Nordic countries. Estimates for England were taken from an earlier publication. RESULTS: In London, ASRs for all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) decreased for both sexes, whereas in England, ASRs decreased in males and increased slightly in females. In London, the number of cases for both sexes is predicted to increase from approximately 27,000 in 2002 to approximately 28,500 in 2022, an increase of 5%. In England, a greater increase is predicted, from approximately 224,000 in 2001 to approximately 299,000 in 2020, an increase of 33%. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of the future burden of cancer are particularly sensitive to demographic population trends. They are likely to be different for cities compared with rural areas or entire countries.

Establishing population-based surveillance of diagnostic timeliness using linked cancer registry and administrative data for patients with colorectal and lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic timeliness in cancer patients is important for clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction but, to-date, continuous monitoring of diagnostic intervals in nationwide incident cohorts has been impossible in England. METHODS: We developed a new methodology for measuring the secondary care diagnostic interval (SCDI - first relevant secondary care contact to diagnosis) using linked cancer registration and healthcare utilisation data. Using this method, we subsequently examined diagnostic timeliness in colorectal and lung cancer patients (2014-15) by socio-demographic characteristics, diagnostic route and stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: The approach assigned SCDIs to 94.4% of all incident colorectal cancer cases [median length (90th centile) of 25 (104) days] and 95.3% of lung cancer cases [36 (144) days]. Advanced stage patients had shorter intervals (median, colorectal: stage 1 vs 4 - 34 vs 19 days; lung stage 1&2 vs 3B&4 - 70 vs 27 days). Routinely referred patients had the longest (colorectal: 61, lung: 69 days) and emergency presenters the shortest intervals (colorectal: 3, lung: 14 days). Comorbidities and additional diagnostic tests were also associated with longer intervals. CONCLUSION: This new method can enable repeatable nationwide measurement of cancer diagnostic timeliness in England and identifies actionable variation to inform early diagnosis interventions and target future research.

Cohort profile: prescriptions dispensed in the community linked to the national cancer registry in England.

PURPOSE: The linked prescriptions cancer registry data resource was set up to extend our understanding of the pathway for patients with cancer past secondary care into the community, to ultimately improve patient outcomes. PARTICIPANTS: The linked prescriptions cancer registry data resource is currently available for April to July 2015, for all patients diagnosed with cancer in England with a dispensed prescription in that time frame.The dispensed prescriptions data are collected by National Health Service (NHS) Prescription Services, and the cancer registry data are processed by Public Health England. All data are routine healthcare data, used for secondary purposes, linked using a pseudonymised version of the patient's NHS number and date of birth.Detailed demographic and clinical information on the type of cancer diagnosed and treatment is collected by the cancer registry. The dispensed prescriptions data contain basic demographic information, geography measures of the dispensed prescription, drug information (quantity, strength and presentation), cost of the drug and the date that the dispensed prescription was submitted to NHS Business Services Authority. FINDINGS TO DATE: Findings include a study of end of life prescribing in the community among patients with cancer, an investigation of repeat prescriptions to derive measures of prior morbidity status in patients with cancer and studies of prescription activity surrounding the date of cancer diagnosis. FUTURE PLANS: This English linked resource could be used for cancer epidemiological studies of diagnostic pathways, health outcomes and inequalities; to establish primary care comorbidity indices and for guideline concordance studies of treatment, particularly hormonal therapy, as a major treatment modality for breast and prostate cancer which has been largely delivered in the community setting for a number of years.

Time and deprivation trends in incidence of primary liver cancer subtypes in England.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Primary liver cancer consists of distinct subtypes with differing aetiology so it is valuable to study the incidence of these subtypes separately. This study aims to investigate time and socio-economic deprivation trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer subtypes in England, identifying the burden in the population. METHODS: Data were extracted from the population-based National Cancer Data Repository (NCDR) for patients diagnosed with primary liver cancer between 1990 and 2009. Subtypes were defined by the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes: liver cell carcinoma (C22.0), intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma (C22.1), other (C22.2-C22.4, C22.7) and unspecified (C22.9). A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the main histological subtypes of liver cell carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct using the 2nd edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-2). Male and female age-standardized incidence rates per 100 000 World standard population were calculated for each year and for the period 1999-2009 by socio-economic deprivation quintile. RESULTS: A total of 40 945 patients were diagnosed with primary liver cancer between 1990 and 2009. Liver cell carcinoma incidence increased in men from 0.63 in 1990 to 2.48 per 100 000 in 2009. While incidence was low in women, rates increased from 0.18 to 0.59, respectively. Intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma incidence increased between 1990 and 2009 from 0.40 to 1.25 per 100 000 in men, and from 0.28 to 1.08 in women. Incidence of the other liver cancer subtype remained low throughout the study period at less than 0.3 per 100 000 in each year in both men and women. The highest rate of liver cell carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma was generally in men and women resident in the most deprived areas between 1999 and 2009. The largest difference by deprivation quintile was observed for liver cell carcinoma in men, where the incidence was more than double in the most deprived quintile with an average rate of 3.56 per 100 000 compared to the least deprived quintile at 1.43. CONCLUSIONS: Liver cell carcinoma and intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma incidence increased between 1990 and 2009 in both sexes. This pattern was largely driven by patients living in the most deprived areas. Differences observed may be due to the variation in the prevalence of known risk factors such as chronic hepatitis B and C viral infections and excessive alcohol consumption.

Differences in breast cancer hormone receptor status in ethnic groups: a London population.

BACKGROUND: Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is associated with different ethnic groups in the United States (US), however this has not previously been examined in a population-based study within the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Electronic pathology reports from the North East London Cancer Network (NELCN) on women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2007 were collated. The statuses of oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and HER-2 were extracted. Women were classified as having TNBC if all three receptor statuses were negative, and as not having TNBC if at least one receptor was positive or borderline. Logistic regression was used to quantify the association between TNBC and ethnicity, adjusting for age, year of diagnosis and socioeconomic deprivation. Overall survival in different ethnic groups was examined using Cox regression, adjusting as appropriate for age, stage of disease, triple negative status, year of diagnosis, socioeconomic deprivation and recorded treatment. RESULTS: There were 2417 women resident in NELCN diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2007, and TNBC status was determined for 1228 (51%) women. Overall, of women who had their TNBC status determined, 128 (10%) were diagnosed with TNBC. Compared with White women, Black (odds ratio [OR]=2.81, p<0.001) and South Asian (OR=1.80, p=0.044) women with breast cancer were more likely to have TNBC. Black women had a worse age-adjusted survival than White women (hazard ratio [HR]=2.05, p<0.001). This was attenuated by further adjustment for stage of disease (1.52, p=0.032) and triple negative status (1.31, p=0.175). CONCLUSION: Better methods of early detection may need to be developed in addition to more effective systemic treatment in order to improve outcomes for women with TNBC.

Predictive value of dysplasia grading and DNA ploidy in malignant transformation of oral potentially malignant disorders.

Dysplasia grading is widely used to assess risk of transformation in oral potentially malignant disorders despite limited data on predictive value. DNA ploidy analysis has been proposed as an alternative. This study examines the prognostic value for both tests used in a routine diagnostic setting to inform clinical management. A retrospective study of conventional dysplasia grading was conducted on 1,401 patients. DNA ploidy analysis was conducted on a subset of 273 patients and results correlated with clinical information, pathologic diagnosis, and outcome over 5 to 15 years. Malignant transformation occurred in 32 of 273 patients (12%) and, of these, 20 (63%) of preexisting index lesions were aneuploid. Of 241 patients not developing carcinoma, only 39 (16%) of index lesions were aneuploid. Epithelial dysplasia correlated with DNA ploidy status (P < 0.001). The overall positive predictive value for malignant transformation by DNA aneuploidy was 38.5% (sensitivity 65.2% and specificity 75%) and by severe dysplasia grade 39.5% (sensitivity 30% and specificity 98%). DNA diploid and tetraploid status had negative predictive value of 90% to 96%. Combining DNA ploidy analysis with dysplasia grading gives a higher predictive value than either technique alone. Each of three traditional dysplasia grades predicts a significantly different risk of carcinoma development and time to transformation. DNA ploidy analysis had equivalent predictive value and also detected additional risk lesions in the absence of dysplasia.

Primary liver cancer incidence and survival in ethnic groups in England, 2001-2007.

BACKGROUND: The patterns of primary liver cancer incidence and survival are not known for detailed ethnic groups within the UK. METHODS: Data on patients resident in England diagnosed with primary liver cancer (ICD-10 C22) between 2001 and 2007 were extracted from the National Cancer Data Repository. Age-standardised incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for different ethnic groups separately for males and females, using the White ethnic groups as baselines. Overall survival was analysed using Cox regression, adjusting sequentially for age, socioeconomic deprivation and co-morbidity. RESULTS: Ethnicity data were available for 75% (13,139/17,458) of primary liver cancer patients. Compared with the White male baseline, Chinese males had the highest IRR. Black African, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Indian men also had statistically significant high IRRs. Black Caribbean men had a marginally elevated incidence rate compared with White men. In comparison with White women, Pakistani women had the highest IRR. Bangladeshi, Chinese, Black African and Indian women also had high IRRs. As observed in men, Black Caribbean women had an incidence rate closer to that of White women. Pakistani men and women, Black African women and Chinese men had statistically significantly better survival compared with their White counterparts. CONCLUSION: The variation found in the incidence of primary liver cancer, could be due to established risk factors such as hepatitis B and C infection being more prevalent among certain ethnic groups. Country of birth, age at migration and length of stay in England are likely to be important factors in this disease, and future research should examine these where possible.

High procedure volume is strongly associated with improved survival after lung cancer surgery.

PURPOSE: Studies have reported an association between hospital volume and survival for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We explored this association in England, accounting for case mix and propensity to resect. METHODS: We analyzed data on 134,293 patients with NSCLC diagnosed in England between 2004 and 2008, of whom 12,862 (9.6%) underwent surgical resection. Hospital volume was defined according to number of patients with resected lung cancer in each hospital in each year of diagnosis. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for death in three predefined periods according to hospital volume, sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity, and propensity to resect. RESULTS: There was increased survival in hospitals performing > 150 surgical resections compared with those carrying out < 70 (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.90; Ptrend < .01). The association between hospital volume and survival was present in all three periods of follow-up, but the magnitude of association was greatest in the early postoperative period. CONCLUSION: High-volume hospitals have higher resection rates and perform surgery among patients who are older, have lower socioeconomic status, and have more comorbidities; despite this, they achieve better survival, most notably in the early postoperative period.