Synthesizing environmental, epidemiological and vector and parasite genetic data to assist decision making for disease elimination.

We present a framework for identifying when conditions are favourable for transmission of vector-borne diseases between communities by incorporating predicted disease prevalence mapping with landscape analysis of sociological, environmental and host/parasite genetic data. We explored the relationship between environmental features and gene flow of a filarial parasite of humans, Onchocerca volvulus, and its vector, blackflies in the genus Simulium. We generated a baseline microfilarial prevalence map from point estimates from 47 locations in the ecological transition separating the savannah and forest in Ghana, where transmission of O. volvulus persists despite onchocerciasis control efforts. We generated movement suitability maps based on environmental correlates with mitochondrial population structure of 164 parasites from 15 communities and 93 vectors from only four sampling sites, and compared these to the baseline prevalence map. Parasite genetic distance between sampling locations was significantly associated with elevation (r = .793, p = .005) and soil moisture (r = .507, p = .002), while vector genetic distance was associated with soil moisture (r = .788, p = .0417) and precipitation (r = .835, p = .0417). The correlation between baseline prevalence and parasite resistance surface maps was stronger than that between prevalence and vector resistance surface maps. The centre of the study area had high prevalence and suitability for parasite and vector gene flow, potentially contributing to persistent transmission and suggesting the importance of re-evaluating transmission zone boundaries. With suitably dense sampling, this framework can help delineate transmission zones for onchocerciasis and would be translatable to other vector-borne diseases.

Genome-based tools for onchocerciasis elimination: utility of the mitochondrial genome for delineating Onchocerca volvulus transmission zones.

National programs in Africa have expanded their objectives from control of onchocerciasis (river blindness) as a public health problem to elimination of parasite transmission, motivated by the reduction of Onchocerca volvulus infection prevalence in many African meso- and hyperendemic areas due to mass drug administration of ivermectin (MDAi). Given the large, contiguous hypo-, meso-, and hyperendemic areas, sustainable elimination of onchocerciasis in sub-Saharan Africa requires delineation of geographic boundaries for parasite transmission zones, so that programs can consider the risk of parasite re-introduction through vector or human migration from areas with ongoing transmission when making decisions to stop MDAi. We propose that transmission zone boundaries can be delineated by characterising the parasite genetic population structure within and between potential zones. We analysed whole mitochondrial genome sequences of 189 O. volvulus adults to determine the pattern of genetic similarity across three West African countries: Ghana, Mali, and Côte d'Ivoire. Population genetic structure indicates that parasites from villages near the Pru, Daka, and Black Volta rivers in central Ghana belong to one parasite population, indicating that the assumption that river basins constitute individual transmission zones is not supported by the data. Parasites from Mali and Côte d'Ivoire are genetically distinct from those from Ghana. This research provides the basis for developing tools for elimination programs to delineate transmission zones, to estimate the risk of parasite re-introduction via vector or human movement when intervention is stopped in one area while transmission is ongoing in others, to identify the origin of infections detected post-treatment cessation, and to investigate whether persisting prevalence despite ongoing interventions in one area is due to parasites imported from others.

Genomic Epidemiology in Filarial Nematodes: Transforming the Basis for Elimination Program Decisions.

Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis are targeted for elimination, primarily using mass drug administration at the country and community levels. Elimination of transmission is the onchocerciasis target and global elimination as a public health problem is the end point for lymphatic filariasis. Where program duration, treatment coverage, and compliance are sufficiently high, elimination is achievable for both parasites within defined geographic areas. However, transmission has re-emerged after apparent elimination in some areas, and in others has continued despite years of mass drug treatment. A critical question is whether this re-emergence and/or persistence of transmission is due to persistence of local parasites-i.e., the result of insufficient duration or drug coverage, poor parasite response to the drugs, or inadequate methods of assessment and/or criteria for determining when to stop treatment-or due to re-introduction of parasites via human or vector movement from another endemic area. We review recent genetics-based research exploring these questions in Onchocerca volvulus, the filarial nematode that causes onchocerciasis, and Wuchereria bancrofti, the major pathogen for lymphatic filariasis. We focus in particular on the combination of genomic epidemiology and genome-wide associations to delineate transmission zones and distinguish between local and introduced parasites as the source of resurgence or continuing transmission, and to identify genetic markers associated with parasite response to chemotherapy. Our ultimate goal is to assist elimination efforts by developing easy-to-use tools that incorporate genetic information about transmission and drug response for more effective mass drug distribution, surveillance strategies, and decisions on when to stop interventions to improve sustainability of elimination.