Immunological feedback loops generate parasite persistence thresholds that explain variation in infection duration.

Infection duration affects individual host fitness and between-host transmission. Whether an infection is cleared or becomes chronic depends on the complex interaction between host immune responses and parasite growth. Empirical and theoretical studies have suggested that there are critical thresholds of parasite dose that can determine clearance versus chronicity, driven by the ability of the parasite to manipulate host immunity. However, the mammalian immune response is characterized by strong positive and negative feedback loops that could generate duration thresholds even in the absence of direct immunomodulation. Here, we derive and analyse a simple model for the interaction between T-cell subpopulations and parasite growth. We show that whether an infection is cleared or not is very sensitive to the initial immune state, parasite dose and strength of immunological feedbacks. In particular, chronic infections are possible even when parasites provoke a strong and effective immune response and lack any ability to immunomodulate. Our findings indicate that the initial immune state, which often goes unmeasured in empirical studies, is a critical determinant of infection duration. This work also has implications for epidemiological models, as it implies that infection duration will be highly variable among individuals, and dependent on each individual's infection history.

Predation shifts coevolution toward higher host contact rate and parasite virulence.

Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator-host-parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy-Gyrodactylus spp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites.

Parasite resource manipulation drives bimodal variation in infection duration.

Over a billion people on earth are infected with helminth parasites and show remarkable variation in parasite burden and chronicity. These parasite distributions are captured well by classic statistics, such as the negative binomial distribution. But the within-host processes underlying this variation are not well understood. In this study, we explain variation in macroparasite infection outcomes on the basis of resource flows within hosts. Resource flows realize the interactions between parasites and host immunity and metabolism. When host metabolism is modulated by parasites, we find a positive feedback of parasites on their own resources. While this positive feedback results in parasites improving their resource availability at high burdens, giving rise to chronic infections, it also results in a threshold biomass required for parasites to establish in the host, giving rise to acute infections when biomass fails to clear the threshold. Our finding of chronic and acute outcomes in bistability contrasts with classic theory, yet is congruent with the variation in helminth burdens observed in human and wildlife populations.

Phenotypically plastic responses to predation risk are temperature dependent.

Predicting how organisms respond to climate change requires that we understand the temperature dependence of fitness in relevant ecological contexts (e.g., with or without predation risk). Predation risk often induces changes to life history traits that are themselves temperature dependent. We explore how perceived predation risk and temperature interact to determine fitness (indicated by the intrinsic rate of increase, r) through changes to its underlying components (net reproductive rate, generation time, and survival) in Daphnia magna. We exposed Daphnia to predation cues from dragonfly naiads early, late, or throughout their ontogeny. Predation risk increased r differentially across temperatures and depending on the timing of exposure to predation cues. The timing of predation risk likewise altered the temperature-dependent response of T and R0. Daphnia at hotter temperatures responded to predation risk by increasing r through a combination of increased R0 and decreased T that together countered an increase in mortality rate. However, only D. magna that experienced predation cues early in ontogeny showed elevated r at colder temperatures. These results highlight the fact that phenotypically plastic responses of life history traits to predation risk can be strongly temperature dependent.

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Detecting Adaptive Evolution in Phylogenetic Comparative Analysis Using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Model.

Phylogenetic comparative analysis is an approach to inferring evolutionary process from a combination of phylogenetic and phenotypic data. The last few years have seen increasingly sophisticated models employed in the evaluation of more and more detailed evolutionary hypotheses, including adaptive hypotheses with multiple selective optima and hypotheses with rate variation within and across lineages. The statistical performance of these sophisticated models has received relatively little systematic attention, however. We conducted an extensive simulation study to quantify the statistical properties of a class of models toward the simpler end of the spectrum that model phenotypic evolution using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We focused on identifying where, how, and why these methods break down so that users can apply them with greater understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Our analysis identifies three key determinants of performance: a discriminability ratio, a signal-to-noise ratio, and the number of taxa sampled. Interestingly, we find that model-selection power can be high even in regions that were previously thought to be difficult, such as when tree size is small. On the other hand, we find that model parameters are in many circumstances difficult to estimate accurately, indicating a relative paucity of information in the data relative to these parameters. Nevertheless, we note that accurate model selection is often possible when parameters are only weakly identified. Our results have implications for more sophisticated methods inasmuch as the latter are generalizations of the case we study.

The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests.

Why is it that some parasites cause high levels of host damage (i.e. virulence) whereas others are relatively benign? There are now numerous reviews of virulence evolution in the literature but it is nevertheless still difficult to find a comprehensive treatment of the theory and data on the subject that is easily accessible to non-specialists. Here we attempt to do so by distilling the vast theoretical literature on the topic into a set of relatively few robust predictions. We then provide a comprehensive assessment of the available empirical literature that tests these predictions. Our results show that there have been some notable successes in integrating theory and data but also that theory and empiricism in this field do not 'speak' to each other very well. We offer a few suggestions for how the connection between the two might be improved.

Evolution of hosts paying manifold costs of defence.

Hosts are expected to incur several physiological costs in defending against parasites. These include constitutive energetic (or other resource) costs of a defence system, facultative resource costs of deploying defences when parasites strike, and immunopathological costs of collateral damage. Here, we investigate the evolution of host recovery rates, varying the source and magnitude of immune costs. In line with previous work, we find that hosts paying facultative resource costs evolve faster recovery rates than hosts paying constitutive costs. However, recovery rate is more sensitive to changes in facultative costs, potentially explaining why constitutive costs are hard to detect empirically. Moreover, we find that immunopathology costs which increase with recovery rate can erode the benefits of defence, promoting chronicity of infection. Immunopathology can also lead to hosts evolving low recovery rate in response to virulent parasites. Furthermore, when immunopathology reduces fecundity as recovery rate increases (e.g. as for T-cell responses to urogenital chlamydiosis), then recovery and reproductive rates do not covary as predicted in eco-immunology. These results suggest that immunopathological and resource costs have qualitatively different effects on host evolution and that embracing the complexity of immune costs may be essential for explaining variability in immune defence in nature.

Disentangling the interaction among host resources, the immune system and pathogens.

The interaction between the immune system and pathogens is often characterised as a predator-prey interaction. This characterisation ignores the fact that both require host resources to reproduce. Here, we propose novel theory that considers how these resource requirements can modify the interaction between the immune system and pathogens. We derive a series of models to describe the energetic interaction between the immune system and pathogens, from fully independent resources to direct competition for the same resource. We show that increasing within-host resource supply has qualitatively distinct effects under these different scenarios. In particular, we show the conditions for which pathogen load is expected to increase, decrease or even peak at intermediate resource supply. We survey the empirical literature and find evidence for all three patterns. These patterns are not explained by previous theory, suggesting that competition for host resources can have a strong influence on the outcome of disease.

Starvation reveals the cause of infection-induced castration and gigantism.

Parasites often induce life-history changes in their hosts. In many cases, these infection-induced life-history changes are driven by changes in the pattern of energy allocation and utilization within the host. Because these processes will affect both host and parasite fitness, it can be challenging to determine who benefits from them. Determining the causes and consequences of infection-induced life-history changes requires the ability to experimentally manipulate life history and a framework for connecting life history to host and parasite fitness. Here, we combine a novel starvation manipulation with energy budget models to provide new insights into castration and gigantism in the Daphnia magna-Pasteuria ramosa host-parasite system. Our results show that starvation primarily affects investment in reproduction, and increasing starvation stress reduces gigantism and parasite fitness without affecting castration. These results are consistent with an energetic structure where the parasite uses growth energy as a resource. This finding gives us new understanding of the role of castration and gigantism in this system, and how life-history variation will affect infection outcome and epidemiological dynamics. The approach of combining targeted life-history manipulations with energy budget models can be adapted to understand life-history changes in other disease systems.

Links between Innate and Adaptive Immunity Can Favor Evolutionary Persistence of Immunopathology.

Immunopathology, or the harm caused to an organism's own tissues during the activation of its immune system, carries substantial costs. Moreover, avoiding this self-harm may be an important mechanism underlying tolerance of infection, helping to reducing fitness costs without necessarily clearing parasites. Despite the apparent benefits of minimizing immunopathology, such damage persists across a range of host species. Prior work has explored a trade-off with resistance during a single infection as a potential driver of this persistence, with some collateral damage being unavoidable when killing parasites. Here, we present an additional trade-off that could favor the continued presence of immunopathology: robust immune responses during initial infection (e.g., innate immunity in vertebrates) can induce stronger memory (adaptive immunity), offering protection from future infections. We explore this possibility in an adaptive dynamics framework, using theoretical models parameterized from an ecologically relevant host-parasite system, house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) infected with the bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum. We find that some degree of immunopathology is often favored when immunopathology during first infection either reduces susceptibility to or enhances recovery from second infection. Further, interactions among factors like transmission rate, recovery rate, background mortality, and pathogen virulence also shape these evolutionary dynamics. Most notably, the evolutionary stability of investment in immunopathology is highly dependent upon the mechanism by which hosts achieve secondary protection (susceptibility vs. recovery), with the potential for abrupt evolutionary shifts between high and low investment under certain conditions. These results highlight the potential for immune memory to play an important role in the evolutionary persistence of immunopathology and the need for future empirical research to reveal the links between immunopathology during initial infections and longer-term immune protection.

Stochasticity directs adaptive evolution toward nonequilibrium evolutionary attractors.

Stochastic processes such as genetic drift may hinder adaptation, but the effect of such stochasticity on evolution via its effect on ecological dynamics is poorly understood. Here we evaluate patterns of adaptation in a population subject to variation in demographic stochasticity. We show that stochasticity can alter population dynamics and lead to evolutionary outcomes that are not predicted by classic eco-evolutionary modeling approaches. We also show, however, that these outcomes are governed by nonequilibrium evolutionary attractors-these are maxima in lifetime reproductive success when stochasticity keeps the ecological system away from the deterministic equilibrium. These NEEAs alter the path of evolution but are not visible through the equilibrium lens that underlies much evolutionary theory. Our results reveal that considering population processes during transient periods can greatly improve our understanding of the path and pace of evolution.

Evidence for a Causal Role for Escherichia coli Strains Identified as Adherent-Invasive (AIEC) in Intestinal Inflammation.

Enrichment of adherent-invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) has been consistently detected in subsets of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Although some AIEC strains cause colitis in animal models, these studies did not systematically compare AIEC with non-AIEC strains, and causal links between AIEC and disease are still disputed. Specifically, it remains unclear whether AIEC shows enhanced pathogenicity compared to that of commensal E. coli found in the same ecological microhabitat and if the in vitro phenotypes used to classify strains as AIEC are pathologically relevant. Here, we utilized in vitro phenotyping and a murine model of intestinal inflammation to systematically compare strains identified as AIEC with those identified as non-AIEC and relate AIEC phenotypes to pathogenicity. Strains identified as AIEC caused, on average, more severe intestinal inflammation. Intracellular survival/replication phenotypes routinely used to classify AIEC positively correlated with disease, while adherence to epithelial cells and tumor necrosis factor alpha production by macrophages did not. This knowledge was then applied to design and test a strategy to prevent inflammation by selecting E. coli strains that adhered to epithelial cells but poorly survived/replicated intracellularly. Two E. coli strains that ameliorated AIEC-mediated disease were subsequently identified. In summary, our results show a relationship between intracellular survival/replication in E. coli and pathology in murine colitis, suggesting that strains possessing these phenotypes might not only become enriched in human IBD but also contribute to disease. We provide new evidence that specific AIEC phenotypes are pathologically relevant and proof of principle that such mechanistic information can be therapeutically exploited to alleviate intestinal inflammation. IMPORTANCE Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with an altered gut microbiota composition, including expansion of Proteobacteria. Many species in this phylum are thought to contribute to disease under certain conditions, including adherent-invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) strains, which are enriched in some patients. However, whether this bloom contributes to disease or is just a response to IBD-associated physiological changes is unknown. Although assigning causality is challenging, appropriate animal models can test the hypothesis that AIEC strains have an enhanced ability to cause colitis in comparison to other gut commensal E. coli strains and to identify bacterial traits contributing to virulence. We observed that AIEC strains are generally more pathogenic than commensal E. coli and that bacterial intracellular survival/replication phenotypes contributed to disease. We also found that E. coli strains lacking primary virulence traits can prevent inflammation. Our findings provide critical information on E. coli pathogenicity that may inform development of IBD diagnostic tools and therapies.

Daily feeding rhythm linked to microbiome composition in two zooplankton species.

Host-associated microbial communities are impacted by external and within-host factors, i.e., diet and feeding behavior. For organisms known to have a circadian rhythm in feeding behavior, microbiome composition is likely impacted by the different rates of microbe introduction and removal across a daily cycle, in addition to any diet-induced changes in microbial interactions. Here, we measured feeding behavior and used 16S rRNA sequencing to compare the microbial community across a diel cycle in two distantly related species of Daphnia, that differ in their life history traits, to assess how daily feeding patterns impact microbiome composition. We find that Daphnia species reared under similar laboratory conditions have significantly different microbial communities. Additionally, we reveal that Daphnia have daily differences in their microbial composition that correspond with feeding behavior, such that there is greater microbiome diversity at night during the host's active feeding phase. These results highlight that zooplankton microbiomes are relatively distinct and are likely influenced by host phylogeny.

Multiple generations of antibiotic exposure and isolation influence host fitness and the microbiome in a model zooplankton species.

Chronic antibiotic exposure impacts host health through changes to the microbiome. The detrimental effects of antibiotic perturbation on microbiome structure and function after one host generation of exposure have been well-studied, but less is understood about multigenerational effects of antibiotic exposure and subsequent recovery. In this study, we examined microbiome composition and host fitness across five generations of exposure to antibiotics in the model zooplankton host Daphnia magna. By utilizing a split-brood design where half of the offspring from antibiotic-exposed parents were allowed to recover and half were maintained in antibiotics, we examined recovery and resilience of the microbiome. Unexpectedly, we discovered that isolation of single host individuals across generations exerted a strong effect on microbiome composition, with microbiome diversity decreasing over generations regardless of treatment, while host body size and cumulative reproduction increased across generations. Though antibiotics did cause substantial changes to microbiome composition within a generation, recovery generally occurred in one generation regardless of the number of prior generations spent in antibiotics. Our results demonstrate that isolation of individual hosts leads to stochastic extinction of less abundant taxa in the microbiome, suggesting that these taxa are likely maintained via transmission in host populations.

Circadian rhythms mediate infection risk in Daphnia dentifera.

Biological rhythms mediate important within-host processes such as metabolism, immunity, and behavior which are often linked to combating disease exposure. For many hosts, exposure to pathogens occurs while feeding. However, the link between feeding rhythms and infection risk is unclear because feeding behavior is tightly coupled with immune and metabolic processes which may decrease susceptibility to infection. Here, we use the Daphnia dentifera-Metschnikowia bicuspidata host-pathogen system to determine how rhythms in feeding rate and immune function mediate infection risk. The host is known to have a nocturnal circadian rhythm in feeding rate, yet we found that they do not exhibit a circadian rhythm in phenoloxidase activity. We found that the time of day when individuals are exposed to pathogens affects the probability of infection with higher infection prevalence at night, indicating that infection risk is driven by a host's circadian rhythm in feeding behavior. These results suggest that the natural circadian rhythm of the host should be considered when addressing epidemiological dynamics.

Shoaling guppies evade predation but have deadlier parasites.

Parasites exploit hosts to replicate and transmit, but overexploitation kills both host and parasite. Predators may shift this cost-benefit balance by consuming infected hosts or changing host behaviour, but the strength of these effects remains unclear. Here we use field and lab data on Trinidadian guppies and their Gyrodactylus spp. parasites to show how differential predation pressure influences parasite virulence and transmission. We use an experimentally demonstrated virulence-transmission trade-off to parametrize a mathematical model in which host shoaling (as a means of anti-predator defence), increases contact rates and selects for higher virulence. Then we validate model predictions by collecting parasites from wild, Trinidadian populations; parasites from high-predation populations were more virulent in common gardens than those from low-predation populations. Broadly, our results indicate that reduced social contact selects against parasite virulence.

Targeted Manipulation of Abundant and Rare Taxa in the Daphnia magna Microbiota with Antibiotics Impacts Host Fitness Differentially.

Host-associated microbes contribute to host fitness, but it is unclear whether these contributions are from rare keystone taxa, numerically abundant taxa, or interactions among community members. Experimental perturbation of the microbiota can highlight functionally important taxa; however, this approach is primarily applied in systems with complex communities where the perturbation affects hundreds of taxa, making it difficult to pinpoint contributions of key community members. Here, we use the ecological model organism Daphnia magna to examine the importance of rare and abundant taxa by perturbing its relatively simple microbiota with targeted antibiotics. We used sublethal antibiotic doses to target either rare or abundant members across two temperatures and then measured key host life history metrics and shifts in microbial community composition. We find that removal of abundant taxa had greater impacts on host fitness than did removal of rare taxa and that the abundances of nontarget taxa were impacted by antibiotic treatment, suggesting that no rare keystone taxa exist in the Daphnia magna microbiota but that microbe-microbe interactions may play a role in host fitness. We also find that microbial community composition was impacted by antibiotics differently across temperatures, indicating that ecological context shapes within-host microbial responses and effects on host fitness.IMPORTANCE Understanding the contributions of rare and abundant taxa to host fitness is an outstanding question in host microbial ecology. In this study, we use the model zooplankton Daphnia magna and its relatively simple cohort of bacterial taxa to disentangle the roles of distinct taxa in host life history metrics, using a suite of antibiotics to selectively reduce the abundance of functionally important taxa. We also examine how environmental context shapes the importance of these bacterial taxa in host fitness.

Circadian Rhythm in Feeding Behavior of Daphnia dentifera.

Circadian rhythms enable organisms to mediate their molecular and physiological processes with changes in their environment. Although feeding behavior directly affects within-organism processes, there are few examples of a circadian rhythm in this key behavior. Here, we show that Daphnia have a nocturnal circadian rhythm in feeding behavior that corresponds with their diel vertical migration (DVM), an important life history strategy for predator and UV avoidance. In addition, this feeding rhythm appears to be temperature compensated, which suggests that feeding behavior is robust to seasonal changes in water temperature. A circadian rhythm in feeding behavior can impact energetically demanding processes like metabolism and immunity, which may have drastic effects on susceptibility to disease, starvation risk, and ultimately, fitness.

Identifying co-phylogenetic hotspots for zoonotic disease.

The incidence of zoonotic diseases is increasing worldwide, which makes identifying parasites likely to become zoonotic and hosts likely to harbour zoonotic parasites a critical concern. Prior work indicates that there is a higher risk of zoonotic spillover accruing from closely related hosts and from hosts that are infected with a high phylogenetic diversity of parasites. This suggests that host and parasite evolutionary history may be important drivers of spillover, but identifying whether host-parasite associations are more strongly structured by the host, parasite or both requires co-phylogenetic analyses that combine host-parasite association data with host and parasite phylogenies. Here, we use host-parasite datasets containing associations between helminth taxa and free-range mammals in combination with phylogenetic models to explore whether host, parasite, or both host and parasite evolutionary history influences host-parasite associations. We find that host phylogenetic history is most important for driving patterns of helminth-mammal association, indicating that zoonoses are most likely to come from a host's close relatives. More broadly, our results suggest that co-phylogenetic analyses across broad taxonomic scales can provide a novel perspective for surveying potential emerging infectious diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.