Determinants of patient-reported outcome trajectories and symptomatic recovery in Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence for the general effectiveness of psychological therapies, there exists substantial heterogeneity in patient outcomes. We aimed to identify factors associated with baseline severity of depression and anxiety symptoms, rate of symptomatic change over the course of therapy, and symptomatic recovery in a primary mental health care setting. METHODS: Using data from a service evaluation involving 35 527 patients in England's psychological and wellbeing [Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT)] services, we applied latent growth models to explore which routinely-collected sociodemographic, clinical, and therapeutic variables were associated with baseline symptom severity and rate of symptomatic change. We used a multilevel logit model to determine variables associated with symptomatic recovery. RESULTS: Being female, younger, more functionally impaired, and more socioeconomically disadvantaged was associated with higher baseline severity of both depression and anxiety symptoms. Being older, less functionally impaired, and having more severe baseline symptomatology was associated with more rapid improvement of both depression and anxiety symptoms (male gender and greater socioeconomic disadvantage were further associated with rate of change for depression only). Therapy intensity and appointment frequency seemed to have no correlation with rate of symptomatic improvement. Patients with lower baseline symptom severity, less functional impairment, and older age had a greater likelihood of achieving symptomatic recovery (as defined by IAPT criteria). CONCLUSIONS: We must continue to investigate how best to tailor psychotherapeutic interventions to fit patients' needs. Patients who begin therapy with more severe depression and/or anxiety symptoms and poorer functioning merit special attention, as these characteristics may negatively impact recovery.

An item response theory analysis of an item pool for the recovering quality of life (ReQoL) measure.

PURPOSE: ReQoL-10 and ReQoL-20 have been developed for use as outcome measures with individuals aged 16 and over, experiencing mental health difficulties. This paper reports modelling results from the item response theory (IRT) analyses that were used for item reduction. METHODS: From several stages of preparatory work including focus groups and a previous psychometric survey, a pool of items was developed. After confirming that the ReQoL item pool was sufficiently unidimensional for scoring, IRT model parameters were estimated using Samejima's Graded Response Model (GRM). All 39 mental health items were evaluated with respect to item fit and differential item function regarding age, gender, ethnicity, and diagnosis. Scales were evaluated regarding overall measurement precision and known-groups validity (by care setting type and self-rating of overall mental health). RESULTS: The study recruited 4266 participants with a wide range of mental health diagnoses from multiple settings. The IRT parameters demonstrated excellent coverage of the latent construct with the centres of item information functions ranging from - 0.98 to 0.21 and with discrimination slope parameters from 1.4 to 3.6. We identified only two poorly fitting items and no evidence of differential item functioning of concern. Scales showed excellent measurement precision and known-groups validity. CONCLUSION: The results from the IRT analyses confirm the robust structure properties and internal construct validity of the ReQoL instruments. The strong psychometric evidence generated guided item selection for the final versions of the ReQoL measures.

Diagnostic stability and outcome after first episode psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia are often assigned other psychiatric diagnoses during their lives. The significance of changing diagnosis has not been widely studied. AIMS: Our aim was to examine the association between diagnostic change and later outcome. METHODS: Individuals' diagnostic history, clinical and social outcomes were extracted from the AESOP-10 study, a 10-year follow-up of first episode psychosis cases. The association between outcome and different patterns of diagnosis over time were assessed using linear or logistic regression. RESULTS: Individuals always diagnosed with schizophrenia (n = 136) had worse clinical and social outcomes at follow-up than those never diagnosed with schizophrenia (n = 163), being more likely to be symptomatic, unemployed, single, and socially isolated. There was no difference in outcome between individuals always diagnosed with schizophrenia and those changing to a diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 60), and no difference in outcome between individuals never diagnosed with schizophrenia, and those changing from a diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 44). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals always and never diagnosed with schizophrenia had different outcomes. In cases of diagnostic instability participants had similar outcomes to those always assigned the diagnosis they changed to irrespective of initial diagnosis.

Symptom remission at 12-weeks strongly predicts long-term recovery from the first episode of psychosis.

BACKGROUND: To determine the baseline individual characteristics that predicted symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-years following the first episode of psychosis. METHODS: AESOP-10 is a 10-year follow up of an epidemiological, naturalistic population-based cohort of individuals recruited at the time of their first episode of psychosis in two areas in the UK (South East London and Nottingham). Detailed information on demographic, clinical, and social factors was examined to identify which factors predicted symptom and functional remission and recovery over 10-year follow-up. The study included 557 individuals with a first episode psychosis. The main study outcomes were symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-year follow-up. RESULTS: At 10 years, 46.2% (n = 140 of 303) of patients achieved symptom recovery and 40.9% (n = 117) achieved functional recovery. The strongest predictor of symptom recovery at 10 years was symptom remission at 12 weeks (adj OR 4.47; CI 2.60-7.67); followed by a diagnosis of depression with psychotic symptoms (adj OR 2.68; CI 1.02-7.05). Symptom remission at 12 weeks was also a strong predictor of functional recovery at 10 years (adj OR 2.75; CI 1.23-6.11), together with being from Nottingham study centre (adj OR 3.23; CI 1.25-8.30) and having a diagnosis of mania (adj OR 8.17; CI 1.61-41.42). CONCLUSIONS: Symptom remission at 12 weeks is an important predictor of both symptom and functional recovery at 10 years, with implications for illness management. The concepts of clinical and functional recovery overlap but should be considered separately.

Exploring the item sets of the Recovering Quality of Life (ReQoL) measures using factor analysis.

PURPOSE: This paper presents two studies exploring the latent structure of item sets used in the development of the Recovering Quality of Life mental health outcome measures: ReQoL-10 and ReQoL-20. METHOD: In study 1, 2262 participants completed an initial set of 61 items. In study 2, 4266 participants completed a reduced set of 40 items. Study 2 evaluated two formats of the questionnaires: one version where the items were intermingled and one where the positively worded and negatively worded items were presented as two separate blocks. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on both datasets where models were specified using ordinal treatment of the item responses. Dimensionality based on the conceptual framework and methods effects reflecting the mixture of positively worded and negatively worded items were explored. Factor invariance was tested across the intermingled and block formats. RESULTS: In both studies, a bi-factor model (study 1: RMSEA = 0.061; CFI = 0.954; study 2: RMSEA = 0.066; CFI = 0.971) with one general factor and two local factors (positively worded questions and negatively worded questions) was preferred. The loadings on the general factor were higher than on the two local factors suggesting that the ReQoL scale scores can be understood in terms of a general factor. Insignificant differences were found between the intermingled and block formats. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses confirmed that the ReQoL item sets are sufficiently unidimensional to proceed to item response theory analysis. The model was robust across different ordering of positive and negative items.

Recovering Quality of Life (ReQoL): a new generic self-reported outcome measure for use with people experiencing mental health difficulties.

BACKGROUND: Outcome measures for mental health services need to adopt a service-user recovery focus. Aims To develop and validate a 10- and 20-item self-report recovery-focused quality of life outcome measure named Recovering Quality of Life (ReQoL). METHOD: Qualitative methods for item development and initial testing, and quantitative methods for item reduction and scale construction were used. Data from >6500 service users were factor analysed and item response theory models employed to inform item selection. The measures were tested for reliability, validity and responsiveness. RESULTS: ReQoL-10 and ReQoL-20 contain positively and negatively worded items covering seven themes: activity, hope, belonging and relationships, self-perception, well-being, autonomy, and physical health. Both versions achieved acceptable internal consistency, test-retest reliability (>0.85), known-group differences, convergence with related measures, and were responsive over time (standardised response mean (SRM) > 0.4). They performed marginally better than the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale and markedly better than the EQ-5D. CONCLUSIONS: Both versions are appropriate for measuring service-user recovery-focused quality of life outcomes. Declaration of interest M.B. and J.Co. were members of the research group that developed the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation (CORE) outcome measures.

Ethnicity and long-term course and outcome of psychotic disorders in a UK sample: the ÆSOP-10 study.

BackgroundThe incidence of psychotic disorders is elevated in some minority ethnic populations. However, we know little about the outcome of psychoses in these populations.AimsTo investigate patterns and determinants of long-term course and outcome of psychoses by ethnic group following a first episode.MethodÆSOP-10 is a 10-year follow-up of an ethnically diverse cohort of 532 individuals with first-episode psychosis identified in the UK. Information was collected, at baseline, on clinical presentation and neurodevelopmental and social factors and, at follow-up, on course and outcome.ResultsThere was evidence that, compared with White British, Black Caribbean patients experienced worse clinical, social and service use outcomes and Black African patients experienced worse social and service use outcomes. There was evidence that baseline social disadvantage contributed to these disparities.ConclusionsThese findings suggest ethnic disparities in the incidence of psychoses extend, for some groups, to worse outcomes in multiple domains.

Calibrating well-being, quality of life and common mental disorder items: psychometric epidemiology in public mental health research.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of 'general health and well-being' in public mental health research stimulates debates around relative merits of questionnaire instruments and their items. Little evidence regarding alignment or differential advantages of instruments or items has appeared to date. AIMS: Population-based psychometric study of items employed in public mental health narratives. METHOD: Multidimensional item response theory was applied to General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS) and EQ-5D items (Health Survey for England, 2010-2012; n = 19 290). RESULTS: A bifactor model provided the best account of the data and showed that the GHQ-12 and WEMWBS items assess mainly the same construct. Only one item of the EQ-5D showed relevant overlap with this dimension (anxiety/depression). Findings were corroborated by comparisons with alternative models and cross-validation analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The consequences of this lack of differentiation (GHQ-12 v. WEMWBS) for mental health and well-being narratives deserves discussion to enrich debates on priorities in public mental health and its assessment.

Evaluation of ethnic disparities in detection of depression and anxiety in primary care during the maternal period: combined analysis of routine and cohort data.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on detection disparities of common mental disorders in minority ethnic women. AIMS: Describe the natural history of common mental disorders in primary care in the maternal period, characterise women with, and explore ethnic disparities in, detected and potentially missed common mental disorders. METHOD: Secondary analyses of linked birth cohort and primary care data involving 8991 (39.4% White British) women in Bradford. Common mental disorders were characterised through indications in the electronic medical record. Potentially missed common mental disorders were defined as an elevated General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) score during pregnancy with no corresponding common mental disorder markers in the medical record. RESULTS: Estimated prevalence of pre-birth common mental disorders was 9.5%, rising to 14.0% 3 years postnatally. Up to half of cases were potentially missed. Compared with White British women, minority ethnic women were twice as likely to have potentially missed common mental disorders and half as likely to have a marker of screening for common mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Common mental disorder detection disparities exist for minority ethnic women in the maternal period.

An evaluation of computerized adaptive testing for general psychological distress: combining GHQ-12 and Affectometer-2 in an item bank for public mental health research.

BACKGROUND: Recent developments in psychometric modeling and technology allow pooling well-validated items from existing instruments into larger item banks and their deployment through methods of computerized adaptive testing (CAT). Use of item response theory-based bifactor methods and integrative data analysis overcomes barriers in cross-instrument comparison. This paper presents the joint calibration of an item bank for researchers keen to investigate population variations in general psychological distress (GPD). METHODS: Multidimensional item response theory was used on existing health survey data from the Scottish Health Education Population Survey (n = 766) to calibrate an item bank consisting of pooled items from the short common mental disorder screen (GHQ-12) and the Affectometer-2 (a measure of "general happiness"). Computer simulation was used to evaluate usefulness and efficacy of its adaptive administration. RESULTS: A bifactor model capturing variation across a continuum of population distress (while controlling for artefacts due to item wording) was supported. The numbers of items for different required reliabilities in adaptive administration demonstrated promising efficacy of the proposed item bank. CONCLUSIONS: Psychometric modeling of the common dimension captured by more than one instrument offers the potential of adaptive testing for GPD using individually sequenced combinations of existing survey items. The potential for linking other item sets with alternative candidate measures of positive mental health is discussed since an optimal item bank may require even more items than these.

Computerized adaptive testing of population psychological distress: simulation-based evaluation of GHQ-30.

PURPOSE: Goldberg's General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) items are frequently used to assess psychological distress but no study to date has investigated the GHQ-30's potential for adaptive administration. In computerized adaptive testing (CAT) items are matched optimally to the targeted distress level of respondents instead of relying on fixed-length versions of instruments. We therefore calibrate GHQ-30 items and report a simulation study exploring the potential of this instrument for adaptive administration in a longitudinal setting. METHODS: GHQ-30 responses of 3445 participants with 2 completed assessments (baseline, 7-year follow-up) in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey were calibrated using item response theory. Our simulation study evaluated the efficiency of CAT administration of the items, cross-sectionally and longitudinally, with different estimators, item selection methods, and measurement precision criteria. RESULTS: To yield accurate distress measurements (marginal reliability at least 0.90) nearly all GHQ-30 items need to be administered to most survey respondents in general population samples. When lower accuracy is permissible (marginal reliability of 0.80), adaptive administration saves approximately 2/3 of the items. For longitudinal applications, change scores based on the complete set of GHQ-30 items correlate highly with change scores from adaptive administrations. CONCLUSIONS: The rationale for CAT-GHQ-30 is only supported when the required marginal reliability is lower than 0.9, which is most likely to be the case in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies assessing mean changes in populations. Precise measurement of psychological distress at the individual level can be achieved, but requires the deployment of all 30 items.

Maternal psychological distress in primary care and association with child behavioural outcomes at age three.

Observational studies indicate children whose mothers have poor mental health are at increased risk of socio-emotional behavioural difficulties, but it is unknown whether these outcomes vary by the mothers' mental health recognition and treatment status. To examine this question, we analysed linked longitudinal primary care and research data from 1078 women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort. A latent class analysis of treatment status and self-reported distress broadly categorised women as (a) not having a common mental disorder (CMD) that persisted through pregnancy and the first 2 years after delivery (N = 756, 70.1 %), (b) treated for CMD (N = 67, 6.2 %), or (c) untreated (N = 255, 23.7 %). Compared to children of mothers without CMD, 3-year-old children with mothers classified as having untreated CMD had higher standardised factor scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (d = 0.32), as did children with mothers classified as having treated CMD (d = 0.27). Results were only slightly attenuated in adjusted analyses. Children of mothers with CMD may be at risk for socio-emotional and behavioural difficulties. The development of effective treatments for CMD needs to be balanced by greater attempts to identify and treat women.

Validity of single item responses to short message service texts to monitor depression: an mHealth sub-study of the UK ACUDep trial.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of research designs are using text messaging (SMS) as a means of self-reported symptom and outcome monitoring in a variety of long-term health conditions, including severity ratings of depressed mood. The validity of such a single item SMS score to measure latent depression is not currently known and is vital if SMS data are to inform clinical evaluation in the future. METHODS: A sub-set of depressed participants in the UK ACUDep trial submitted a single SMS text score (R-SMS-DS) between 1 and 9 on how depressed they felt around the same time as completing the PHQ-9 depression questionnaire on paper at 3 months follow-up of the trial. Exploratory categorical data factor analysis (EFA) was used to ascertain the alignment of R-SMS-DS scores with the factor structure of the PHQ-9. Any response bias with regard to age or gender was assessed by differential item functioning (DIF) analysis. RESULTS: Depression scores based on the PHQ-9 and R-SMS-DS at 3 months were available for 337 participants (74 % female; mean age: 42 years, SD = 11.1), 213 of which completed the two outcomes within 6 days of each other. R-SMS-DS scores aligned with the underlying latent depression of the PHQ-9 (factor loading of 0.656) and in particular its affective rather than somatic dimension. The R-SMS-DS score was most strongly correlated with depressed mood (r = 0.607), feeling bad about oneself (r = 0.588) and anhedonia (r = 0.573). R-SMS-DS responses were invariant with respect to gender (p = 0.302). However, there was some evidence for age related response bias (p = 0.031), with older participants being more likely to endorse lower R-SMS-DS scores than younger ones. CONCLUSIONS: The R-SMS-DS used in the ACUDep trial was found to be a valid measure of latent affective depression with no gender related response bias. This text message item may therefore represent a useful assessment and monitoring tool meriting evaluation in further research. For future study designs we recommend the collection of outcome data by new health technologies in combination with gold standard instruments to ensure concurrent validity.

Childhood adversity subtypes and depressive symptoms in early and late adolescence.

Within a longitudinal study of 1,005 adolescents, we investigated how exposure to childhood psychosocial adversities was associated with the emergence of depressive symptoms between 14 and 17 years of age. The cohort was classified into four empirically determined adversity subtypes for two age periods in childhood (0-5 and 6-11 years). One subtype reflects normative/optimal family environments (n = 692, 69%), while the other three subtypes reflect differential suboptimal family environments (aberrant parenting: n = 71, 7%; discordant: n = 185, 18%; and hazardous: n = 57, 6%). Parent-rated child temperament at 14 years and adolescent self-reported recent negative life events in early and late adolescence were included in models implementing path analysis. There were gender-differentiated associations between childhood adversity subtypes and adolescent depressive symptoms. The discordant and hazardous subtypes were associated with elevated depressive symptoms in both genders but the aberrant parenting subtype only so in girls. Across adolescence the associations between early childhood adversity and depressive symptoms diminished for boys but remained for girls. Emotional temperament was also associated with depressive symptoms in both genders, while proximal negative life events related to depressive symptoms in girls only. There may be neurodevelopmental factors that emerge in adolescence that reduce depressogenic symptoms in boys but increase such formation in girls.

Ten-Year Outcomes of First-Episode Psychoses in the MRC ÆSOP-10 Study.

It has long been held that schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders have a predominately poor course and outcome. We have synthesized information on mortality, clinical and social outcomes from the ÆSOP-10 multicenter study, a 10-year follow-up of a large epidemiologically characterized cohort of 557 people with first-episode psychosis. Symptomatic remission and recovery were more common than previously believed. Distinguishing between symptom and social recovery is important given the disparity between these; even when symptomatic recovery occurs social inclusion may remain elusive. Multiple factors were associated with an increased risk of mortality, but unnatural death was reduced by 90% when there was full family involvement at first contact compared with those without family involvement. These results suggest that researchers, clinicians and those affected by psychosis should countenance a much more optimistic view of symptomatic outcome than was assumed when these conditions were first described.

The influence of different types of war experiences on depression and anxiety in a Ugandan cohort of war-affected youth: the WAYS study.

BACKGROUND: War experiences (WE) are frequently associated with mental health problems. Whether different types of WE vary in predicting which problem, or how severe, in former child soldiers (FCS) remains unknown. METHODS: Using data from the first wave of an on-going longitudinal cohort study (the WAYS study), we investigated relations between types of WE and symptoms of depression/anxiety among FCS in Northern Uganda (N = 539, baseline age = 22.39; SD = 2.03, range 18-25). Using robust Maximum Likelihood estimation in SEM, regression analyses were performed to relate binary indicators of types of WE to a single latent factor capturing symptoms of depression/anxiety. RESULTS: SEM results showed that "direct personal harm", "witnessing violence", "deaths", "threat to loved ones", "involvement in hostilities", and "sexual abuse" indicators were related to reported symptoms of depression/anxiety irrespective of gender and age. Multivariable models revealed independent associations of "witnessing violence" (ß = 0.29, SE = 0.09, p < 0.001) and "deaths" (ß = 0.14, SE = 0.05, p < 0.001) with symptoms of depression/anxiety in both sexes. "Sexual abuse" (ß = 0.32, SE = 0.16, p < 0.001) independently predicted symptoms of depression/anxiety for female but not male youths whilst "threat to loved ones" (ß = 0.13, SE = 0.07, p < 0.05) independently predicted symptoms of depression/anxiety in male but not female youths. CONCLUSIONS: Dimensions of WE predicted symptoms of depression/anxiety differently, but it is hard to establish their causal status. Our findings suggest that it might be fruitful to consider such exposure variations of WE when designing interventions to mitigate the symptoms of depression/anxiety on male and female FCS.

Women's experiences of the diagnostic journey in uterine adenomyosis: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Uterine adenomyosis is a benign gynaecological disease that causes physical and psychological problems, impacting on relationships. It is poorly understood and consequently may be diagnosed late. This protocol describes the process of conducting a systematic scoping review to retrieve and describe literature examining the daily experience and impact of living with uterine adenomyosis. It will explore the journey to diagnosis (and perceptions of what this process is like); identify the main concepts currently used in the literature and highlight gaps in knowledge for future research in relevant populations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology, the population-concept-context approach is used to form clear review questions. A three-phase search strategy will locate published and unpublished evidence from multiple sources. All articles reporting on the personal experiences of women diagnosed with uterine adenomyosis will be considered. Findings from qualitative, quantitative and mixed-method study designs from all settings will be included, not limited by geography but restricted to English. Documents will be screened by the primary researcher, supported by university supervisors. Search outputs will be presented using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow diagram. No formal quality appraisal will be conducted. Review findings will be descriptively collated and reported consistent with the Scoping Review Extension of the PRISMA checklist. Patient and public involvement engagement reflected a positive response for the project that this protocol supports. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As primary data will not be collected, formal ethical approval is not required. Prepared as part of a professional doctorate thesis, the findings of this study will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, support groups and social media networks.

Subtypes of avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder in children and adolescents: a latent class analysis.

Background: The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5) describes three primary avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID) subtypes including sensory sensitivity, lack of interest in food or eating, and fear of aversive consequences. Studies exploring these subtypes have yielded varying results. We used latent class analysis (LCA) based on the psychopathology of ARFID in a sample of children and adolescents to empirically identify classes. Methods: We carried out a surveillance study of ARFID in collaboration with the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit (BPSU) and the Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Surveillance System (CAPSS) in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland from 1st of March 2021 to 31st of March 2022. Paediatricians and child and adolescent psychiatrists were contacted monthly to report newly diagnosed cases of ARFID electronically and complete a detailed clinical questionnaire. Cases aged 5-18 years were included. LCA was performed specifying 1-6 classes and likelihood-based tests for model selection. The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Sample-Size Adjusted BIC were used to determine the most parsimonious model. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and χ2 tests were used to compare the characteristics of the identified classes. A multinomial logistic regression (MLR) was performed to investigate predicting factors for the latent classes. Findings: We identified 319 children and adolescents with ARFID. LCA revealed four distinct classes which were labelled as Fear subtype, Lack of Interest subtype, Sensory subtype, and Combined subtype. The probability of being classified as these were 7.2% (n = 23), 25.1% (n = 80), 29.5% (n = 94) and 38.2% (n = 122), respectively. Age at diagnosis, sex, weight loss, distress associated with eating, and autism spectrum disorder diagnosis were identified as predictors of class membership. Interpretation: LCA identified four different classes in a sample of children and adolescents with ARFID. The Combined Subtype, a mixed presentation was the most common. The other three classes resembled the subtypes described in the literature. Clinicians should be aware of these different presentations of ARFID as they may benefit from different clinical interventions. Funding: This study was funded by the Former EMS Ltd (charity number 1098725, registered October 9th 2017).

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. METHODS: Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. RESULTS: We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. CONCLUSION: High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression.

Predictors of human rotation.

Why some humans prefer to rotate clockwise rather than anticlockwise is not well understood. This study aims to identify the predictors of the preferred rotation direction in humans. The variables hypothesised to influence rotation preference include handedness, footedness, sex, brain hemisphere lateralisation, and the Coriolis effect (which results from geospatial location on the Earth). An online questionnaire allowed us to analyse data from 1526 respondents in 97 countries. Factor analysis showed that the direction of rotation should be studied separately for local and global movements. Handedness, footedness, and the item hypothesised to measure brain hemisphere lateralisation are predictors of rotation direction for both global and local movements. Sex is a predictor of the direction of global rotation movements but not local ones, and both sexes tend to rotate clockwise. Geospatial location does not predict the preferred direction of rotation. Our study confirms previous findings concerning the influence of handedness, footedness, and sex on human rotation; our study also provides new insight into the underlying structure of human rotation movements and excludes the Coriolis effect as a predictor of rotation.