Population-average mediation analysis for zero-inflated count outcomes.

Mediation analysis is an increasingly popular statistical method for explaining causal pathways to inform intervention. While methods have increased, there is still a dearth of robust mediation methods for count outcomes with excess zeroes. Current mediation methods addressing this issue are computationally intensive, biased, or challenging to interpret. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new mediation methodology for zero-inflated count outcomes using the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) model and the counterfactual approach to mediation. This novel work gives population-average mediation effects whose variance can be estimated rapidly via delta method. This methodology is extended to cases with exposure-mediator interactions. We apply this novel methodology to explore if diabetes diagnosis can explain BMI differences in healthcare utilization and test model performance via simulations comparing the proposed MZIP method to existing zero-inflated and Poisson methods. We find that our proposed method minimizes bias and computation time compared to alternative approaches while allowing for straight-forward interpretations.

Application of marginalized zero-inflated models when mediators have excess zeroes.

Mediation analysis has become increasingly popular over the last decade as researchers are interested in assessing mechanistic pathways for intervention. Although available methods have increased, there are still limited options for mediation analysis with zero-inflated count variables where the distribution of response has a "cluster" of data at the zero value (i.e. distribution of number of cigarettes smoked per day, where nonsmokers cluster at zero cigarettes). The currently available methods do not obtain unbiased population average effects of mediation effects. In this paper, we propose an extension of the counterfactual approach to mediation with direct and indirect effects to scenarios where the mediator is a count variable with excess zeroes by utilizing the Marginalized Zero-Inflated Poisson Model (MZIP) for the mediator model. We derive direct and indirect effects for continuous, binary, and count outcomes, as well as adapt to allow mediator-exposure interactions. Our proposed work allows straightforward calculation of direct and indirect effects for the overall population mean values of the mediator, for scenarios in which researchers are interested in generalizing direct and indirect effects to the population. We apply this novel methodology to an application observing how alcohol consumption may explain sex differences in cholesterol and assess model performance via a simulation study comparing the proposed MZIP mediator framework to existing methods for marginal mediator effects.

Pharmacogenomics of intravenous immunoglobulin response in Kawasaki disease.

Introduction: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a diffuse vasculitis in children. Response to high dose intravenous gamma globulin (IVIG), the primary treatment, varies according to genetic background. We sought to identify genetic loci, which associate with treatment response using whole genome sequencing (WGS). Method: We performed WGS in 472 KD patients with 305 IVIG responders and 167 non-responders defined by AHA clinical criteria. We conducted logistic regression models to test additive genetic effect in the entire cohort and in four subgroups defined by ancestry information markers (Whites, African Americans, Asians, and Hispanics). We performed functional mapping and annotation using FUMA to examine genetic variants that are potentially involved IVIG non-response. Further, we conducted SNP-set [Sequence] Kernel Association Test (SKAT) for all rare and common variants. Results: Of the 43,288,336 SNPs (23,660,970 in intergenic regions, 16,764,594 in introns and 556,814 in the exons) identified, the top ten hits associated with IVIG non-response were in FANK1, MAP2K3:KCNJ12, CA10, FRG1DP, CWH43 regions. When analyzed separately in ancestry-based racial subgroups, SNPs in several novel genes were associated. A total of 23 possible causal genes were pinpointed by positional and chromatin mapping. SKAT analysis demonstrated association in the entire MANIA2, EDN1, SFMBT2, and PPP2R5E genes and segments of CSMD2, LINC01317, HIVEPI, HSP90AB1, and TTLL11 genes. Conclusions: This WGS study identified multiple predominantly novel understudied genes associated with IVIG response. These data can serve to inform regarding pathogenesis of KD, as well as lay ground work for developing treatment response predictors.