RESUMO
Land subsidence induced by coal mining (MLS) has posed a huge threat to the ecological environment, buildings, roads, and other infrastructure safety in mining areas. However, the prediction and evaluation of MLS is relatively complex, and the reliability of the prediction results is closely related to factors such as the professional knowledge and engineering experience of researchers. This paper aims to combine intelligent optimization algorithms: ant lion optimizer (ALO), bald eagle search (BES), bird swarm algorithm (BSA), harris hawks optimization (HHO), and sparrow search algorithm (SSA), with machine learning model of gradient boosting with categorical features support algorithm (CatBoost) to predict MLS. To achieve this goal, five hybrid models based CatBoost were developed and the prediction accuracy and reliability of the models were compared and analyzed. The prediction performance of the hybrid models has been significantly improved on the basis of a single model, of which the SSA-CatBoost model has the most obvious improvement (from R2 = 0.927 to 0.965, RMSE = 0.541 to 0.377, MAE = 0.386 to 0.297, VAF = 92.720 to 95.837). The importance and predictive contribution of all input features to predictive labels were studied with the Shapley method. The research results indicate that hybrid model technology is a reliable MLS prediction method. This study can help mining technicians use machine learning methods to study the degree of MLS damage to the surface environment and provide scientific advanced prediction and evaluation for the protection and management of the ecological environment in mining areas and the formulation of safety production measures.