HIV, risk, and time preferences: Evidence from a general population sample in Lesotho.

Identifying individuals most at risk of HIV infection is a priority for policymakers. Apart from specific groups, however, little is known about how to identify those at high risk in the population. Research suggests that attitudes toward risk and time preferences may influence risky sexual behavior, but no studies have so far investigated the interplay between risk attitudes, time preference, and HIV infection. We collect data on risk and time preferences using hypothetical games (multiple price list method) at baseline and data on HIV status at baseline (2010) and endline (2012) allowing us to calculate incidence rate over a 2-year period among 675 participants, males and females 18-32 years old in Lesotho. We find robust evidence of a statistically significant positive associations between HIV incidence and prevalence and risk-loving attitudes, while the associations with risky behaviors and time preferences are not statistically significant. A measure of attitude toward risk, relatively easy to administer to individuals in a survey, is thus associated with future HIV status. This is an important finding for policymakers and suggests the importance of targeting HIV prevention programs to risk-loving individuals and therefore improving program efficiency.

Evaluating the effectiveness of incentives to improve HIV prevention outcomes for young females in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa impact evaluation protocol and baseline results.

BACKGROUND: Eswatini continues to have the highest prevalence of HIV in the world, and one of the highest HIV incidences among adult populations (aged 15-49). This analysis reports on both key elements of study design/protocol and baseline results from an impact evaluation of an intervention incentivizing (i) initiation, enrolment, attendance or completion of some form of education, and (ii) lower risk sexual behaviour. METHODS: The impact evaluation employs a two by two factorial design in which participants are enrolled in either the incentive for education arm ('education treatment arm' providing a conditional cash incentive) or the control arm ('education control arm'). In each of these arms, 50% of participants were randomized to also be eligible for selection - three times a year - to participate in a conditional raffle conditional on testing negative for curable STIs (syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis). RESULTS: Baseline recruitment and screening occurred in 2016 when a total of 6055 individuals were screened of which 4863 participated in the baseline survey, and 4819 individuals were randomized into one of the study arms. The baseline prevalence of HIV, Trichomonas vaginalis, and syphilis among adolescent girls and young women 8.20% (397/4840), 3.31% (150/4533) and 0.17% (8/4830) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An educational cash incentive and raffle incentive impact evaluation that addresses adolescent girls and young women who are in-education and out-of-education has the potential to reduce HIV risk in adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Name of the registry: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR201811609257043 . Date of registration: May 11, 2018 'Retrospectively registered'. URL of trial registry record: https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=4685.

Invitations and incentives: a qualitative study of behavioral nudges for primary care screenings in Armenia.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases account for a growing proportion of deaths in Armenia, which require early detection to achieve disease control and prevent complications. To increase rates of screening, demand-side interventions of personalized invitations, descriptive social norms, labeled cash transfers, and conditional cash transfers were tested in a field experiment. Our complementary qualitative study explores factors leading to the decision to attend screening and following through with that decision, and experiences with different intervention components. METHODS: Informed by the Health Belief Model as our conceptual framework, we collected eighty in-depth interviews with service users and twenty service providers and analyzed them using open coding and thematic analysis. RESULTS: An individual's decision to screen depends on 1) the perceived need for screening based on how they value their own health and perceive hypertension and diabetes as a harmful but manageable condition, and 2) the perceived utility of a facility-based screening, and whether screening will provide useful information on disease status or care management and is socially acceptable. Following through with the decision to screen depends on their knowledge of and ability to attend screenings, as well as any external motivators such as an invitation or financial incentive. CONCLUSIONS: Personalized invitations from physicians can prompt individuals to reconsider their need for screening and can, along with financial incentives, motivate individuals to follow through with the decision to screen. The effect of descriptive social norms in invitations should be further studied. Efforts to increase preventive screenings as an entry point into primary care in Armenia may benefit from implementation of tailored messages and financial incentives. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol was approved on January 11, 2019 by the Institutional Review Board of the Center of Medical Genetics and Primary Health Care in Armenia (02570094). https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3776 .

Women's Relationship Power Modifies the Effect of a Randomized Conditional Cash Transfer Intervention for Safer Sex in Tanzania.

This study tests whether women's relationship power modifies the effect of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) on STI risk. We analyzed 988 women enrolled in the RESPECT study in Tanzania, a yearlong, randomized-controlled trial testing the effectiveness of a CCT to reduce STI incidence. Women were randomized at the individual level to a no-cash control group, a low-cash, or a high-cash study arm. After one year, there was no main effect of study arm on risk of having an STI among women. However, in tests of heterogeneity, the effect of the CCT varied by a woman's relationship power (adjusted RRs of the interaction term for women with higher relationship power: RR 0.567 (95% CI 0.240-0.895) for high cash and RR 1.217 (95% CI 0.794-1.641) for low cash). Specifically, women with higher relationship power in the low cash transfer arm had an elevated risk of testing positive for an STI, whereas women with high relationship power in the high cash transfer arm had a decreased risk of testing positive for an STI.

The Impact of Positive Income Shocks on Risky Sexual Behavior: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania.

In this paper, we exploit a lottery in Tanzania, which randomly assigned eligible participants to receive $100 cash grants. The randomized nature of the lottery allows us to estimate the causal impact of positive income shocks on risky sexual behavior. We found that winning the lottery led men to have 0.28 (95 % CI 0.14, 0.55) more sexual partners and to a 0.21 (95 % CI 0.01-0.4) increase in the probability of unprotected sex with a non-primary partner relative to a control group of eligible non-winners. We found no significant effect of winning the lottery on the sexual behavior of women.

Mutual HIV status disclosure is associated with consistent condom use in public sector ART clients in Free State province, South Africa: a short report.

Risky sexual behaviour in PLWHA on antiretroviral therapy threatens both prevention and treatment efforts, but disclosure promises to support safer sexual practices. This paper investigates the association between HIV self-disclosure and consistent condom use in a cohort of public sector patients on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. Using data from the FEATS cohort study, logistic regression analysis shows that knowledge of your partner's HIV status is positively associated with consistent condom use (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.37-5.43, p = 0.004) and so too mutual HIV disclosure (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.60-7.18, p = 0.001). Prevention and treatment programmes, through couple HIV counselling and testing (CHCT) and other assistance programmes, should focus on supporting the mutual disclosure of HIV status among PLWHA on ARV treatment.

Influence of COVID-19 on female sex workers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A mixed-methods analysis.

This study investigates how the landscape of sex work in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, evolved in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Using a mixed-methods approach, the analysis triangulates data from quantitative and qualitative sources to quantify shifts in income, demand, and client frequency and describe female sex workers' perspectives on their work environment. The COVID-19 restrictions introduced in early 2020 resulted in dramatic decreases in sex work income, leading to extreme financial vulnerability, food insecurity, and challenges in meeting other basic needs such as paying rent. However, in a 2021 follow-up survey, sex workers reported the summer of 2021 as a key turning point, with the demand for sex work rebounding to closer to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, despite the average number of unique weekly clients not yet having fully rebounded, by 2021 the price per client and the total monthly sex work income had returned to pre-pandemic levels. This may potentially be explained by an increased number of repeat clients, which represented a larger proportion of all clients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

E = mc2 : Education (E), medication (m), and conditional cash (c2 ) to improve uptake of antiseizure medications in a low-resource population: Protocol for randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Most people with epilepsy (PWE) could live seizure-free if treated with one or more antiseizure medications (ASMs). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 75% of PWE in low-resource settings lack adequate antiseizure treatment. Limited education surrounding epilepsy and the out-of-pocket costs of ASMs in particular pose barriers to managing epilepsy in resource-poor, low-income settings. The aim of this study is to implement and test a novel strategy to improve outcomes across the epilepsy care cascade marked by (1) retention in epilepsy care, (2) adherence to ASMs, and (3) seizure reduction, with the measured goal of seizure freedom. METHODS: A randomized, double-blinded clinical trial will be performed, centered at the Ignace Deen Hospital in Conakry, Republic of Guinea, in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. Two hundred people with clinically diagnosed epilepsy, ages 18 years and above, will receive education on epilepsy and then be randomized to (i) free ASMs versus (ii) conditional cash, conditioned upon return to the epilepsy clinic. Participants will be followed for 360 days with study visits every 90 days following enrollment. SIGNIFICANCE: We design a randomized trial for PWE in Guinea, a low-resource setting with a high proportion of untreated PWE and a nearly completely privatized healthcare system. The trial includes a conditional cash transfer intervention, which has yet to be tested as a targeted means to improve outcomes for people with a chronic neurological disorder. The trial aims to provide an evidence base for the treatment of epilepsy in such settings. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: We present a clinical trial protocol for a randomized, blinded study of 200 people with epilepsy in the low-resource African Republic of Guinea, providing an educational intervention (E), and then randomizing in a 1:1 allocation to either free antiseizure medication (m) or conditional cash (c2 ) for 360 days. Measured outcomes include (1) returning to outpatient epilepsy care, (2) adherence to antiseizure medications (ASMs), and (3) reducing the number of seizures. This study is an initial look at giving small amounts of cash for desired results (or "nudges") for improving epilepsy outcomes in the sub-Saharan African and brain disorder contexts.

Socioeconomic determinants of stigmatization and HIV testing in Lesotho.

HIV/AIDS stigmatizing attitudes and their consequences on preventative behaviors are among the most poorly understood aspects of the AIDS epidemic. This paper analyzes the socioeconomic determinants of discriminating attitudes toward people living with HIV and their implications on the likelihood of HIV testing. These effects are tested using the 2004 and 2009 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Lesotho, where HIV/AIDS is a pervasive problem. We find that HIV/AIDS stigmatizing attitudes are negatively associated with education and wealth and positively correlated with Catholic religion for women and traditional circumcision for men. The analysis also shows a negative association between stigmatizing beliefs and the probability of being tested for HIV.

Reviewing the evidence on health financing for effective coverage: do financial incentives work?

The widening gap between improving healthcare coverage rates and stagnating health outcomes across low-income and middle-income countries highlights the need for investments in quality of care, in addition to access. New research, presented in a World Bank report, examines one type of relevant policy reform: performance-based financing (PBF), which is a package reform that always includes performance pay to front-line health workers and often also provides facility autonomy, transparency and community engagement. A large body of rigorous studies and new analysis show that in under-resourced, centralised health systems, PBF can result in gains to service utilisation, but only has limited impacts on quality. Even the relative benefits of PBF on service utilisation are less clear when compared with (1) direct facility financing which provides front-line facilities with operating budgets and provider autonomy, but not performance pay and (2) demand-side financial support for health services (ie, conditional cash transfers and vouchers). Thus, the central component of PBF-the performance pay-appears to add little value over flexible payment systems and provider autonomy. The analysis shows that this lack of impact is unsurprising because most of the constraints to improving quality do not lie with the health worker in these settings. While PBF was conceived as a complex package 'blueprint', we review the evidence to conclude that only some elements seem to make sense. To improve quality of care, health financing should pivot from performance pay while retaining the elements of direct facility financing, autonomy, transparency and community engagement.

Conditional cash transfers to improve health-focused outcomes: a global scoping review.

This scoping review assesses the use of conditional cash transfer (CCT) interventions - direct distribution of money to individuals conditional on their compliance to certain requirements - in randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies and large community-based randomised trials with health-focused outcomes. Five databases were searched to identify 68 records published 2004-2021 from 25 countries (8 low- (32%), 5 lower middle- (20%), 6 upper middle- (24%) and 6 high-income (24%), according to the World Bank Categorisation (2017). Forty-six studies were unique (after excluding multiple publications on a single study). The most common outcomes assessed were infectious diseases (30%); maternal health (24%); vaccination rates (17%); and childhood developmental measures (17%). The number of participants receiving CCT in each study ranged from 47 to 5,788, with a median of 487 individuals. The number of total participants ranged from 72 to 14,000, with a median of 1,289 individuals. Fifteen percent of studies involved mobile CCT disbursement. More than a quarter of payments were greater than 50 USD (29%), and most payments were 20 USD or less (58%). Seventy-eight percent of unique full-length studies reported statistically significant CCT effects. Although CCTs remain controversial, a growing evidence base is emerging for their potential impact in specific health conditions.

Invitations, incentives, and conditions: A randomized evaluation of demand-side interventions for health screenings.

This randomized controlled trial investigates the impact of four demand-side interventions on health screening for diabetes and hypertension among Armenian adults. The interventions are 1) personalized invitations from a physician, 2) personalized invitations with information about peer screening behavior, 3) personalized invitations with a labeled but unconditional financial incentive, and 4) personal invitations with a conditional financial incentive. Compared with the control group, interventions 1 to 3 led to a significant increase in the screening rate of about 15 percentage points for diabetes and hypertension. The highest impact was measured for intervention 4 leading to a 31.2 percentage point increase in both screenings.

Are COVID-19 age-mortality curves for 2020 flatter in developing countries? Evidence from a cross-sectional observational study of population-level official death counts and excess deaths estimates.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have found a pattern of flatter COVID-19 age-mortality curves among low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) using only official COVID-19 death counts. This study examines this question by comparing the age gradient of COVID-19 mortality in a broad set of countries using both official COVID-19 death counts and excess mortality estimates for 2020. DESIGN: This observational study uses official COVID-19 death counts for 76 countries and excess death estimates for 42 countries. A standardised population analysis was conducted to assess the extent to which variation across countries in the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths was driven by variation in the population age distribution. SETTING AND PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Officially reported COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths for 2020 for all countries where such data were available in the COVerAGE database and the short-term mortality fluctuations harmonised data series, respectively. RESULTS: A higher share of pandemic-related deaths in 2020 occurred at younger ages in middle-income countries compared with high-income countries. People under age 65 years constituted on average (1) 10% of official deaths and 11 % of excess deaths in high-income countries, (2) 34% of official deaths and 33% of excess deaths in upper-middle-income countries, and (3) 54% of official deaths in LMICs. These contrasting profiles are due only in part to differences in population age structure. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are driven by some combination of variation in age patterns of infection rates and infection fatality rates. They indicate that COVID-19 is not just a danger to older people in developing countries, where a large share of victims are people of working age, who are caregivers and breadwinners for their families.

THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES.

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

The impact of financial incentives on HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa, a cluster randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Incentives conditional on school attendance or on remaining free of sexually transmitted infections have produced mixed results in reducing HIV incidence. METHODS: HIV-negative adolescent girls and young women aged 15-22%-50% of whom were out of school-were recruited from 293 clusters in Eswatini from urban (30%) and rural areas (70%).Financial incentives conditional on education attendance were randomly allocated at the cluster level. All participants were further individually randomised into eligibility for a raffle incentive conditional on random selection into the raffle, on negative tests for syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis and on being a raffle winner, creating four subarms in a 2×2 factorial design: no-intervention, raffle incentive, education incentive and raffle & education incentive. Randomisation was unblinded to participants.Logistic regressions were used in intention-to-treat analysis of HIV incidence over 3 years to estimate the impact of incentives conditional on school attendance and raffle incentives conditional on remaining sexually transmitted infection free. RESULTS: The study recruited 4389 HIV-negative participants, who were distributed into four subarms: no intervention (n=1068), raffle incentive (n=1162), education incentive (n=1088) and raffle and education incentive (n=1071).At endline, 272 participants from 3772 for whom endline data were collected, tested positive for HIV. HIV incidence among participants in education treatment arm was significantly lower than in the education control arm, 6.34% (119/1878) versus 8.08% (153/1894) (p=0.041); OR: 0.766 (0.598 to 0.981); adjusted OR (aOR): 0.754 (0.585 to 0.972). Compared with the no intervention subarm, HIV incidence in the raffle and education incentive subarm was significantly lower, 5.79% (54/878) versus 8.84% (80/905); OR: 0.634 (0.443 to 0.907); aOR: 0.622 (0.433 to 0.893), while it was not significantly lower in the raffle incentive subarm. CONCLUSION: Financial incentives conditional on education participation significantly reduced HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini and appear to be a promising tool for prevention in high HIV prevalence settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Western Institutional Review Board-protocol number 20 141 630.Eswatini National Health Research Review Board-FWA00026661.Pan African Clinical Trials Registry-PACTR201811609257043.

How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic? Mortality projections based on forecasted declines in economic growth.

OBJECTIVES: While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesised disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality. DESIGN: We construct a sample of 5.2 million births by pooling retrospective birth histories reported by women in Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 83 low-income and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2018. We employ regression models with country-specific fixed-effects and flexible time trends to estimate the impact of gross domestic product per capita on infant mortality rate. We then use growth projections by the International Monetary Fund to predict the effect of the economic downturn in 2020 on infant mortality. RESULTS: We estimate 267 208 (95% CI 112 000 to 422 415) excess infant deaths in 128 countries, corresponding to a 6.8% (95% CI 2.8% to 10.7%) increase in the total number of infant deaths expected in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.

Looking into the performance-based financing black box: evidence from an impact evaluation in the health sector in Cameroon.

Performance-based financing (PBF) is a complex health systems intervention aimed at improving the coverage and quality of care. Several studies have shown a positive impact of PBF on health service coverage, often coupled with improvements in quality, but relatively little is known about the mechanisms driving those results. This article presents results of a randomized impact evaluation in Cameroon designed to isolate the role of specific components of the PBF approach with four study groups: (i) PBF with explicit financial incentives linked to results, (ii) direct financing with additional resources available for health providers not linked to performance, (iii) enhanced supervision and monitoring without additional resources and (iv) a control group. Overall, results indicate that, when compared with the pure control group, PBF in Cameroon led to significant increases in utilization for several services (child and maternal vaccinations, use of modern family planning), but not for others like antenatal care visits and facility-based deliveries. In terms of quality, PBF increased the availability of inputs and equipment, qualified health workers, led to a reduction in formal and informal user fees but did not affect the content of care. However, for many positively impacted outcomes, the differences between the PBF group and the group receiving additional financing not linked to performance are not significant, suggesting that additional funding rather than the explicit incentives might be driving improvements. In contrast, the intervention group offering enhanced supervision, coaching and monitoring without additional funding did not experience significant impacts compared to the control group.

In Appreciation of Adam: Reflections from Friends and Colleagues.

Some of Adam Wagstsaff's colleagues and research collaborators submitted short reflections about the different ways Adam made a difference through his amazing research output to health equity and health systems as well as a leader and mentor. The Guest Editors of this Special Issue selected a set of six essays related to dimensions of Adam's contributions.The first contribution highlights his role early on in his career, prior to joining the World Bank, in defining and expanding an important field of research on equity in health ("Adam and Equity," by Eddy van Doorslaer and Owen O'Donnell). The second contribution focuses on Adam's early work on equity and health within the World Bank and his leadership on important initiatives that have had impact far beyond the World Bank ("Adam and Health Equity at the World Bank," by Davidson Gwatkin and Abdo Yazbeck). The next contribution focuses on Adam's deep dive into providing support, through research, for country-specific programs and reforms, with a special focus on some countries in East Asia ("Adam and Country Health System Research," by Magnus Lindelow, Caryn Bredenkamp, Winnie Yip, and Sarah Bales). The next contribution highlights Adam's many ways of contributing to the International Health Economics Association, from the impressive technical contributions to leadership and organizational reform ("Adam and iHEA," by Diane McIntyre). The next to last contribution focuses on Adam's long-term leadership in the research group at the World Bank and the long-lasting influence on integrating the research produced into World Bank operations and creating an environment that rewarded producing evidence for action ("Adam the Research Manager," by Deon Filmer and Damien de Walque). The last contribution pulls on the thread found in many of the earlier ones, mentorship with honesty, directness, caring, commitment, and equity ("Adam the Mentor," by Agnes Couffinhal, Caryn Bredenkamp, and Reem Hafez).

A randomized trial of cash incentives for sexual behavior change among female sex workers in Dar es Salaam.

RATIONALE: Female sex workers (FSW) across the world are at high risk for HIV infection and much work is needed to scale up HIV prevention programs among this group. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have been used successfully in recent years to encourage behavior change. We report the results of a CCT intervention among FSW in Tanzania. METHODS: We conducted a randomized controlled trial (N = 100) of a CCT intervention among FSW in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania in 2013. A respondent-driven sampling approach recruited women and randomized them into two groups based on the value of the cash incentive ($20 vs. $40 per visit). All women received testing for 2 curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs), trichomonas and syphilis, free treatment for those STIs and counseling. Women attended study visits at 0, 2 and 4 months and were tested for STIs and received counseling at each visit. Women testing negative for both STIs at the 2- and 4-month visits received a cash reward. RESULTS: Eighty-four women were retained in the study through all three visits. Participants reported significant reductions in the number of clients per week, and increases in the proportion of clients that they used condoms with over the course of the study. STI results showed decreases in prevalence from baseline to final study visit for syphilis and trichomonas. CONCLUSION: While this study was not powered to determine if the incentive resulted in statistically significant increases in condom use or decreases in STI prevalence, the results show the acceptability of the intervention, the feasibility of the recruitment methods, and the ability to retain FSW participants across multiple study visits. A follow-up randomized study with a larger number of participants is planned to test the efficacy of the intervention among high-risk populations of women engaging in transactional sex.

The use of financial incentives to prevent unhealthy behaviors: A review.

Behaviors that are putting people's health at risk are widespread and some of them are on the rise. Some of these behaviors can be prohibited or prevented by taxation. But financial incentives such as conditional cash transfers are also increasingly proposed and tested to discourage such behaviors, in domains as varied as HIV/AIDS, drugs, alcohol, smoking, and obesity. This paper presents the theoretical justification for using such incentives, distinguishing between the price, income effects, and the nudge effects. The growing literature about the effectiveness of financial incentives to prevent undesirable behaviors is reviewed in detail for each type of harmful behavior. Finally, the paper discusses the long-term sustainability of such incentives, a key issue if they are to be scaled up beyond pilot programs and research projects. The current evidence on whether such incentives have an impact after they are discontinued is mixed. Some design features, like lotteries or commitment devices, could induce savings as well as increase effectiveness, therefore improving sustainability.