Prediction Models of Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis in Adults: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) varies in severity, prompting development of systems aimed at predicting prognosis to help guide therapy. Although several prediction approaches are available, their test characteristics and clinical utility are not completely understood. PURPOSE: To evaluate the test characteristics (prognostic accuracy, incremental predictive value) and clinical utility (effect on patient outcomes) of severity scores for predicting mortality in AP. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to 3 May 2016). STUDY SELECTION: Longitudinal studies, in any language, that evaluated the prognostic value of at least 1 clinical severity score in AP. DATA EXTRACTION: Dual data extraction and quality assessment. DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 4039 citations screened, 94 unique studies evaluating 18 scores in 53 547 patients met the inclusion criteria. All studies provided data on prognostic accuracy, whereas 6 provided data on incremental predictive values. Most scores demonstrated low prognostic accuracy. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and the Ranson criteria were studied most extensively. The median sensitivity and specificity of APACHE II at a threshold of 7 were 100% (range, 68% to 100%) and 63% (range, 21% to 96%), respectively, and those of the Ranson criteria at a threshold of 2 were 90% (range, 0% to 100%) and 67% (range, 14% to 97%), respectively. Estimates of sensitivity were based on relatively few patients. Evidence was limited regarding the incremental predictive value of the scoring systems or their effect on patient outcomes. LIMITATION: Substantial clinical heterogeneity and inadequate methodological and reporting quality precluded a meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: The test characteristics and clinical utility of AP severity scores remain uncertain. Additional studies with improved methodological rigor are needed, and the development of new scoring systems may be justified. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Global Scholarship Programme for Research Excellence for 2014 to 2015, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

An internet-based epidemiological investigation of the outbreak of H7N9 Avian influenza A in China since early 2013.

BACKGROUND: In early 2013, a new type of avian influenza, H7N9, emerged in China. It quickly became an issue of great public concern and a widely discussed topic on the Internet. A considerable volume of relevant information was made publicly available on the Internet through various sources. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the outbreak of H7N9 in China based on data openly available on the Internet and to validate our investigation by comparing our findings with a well-conducted conventional field epidemiologic study. METHODS: We searched publicly accessible Internet data on the H7N9 outbreak primarily from government and major mass media websites in China up to February 10, 2014. Two researchers independently extracted, compared, and confirmed the information of each confirmed H7N9 case using a self-designed data extraction form. We summarized the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of confirmed H7N9 cases and compared them with those from the field study. RESULTS: According to our data updated until February 10, 2014, 334 confirmed H7N9 cases were identified. The median age was 58 years and 67.0% (219/327) were males. Cases were reported in 15 regions in China. Five family clusters were found. Of the 16.8% (56/334) of the cases with relevant data, 69.6% (39/56) reported a history of exposure to animals. Of the 1751 persons with a close contact with a confirmed case, 0.6% (11/1751) of them developed respiratory symptoms during the 7-day surveillance period. In the 97.9% (327/334) of the cases with relevant data, 21.7% (71/327) died, 20.8% (68/327) were discharged from a hospital, and 57.5% (188/327) were of uncertain status. We compared our findings before February 10, 2014 and those before December 1, 2013 with those from the conventional field study, which had the latter cutoff date of ours in data collection. Our study showed most epidemiological and clinical characteristics were similar to those in the field study, except for case fatality (71/327, 21.7% for our data before February 10; 45/138, 32.6% for our data before December 1; 47/139, 33.8% for the field study), time from illness onset to first medical care (4 days, 3 days, and 1 day), and time from illness onset to death (16.5 days, 17 days, and 21 days). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from our Internet-based investigation were similar to those from the conventional field study in most epidemiological and clinical aspects of the outbreak. Importantly, publicly available Internet data are open to any interested researchers and can thus greatly facilitate the investigation and control of such outbreaks. With improved efforts for Internet data provision, Internet-based investigation has a great potential to become a quick, economical, novel approach to investigating sudden issues of great public concern that involve a relatively small number of cases like this H7N9 outbreak.

Promising biomarkers for predicting the outcomes of patients with KRAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer treated with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

KRAS mutations have been established as a major predictive biomarker for resistance to the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) with anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibodies (anti-EGFR MoAbs). However, many patients with KRAS wild-type tumors still do not respond to the treatment. We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to assess whether BRAF mutations, PIK3CA mutations and PTEN loss can predict the outcomes of patients with KRAS wild-type mCRC treated with anti-EGFR MoAbs. Studies that explored the association of one or more of the three biomarkers with progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) and/or objective response rate (ORR) were identified through August 2012. Summary hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using the random-effects model. BRAF mutations, PIK3CA exon 20 mutations and PTEN loss were all associated with shorter PFS (HR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.67-4.03; HR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.33-4.78 and HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.19-2.56, respectively), shorter OS (HR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.79-4.19; HR = 3.29, 95% CI 1.60-6.75 and HR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.30-2.64, respectively) and lower ORR (RD = -36%, 95% CI -44 to -28%; RD = -38%, 95% CI -51 to -24% and RD = -41%, 95% CI -68 to -14%, respectively). PIK3CA exon 9 mutations were associated with none of the outcomes. Studies with relevant data consistently demonstrated a stronger predictive power of combined multiple biomarkers as compared to one alteration alone. These results suggest that BRAF mutations, PIK3CA exon 20 mutations and PTEN loss are predictive of worseoutcomes in KRAS wild-type mCRC treated with anti-EGFR MoAbs [corrected]. However, the quality of included studies varied, and some of the meta-analyses were limited by significant between-study heterogeneity. In the future, well-designed large randomized controlled trials conducted in KRAS wild-type mCRC patients with subgroup analysis according to BRAF, PIK3CA exon 20 and PTEN status are essential to fully assess the clinical relevance of these biomarkers.

The prognostic value of phosphorylated Akt in breast cancer: a systematic review.

The prognostic value of phosphorylated Akt (pAkt) overexpression in breast cancer has been investigated by many studies with inconsistent results. This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the association of pAkt overexpression with breast cancer prognosis in terms of overall survival and disease-free survival. Three electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database) were comprehensively searched. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from different studies were combined using the random-effects model. In total, 33 studies with 9,836 patients were included for final analysis. The summary HR for overall survival and disease-free survival was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.29-1.78) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.13-1.45), respectively, indicating higher risk of death and disease recurrence associated with pAkt overexpression. The results were robust in sensitivity analyses by omitting one study each time and by using the fixed-effects model instead. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses did not show that the prognostic effect of pAkt overexpression would change materially with such factors as population, status of hormone receptors, hormonal or trastuzumab treatment given, analyzing method (univariate versus multivariate) and methodological quality of the original studies. In conclusion, the available evidence suggests that pAkt overexpression is an adverse prognostic factor for breast cancer.

How often does an individual trial agree with its corresponding meta-analysis? A meta-epidemiologic study.

OBJECTIVE: A meta-analysis may provide more conclusive results than a single trial. The major cost of meta-analysis is the time of waiting before the meta-analysis becomes available and resources spent on consequent trials that may not be necessary. The objective of this study is to address how often the result of a single trial, in particular the first trial, differs from that of its corresponding meta-analysis so as to reduce unnecessary waiting time and subsequent trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: A meta-epidemiologic study was conducted by collecting meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and five major medical journals. Effect size of a single trial was compared with that of its corresponding meta-analysis. The single trial includes the first trial, last trial and any trial randomly selected from the meta-analysis. RESULTS: 647 meta-analyses are included and the median number of trials in a meta-analysis is 5. 233 (36.0%) meta-analyses have the first trial with a statistically significant result. When the first trial is statistically significant, 84.1% (95% CI: 79.4%, 88.8%) of the corresponding meta-analyses is both in the same direction and statistically significant. When the first trial is statistically insignificant, 57.9% (95% CI: 53.2%, 62.8%) of the meta-analysis is also statistically insignificant regardless of direction. The median number of years is 6.5 years from the first to the 5th trial. CONCLUSION: The conclusion of the first trial that the treatment is effective or harmful is mostly likely correct. A statistically significant trial agrees more often with its corresponding meta-analysis than a large trial. These findings imply that particularly in some urgent, life-saving or other critical circumstances for which no other effective methods are available, cautious recommendation based on the significant result of the first trial seems justifiable and could start use of an effective intervention by 5-8 years earlier.

Numerical simulation of airflow fields in two typical nasal structures of empty nose syndrome: a computational fluid dynamics study.

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of empty nose syndrome (ENS) has not been elucidated so far. Though postulated, there remains a lack of experimental evidence about the roles of nasal aerodynamics on the development of ENS. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the nasal aerodynamic features of ENS andto explore the role of aerodynamic changes on the pathogenesis of ENS. METHODS: Seven sinonasal models were numerically constructed, based on the high resolution computed tomography images of seven healthy male adults. Bilateral radical inferior/middle turbinectomy were numerically performed to mimic the typical nasal structures of ENS-inferior turbinate (ENS-IT) and ENS-middle turbinate (ENS-MT). A steady laminar model was applied in calculation. Velocity, pressure, streamlines, air flux and wall shear stress were numerically investigated. Each parameter of normal structures was compared with those of the corresponding pathological models of ENS-IT and ENS-MT, respectively. RESULTS: ENS-MT: Streamlines, air flux distribution, and wall shear stress distribution were generally similar to those of the normal structures; nasal resistances decreased. Velocities decreased locally, while increased around the sphenopalatine ganglion by 0.20 ± 0.17 m/s and 0.22 ± 0.10 m/s during inspiration and expiration, respectively. ENS-IT: Streamlines were less organized with new vortexes shown near the bottom wall. The airflow rates passing through the nasal olfactory area decreased by 26.27% ± 8.68% and 13.18% ± 7.59% during inspiration and expiration, respectively. Wall shear stresses, nasal resistances and local velocities all decreased. CONCLUSION: Our CFD simulation study suggests that the changes in nasal aerodynamics may play an essential role in the pathogenesis of ENS. An increased velocity around the sphenopalatine ganglion in the ENS-MT models could be responsible for headache in patients with ENS-MT. However, these results need to be validated in further studies with a larger sample size and more complicated calculating models.

Gemcitabine plus erlotinib for advanced pancreatic cancer: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to comprehensively summarize the currently available evidences on the efficacy and safety of gemcitabine plus erlotinib for treating advanced pancreatic cancer. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: PubMed, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and abstracts of recent major conferences were systematically searched to identify relevant publications. Studies that were conducted in advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib (with or without comparison with gemcitabine alone) and reporting objective response rate, disease control rate, progression-free survival, time-to-progression, overall survival, 1-year survival rate and/or adverse events were included. Data on objective response rate, disease control rate, 1-year survival rate and adverse events rate, respectively, were combined mainly by using Meta-Analyst software with a random-effects model. Data on progression-free survival, time-to-progression and overall survival were summarized descriptively. Sixteen studies containing 1,308 advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine plus erlotinib were included. The reported median progression-free survival (or time-to-progression), median overall survival, 1-year survival rates, objective response rates and disease control rates were 2-9.6 months, 5-12.5 months, 20%-51%, 0%-28.6% and 25.0%-83.3%, respectively. The weighted 1-year survival rate, objective response rate and disease control rate based on studies reporting robust results were 27.9%, 9.1% and 57.0%, respectively. According to the studies with relevant data, the incidences of total and severe adverse events were 96.3% and 62.9%, respectively. The most frequently reported adverse events were leucopenia, rash, diarrhea, vomitting, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, anaemia, stomatitis, drug-induced liver injury, fatigue and fever. Compared with gemcitabine alone, the progression-free survival and overall survival with gemcitabine plus erlotinib were significantly longer, but there were also more deaths and interstitial lung disease-like syndrome related to this treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Gemcitabine plus erlotinib represent a new option for the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer, with mild but clinically meaningful additive efficacy compared with gemcitabine alone. Its safety profile is generally acceptable, although careful management is needed for some specific adverse events.