Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV. METHODS: Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria. FINDINGS: The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Enhanced Integration of TB Services in Reproductive Maternal Newborn and Child Health (RMNCH) Settings in Eswatini.

Tuberculosis (TB) primarily affects women during their reproductive years and contributes to maternal mortality and poor pregnancy outcomes. For pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV), TB is the leading cause of non-obstetric maternal mortality, and pregnant WLHIV with TB are at increased risk of transmitting both TB and HIV to their infants. TB diagnosis among pregnant women, particularly WLHIV, remains challenging, and TB preventive treatment (TPT) coverage among pregnant WLHIV is limited. This project aimed to strengthen integrated TB and reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health (RMNCH) services in Eswatini to improve screening and treatment for TB disease, TPT uptake and completion among women receiving RMNCH services. The project was conducted from April-December 2017 at four health facilities in Eswatini and introduced enhanced monitoring tools and on-site technical support in RMNCH services. We present data on TB case finding among women, and TPT coverage and completion among eligible WLHIV. A questionnaire (S1 Appendix) measured healthcare provider perspectives on the project after three months of project implementation, including feasibility of scaling-up integrated TB and RMNCH services. A total of 5,724 women (HIV-negative or WLHIV) were screened for active TB disease while attending RMNCH services; 53 (0.9%) were identified with presumptive TB, of whom 37 (70%) were evaluated for TB disease and 6 (0.1% of those screened) were diagnosed with TB. Among 1,950 WLHIV who screened negative for TB, 848 (43%) initiated TPT and 462 (54%) completed. Forty-three healthcare providers completed the questionnaire, and overall were highly supportive of integrated TB and RMNCH services. Integration of TB/HIV services in RMNCH settings was feasible and ensured high TB screening coverage among women of reproductive age, however, symptom screening identified few TB cases, and further studies should explore various screening algorithms and diagnostics that optimize case finding in this population. Interventions should focus on working with healthcare providers and patients to improve TPT initiation and completion rates.