Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Female reproductive histories and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Female reproductive factors may influence the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) through the female hormonal environment, but studies on this topic are limited. This study aimed to assess whether age at menarche, number of children, infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth and age at natural menopause were associated with the risk of COPD. METHODS: Women from three cohorts with data on reproductive factors, COPD and covariates were included. Cause specific Cox regression models were adjusted for birth year, race, educational level, body mass index and pack years of smoking, stratified by asthma, and incorporating interaction between birth year and time. Between cohort differences and within cohort correlations were taken into account. RESULTS: Overall, 2 83 070 women were included and 10 737 (3.8%) developed COPD after a median follow-up of 11 (IQR 10-12) years. Analyses revealed a U shaped association between age at menarche and COPD (≤11 vs 13: HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23; ≥16 vs 13: HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.27). Women with three or more children (3 vs 2: HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.17; ≥4 vs 2: HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.40), multiple miscarriages (2 vs 0: HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.32; ≥3 vs 0: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.43) or stillbirth (1 vs 0: HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.53; ≥2 vs 0: HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.10) were at a higher risk of COPD. Among postmenopausal women, earlier age at natural menopause was associated with an increased risk of COPD (<40 vs 50-51: HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.63 to 1.75; 40-44 vs 50-51: HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple female reproductive factors, including age at menarche, number of children, miscarriage, stillbirth, and age at natural menopause were associated with the risk of COPD.

Choices of measures of association affect the visualisation and composition of the multimorbidity networks.

BACKGROUND: Network analysis, commonly used to describe the patterns of multimorbidity, uses the strength of association between conditions as weight to classify conditions into communities and calculate centrality statistics. Our aim was to examine the robustness of the results to the choice of weight. METHODS: Data used on 27 chronic conditions listed on Australian death certificates for women aged 85+. Five statistics were calculated to measure the association between 351 possible pairs: odds ratio (OR), lift, phi correlation, Salton cosine index (SCI), and normalised-joint frequency of pairs (NF). Network analysis was performed on the 10% of pairs with the highest weight according to each definition, the 'top pairs'. RESULTS: Out of 56 'top pairs' identified, 13 ones were consistent across all statistics. In networks of OR and lift, three of the conditions which did not join communities were among the top five most prevalent conditions. Networks based on phi and NF had one or two conditions not part of any community. For the SCI statistics, all three conditions which did not join communities had prevalence below 3%. Low prevalence conditions were more likely to have high degree in networks of OR and lift but not SCI. CONCLUSION: Use of different statistics to estimate weights leads to different networks. For exploratory purposes, one may apply alternative weights to identify a large list of pairs for further assessment in independent studies. However, when the aim is to visualise the data in a robust and parsimonious network, only pairs which are selected by multiple statistics should be visualised.

Association of infertility and recurrent pregnancy loss with the risk of dementia.

Emerging evidence has shown the association between female reproductive histories (e.g., menarche age, parity, premature and early menopause) and the risk of dementia. However, little attention has been given to infertility and pregnancy loss. To examine the associations of infertility, recurrent miscarriages, and stillbirth with the risk of dementia, this study used data from four cohorts in the International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events. Women with data on at least one of the reproductive exposures of interest, dementia, and all covariates were included. Histories of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth were self-reported. Dementia (including Alzheimer's disease) was identified through surveys, aged care, pharmaceutical, hospital, and death registry data. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of dementia, accounting for well-established risk factors of dementia, study variability, and within-study correlation. Overall, 291,055 women were included at a median (interquartile range) age of 55.0 (47.0-62.0) at baseline. During the median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 13.0 (12.0-14.0) years, 3334 (1.2%) women developed dementia. Compared to women without stillbirth, a history of recurrent stillbirths (≥ 2) was associated with 64% higher risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.46-1.85). Compared to women without miscarriage, women with recurrent miscarriages (≥ 3) were at 22% higher risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.25). These findings suggest that recurrent stillbirths is a risk factor for dementia and may need to be considered in risk assessment of dementia in women.

Is there a link between infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth, and premature or early menopause? Results from pooled analyses of 9 cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Some reproductive factors (such as age at menarche and parity) have been shown to be associated with age at natural menopause, but there has been little quantitative analysis of the association between infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth, and premature (<40 years) or early menopause (40-44 years). In addition, it has been unknown whether the association differs between Asian and non-Asian women, although the age at natural menopause is younger among Asian women. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth with age at natural menopause, and whether the association differed by race (Asian and non-Asian). STUDY DESIGN: This was a pooled individual participant data analysis from 9 observational studies contributing to the InterLACE consortium. Naturally postmenopausal women with data on at least 1 of the reproductive factors (ie, infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth), age at menopause, and confounders (ie, race, education level, age at menarche, body mass index, and smoking status) were included. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate relative risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth with premature or early menopause, adjusting for confounders. Between-study difference and within-study correlation were taken into account by including study as a fixed effect and indicating study as a cluster variable. We also examined the association with number of miscarriages (0, 1, 2, ≥3) and stillbirths (0, 1, ≥2), and tested whether the strength of association differed between Asian and non-Asian women. RESULTS: A total of 303,594 postmenopausal women were included. Their median age at natural menopause was 50.0 years (interquartile range, 47.0-52.0). The percentages of women with premature and early menopause were 2.1% and 8.4%, respectively. The relative risk ratios (95% confidence intervals) of premature and early menopause were 2.72 (1.77-4.17) and 1.42 (1.15-1.74) for women with infertility; 1.31 (1.08-1.59) and 1.37 (1.14-1.65) for women with recurrent miscarriages; and 1.54 (1.52-1.56) and 1.39 (1.35-1.43) for women with recurrent stillbirths. Asian women with infertility, recurrent miscarriages (≥3), or recurrent stillbirths (≥2) had higher risk of premature and early menopause compared with non-Asian women with the same reproductive history. CONCLUSION: Histories of infertility and recurrent miscarriages and stillbirths were associated with higher risk of premature and early menopause, and the associations differed by race, with stronger associations for Asian women with such reproductive history.

A new data driven method for summarising multiple cause of death data.

BACKGROUND: National mortality statistics are based on a single underlying cause of death. This practice does not adequately represent the impact of the range of conditions experienced in an ageing population in which multimorbidity is common. METHODS: We propose a new method for weighting the percentages of deaths attributed to different causes that takes account of the patterns of associations among underlying and contributing causes of death. It is driven by the data and unlike previously proposed methods does not rely on arbitrary choices of weights which can over-emphasise the contribution of some causes of death. The method is illustrated using Australian mortality data for people aged 60 years or more. RESULTS: Compared to the usual method based only on the underlying cause of death the new method attributes higher percentages of deaths to conditions like diabetes and dementia that are frequently mentioned as contributing causes of death, rather than underlying causes, and lower percentages to conditions to which they are closely related such as ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. For some causes, notably cancers, which are usually recorded as underlying causes with few if any contributing causes the new method produces similar percentages to the usual method. These different patterns among groups of related conditions are not apparent if arbitrary weights are used. CONCLUSION: The new method could be used by national statistical agencies to produce additional mortality tables to complement the current tables based only on underlying causes of death.

Hypertension medication from guidelines to practice: A cohort study in western Iran.

PURPOSE: Hypertension (HTN) is one of the most common risk factors for non-communicable chronic diseases. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the prescribing patterns of antihypertensive medications in Kermanshah Province, west of Iran. METHODS: The Ravansar Non-Communicable Diseases (RaNCD) cohort study is the first Kurdish community-based study; subjects' age ranged from 35 to 65 years. In order to examine the use of medications to control blood pressure, participants were asked to bring all prescribed medications to the study center. Treatments were compared with 2013 European Society of Hypertension (ESH)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines for the management of arterial HTN. RESULTS: From a total of 10 040 participants in RaNCD cohort, 1575 (15.7%) individuals were hypertensive, of whom, 1271 (80.7%) people were aware of their condition. From 1153 (73.20%) people under treatment, 840 (72.8%) had their HTN properly controlled. The most common medications used to treat HTN were losartan (27.5%), metoprolol (14.3%), and captopril (11.9%). Regardless of type of treatment, 49.3% of all patients have received the medication for l 6 ≥ years. The most commonly used drugs were ß-blockers and angiotension receptor blockers as 620 (31.0%) and 612 (30.6%), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that female gender, those receive ≥3 antihypertensive agents, and using preferred combinations were associated with a better blood pressure control. In addition, the probability of hypertension control was less likely with increasing duration of treatment (i.e >6 years) and in obese patients with ≥35 kg/m2 . CONCLUSIONS: Even though adherence to the international guidelines was acceptable, improvements can be made for better control of HTN. Therefore, it is imperative to educate healthcare professionals on improving their selection of antihypertensive medications and combination therapy for hypertensive patients.

Symptom patterns and health service use of women in early adulthood: a latent class analysis from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health.

BACKGROUND: Symptoms can be strong drivers for initiating interaction with the health system, especially when they are frequent, severe or impact on daily activities. Research on symptoms often use counts of symptoms as a proxy for symptom burden, however simple counts don't provide information on whether groups of symptoms are likely to occur together or whether such groups are associated with different types and levels of healthcare use. Women have a higher symptom burden than men; however studies of symptom patterns in young women are lacking. We aimed to characterise subgroups of women in early adulthood who experienced different symptom patterns and to compare women's use of different types of health care across the different symptom subgroups. METHODS: Survey and linked administrative data from 7 797 women aged 22-27 years in 2017 from the 1989-95 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analysed. A latent class analysis was conducted to identify subgroups of women based on the frequency of 16 symptom variables. To estimate the associations between the latent classes and health service use, we used the "Bolck, Croon and Hagenaars" (BCH) approach that takes account of classification error in the assignment of women to latent classes. RESULTS: Four latent classes were identified, characterised by 1) low prevalence of most symptoms (36.6%), 2) high prevalence of menstrual symptoms but low prevalence of mood symptoms (21.9%), 3) high prevalence of mood symptoms but low prevalence of menstrual symptoms, (26.2%), and high prevalence of many symptoms (15.3%). Compared to the other three classes, women in the high prevalence of many symptoms class were more likely to visit general practitioners and specialists, use more medications, and more likely to have had a hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Women in young adulthood experience substantially different symptom burdens. A sizeable proportion of women experience many co-occurring symptoms across both physical and psychological domains and this high symptom burden is associated with a high level of health service use. Further follow-up of the women in our study as they enter their late 20 s and early 30 s will allow us to examine the stability of the classes of symptoms and their associations with general health and health service use. Similar studies in other populations are needed to assess the generalisability of the findings.

Infertility, Miscarriage, Stillbirth, and the Risk of Stroke Among Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is one of the leading causes of mortality, and women are impacted more from stroke than men in terms of their absolute number and in having worse outcomes. A growing number of studies have explored the association between pregnancy complications, pregnancy outcomes, and stroke. Limited studies, however, have investigated links involving infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth, which could plausibly be associated via a background of endocrine conditions, endothelial dysfunction, and chronic systematic inflammation. This review aims to summarize current evidence and provide up-to-date information on the associations of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth, with stroke incidence. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted for cohort and case-control studies on associations between infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth, and stroke up to September 26, 2020. Seven databases were searched: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, CINIHL, PsyclNFO, Wanfang, and CNKI. Random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Sixteen cohort studies and 2 case-control studies enrolling 7 808 521 women were included in this meta-analysis. Women who had experienced miscarriage or stillbirth were at higher risk of stroke (miscarriage: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.00-1.14]; stillbirth: HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.11-1.71]) than other women. The HRs of stroke for each additional miscarriage and stillbirth were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.96-1.33) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.06-1.49), respectively. In subgroup analysis, increased risk of stroke was associated with repeated miscarriages and stillbirths (miscarriage ≥3: HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.05-1.90]; stillbirth ≥2: HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.26]). Associations between infertility and stroke were inconsistent and inconclusive (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.87-1.32]). CONCLUSIONS: Miscarriage and stillbirth are associated with increased risk of stroke among women, which could be used as a contributing risk factor to help identify women at higher risk of stroke.

Menopause, hysterectomy, menopausal hormone therapy and cause-specific mortality: cohort study of UK Biobank participants.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and cause-specific mortality? SUMMARY ANSWER: Self-reported MHT use following early natural menopause, surgical menopause or premenopausal hysterectomy is associated with a lower risk of breast cancer mortality and is not consistently associated with the risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease or other causes. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Evidence from the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trials showed that the use of estrogen alone is not associated with the risk of cardiovascular mortality and is associated with a lower risk of breast cancer mortality, but evidence from the Million Women Study showed that use of estrogen alone is associated with a higher risk of breast cancer mortality. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Cohort study (the UK Biobank), 178 379 women, recruited in 2006-2010. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Postmenopausal women who had reported age at menopause (natural or surgical) or hysterectomy, and information on MHT and cause-specific mortality. Age at natural menopause, age at surgical menopause, age at hysterectomy and MHT were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as spontaneous cessation of menstruation for 12 months with no previous hysterectomy or oophorectomy. Surgical menopause was defined as the removal of both ovaries prior to natural menopause. Hysterectomy was defined as removal of the uterus before natural menopause without bilateral oophorectomy. The study outcome was cause-specific mortality. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among the 178 379 women included, 136 790 had natural menopause, 17 569 had surgical menopause and 24 020 had hysterectomy alone. Compared with women with natural menopause at the age of 50-52 years, women with natural menopause before 40 years (hazard ratio (HR): 2.38, 95% CI: 1.64, 3.45) or hysterectomy before 40 years (HR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.23, 2.07) had a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality but not cancer mortality. MHT use was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer mortality following surgical menopause before 45 years (HR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.36), at 45-49 years (HR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.35) or at ≥50 years (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.63), and the association between MHT use and the risk of breast cancer mortality did not differ by MHT use duration (<6 or 6-20 years). MHT use was also associated with a lower risk of breast cancer mortality following natural menopause before 45 years (HR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.95) or hysterectomy before 45 years (HR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.74). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Self-reported data on age at natural menopause, age at surgical menopause, age at hysterectomy and MHT. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The current international guidelines recommend women with early menopause to use MHT until the average age at menopause. Our findings support this recommendation. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (grant numbers APP1027196 and APP1153420). G.D.M. is supported by NHMRC Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844), and M.H. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP1193838). There are no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.