A Practical Framework for Considering the Use of Predictive Risk Modeling in Child Welfare.

Predictive risk modeling (PRM) is a new approach to data analysis that can be used to help identify risks of abuse and maltreatment among children. Several child welfare agencies have considered, piloted, or implemented PRM for this purpose. We discuss and analyze the application of PRM to child protection programs, elaborating on the various misgivings that arise from the application of predictive modeling to human behavior, and we present a framework to guide the application of PRM in child welfare systems. Our framework considers three core questions: (1) Is PRM more accurate than current practice? (2) Is PRM ethically equivalent or superior to current practice? and (3) Are necessary evaluative and implementation procedures established prior to, during, and following introduction of the PRM?

Protective role of informal social support and early childhood programs in reducing likelihood of subsequent reports of child maltreatment.

BACKGROUND: While past research has suggested the importance of informal social support and early childhood programs for the well-being of child welfare supervised families and children, little is known about whether or not these mechanisms function as protective factors for child welfare involved families and mediate the likelihood of repeat child maltreatment. OBJECTIVE: The study examined the role of informal social support and early childhood program participation in mediating the effects of initial report of child neglect on subsequent child maltreatment reports. PARTICIPANTS & SETTING: The study sample of children ages 0-6 (N = 1963) was drawn from the NSCAW-II dataset, a nationally representative longitudinal dataset of 5872 child welfare supervised children and their families. METHODS: Structural Equation Modeling was used to examine the direct and indirect pathways: from initial report of neglect to all subsequent child maltreatment reports and from initial report of neglect to all subsequent child maltreatment reports through mediating variables such as informal social support and early childhood programs. RESULTS: Results showed that informal social support plays an important role in reducing the likelihood of subsequent reports (b = -0.00, p = 0.005). One unit increase in informal social support reduced the odds of a child maltreatment re-report by 0.3 % (odds ratio for informal social support OR = 0.997). IMPLICATIONS: It is important that child welfare supervised families are supported in enhancing their informal networks with their family members and friends and expanding non-familial informal networks in the community.

Combining Asset Accumulation and Multifamily Group Intervention to Improve Mental Health for Adolescent Girls: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Uganda.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to expand the current knowledge on the relationship between poverty, family functioning, and the mental health of adolescent girls in families affected by poverty and HIV/AIDS in southern Uganda. The study investigates the association between family functioning and mental health and examines whether family functioning moderates the intervention effect on adolescent mental health. METHODS: Longitudinal data were collected over the course of 24 months in a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted among N=1,260 girls aged 14-17 years in Uganda. Participants were randomized into control group (n=408 girls from n=16 schools), matched youth development accounts treatment, YDA (n=471 girls from n=16 schools), and integrated intervention combining YDA with multiple family group component (n=381 girls from n=15 schools). RESULTS: We found a significant positive association between family functioning and mental health of adolescent girls in our sample. Moderator analyses suggests that effect of the intervention on Beck Hopelessness Scale was significantly moderated by family cohesion (χ2 (4) =21.43; p = .000), frequency of family communication (χ2 (4) =9.65; p = .047), and quality of child-caregiver relationship (χ2 (4) =11.12; p = .025). Additionally, the intervention effect on depression was moderated by the comfort of family communication (χ2 (4) =10.2; p = .037). DISCUSSION: The study findings highlight the importance of family functioning when examining the link from poverty to adolescent mental health. The study contributes to the scarce evidence suggesting that asset-accumulation opportunities combined with a family strengthening component may improve parenting practices and adolescent mental health in poor households.

Childhood poverty and foster care placement: Implications for practice and policy.

BACKGROUND: About 6 % of US children enter foster care (FC) at some point before age 18. Children living in poverty enter more frequently than non-poor children. Still, it is less clear if specific dimensions of poverty place a child at risk of FC entry. OBJECTIVE: This study aids our understanding of the relationships between poverty and FC entry. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Data were drawn from a large linked administrative data study following low-income and/or children with maltreatment reports at baseline and followed them through 2010 (n = 9382). METHODS: Separate analyses compared low-income children and children reported for maltreatment. Cox regression analyses were used to account for clustering at the tract level. Poverty was measured at birth, receipt of income maintenance (IM) during the study period, and census tract poverty at baseline. RESULTS: The results showed that within a low-income sample, both family poverty and community poverty measures were significant factors in predicting later FC entry. However, when analyses were run comparing children with maltreatment reports with and without baseline AFDC use, the various measures of poverty diminished in impact once the type of maltreatment and report dispositions were controlled. Furthermore, we found that children living in families with more spells on income maintenance were less likely to enter FC. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that specific dimensions of poverty during childhood are associated with later FC entry. The lowered risk associated with a number of spells suggests connections between time limits for income assistance and the risk of entering FC.

Impact of Family-Based Economic Empowerment Intervention, Suubi+Adherence (2012-2018) on Multidimensional Poverty for Adolescents Living with HIV (ALWHIV) in Uganda.

Children growing up in poverty are disproportionately affected by diseases, including HIV. In this study, we use data from Suubi+Adherence, a longitudinal randomized control trial (2012-2018) with 702 adolescents living with HIV (ALWHIV), to examine the effectiveness of a family-based multifaceted economic empowerment (EE) intervention in addressing economic instability and multidimensional poverty among ALWHIV in Southern Uganda. We constructed a Multidimensional Poverty Index of individual and household indicators, including health, assets, housing and family dynamics. We computed the proportion of multidimensionally poor children (H), estimated poverty intensity (A) and adjusted headcount ratio (M0). Using repeated measures at five-time points (baseline, years 1, 2, 3 and 4-post baseline) across two study arms: treatment (receiving the EE intervention) vs. control arm (not receiving EE), we find that both the incidence and proportion of multidimensional poverty decreased in the treatment arm vs. the control arm. Given that there is a direct link between economic instability and poor health outcomes, these findings are informative. They point to the potential for family EE interventions to decrease multidimensional poverty among vulnerable children, including ALWHIV, impacting their overall wellbeing and ability to meet their treatment needs and improve HIV care continuum outcomes.

The long-term effects of a family based economic empowerment intervention (Suubi+Adherence) on suppression of HIV viral loads among adolescents living with HIV in southern Uganda: Findings from 5-year cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The rapid scale-up of HIV therapy across Africa has failed to adequately engage adolescents living with HIV (ALWHIV). Retention and viral suppression for this group (ALWHIV) is 50% lower than for adults. Indeed, on the African continent, HIV remains the single leading cause of mortality among adolescents. Strategies tailored to the unqiue developmental and social vulnerabilities of this group are urgently needed to enhance successful treatment. METHODS: We carried out a five-year longitudinal cluster randomized trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01790373) with adolescents living with HIV (ALWHIV) ages 10 to 16 years clustered at health care clinics to test the effect of a family economic empowerment (EE) intervention on viral suppression in five districuts in Uganda. In total, 39 accredited health care clinics from study districts with existing procedures tailored to adolescent adherence were eligible to participate in the trial. We used data from 288 youth with detectable HIV viral loads (VL) at baseline (158 -intervention group from 20 clinics, 130 -non-intervention group from 19 clinics). The primary end point was undetectable plasma HIV RNA levels, defined as < 40 copies/ml. We used Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and Cox proportional hazard models to estimate intervention effects. FINDINGS: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis indicated that an incidence of undetectable VL (0.254) was significantly higher in the intervention condition compared to 0.173 (in non-intervention arm) translated into incidence rate ratio of 1.468 (CI: 1.064-2.038), p = 0.008. Cox regression results showed that along with the family-based EE intervention (adj. HR = 1.446, CI: 1.073-1.949, p = 0.015), higher number of medications per day had significant positive effects on the viral suppression (adj.HR = 1.852, CI: 1.275-2.690, p = 0.001). INTERPRETATION: A family economic empowerment intervention improved treatment success for ALWHIV in Uganda. Analyses of cost effectiveness and scalability are needed to advance incorporation of this intervention into routine practice in low and middle-income countries.