Optimal CD4 count for initiating HIV treatment: impact of CD4 observation frequency and grace periods, and performance of dynamic marginal structural models.

BACKGROUND: In HIV infection, dynamic marginal structural models have estimated the optimal CD4 for treatment initiation to minimize AIDS/death. The impact of CD4 observation frequency and grace periods (permitted delay to initiation) on the optimal regimen has not been investigated nor has the performance of dynamic marginal structural models in moderately sized data sets-two issues that are relevant to many applications. METHODS: To determine optimal regimens, we simulated 31,000,000 HIV-infected persons randomized at CD4 500-550 cells/mm to regimens "initiate treatment within a grace period following observed CD4 first 0.5% lower AIDS-free survival compared with the true optimal regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal regimen is strongly influenced by CD4 frequency and less by grace period length. Dynamic marginal structural models lack precision at moderate sample sizes.

Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause of hospital admissions worldwide. Aetiologies vary by sociodemographics and geography. Retrospective studies of endoscopies in much of Africa have documented oesophageal varices as a leading cause of UGIB. Prospective studies describing outcomes and associations with clinical factors are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study at a referral hospital in Mwanza, Tanzania where schistosomiasis is endemic. Adults admitted with haematemesis underwent laboratory workup, schistosomiasis antigen testing and elective endoscopy, and were followed for two months for death or re-bleeding. We assessed predictors of endoscopic findings using logistic regression models, and determined prediction rules that maximised sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: Of 124 enrolled patients, 13 died within two months (10%); active schistosomiasis prevalence was 48%. 64/91(70%) patients had oesophageal varices. We found strong associations between varices and numerous demographic or clinical findings, permitting construction of simple, high-fidelity prediction rules for oesophageal varices applicable even in rural settings. Portal vein diameter ≥ 13 mm or water sourced from the lake yielded sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV >90% for oesophageal varices; presence of splenomegaly or water sourced from the lake maintained sensitivity and PPV >90%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results guide identification of patients, via ultrasound and clinical examination, likely to have varices for whom referral for endoscopy may be life-saving. Furthermore, they support empiric anti-schistosome treatment for patients with UGIB in schistosome-endemic regions. These interventions have potential to reduce UGIB-related morbidity and mortality in Africa.

Nevirapine concentrations in HIV-infected children treated with divided fixed-dose combination antiretroviral tablets in Malawi and Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate nevirapine concentrations in African HIV-infected children receiving divided Triomune tablets (stavudine+lamivudine+nevirapine). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Steady-state plasma nevirapine concentrations were determined in Malawian and Zambian children aged 8 months to 18 years receiving Triomune in routine outpatient settings. Predictors from height-for-age, body mass index (BMI)-for-age, age, sex, post-dose sampling time and dose/m2/day were investigated using centre-stratified regression with backwards elimination (P<0.1). RESULTS: Of the 71 Malawian and 56 Zambian children (median age 8.4 vs 8.5 years, height-for-age -3.15 vs -1.84, respectively), only 1 (3%) of those prescribed > or =300 mg/m2/day nevirapine had subtherapeutic concentrations (<3 mg/l) compared with 22 (23%) of those prescribed <300 mg/m2/day; most children with subtherapeutic nevirapine concentrations were taking half or quarter Triomune tablets. Lower nevirapine concentrations were independently associated with lower height-for-age (indicating stunting) (0.37 mg/l per unit higher [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.003, +0.74]; P=0.05), lower prescribed dose/m2 (+0.89 mg/l per 50 mg/m2 higher [95% CI: 0.32, 1.46]; P=0.002) and higher BMI-for-age (indicating lack of wasting) (-0.42 mg/l per unit higher [95% CI: -0.80, -0.04]; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Currently available adult fixed-dose combination tablets are not well suited to children, particularly at younger ages: Triomune 30 is preferable to Triomune 40 because of the higher dose of nevirapine relative to stavudine. Further research is required to confirm that concentrations are reduced in stunted children but increased in wasted children. Development of appropriate paediatric fixed-dose combination tablets is essential if antiretroviral therapy is to be made widely available to children in resource-limited settings.

The epidemiology of HIV and HSV-2 infections among women participating in microbicide and vaccine feasibility studies in Northern Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: To prepare for future HIV prevention trials, we conducted prospective cohort studies among women working in food and recreational facilities in northern Tanzania. We examined the prevalence and incidence of HIV and HSV-2, and associated risk factors. METHODS: Women aged 18-44 years working in food and recreational facilities were screened to determine their eligibility for the studies. Between 2008-2010, HIV-negative women were enrolled and followed for 12 months. At enrolment and 3-monthly, we collected socio-demographic and behavioural data, and performed clinical examinations for collection of biological specimens that were tested for reproductive tract infections. Risk factors for HIV and HSV-2 incidence were investigated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We screened 2,229 and enrolled 1,378 women. The median age was 27 years (interquartile range, IQR 22, 33), and median duration working at current facility was 2 years. The prevalences of HIV at screening and HSV-2 at enrolment were 16% and 67%, respectively. Attendance at the 12-month visit was 86%. HIV and HSV-2 incidence rates were 3.7 (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.8,5.1) and 28.6 (95% CI: 23.5,35.0)/100 person-years, respectively. Women who were separated, divorced, or widowed were at increased risk of HIV (adjusted incidence rate ratio, aRR = 6.63; 95% CI: 1.97,22.2) and HSV-2 (aRR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.15,3.47) compared with married women. Women reporting ≥3 partners in the past 3 months were at higher HIV risk compared with women with 0-1 partner (aRR = 4.75; 95% CI: 2.10,10.8), while those who had reached secondary education or above were at lower risk of HSV-2 compared with women with incomplete primary education (aRR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.22,0.82). CONCLUSIONS: HIV and HSV-2 rates remain substantially higher in this cohort than in the general population, indicating urgent need for effective interventions. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of conducting trials to test new interventions in this highly-mobile population.

Deciphering the complex distribution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtypes among different cohorts in Northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Increased understanding of the genetic diversity of HIV-1 is challenging but important in the development of an effective vaccine. We aimed to describe the distribution of HIV-1 subtypes in northern Tanzania among women enrolled in studies preparing for HIV-1 prevention trials (hospitality facility-worker cohorts), and among men and women in an open cohort demographic surveillance system (Kisesa cohort). METHODS: The polymerase encompassing partial reverse transcriptase was sequenced and phylogenetic analysis performed and subtype determined. Questionnaires documented demographic data. We examined factors associated with subtype using multinomial logistic regression, adjusted for study, age, and sex. RESULTS: Among 140 individuals (125 women and 15 men), subtype A1 predominated (54, 39%), followed by C (46, 33%), D (25, 18%) and unique recombinant forms (URFs) (15, 11%). There was weak evidence to suggest different subtype frequencies by study (for example, 18% URFs in the Kisesa cohort versus 5-9% in the hospitality facility-worker cohorts; adjusted relative-risk ratio (aRR) = 2.35 [95% CI 0.59,9.32]; global p = 0.09). Compared to men, women were less likely to have subtype D versus A (aRR = 0.12 [95% CI 0.02,0.76]; global p = 0.05). There was a trend to suggest lower relative risk of subtype D compared to A with older age (aRR = 0.44 [95% CI 0.23,0.85] per 10 years; global p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We observed multiple subtypes, confirming the complex genetic diversity of HIV-1 strains circulating in northern Tanzania, and found some differences between cohorts and by age and sex. This has important implications for vaccine design and development, providing opportunity to determine vaccine efficacy in diverse HIV-1 strains.

Plasma HIV viral rebound following protocol-indicated cessation of ART commenced in primary and chronic HIV infection.

OBJECTIVES: The magnitude of HIV viral rebound following ART cessation has consequences for clinical outcome and onward transmission. We compared plasma viral load (pVL) rebound after stopping ART initiated in primary (PHI) and chronic HIV infection (CHI). DESIGN: Two populations with protocol-indicated ART cessation from SPARTAC (PHI, n = 182) and SMART (CHI, n = 1450) trials. METHODS: Time for pVL to reach pre-ART levels after stopping ART was assessed in PHI using survival analysis. Differences in pVL between PHI and CHI populations 4 weeks after stopping ART were examined using linear and logistic regression. Differences in pVL slopes up to 48 weeks were examined using linear mixed models and viral burden was estimated through a time-averaged area-under-pVL curve. CHI participants were categorised by nadir CD4 at ART stop. RESULTS: Of 171 PHI participants, 71 (41.5%) rebounded to pre-ART pVL levels, at a median of 50 (95% CI 48-51) weeks after stopping ART. Four weeks after stopping treatment, although the proportion with pVL ≥ 400 copies/ml was similar (78% PHI versus 79% CHI), levels were 0.45 (95% CI 0.26-0.64) log(10) copies/ml lower for PHI versus CHI, and remained lower up to 48 weeks. Lower CD4 nadir in CHI was associated with higher pVL after ART stop. Rebound for CHI participants with CD4 nadir >500 cells/mm(3) was comparable to that experienced by PHI participants. CONCLUSIONS: Stopping ART initiated in PHI and CHI was associated with viral rebound to levels conferring increased transmission risk, although the level of rebound was significantly lower and sustained in PHI compared to CHI.

Nevirapine, stavudine and lamivudine pharmacokinetics in African children on paediatric fixed-dose combination tablets.

OBJECTIVE: Triomune Baby and Junior have been developed in response to the urgent need for appropriate paediatric fixed-dose combination antiretroviral tablets, with higher nevirapine to stavudine and lamivudine ratios than adult tablets, in accordance with paediatric recommendations. We determined whether this ratio results in optimal exposure in the target population. METHODS: Seventy-one Zambian children were treated with Triomune Baby or Junior dosed according to weight bands. After 4 weeks or more, a 12-h pharmacokinetic curve was recorded. Antiretroviral plasma concentrations were assayed by high-performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS: Six children were excluded because of poor adherence. Of the remaining 65, 24 (37%) were female, 24 (37%) weighed less than 15 kg and most were malnourished. Mean (range) nevirapine C12h, Cmax and AUC12h of 6.0 (1.4, 16.9) mg/l, 10.0 (3.8, 22.5) mg/l and 94.4 (32.1, 232) mg/l per hour were higher than those reported in adults. Nevirapine C12h was subtherapeutic (< 3.0 mg/l) in four children (6%). Mean stavudine and lamivudine C12h, Cmax, AUC12h (< 0.015 mg/l, 0.45 mg/l, 1.05 mg/l per hour and 0.09 mg/l, 1.33 mg/l, 5.42 mg/l per hour) were comparable to adults. There was no evidence of a difference in nevirapine AUC12h across weight bands (P = 0.2), whereas the difference in stavudine (P = 0.0003) and lamivudine AUC12h (P = 0.01) was driven by the single weight band with unequal dosing. CONCLUSION: Nevirapine concentrations were higher but more variable than in adults; the pharmacokinetic parameters of stavudine and lamivudine were comparable to adults. As nevirapine underdosing is of greater concern than overdosing, the Triomune Baby and Junior ratio appears to be appropriate for children weighing 6 kg and over. Further research is required for children under 6 kg.

Survival following HIV infection of a cohort followed up from seroconversion in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate changes over calendar time in survival following HIV seroconversion in the era of HAART and to provide updated survival estimates. METHODS: Using data from a UK cohort of persons with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion, we analysed time from seroconversion to death from any cause using Cox models, adjusted for prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier methods were then used to determine the expected survival in each calendar period. RESULTS: 2275 seroconverters were included with 18 695 person-years of follow up. A total of 444 (20%) died. The relative risk of death, compared with pre-1996, decreased over time to 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.81], 0.24 (0.17-0.34), 0.14 (0.10-0.21), 0.08 (0.05-0.13) and 0.03 (0.02-0.06) in 1996-1997, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2004-2006, respectively. An elevated risk of death was associated with older age at seroconversion [hazard ratio (HR), 1.49; 95% CI, 1.34-1.66 per 10-year increase] and HIV infection through injecting drug use (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.17-2.00). In 2000-2006, the proportion of individuals expected to survive 5, 10 and 15 years following seroconversion was 99%, 94% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Survival following HIV seroconversion has continued to improve over calendar time in our cohort, even in the more recent years of HAART availability. HIV seroconverters, by definition identified early in their infection, are likely to have the greatest opportunity for intervention; if similar high survival expectations are to be seen in the wider HIV-infected population, early diagnosis is likely to be crucial.