Participatory scenario planning to facilitate human-wildlife coexistence.

Fostering human-wildlife coexistence requires transdisciplinary approaches that integrate multiple sectors, account for complexity and uncertainty, and ensure stakeholder participation. One such approach is participatory scenario planning, but to date, this approach has not been used in human-wildlife contexts. We devised a template for how participatory scenario planning can be applied to identify potential avenues for improving human-wildlife coexistence. We drew on 3 conceptual building blocks, namely the SEEDS framework, the notion of critical uncertainties, and the three-horizons technique. To illustrate the application of the proposed template, we conducted a case study in the Zambezi region of Namibia. We held 5 multistakeholder workshops that involved local people as well as numerous nongovernment and government stakeholders. We identified 14 important wildlife species that generated multiple services and disservices. The subsequent benefits and burdens, in turn, were inequitably distributed among stakeholders. Government actors played particularly influential roles in shaping social-ecological outcomes. We identified 2 critical uncertainties for the future: the nature of governance (fragmented vs. collaborative) and the type of wildlife economy (hunting vs. photography based). Considering these uncertainties resulted in 4 plausible scenarios describing future human-wildlife coexistence. Stakeholders did not agree on a single preferred scenario, but nevertheless agreed on several high-priority strategies. Bridging the remaining gaps among actors will require ongoing deliberation among stakeholders. Navigating the complex challenges posed by living with wildlife requires moving beyond disciplinary approaches. To that end, our template could prove useful in many landscapes around the world.

Planeación de Escenarios Participativos para Facilitar la Coexistencia Humano-Fauna Resumen El fomento a la coexistencia humano-fauna requiere de estrategias transdisciplinarias que integren a múltiples sectores, consideren la complejidad y la incertidumbre y aseguren la participación de los actores. Una de estas estrategias es la planeación de escenarios de participación, pero hasta la fecha no se ha usado dentro de contextos humano-fauna. Diseñamos un modelo para poder aplicar la planeación de escenarios participativos para identificar vías potenciales para mejorar la coexistencia humano-fauna. Nos basamos en tres componentes conceptuales básicos, principalmente el marco de trabajo SEEDS, la noción de incertidumbres críticas y la técnica de los tres horizontes. Para ejemplificar la aplicación del modelo propuesto, realizamos un estudio de caso en la región del Zambeze en Namibia. Realizamos cinco talleres con múltiples actores, los cuales involucraron a los habitantes locales y a numerosos actores gubernamentales y no gubernamentales. Identificamos 14 especies de fauna importantes que generan múltiples servicios y perjuicios. Los beneficios y problemas subsecuentes, en cambio, estaban distribuidos injustamente entre los actores. Los actores gubernamentales tuvieron notablemente un papel de mucha influencia en la formación de los resultados socioecológicos. Identificamos dos incertidumbres importantes para el futuro: la naturaleza de la gestión (fragmentada versus colaborativa) y el tipo de economía faunística (basada en la cacería versus basada en la fotografía). Cuando consideramos estas incertidumbres, obtuvimos como resultado cuatro escenarios posibles descriptivos de la coexistencia humano-fauna en el futuro. Los actores no estuvieron de acuerdo sobre ningún escenario preferido; sin embargo, sí coincidieron en varias estrategias de prioridad alta. El cierre de las brechas restantes requerirá de una continua deliberación entre los actores. La navegación de los retos complejos generados por la convivencia con la fauna requiere ir más allá de las estrategias disciplinarias. Para este fin, nuestro modelo podría ser útil en muchos paisajes alrededor del mundo.

Governance Challenges at the Interface of Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation: A Multi-Level Case Study from Ethiopia.

Ensuring food security while also protecting biodiversity requires a governance system that can address intra- and intersectoral complexity. In this paper, we sought to explore the governance challenges surrounding food security and biodiversity conservation through an empirical study in Jimma zone, southwestern Ethiopia. We used bottom-up snowball sampling to identify stakeholders and then held semi-structured interviews with 177 stakeholders across multiple levels of governance. We also conducted 24 focus group discussions with local people. Data were transcribed and thematically analyzed for its contents. Challenges in the structure of institutions and policy incoherence were the key challenges identified for the governance of food security and biodiversity conservation. The challenges around institutional structure included incompatibilities of the nature of governing institutions with the complexity inherent within and between the two sectors examined. Incoherences in policy goals, instruments, and contradictions of policy output relative to the actual problems of food security and biodiversity further hampered effective governance of food security and biodiversity conservation. Notably, many of the challenges that influenced an individual sector also posed a challenge for the integrated governance of food security and biodiversity conservation, often in a more pronounced way. Based on our findings, we argue that governance in our case study area requires a more integrated and collaborative approach that pays attention to institutional interplay in order to ensure institutional fit and consistency across policy goals.

A social-ecological perspective on harmonizing food security and biodiversity conservation.

The major challenges of improving food security and biodiversity conservation are intricately linked. To date, the intersection of food security and biodiversity conservation has been viewed primarily through an agricultural "production lens"-for example, via the land sparing/sharing framework, or the concept of sustainable intensification. However, a productionist perspective has been criticized for being too narrow, and failing to consider other relevant factors, including policy, equity, and diversity. We propose an approach that conceptualizes rural landscapes as social-ecological systems embedded within intersecting multi-scalar processes. Based on such a framing, empirical research can be more clearly set in the context of system properties that may influence food security, biodiversity conservation, or both. We illustrate our approach through a description of contrasting agricultural systems within Brazil's Cerrado region. We emphasize the need for new empirical research involving systematic comparisons of social-ecological system properties in landscapes threatened by food insecurity and ecosystem degradation.

Incorporating anthropogenic effects into trophic ecology: predator-prey interactions in a human-dominated landscape.

Apex predators perform important functions that regulate ecosystems worldwide. However, little is known about how ecosystem regulation by predators is influenced by human activities. In particular, how important are top-down effects of predators relative to direct and indirect human-mediated bottom-up and top-down processes? Combining data on species' occurrence from camera traps and hunting records, we aimed to quantify the relative effects of top-down and bottom-up processes in shaping predator and prey distributions in a human-dominated landscape in Transylvania, Romania. By global standards this system is diverse, including apex predators (brown bear and wolf), mesopredators (red fox) and large herbivores (roe and red deer). Humans and free-ranging dogs represent additional predators in the system. Using structural equation modelling, we found that apex predators suppress lower trophic levels, especially herbivores. However, direct and indirect top-down effects of humans affected the ecosystem more strongly, influencing species at all trophic levels. Our study highlights the need to explicitly embed humans and their influences within trophic cascade theory. This will greatly expand our understanding of species interactions in human-modified landscapes, which compose the majority of the Earth's terrestrial surface.

Outcome for stage II and III rectal and colon cancer equally good after treatment improvement over three decades.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the outcome for stage II and III rectal cancer patients compared to stage II and III colonic cancer patients with regard to 5-year cause-specific survival (CSS), overall survival, and local and combined recurrence rates over time. METHODS: This prospective cohort study identified 3,355 consecutive patients with adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum and treated in our colorectal unit between 1981 and 2011, for investigation. The study was restricted to International Union Against Cancer (UICC) stages II and III. Postoperative mortality and histological incomplete resection were excluded, which left 995 patients with colonic cancer and 726 patients with rectal cancer for further analysis. RESULTS: Five-year CSS rates improved for colonic cancer from 65.0% for patients treated between 1981 and 1986 to 88.1% for patients treated between 2007 and 2011. For rectal cancer patients, the respective 5-year CSS rates improved from 53.4% in the first observation period to 89.8% in the second one. The local recurrence rate for rectal cancer dropped from 34.2% in the years 1981-1986 to 2.1% in the years 2007-2011. In the last decade of observation, prognosis for rectal cancer was equal to that for colon cancer (CSS 88.6 vs. 86.7%, p = 0.409). CONCLUSION: Survival of patients with colon and rectal cancer has continued to improve over the last three decades. After major changes in treatment strategy including introduction of total mesorectal excision and neoadjuvant (radio)chemotherapy, prognosis for stage II and III rectal cancer is at least as good as for stage II and III colonic cancer.

Bird community responses to the edge between suburbs and reserves.

New insights into community-level responses at the urban fringe, and the mechanisms underlying them, are needed. In our study, we investigated the compositional distinctiveness and variability of a breeding bird community at both sides of established edges between suburban residential areas and woodland reserves in Canberra, Australia. Our goals were to determine if: (1) community-level responses were direct (differed with distance from the edge, independent of vegetation) or indirect (differed in response to edge-related changes in vegetation), and (2) if guild-level responses provided the mechanism underpinning community-level responses. We found that suburbs and reserves supported significantly distinct bird communities. The suburban bird community, characterised by urban-adapted native and exotic species, had a weak direct edge response, with decreasing compositional variability with distance from the edge. In comparison, the reserve bird community, characterised by woodland-dependent species, was related to local tree and shrub cover. This was not an indirect response, however, as tree and shrub cover was not related to edge distance. We found that the relative richness of nesting, foraging and body size guilds also displayed similar edge responses, indicating that they underpinned the observed community-level responses. Our study illustrates how community-level responses provide valuable insights into how communities respond to differences in resources between two contrasting habitats. Further, the effects of the suburban matrix penetrate into reserves for greater distances than previously thought. Suburbs and adjacent reserves, however, provided important habitat resources for many native species and the conservation of these areas should not be discounted from continued management strategies.

Participatory co-learning for human-wildlife coexistence: Reflections on a novel program applying systems thinking, nonviolent communication, and learning-based approaches.

As wildlife habitats become increasingly fragmented, sharing landscapes with wildlife is becoming difficult and complex. Because stakeholders with diverging interests struggle to collaborate to manage human-wildlife interactions, new approaches are needed. Here we reflect on a novel participatory learning program we implemented with farmers in communal conservancies in the Zambezi region of Namibia. The 9 week program aimed to understand why human-wildlife conflict remained a challenge. We combined three theoretical framings in the program design-systems thinking, nonviolent communication, and learning based approaches. We summarize key outcomes of each session and reflect on the overall program. We found a synergistic effect of the three framings and concluded that our integrated program had been a useful collaborative learning tool to understand the human-wildlife governance system, identify interventions, empower communities, and build capacity for collaboration to improve human wellbeing and human-wildlife interactions. Drawing on our experience, we make suggestions for how the program could be adapted for similar or other environmental problems elsewhere.

Navigating social-ecological changes: A mixed-method analysis of extensive livestock systems in southern Patagonian forests, Argentina.

Sustainable livestock management plays a crucial role in food production, climate change mitigation, and cultural preservation. Our study aimed to identify and analyse the diversity of social-ecological conditions that characterize extensive livestock systems in southern Patagonia. We integrated data collected from interviews and secondary sources and analysed data using hierarchical cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling to identify distinct ranching types. A qualitative analysis of key informant interviews identified key social-ecological changes for each type. The results emphasize the impact of administration, production, and biophysical factors on shaping different livestock ranching schemes. Further, we identified three significant social-ecological changes driving the dynamics of these systems, including shifts from (1) sheep to cattle ranching, (2) domestic to feral cattle ranching, and (3) landowners to tenant land managers. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to develop strategies tailored to diverse realities, ensuring the sustainability of livestock systems in Tierra del Fuego.

Lessons from Ethiopian coffee landscapes for global conservation in a post-wild world.

The reality for conservation of biodiversity across our planet is that all ecosystems are modified by humans in some way or another. Thus, biodiversity conservation needs to be implemented in multifunctional landscapes. In this paper we use a fascinating coffee-dominated landscape in southwest Ethiopia as our lens to derive general lessons for biodiversity conservation in a post-wild world. Considering a hierarchy of scales from genes to multi-species interactions and social-ecological system contexts, we focus on (i) threats to the genetic diversity of crop wild relatives, (ii) the mechanisms behind trade-offs between biodiversity and agricultural yields, (iii) underexplored species interactions suppressing pest and disease levels, (iv) how the interactions of climate change and land-use change sometimes provide opportunities for restoration, and finally, (v) how to work closely with stakeholders to identify scenarios for sustainable development. The story on how the ecology and evolution of coffee within its indigenous distribution shape biodiversity conservation from genes to social-ecological systems can inspire us to view other landscapes with fresh eyes. The ubiquitous presence of human-nature interactions demands proactive, creative solutions to foster biodiversity conservation not only in remote protected areas but across entire landscapes inhabited by people.

The social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition.

Expanding in both scope and scale, ecosystem restoration needs to embrace complex social-ecological dynamics. To help scientists and practitioners navigate ever new demands on restoration, we propose the "social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition" as a conceptual model to approach dynamically shifting social and ecological restoration goals. The model focuses on three dynamic aspects of restoration, namely degrading processes, restoration goals and remedial actions. As these three change through time, new reinforcing and balancing feedback mechanisms characterize the restoration process. We illustrate our model through case studies in which restoration has become increasingly ambitious through time, namely forest landscape restoration in Rwanda and grassland restoration in Germany. The ladder of restoration ambition offers a new way of applying social-ecological systems thinking to ecosystem restoration. Additionally, it raises awareness of social-ecological trade-offs, power imbalances and conflicting goals in restoration projects, thereby laying an important foundation for finding more practicable and fairer solutions.

Effect of planning for connectivity on linear reserve networks.

Although the concept of connectivity is decades old, it remains poorly understood and defined, and some argue that habitat quality and area should take precedence in conservation planning instead. However, fragmented landscapes are often characterized by linear features that are inherently connected, such as streams and hedgerows. For these, both representation and connectivity targets may be met with little effect on the cost, area, or quality of the reserve network. We assessed how connectivity approaches affect planning outcomes for linear habitat networks by using the stock-route network of Australia as a case study. With the objective of representing vegetation communities across the network at a minimal cost, we ran scenarios with a range of representation targets (10%, 30%, 50%, and 70%) and used 3 approaches to account for connectivity (boundary length modifier, Euclidean distance, and landscape-value [LV]). We found that decisions regarding the target and connectivity approach used affected the spatial allocation of reserve systems. At targets ≥50%, networks designed with the Euclidean distance and LV approaches consisted of a greater number of small reserves. Hence, by maximizing both representation and connectivity, these networks compromised on larger contiguous areas. However, targets this high are rarely used in real-world conservation planning. Approaches for incorporating connectivity into the planning of linear reserve networks that account for both the spatial arrangement of reserves and the characteristics of the intervening matrix highlight important sections that link the landscape and that may otherwise be overlooked.

Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

The traditional ecological knowledge conundrum.

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is gaining prominence among ecologists because it can help inform ecosystem management. Yet, sometimes TEK is maintained not because of positive values about the environment, but because of poverty and a lack of options. We discuss this conundrum and present hypotheses for future research.

Future-proofing ecosystem restoration through enhancing adaptive capacity.

Social-ecological ecosystem restoration involves interacting challenges, including climate change, resource overexploitation and political instability. To prepare for these and other emerging threats, we synthesized key restoration and social-ecological systems literature and derived three guiding themes that can help to enhance the adaptive capacity of restoration sites: (i) work with the existing system, (ii) create self-sustaining, adaptive systems, and (iii) foster diversity and participation. We propose a two-step approach and provide an example from Rwanda detailing the application of these principles. While site-specific activities have to be designed and implemented by local practitioners, our synthesis can guide forward-thinking restoration practice.

Global assessment of the non-equilibrium concept in rangelands.

The non-equilibrium concept of rangeland dynamics predicts that the potential for grazing-induced degradation is low in rangelands with relatively variable precipitation. To date, evidence in support of the non-equilibrium concept has been inconsistent. Using a standardized protocol, including a newly developed global map of rainfall variability, we reviewed the incidence of degradation in relation to rainfall variability across 58 published studies. We distinguished between (1) zonal degradation (i.e., degradation independent of water and key resources), (2) degradation in the presence of key resources, and (3) degradation in the presence of water. For studies not affected by proximity to permanent water or key resources, we found strong support for the non-equilibrium concept for rangelands. Zonal degradation was absent at CV (coefficient of variation) values above 33%, which has been proposed as a critical threshold. Grazing degradation was almost entirely restricted to areas with relatively stable annual precipitation as expressed by a low CV, or to rangelands with key resources or water points nearby. To better understand rangeland dynamics, we recommend that future studies use globally comparable measures of degradation and rainfall variability. Our work underlines that rangelands with relatively stable rainfall patterns, and those with access to water or key resources, are potentially vulnerable to degradation. Grazing management in such areas should incorporate strategic rest periods. Such rest periods effectively mimic natural fluctuations in herbivore populations, which are a defining characteristic of non-degraded rangelands occurring under highly variable precipitation regimes.

Reversing a tree regeneration crisis in an endangered ecoregion.

Global food demand is growing rapidly. Livestock grazing can provide a valuable source of protein, but conventional grazing is often unsustainable. We studied an 800,000-ha section of a threatened ecoregion in southeastern Australia. Conventional management in the region involves continuous livestock grazing with few rest periods and regular fertilizer application. By using remotely sensed data on tree cover and extensive field data on livestock grazing regimes, soil chemistry, tree diameters, and tree regeneration, we show that the region is facing a tree regeneration crisis. Under conventional management, across the region, millions of hectares of land currently supporting tens of millions of trees will be treeless within decades from now. This would have severe negative ramifications for biodiversity and key ecosystem services, including water infiltration and shade provision for livestock. However, we identified an unexpected win-win solution for tree regeneration and commercial grazing. A relatively new practice in the region is fast-rotational grazing, characterized by prolonged rest periods in between short, intensive grazing events. The probability of regeneration under fast-rotational grazing was up to 4-fold higher than under conventional grazing, and it did not differ significantly from the probability of regeneration in ungrazed areas. In addition, trees were more likely to regenerate where soil nutrient levels were low. These findings suggest that the tree regeneration crisis can be reversed by applying low-input, fast-rotational grazing. New policy settings supporting these practices could signal a turning point for the region, from ecological decline to ecological recovery.

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts.

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital-equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth's current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.