Qualitative value of information provides a transparent and repeatable method for identifying critical uncertainty.

Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evaluation of critical uncertainty, using the expected value of information, may require more resources than are available in the early stages of conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate the use of a qualitative index to the value of information (QVoI) to prioritize which sources of uncertainty to reduce regarding the use of prescribed fire to benefit Eastern Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis), Yellow Rails (Coterminous noveboracensis), and Mottled Ducks (Anas fulvigula; hereafter, focal species) in high marshes of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Prescribed fire has been used as a management tool in Gulf of Mexico high marshes throughout the last 30+ years; however, effects of periodic burning on the focal species and the optimal conditions for burning marshes to improve habitat remain unknown. We followed a structured decision-making framework to develop conceptual models, which we then used to identify sources of uncertainty and articulate alternative hypotheses about prescribed fire in high marshes. We used QVoI to evaluate the sources of uncertainty based on their Magnitude, Relevance for decision-making, and Reducibility. We found that hypotheses related to the optimal fire return interval and season were the highest priorities for study, whereas hypotheses related to predation rates and interactions among management techniques were lowest. These results suggest that learning about the optimal fire frequency and season to benefit the focal species might produce the greatest management benefit. In this case study, we demonstrate that QVoI can help managers decide where to apply limited resources to learn which specific actions will result in a higher likelihood of achieving the desired management objectives. Further, we summarize the strengths and limitations of QVoI and outline recommendations for its future use for prioritizing research to reduce uncertainty about system dynamics and the effects of management actions.

Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies.

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.

Sesgos en la Selección de Sitios y las Declinaciones Poblacionales Aparentes en los Estudios a Largo Plazo Resumen La detección de las declinaciones poblacionales es una tarea muy importante para la biología de la conservación. Las dificultades logísticas y la variabilidad espacio-temporal de las poblaciones complican la estimación de las declinaciones poblacionales. Por razones estadísticas, las estimaciones de las declinaciones poblacionales pueden estar sesgadas cuando se eligen los sitios de estudio con base en la abundancia de la especie focal. En esta situación, las declinaciones poblacionales aparentes probablemente sean detectadas sin que exista dicha declinación. Este sesgo en la selección del sitio está mencionado en la literatura, pero sabe poco sobre él. Usamos simulaciones y datos de poblaciones reales para examinar los efectos que tienen los sesgos en la selección de sitio sobre las inferencias que se tienen sobre las tendencias poblacionales. Usamos un método censurado por la izquierda para detectar los patrones en el tamaño poblacional consistentes con el sesgo en la selección de sitios. Este sesgo es una consideración importante para los biólogos de la conservación y ofrecemos sugerencias para minimizarlo o mitigarlo en el análisis y diseño de los estudios.

Levels of Mercury in Feathers of Clapper Rails (Rallus crepitans) over 45 Years in Coastal Salt Marshes of New Hanover County, North Carolina.

We sampled clapper rail (Rallus crepitans) feathers from museum specimens collected between 1965 and 2010 to investigate changes in mercury (Hg) availability in coastal marshes of New Hanover County, North Carolina. Stable isotope analysis (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) was conducted to control for dietary shifts that may have influenced Hg exposure. Hg concentrations ranged from 0.96 to 9.22 µg/g (ppm), but showed no significant trend over time; diet (δ(15)N) or foraging habitat (δ(13)C) also provided little to no explanatory power to the variation in Hg concentrations among clapper rails. Our findings suggest the bioavailability of Hg to clapper rails in coastal North Carolina salt marshes has remained consistent over time, despite the global trend of increasing mercury in many other bird species, providing an excellent baseline for any future assessment of Hg availability to salt marsh birds in coastal North Carolina.

Lessons learned from using wild-caught and captive-reared lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) in captive experiments.

Waterfowl are housed in captivity for research studies that are infeasible in the wild. Accommodating the unique requirements of semi-aquatic species in captivity while meeting experimental design criteria for research questions can be challenging and may have unknown effects on animal health. Thus, testing and standardizing best husbandry and care practices for waterfowl is necessary to facilitate proper husbandry and humane care while ensuring reliable and repeatable research results. To inform husbandry practices for captive-reared and wild-caught lesser scaup (Aythya affinis; hereafter, scaup), we assessed body mass and fat composition across two different aspects of husbandry, source population (captive-reared or wild caught), and housing densities (birds/m2). Our results suggest that housing scaup at low densities (≤0.6 m2/bird, P = 0.049) relative to other species can minimize negative health effects. Captive-reared scaup were heavier (P = 0.027) with greater body fat (P < 0.001) and exhibited fewer signs of stress during handling than wild-caught scaup. In our experience, scaup which are captive-reared from eggs collected in the wild were better for long-term captivity studies as they maintained body mass between and recovered lost body mass following trials. Researchers would benefit from carefully evaluating the tradeoffs of using short- and long-term captive methods on their research question before designing projects, husbandry practices, and housing facilities for waterfowl.

Water depth influences survival and predator-specific patterns of nest loss in three secretive marsh bird species.

Wetlands have become increasingly rare in the United States, negatively influencing wetland-dependent birds, and many remaining wetlands are intensively managed through seasonal dewatering mimicking historic flood pulses during spring and summer. However, water around nests may provide protection from terrestrial predators, and lowering water levels during the breeding season of wetland birds may increase predation risk and exacerbate marsh bird population declines. Understanding interactions between water depth, nesting marsh birds, and nest predators is critical to aid managers in developing a multi-species management approach in emergent wetlands. During the 2020 and 2021 breeding seasons, we examined nest survival of 148 marsh bird nests (American Coot, Fulica americana, n = 1; Common Gallinule, Gallinula galeata, n = 64; and Least Bittern; Ixobrychus exilis, n = 83) and installed cameras at 78 nests to identify predators at a large, restored floodplain wetland in Illinois where the primary management technique is seasonal water removal to stimulate germination of moist soil plants. We found nest predation of, and abandonment by, Least Bittern and Common Gallinule were related to shallower water, and early season, high volume dewatering. Least Bitterns nested more commonly along wetland edges and nests farther from the shore were more likely to survive. Similarly, we found mammalian depredation of nests and nest abandonment decreased when deeper water was present around nests. Alternatively, snake predation was observed earlier in the year prior to water removal from inundated emergent vegetation. Our results demonstrate water depth may be an important deterrent of nest predators, especially mammals, during the breeding season. Further, we recommend managers delay dewatering until after the nesting season at sites where management for conservation-priority marsh birds is a focus.

King rail (Rallus elegans) home range and microhabitat characteristics in western Lake Erie coastal marshes.

The king rail (Rallus elegans) is a secretive marsh bird that is threatened or endangered in eight of nine states and provinces in the Laurentian Great Lakes (Great Lakes) region. Available survey data suggests that this species has undergone population declines across this region and these are believed to have been driven by habitat loss and degradation. An improved understanding of the amount and type of habitat king rails require during the breeding season at sites within the Great Lakes region would inform and improve progress toward conservation goals. During 2019-2021, we caught and radio-tagged 14 king rails in northwestern Ohio and southeastern Michigan within impounded coastal wetlands of western Lake Erie. We used radio telemetry to identify breeding season (May-August) home-range characteristics and third order habitat selection within home ranges (hereafter microhabitat). For the birds whose home range stabilized (N = 10), we found a mean home-range size of 8.8 ha (±1.63 [SE]; range = 1.9 to 15.8). We generated a classification tree to determine which habitat characteristics were associated with king rail presence within home ranges in our study. We found that vegetative density within home ranges was particularly associated with king rail presence. Phragmites australis was also associated with king rail presence, despite its invasiveness and negative ecological impacts in the region, and could be selectively maintained to benefit king rails. Our results suggest that managers may be able to provide microhabitat for king rails by maintaining water depths of 6 to 17 cm and by promoting native, robust vegetation in the genera Carex and Juncus. Our findings could help inform wetland managers and conservation planners in the Great Lakes region, particularly in western Lake Erie coastal marshes, of patch sizes, water depths, plant communities, and vegetative structure preferred by king rails.

Marsh bird occupancy of wetlands managed for waterfowl in the Midwestern USA.

Marsh birds (rallids, bitterns, and grebes) depend on emergent wetlands, and habitat loss and degradation are the primary suspected causes for population declines among many marsh bird species. We evaluated the effect of natural wetland characteristics, wetland management practices, and surrounding landscape characteristics on marsh bird occupancy in Illinois during late spring and early summer 2015-2017. We conducted call-back surveys following the North American Standardized Marsh Bird Survey Protocol three times annually at all sites (2015 n = 49, 2016 n = 57, 2017 n = 55). Across all species and groups, detection probability declined 7.1% ± 2.1 each week during the marsh bird survey period. Wetlands managed for waterfowl (ducks, geese, and swans) had greater occupancy than reference wetlands. Marsh bird occupancy increased with greater wetland complexity, intermediate levels of waterfowl management intensity, greater proportions of surface water inundation, and greater proportions of persistent emergent vegetation cover. Wetland management practices that retain surface water during the growing season, encourage perennial emergent plants (e.g., Typha sp.), and increase wetland complexity could be used to provide habitat suitable for waterfowl and marsh birds.

Unpaid work and access to science professions.

Unpaid work in the sciences is advocated as an entry route into scientific careers. We compared the success of UK science graduates who took paid or unpaid work six-months after graduation in obtaining a high salary or working in a STEM (Science, Technology Engineering and Mathematics) field 3.5 years later. Initially taking unpaid work was associated with lower earnings and lower persistence in STEM compared with paid work, but those using personal connections to obtain unpaid positions were as likely to persist in STEM as paid workers. Obtaining a position in STEM six months after graduation was associated with higher rates of persistence in STEM compared with a position outside STEM for both paid and unpaid workers, but the difference is considerably smaller for unpaid workers. Socio-economic inequality in the likelihood of obtaining entry in STEM by taking an unpaid position is a well-founded concern for scientific workforce diversity.

Sora (Porzana carolina) autumn migration habitat use.

Palustrine wetland management across the USA is often conducted under a moist soil management framework aimed at providing energetic resources for non-breeding waterfowl. Moist soil management techniques typically include seasonal water-level manipulations and mechanical soil disturbance to create conditions conducive to germination and growth of early successional, seed-producing wetland plants. The assumption is that providing stopover and wintering habitat for non-breeding waterfowl will also accommodate life-history needs of a broader suite of migratory waterbirds including shorebirds, wading birds and marsh birds. Although studies of wetlands provide some evidence to support this assumption for shorebirds and wading birds, there is less information on how other marshbirds respond. Sora (Porzana carolina) are a species of migratory rail that depend on wetlands year round as they migrate across North America. It is a species for which the consequences of wetland management decisions directed towards non-breeding waterfowl are unknown. We conducted nocturnal surveys on 10 public properties in Missouri, USA during autumn migration during 2012-2016 to examine sora habitat use in wetland impoundments managed to enhance the production of moist soil vegetation. We found a positive relationship with sora presence and mean water depth and annual moist soil vegetation; sora used, on average, deeper water than was available across surveyed impoundments and used locations with a higher percentage of annual moist soil vegetation than was available. We found a negative relationship with sora use and upland vegetation, woody vegetation and open water. We found sora using deeper water than have previously been reported for autumn migration, and that moist soil management techniques used on Missouri's intensively managed public wetland areas may be compatible with sora autumn migration stopover habitat requirements.