Ibudilast reduces slowly enlarging lesions in progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Ibudilast has shown beneficial effects on several imaging outcomes in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). Slowly enlarging lesions are a proposed imaging biomarker of compartmentalized inflammation within chronic active lesions. OBJECTIVE: To assess the treatment effect of ibudilast on slowly enlarging lesion volumes over 96 weeks from a phase II clinical trial of ibudilast (Secondary and Primary Progressive Ibudilast NeuroNEXT Trial in Multiple Sclerosis [SPRINT-MS]). METHODS: In total, 255 participants with progressive MS from 28 sites were randomized to oral ibudilast or placebo. Participants with at least four analyzable magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were included. Slowly enlarging lesions were quantified using Jacobian determinant maps. A linear model was used to assess the effect of ibudilast. Magnetization transfer ratio within slowly enlarging lesions was assessed to determine the effect of ibudilast on tissue integrity. RESULTS: In total, 195 participants were included in this analysis. Ibudilast significantly decreased slowly enlarging lesion volume (23%, p = 0.003). Ibudilast also reduced magnetization transfer ratio change in slowly enlarging lesions: 0.22%/year, p = 0.04. CONCLUSION: Ibudilast showed a significant effect on baseline volume of lesions that were slowly enlarging and magnetization transfer ratio in slowly enlarging lesions. The results support the use of slowly enlarging lesions for assessment of compartmentalized inflammation represented by chronic active lesions and provide further support for the neuroprotective effects of ibudilast in progressive MS.

Serum macrophage migration inhibitory factor levels predict brain atrophy in people with primary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is a cytokine linked to multiple sclerosis (MS) progression that is thought to be inhibited by ibudilast. SPRINT-MS was a phase 2 placebo-controlled trial of ibudilast in progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline MIF levels predict imaging outcomes and assess the effects of ibudilast on serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) MIF levels in people with PMS treated with ibudilast. METHODS: Participants in the SPRINT-MS trial were treated with either ibudilast or placebo and underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) every 24 weeks over a duration of 96 weeks. MIF was measured in serum and CSF. RESULTS: MIF levels were compared with imaging outcomes in 223 participants from the SPRINT-MS study. In the primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) cohort, males had higher serum (p < 0.001) and CSF (p = 0.01) MIF levels, as compared with females. Higher baseline serum MIF levels in PPMS were associated with faster brain atrophy (beta = -0.113%, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.204% to -0.021%; p = 0.016). These findings were not observed in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Ibudilast did not affect either serum or CSF MIF levels. CONCLUSIONS: Serum MIF levels were associated with male sex and predicted brain atrophy in PPMS, but not SPMS. Ibudilast did not demonstrate an effect on MIF levels, as compared with placebo, although we cannot exclude a functional effect.

Effect of ibudilast on thalamic magnetization transfer ratio and volume in progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Thalamic volume (TV) is a sensitive biomarker of disease burden of injury in multiple sclerosis (MS) and appears to reflect overall lesion loads. Ibudilast showed significant treatment effect on brain atrophy and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) of normal-appearing brain tissue but not in new/enlarging T2 lesion in the SPRINT-MS randomized clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of ibudilast on thalamic tissue integrity and volume in the SPRINT-MS. METHODS: A total of 255 participants with progressive MS were randomized to oral ibudilast or placebo, and thalamic MTR and normalized TV over 96 weeks were quantified. Mixed-effect modeling assessed treatment effects on the thalamic MTR and TV, separately. Similarly, the measures were compared between the participants with confirmed disability progression (CDP). RESULTS: Ibudilast's treatment effect was observed compared to placebo for thalamic MTR (p = 0.03) but not for TV (p = 0.68) while TV correlated with T2 lesion volume (p < 0.001). CDP associated with thalamic MTR (p = 0.04) but not with TV (p = 0.7). CONCLUSION: Ibudilast showed an effect on thalamic MTR, which was associated with CDP, suggesting a clinically relevant effect on thalamic tissue integrity. However, the treatment effect was not observed in TV, suggesting that thalamic atrophy is more closely associated with global inflammatory activity than local tissue integrity. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01982942.

The relevance of fatigue to relapse rate in multiple sclerosis: Applying patient preference data to the OPTIMUM trial.

BACKGROUND: In the OPTIMUM trial in patients with relapsing MS, treatment differences in annualized relapse rate (ARR, 0.088) and change in fatigue at week 108 (3.57 points, measured using the Fatigue Symptoms and Impacts Questionnaire-Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis, symptom domain (FSIQ-RMS-S)) favored ponesimod over teriflunomide. However, the importance of the fatigue outcome to patients was unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the importance of the OPTIMUM FSIQ-RMS-S results using data from an MS discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS: The DCE included components to correlate levels of physical and cognitive fatigue with FSIQ-RMS-S scores. Changes in relapses/year and time to MS progression equivalent to the treatment difference in fatigue in OPTIMUM were determined for similar fatigue levels as mean baseline fatigue in OPTIMUM. RESULTS: DCE participants would accept 0.06 more relapses/year or a 0.15-0.17 year decrease in time to MS progression for a 3.57-point difference in physical fatigue on the FSIQ-RMS-S. To improve cognitive fatigue by 3.57-points on the FSIQ-RMS-S, DCE participants would accept 0.09-0.10 more relapses/year or a 0.24-0.28 year decrease in time to MS progression. CONCLUSION: MS patients would accept 0.06 more relapses/year to change their fatigue by a similar magnitude as the between-treatment difference observed in the OPTIMUM trial.

The impact of cigarette smoking on cognitive processing speed and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) and disability worsening. The relationship between smoking, cognitive processing speed, and brain atrophy remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of smoking on processing speed and brain volume in MS and to explore the longitudinal relationship between smoking and changes in processing speed. METHODS: A retrospective study of MS patients who completed the processing speed test (PST) between September 2015 and March 2020. Demographics, disease characteristics, smoking history, and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were collected. Cross-sectional associations between smoking, PST performance, whole-brain fraction (WBF), gray matter fraction (GMF), and thalamic fraction (TF) were assessed using multivariable linear regression. The longitudinal relationship between smoking and PST performance was assessed by linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: The analysis included 5536 subjects of whom 1314 had quantitative MRI within 90 days of PST assessment. Current smokers had lower PST scores than never smokers at baseline, and this difference persisted over time. Smoking was associated with reduced GMF but not with WBF or TF. CONCLUSION: Smoking has an adverse relationship with cognition and GMF. Although causality is not demonstrated, these observations support the importance of smoking cessation counseling in MS management.

Sensitivity of T1/T2-weighted ratio in detection of cortical demyelination is similar to magnetization transfer ratio using post-mortem MRI.

BACKGROUND: Detecting cortical demyelination using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains a challenge. Magnetization transfer ratio (MTR), T1-weighted/T2-weighted ratio (T1T2R), and T2-weighted (T2w) signal are sensitive to cortical demyelination, but their accuracy is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of postmortem T1T2R, MTR, and T2w in detecting cortical demyelination. METHODS: In situ postmortem MRIs from 9 patients were used to measure T1T2R, MTR, and T2w along the midline of cortical gray matter and classified as normal or abnormal. MRIs were co-registered and compared to hemispheric myelin staining. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of T1T2R, MTR, and T2w in detecting cortical demyelination were measured. RESULTS: The mean age (standard deviation) at death was 64.7 (+/-13.7) years with a disease duration of 23.8 (+/-10.5) years. The sensitivity was 78% for MTR, 75% for T1T2R, and 63% for T2w. The specificity was 46% (T2w), 13% (T1T2R), and 29% (MTR). The accuracy was 71% (T2w), 39% (MTR), and 42% (T1T2R). There were no significant differences between different MRI measures in cortical demyelination or intracortical/subpial lesion detection. CONCLUSIONS: Although somewhat sensitive, the modest specificity of conventional MRI modalities for cortical demyelination indicates that they are influenced by cortical changes other than demyelination. Improved acquisition and post-processing are needed to reliably measure cortical lesion load.

Long-term safety and efficacy of dimethyl fumarate for up to 13 years in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: Final ENDORSE study results.

BACKGROUND: Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) demonstrated favorable benefit-risk in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in phase-III DEFINE and CONFIRM trials, and ENDORSE extension. OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this study is assessing DMF safety/efficacy up to 13 years in ENDORSE. METHODS: Randomized patients received DMF 240 mg twice daily or placebo (PBO; Years 0-2), then DMF (Years 3-10; continuous DMF/DMF or PBO/DMF); maximum follow-up (combined studies), 13 years. RESULTS: By January 2020, 1736 patients enrolled/dosed in ENDORSE (median follow-up 8.76 years (ENDORSE range: 0.04-10.98) in DEFINE/CONFIRM and ENDORSE); 52% treated in ENDORSE for ⩾6 years. Overall, 551 (32%) patients experienced serious adverse events (mostly multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse or fall; one progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy); 243 (14%) discontinued treatment due to adverse events (4% gastrointestinal (GI) disorders). Rare opportunistic infections, malignancies, and serious herpes zoster occurred, irrespective of lymphocyte count. For DMF/DMF (n = 501), overall annualized relapse rate (ARR) remained low (0.143 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.120-0.169)), while for PBO/DMF (n = 249), ARR decreased after initiating DMF and remained low throughout (ARR 0-2 years, 0.330 (95% CI, 0.266-0.408); overall ARR (ENDORSE, 0.151 (95% CI, 0.118-0.194)). Over 10 years, 72% DMF/DMF and 73% PBO/DMF had no 24-week confirmed disability worsening. CONCLUSION: Sustained DMF safety/efficacy was observed in patients followed up to 13 years, supporting DMF's positive benefit/risk profile for long-term RRMS treatment.

Long-term efficacy and safety of siponimod in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: Analysis of EXPAND core and extension data up to >5 years.

BACKGROUND: Siponimod significantly reduced the risk of confirmed disability progression (CDP), worsening in cognitive processing speed (CPS), relapses, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of brain atrophy and inflammation versus placebo in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) patients in the Phase 3 EXPAND study. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess long-term efficacy and safety of siponimod 2 mg/day from the EXPAND study including the extension part, up to > 5 years. METHODS: In the open-label extension part, participants receiving placebo during the core part were switched to siponimod (placebo-siponimod group) and those on siponimod continued the same treatment (continuous siponimod group). RESULTS: Continuous siponimod reduced the risk of 6-month CDP by 22% (hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.78 (0.66-0.92) p = 0.0026) and 6-month confirmed worsening in CPS by 23% (HR (95% CI): 0.77 (0.65-0.92) p = 0.0047) versus the placebo-siponimod group. Sustained efficacy on annualized relapse rate, total and regional brain atrophy, and inflammatory disease activity was also observed. No new, unexpected safety signals for siponimod were identified over the long term. CONCLUSION: The sustained efficacy and consistent long-term safety profile of siponimod up to > 5 years support its clinical utility for long-term treatment of SPMS. Benefits in the continuous siponimod versus placebo-siponimod group highlight the significance of earlier treatment initiation. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01665144.

Effect of siponimod on magnetic resonance imaging measures of neurodegeneration and myelination in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: Gray matter atrophy and magnetization transfer ratio analyses from the EXPAND phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurements of gray matter (GM) atrophy and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR; correlate of myelination) may provide better insights than conventional MRI regarding brain tissue integrity/myelination in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of siponimod in the EXPAND trial on whole-brain and GM atrophy, newly formed normalized magnetization transfer ratio (nMTR) lesions, and nMTR-assessed integrity of normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT), cortical GM (cGM), and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM). METHODS: Patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) received siponimod (2 mg/day; n =1037) or placebo (n = 523). Endpoints included percentage change from baseline to months 12/24 in whole-brain, cGM, and thalamic volumes; change in nMTR from baseline to months 12/24 in NABT, cGM, and NAWM; MTR recovery in newly formed lesions. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, siponimod significantly reduced progression of whole-brain and GM atrophy over 12/24 months, and was associated with improvements in brain tissue integrity/myelination within newly formed nMTR lesions and across NABT, cGM, and NAWM over 24 months. Effects were consistent across age, disease duration, inflammatory activity subgroups, and disease severity. CONCLUSION: Siponimod reduced brain tissue damage in patients with SPMS as evidenced by objective measures of brain tissue integrity/myelination. This is consistent with central nervous system (CNS) effects observed in preclinical models. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01665144.

Charting a global research strategy for progressive MS-An international progressive MS Alliance proposal.

BACKGROUND: Progressive forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) affect more than 1 million individuals globally. Recent approvals of ocrelizumab for primary progressive MS and siponimod for active secondary progressive MS have opened the therapeutic door, though results from early trials of neuroprotective agents have been mixed. The recent introduction of the term 'active' secondary progressive MS into the therapeutic lexicon has introduced potential confusion to disease description and thereby clinical management. OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews recent progress, highlights continued knowledge and proposes, on behalf of the International Progressive MS Alliance, a global research strategy for progressive MS. METHODS: Literature searches of PubMed between 2015 and May, 2021 were conducted using the search terms "progressive multiple sclerosis", "primary progressive multiple sclerosis", "secondary progressive MS". Proposed strategies were developed through a series of in-person and virtual meetings of the International Progressive MS Alliance Scientific Steering Committee. RESULTS: Sustaining and accelerating progress will require greater understanding of underlying mechanisms, identification of potential therapeutic targets, biomarker discovery and validation, and conduct of clinical trials with improved trial design. Encouraging developments in symptomatic and rehabilitative interventions are starting to address ongoing challenges experienced by people with progressive MS. CONCLUSION: We need to manage these challenges and realise the opportunities in the context of a global research strategy, which will improve quality of life for people with progressive MS.

Real-world disease-modifying therapy pathways from administrative claims data in patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Over a dozen disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). Treatment guidelines focus on when to initiate, change, and discontinue treatment but provide little guidance on how to select or sequence DMTs. This study assessed sequencing patterns of DMTs in patients with newly diagnosed MS. METHODS: Adults newly diagnosed with MS in the United States were identified from January 2007 to October 2017 using IBM MarketScan database. Patients had ≥12 months of continuous enrollment prior to diagnosis and ≥ 2 years of follow-up. Treatment pathways consisting of up to 3 DMT courses were reported, and each treatment course ended with discontinuation, switch, or end of follow-up. RESULTS: In total, 14,627 MS patients were treated with DMTs and had ≥2 years of follow-up. More than 400 DMT treatment pathways were observed. Glatiramer acetate was the most common DMT; 40% of patients initiated this treatment. Among these, 51.3% had 2 DMT courses during follow-up and 26.5% had 3 DMT courses. Approximately 70% of patients switched or discontinued their initial DMT, and rates of switch and discontinuation differed by initial DMT. Injectable DMTs were used most commonly over the study period (87.5% as first course to 66.6% as third course). Oral DMTs were more common as second or third treatment courses (29.9% and 31.8%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A wide variety in treatment patterns were observed among patients newly diagnosed with MS. Further examination of DMT prescribing practices is needed to understand the reasons behind treatment discontinuation and treatment cycling.

Phase 2 Trial of Ibudilast in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: There are limited treatments for progressive multiple sclerosis. Ibudilast inhibits several cyclic nucleotide phosphodiesterases, macrophage migration inhibitory factor, and toll-like receptor 4 and can cross the blood-brain barrier, with potential salutary effects in progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: We enrolled patients with primary or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in a phase 2 randomized trial of oral ibudilast (≤100 mg daily) or placebo for 96 weeks. The primary efficacy end point was the rate of brain atrophy, as measured by the brain parenchymal fraction (brain size relative to the volume of the outer surface contour of the brain). Major secondary end points included the change in the pyramidal tracts on diffusion tensor imaging, the magnetization transfer ratio in normal-appearing brain tissue, the thickness of the retinal nerve-fiber layer, and cortical atrophy, all measures of tissue damage in multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: Of 255 patients who underwent randomization, 129 were assigned to ibudilast and 126 to placebo. A total of 53% of the patients in the ibudilast group and 52% of those in the placebo group had primary progressive disease; the others had secondary progressive disease. The rate of change in the brain parenchymal fraction was -0.0010 per year with ibudilast and -0.0019 per year with placebo (difference, 0.0009; 95% confidence interval, 0.00004 to 0.0017; P=0.04), which represents approximately 2.5 ml less brain-tissue loss with ibudilast over a period of 96 weeks. Adverse events with ibudilast included gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, and depression. CONCLUSIONS: In a phase 2 trial involving patients with progressive multiple sclerosis, ibudilast was associated with slower progression of brain atrophy than placebo but was associated with higher rates of gastrointestinal side effects, headache, and depression. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and others; NN102/SPRINT-MS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01982942 .).

New applications for independent activities of daily living in measuring disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Disability outcome measures in multiple sclerosis (MS) focus heavily on ambulation; however, limitations in performing everyday activities encompass another type of disability. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the ability of instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) scale to discriminate between different levels of disability and to predict disability progression. METHODS: The North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis (NARCOMS) registry fall 2006 semi-annual survey asked participants to complete the RAND-12, Performance Scales, Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS), and IADL questionnaires. We modeled the trajectory of disability change, using the PDDS, over 12 years. Analyses used linear and repeated measures regression methods. RESULTS: Of respondents (n = 9931), 9559 (96%) completed the PDDS and IADL scale. Respondents were mostly female (76%), Caucasian (92%), and 52.3 (10.5) years old with moderate disability (median PDDS 4 (early cane)). Mean (SD) IADL total score was 20.5 (3.7). Discriminant ability of the IADL scale was higher than other measures considered at higher levels of disability. Adjusted longitudinal models showed that needing greater assistance on IADLs was independently predictive of trajectories of greater disability change. CONCLUSION: IADL scale had a greater ability to discriminate between higher disability levels than RAND-12 domains. The IADL scale may provide a useful and clinically relevant tool to measure disability in progressive MS populations.

Comparative responsiveness of the health utilities index and the RAND-12 for multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Outcome measures need to be valid and have good test-retest reliability and responsiveness. We compared the responsiveness of the RAND-12 and the Health Utilities Index-mark III (HUI3) in persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: In Spring 2018 and 2019, North American Research Committee on Multiple Sclerosis (NARCOMS) registry participants completed the HUI3, the RAND-12, and reported disability (Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS)) and employment status (full-time, part-time, and no). We used changes in PDDS and employment status as anchors. We assessed responsiveness using effect size, standardized response mean, and the responsiveness index. We used relative efficiency (RE) to compare the responsiveness of the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: We included 4769 participants in the analysis. They had a mean (standard deviation (SD)) age of 60.9 (10.1) years, and 3826 participants (80.2%) were women. RE was highest for the HUI3 for changes in in disability status (HUI3: 1.0, Physical Component Score-12 (PCS-12): 0.80, and Mental Component Score-12 (MCS-12): 0.41) and for changes in employment status (HUI3: 1.0, PCS-12: 0.70, and MCS-12: 0.17). CONCLUSION: The HUI3 was more responsive to changes in disability and employment status than the PCS-12 or MCS-12. Given the HUI3's other strong psychometric properties, it may be the preferred generic measure of HRQOL in MS.

Patient reported outcomes and performance metrics at diagnosis of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) usually evolves into secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Recognition of SPMS is important because of prognostic and treatment implications. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine distributions of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and the Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW) at SPMS diagnosis and describe the evolution of these metrics in patients with SPMS. METHODS: A tertiary MS center clinical database was queried to identify patients with RRMS and SPMS. PRO data including performance scales (PS), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), European Quality of Life-5-Dimensions (EQ-5D), and the T25FW were extracted. Descriptive statistics were calculated at SPMS diagnosis, and score trajectories were modeled. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios for time to SPMS diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 5,558 patients identified, 164 were diagnosed with SPMS between January 2008 and June 2016. At SPMS diagnosis, the mean outcome values were T25FW = 12.5 seconds (standard deviation, SD = 10.7), PS = 15.6 (SD = 6.5), PHQ-9 = 6.8 (SD = 4.2), and EQ-5D = 0.63 (SD = 0.20). Distinct patterns were observed in the measures leading up to SPMS diagnosis. Higher age, male gender, longer disease duration, and greater disability were associated with an increased hazard of SPMS diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal monitoring of PROs and performance metrics may help identify those at higher risk of near-term SPMS.

Juxtacortical susceptibility changes in progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy at the gray-white matter junction correlates with iron-enriched macrophages.

OBJECTIVE: Describe magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) susceptibility changes in progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) and identify neuropathological correlates. METHODS: PML cases and matched controls with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) were retrospectively identified. MRI brain at 3 T and 7 T were reviewed. MRI-pathology correlations in fixed brain autopsy tissue were conducted in three subjects with confirmed PML. RESULTS: With PML (n = 26 total, n = 5 multiple sclerosis natalizumab-associated), juxtacortical changes on susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) or gradient echo (GRE) sequences were noted in 3/3 cases on 7 T MRI and 14/22 cases (63.6%) on 1.5 T or 8/22 (36.4%) 3 T MRI. Similar findings were only noted in 3/25 (12.0%) of PCNSL patients (odds ratio (OR) 12.83, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.9-56.7, p < 0.001) on 1.5 or 3 T MRI. On susceptibility sequences available prior to diagnosis of PML, 7 (87.5%) had changes present on average 2.7 ± 1.8 months (mean ± SD) prior to diagnosis. Postmortem 7 T MRI showed SWI changes corresponded to areas of increased iron density along the gray-white matter (GM-WM) junction predominantly in macrophages. CONCLUSION: Susceptibility changes in PML along the GM-WM junction can precede noticeable fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) changes and correlates with iron accumulation in macrophages.

Neurofilament light chain in a phase 2 clinical trial of ibudilast in progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Sensitive and specific biomarkers for use in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) have not been established. We investigate neurofilament light (NfL) as a treatment response biomarker in progressive MS. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether ibudilast 100 mg/day alters serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of NfL in progressive MS. METHODS: In a protocol-defined exploratory analysis from a 2-year, phase 2 clinical trial of ibudilast in progressive MS (NCT01982942), serum samples were collected from 239 subjects and a subset contributed CSF and assayed using single-molecule assay (SIMOA) immunoassay. A mixed model for repeated measurements yielded log(NfL) as the response variable. RESULTS: The geometric mean baseline serum NfL was 31.9 and 28.8 pg/mL in placebo and ibudilast groups, respectively. The geometric mean baseline CSF NfL was 1150.8 and 1290.3 pg/mL in placebo and ibudilast groups, respectively. Serum and CSF NfL correlations were r = 0.52 and r = 0.78 at weeks 48 and 96, respectively. Over 96 weeks, there was no between-group difference in NfL in either serum (p = 0.76) or CSF (p = 0.46). After controlling for factors that may affect NfL, no effect of ibudilast on NfL in either serum or CSF was observed. CONCLUSION: Ibudilast treatment was not associated with a change in either serum or CSF NfL.

Siponimod: Disentangling disability and relapses in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis, impact of treatment on disability progression can be confounded if treatment also reduces relapses. OBJECTIVE: To distinguish siponimod's direct effects on disability progression from those on relapses in the EXPAND phase 3 trial. METHODS: Three estimands, one based on principal stratum and two on hypothetical scenarios (no relapses, or equal relapses in both treatment arms), were defined to determine the extent to which siponimod's effects on 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression were independent of on-study relapses. RESULTS: Principal stratum analysis estimated that siponimod reduced the risk of 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression by 14%-20% and 29%-33%, respectively, compared with placebo in non-relapsing patients. In the hypothetical scenarios, risk reductions independent of relapses were 14%-18% and 23% for 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression, respectively. CONCLUSION: By controlling the confounding impact of on-study relapses on confirmed disability progression, these statistical approaches provide a methodological framework to assess treatment effects on disability progression in relapsing and non-relapsing patients. The analyses support that siponimod may be useful for treating secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in patients with or without relapses.

Optical coherence tomography outcomes from SPRINT-MS, a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of ibudilast in progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The SPRINT-MS trial demonstrated benefit of ibudilast on brain atrophy over 96 weeks in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). Optical coherence tomography (OCT) was performed in all trial participants. OBJECTIVE: Report the OCT results of the SPRINT-MS trial. METHODS: OCT was obtained at baseline and every 6 months using spectral domain OCT and analyzed by an OCT reading center. Change in each OCT outcome measure by treatment group was estimated using linear mixed models. RESULTS: Change in pRNFL thickness was +0.0424 uM/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.3091 to 0.3939) for ibudilast versus -0.2630 uM (95% CI: -0.5973 to 0.0714) for placebo (n = 244, p = 0.22). Macular volume change was -0.00503 mm3/year (-0.02693 to 0.01688) with ibudilast versus -0.03659 mm3/year (-0.05824 to -0.01494) for placebo in the Spectralis cohort (n = 61, p = 0.044). For the Cirrus cohort, macular volume change was -0.00040 mm3/year (-0.02167, 0.020866) with ibudilast compared to -0.02083 mm3/year (-0.04134 to -0.00033) for placebo (n = 183, p = 0.1734). Ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness change, available from Cirrus, was -0.4893 uM/year (-0.9132, -0.0654) with ibudilast versus -0.9587 uM/year (-1.3677, -0.5498) with placebo (n = 183, p = 0.12). CONCLUSION: Retinal thinning in MS may be attenuated by ibudilast. Sample size estimates suggest OCT can be a viable outcome measure in progressive MS trials if a therapy has a large treatment effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NN102/SPRINT-MS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01982942.

Importance of incorporating quantitative imaging biomarker technical performance characteristics when estimating treatment effects.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Quantitative imaging biomarkers have the potential to detect change in disease early and noninvasively, providing information about the diagnosis and prognosis of a patient, aiding in monitoring disease, and informing when therapy is effective. In clinical trials testing new therapies, there has been a tendency to ignore the variability and bias in quantitative imaging biomarker measurements. Unfortunately, this can lead to underpowered studies and incorrect estimates of the treatment effect. We illustrate the problem when non-constant measurement bias is ignored and show how treatment effect estimates can be corrected. METHODS: Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the coverage of 95% confidence intervals for the treatment effect when non-constant bias is ignored versus when the bias is corrected for. Three examples are presented to illustrate the methods: doubling times of lung nodules, rates of change in brain atrophy in progressive multiple sclerosis clinical trials, and changes in proton-density fat fraction in trials for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. RESULTS: Incorrectly assuming that the measurement bias is constant leads to 95% confidence intervals for the treatment effect with reduced coverage (<95%); the coverage is especially reduced when the quantitative imaging biomarker measurements have good precision and/or there is a large treatment effect. Estimates of the measurement bias from technical performance validation studies can be used to correct the confidence intervals for the treatment effect. CONCLUSION: Technical performance validation studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers are needed to supplement clinical trial data to provide unbiased estimates of the treatment effect.