Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets.

Education is a key dimension of well-being and a crucial indicator of development1-4. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prioritize progress in education, with a new focus on inequality5-7. Here we model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets. We show that although the world is largely on track to achieve near-universal primary education by 2030, substantial challenges remain in the completion rates for secondary and tertiary education. Globally, the gender gap in schooling had nearly closed by 2018 but gender disparities remained acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. It is predicted that, by 2030, females will have achieved significantly higher educational attainment than males in 18 countries. Inequality in education reached a peak globally in 2017 and is projected to decrease steadily up to 2030. The distributions and inequality metrics presented here represent a framework that can be used to track the progress of each country towards the SDG targets and the level of inequality over time. Reducing educational inequality is one way to promote a fairer distribution of human capital and the development of more equitable human societies.

Mapping local variation in educational attainment across Africa.

Educational attainment for women of reproductive age is linked to reduced child and maternal mortality, lower fertility and improved reproductive health. Comparable analyses of attainment exist only at the national level, potentially obscuring patterns in subnational inequality. Evidence suggests that wide disparities between urban and rural populations exist, raising questions about where the majority of progress towards the education targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is occurring in African countries. Here we explore within-country inequalities by predicting years of schooling across five by five kilometre grids, generating estimates of average educational attainment by age and sex at subnational levels. Despite marked progress in attainment from 2000 to 2015 across Africa, substantial differences persist between locations and sexes. These differences have widened in many countries, particularly across the Sahel. These high-resolution, comparable estimates improve the ability of decision-makers to plan the precisely targeted interventions that will be necessary to deliver progress during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Quantifying the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender equality on health, social, and economic indicators: a comprehensive review of data from March, 2020, to September, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Gender is emerging as a significant factor in the social, economic, and health effects of COVID-19. However, most existing studies have focused on its direct impact on health. Here, we aimed to explore the indirect effects of COVID-19 on gender disparities globally. METHODS: We reviewed publicly available datasets with information on indicators related to vaccine hesitancy and uptake, health care services, economic and work-related concerns, education, and safety at home and in the community. We used mixed effects regression, Gaussian process regression, and bootstrapping to synthesise all data sources. We accounted for uncertainty in the underlying data and modelling process. We then used mixed effects logistic regression to explore gender gaps globally and by region. FINDINGS: Between March, 2020, and September, 2021, women were more likely to report employment loss (26·0% [95% uncertainty interval 23·8-28·8, by September, 2021) than men (20·4% [18·2-22·9], by September, 2021), as well as forgoing work to care for others (ratio of women to men: 1·8 by March, 2020, and 2·4 by September, 2021). Women and girls were 1·21 times (1·20-1·21) more likely than men and boys to report dropping out of school for reasons other than school closures. Women were also 1·23 (1·22-1·23) times more likely than men to report that gender-based violence had increased during the pandemic. By September 2021, women and men did not differ significantly in vaccine hesitancy or uptake. INTERPRETATION: The most significant gender gaps identified in our study show intensified levels of pre-existing widespread inequalities between women and men during the COVID-19 pandemic. Political and social leaders should prioritise policies that enable and encourage women to participate in the labour force and continue their education, thereby equipping and enabling them with greater ability to overcome the barriers they face. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Recovery incentives program: California's contingency management benefit.

OBJECTIVE: The role of methamphetamine and cocaine use in California's drug poisoning (overdose) crisis has dramatically increased in the past five (5) years and has disproportionately affected American Indian, Alaska Native, and Black Californians. No FDA-approved medications currently exist for the treatment of individuals with stimulant use disorder (StimUD). Outside the Veteran's Administration, the Recovery Incentives Program: California's Contingency Management Benefit is the first large scale implementation of contingency management (CM). CM is the behavioral treatment with the most evidence and largest effect sizes for StimUD. METHODS: The Program uses a CM protocol where participants can receive a maximum of $599 over a six-month period, contingent upon 36 stimulant-negative urine test results. Urine tests are conducted using a set of approved, CLIA-waived, point-of-care urine drug tests (UDTs). To ensure fidelity to the CM protocol and to prevent fraud, waste, and abuse, all aspects of incentive accounting and distribution are managed electronically via a custom-developed software system. Incentive distribution utilizes electronic gift cards. A significant innovation of the project is the conceptualization of the CM Coordinator, a designated and highly trained and supervised individual responsible for all aspects of CM operation in a specific site. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The California Department of Health Care Services contracted with UCLA to develop and implement a robust evaluation of the Program; goals include evaluating the effectiveness of real-world implementation and facilitating quality improvement. The project will likely significantly impact the use of CM for StimUD nationally and may well reduce stimulant-related drug poisoning deaths.

Increases in drug overdose deaths in Norway and the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Little international comparative work exists describing pandemic-related spikes in overdose and related implications for drug and public health policy. We compared increases in overdose deaths during the pandemic in Norway and the United States, two countries in the top 10 for per-capita overdose mortality, yet with very different approaches to the pandemic, healthcare and drug policy. METHODS: We examined monthly overdoses in 2020 versus baseline rates (the monthly average across 2017-2019). We compared excess overdose mortality to shifts in human mobility and social interaction, measured using cellphone-based mobility data, an indicator of the societal response to the pandemic. RESULTS: Both the US and Norway saw large magnitude exacerbations in overdose mortality during the pandemic-related lockdowns, reaching 46.8% and 57.0% above baseline, respectively. Maximum increases occurred 2-3 months after peak reductions in mobility, suggesting lagged mechanisms. While overdose mortality returned to baseline relatively quickly in Norway, rates remained elevated in the US to the end of 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Spikes in overdose mortality in both contexts may relate to disruptions in healthcare access and the drug supply becoming more potent. Norway's quicker return to baseline may reflect more robust access to harm reduction and addiction-related healthcare services. Nevertheless, it is notable that even in Norway - with universal access to high-quality services, low COVID-19 rates, and a highly effective public health infrastructure - a greater than 50% spike in overdose deaths was still seen at the onset of lockdown measures. This may have important implications for future pandemic and disaster planning.

Parental education and inequalities in child mortality: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The educational attainment of parents, particularly mothers, has been associated with lower levels of child mortality, yet there is no consensus on the magnitude of this relationship globally. We aimed to estimate the total reductions in under-5 mortality that are associated with increased maternal and paternal education, during distinct age intervals. METHODS: This study is a comprehensive global systematic review and meta-analysis of all existing studies of the effects of parental education on neonatal, infant, and under-5 child mortality, combined with primary analyses of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. The literature search of seven databases (CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) was done between Jan 23 and Feb 8, 2019, and updated on Jan 7, 2021, with no language or publication date restrictions. Teams of independent reviewers assessed each record for its inclusion of individual-level data on parental education and child mortality and excluded articles on the basis of study design and availability of relevant statistics. Full-text screening was done in 15 languages. Data extracted from these studies were combined with primary microdata from the DHS for meta-analyses relating maternal or paternal education with mortality at six age intervals: 0-27 days, 1-11 months, 1-4 years, 0-4 years, 0-11 months, and 1 month to 4 years. Novel mixed-effects meta-regression models were implemented to address heterogeneity in referent and exposure measures among the studies and to adjust for study-level covariates (wealth or income, partner's years of schooling, and sex of the child). This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020141731). FINDINGS: The systematic review returned 5339 unique records, yielding 186 included studies after exclusions. DHS data were compiled from 114 unique surveys, capturing 3 112 474 livebirths. Data extracted from the systematic review were synthesized together with primary DHS data, for meta-analysis on a total of 300 studies from 92 countries. Both increased maternal and paternal education showed a dose-response relationship linked to reduced under-5 mortality, with maternal education emerging as a stronger predictor. We observed a reduction in under-5 mortality of 31·0% (95% CI 29·0-32·6) for children born to mothers with 12 years of education (ie, completed secondary education) and 17·3% (15·0-18·8) for children born to fathers with 12 years of education, compared with those born to a parent with no education. We also showed that a single additional year of schooling was, on average, associated with a reduction in under-5 mortality of 3·04% (2·82-3·23) for maternal education and 1·57% (1·35-1·72) for paternal education. The association between higher parental education and lower child mortality was significant for both parents at all ages studied and was largest after the first month of life. The meta-analysis framework incorporated uncertainty associated with each individual effect size into the model fitting process, in an effort to decrease the risk of bias introduced by study design and quality. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this study is the first effort to systematically quantify the transgenerational importance of education for child survival at the global level. The results showed that lower maternal and paternal education are both risk factors for child mortality, even after controlling for other markers of family socioeconomic status. This study provides robust evidence for universal quality education as a mechanism to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.2 of reducing neonatal and child mortality. FUNDING: Research Council of Norway, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Rockefeller Foundation-Boston University Commission on Social Determinants, Data, and Decision Making (3-D Commission).

An Ethnographic Assessment of COVID-19‒Related Changes to the Risk Environment for People Who Use Drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

Objectives. To characterize the effects of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk environment of people who use drugs (PWUD) in Tijuana, Mexico. Methods. We used intensive participant-observation ethnography among street-based PWUD and key informants, such as frontline physicians and harm reductionists. Results. PWUD described an unprecedented cessation of police violence and extortion during the initial pandemic-related lockdown, though this quickly reversed and police violence worsened. Government-provided housing and medical treatment with methadone were temporarily provided to PWUD in a dedicated clinic, yet only for PWUD with COVID-19 symptoms. Concurrently, non‒COVID-19‒related hospital care became virtually inaccessible, and many PWUD died of untreated, chronic illnesses, such as hepatitis C, and soft-tissue infections. Border closures, decreases in social interaction, and reduced drug and sex tourism resulted in worsening food, income, and housing insecurity for many PWUD. By contrast, potent illicit drugs remained easily accessible in open-air drug markets. Conclusions. The pandemic exacerbated health risks for PWUD but also offered profound glimpses of beneficial structural changes. Efforts are needed in Tijuana and elsewhere to institutionalize positive pandemic-related shifts and ameliorate novel harms for PWUD. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S2):S199-S202. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306796).

COVID-19 and the Drug Overdose Crisis: Uncovering the Deadliest Months in the United States, January‒July 2020.

Objectives. To determine the magnitude of increases in monthly drug-related overdose mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Methods. We leveraged provisional records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided as rolling 12-month sums, which are helpful for smoothing, yet may mask pandemic-related spikes in overdose mortality. We cross-referenced these rolling aggregates with previous monthly data to estimate monthly drug-related overdose mortality for January through July 2020. We quantified historical errors stemming from reporting delays and estimated empirically derived 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. We found that 9192 (95% PI = 8988, 9397) people died from drug overdose in May 2020-making it the deadliest month on record-representing a 57.7% (95% PI = 54.2%, 61.2%) increase over May 2019. Most states saw large-magnitude increases, with the highest in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. We observed low concordance between rolling 12-month aggregates and monthly pandemic-related shocks. Conclusions. Unprecedented increases in overdose mortality occurred during the pandemic, highlighting the value of presenting monthly values alongside smoothed aggregates for detecting shocks. Public Health Implications. Drastic exacerbations of the US overdose crisis warrant renewed investments in overdose surveillance and prevention during the pandemic response and postpandemic recovery efforts.

Growing racial/ethnic disparities in overdose mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in California.

As overdose mortality is spiking during the COVID-19 pandemic, few race/ethnicity-stratified trends are available. This is of particular concern as overdose mortality was increasing most rapidly in Black and Latinx communities prior to the pandemic. We used quarterly, age-standardized overdose mortality rates from California to assess trends by race/ethnicity and drug involved over time. Rates from 2020 Q2-Q4 were compared to expected trends based on ARIMA forecasting models fit using data from 2006 to 2020 Q1. In 2020 Q2-Q4 overdose death rates rose by 49.8% from 2019, exceeding an expected increase of 11.5% (95%CI: 0.5%-22.5%). Rates significantly exceeded forecasted trends for all racial/ethnic groups. Black/African American individuals saw an increase of 52.4% from 2019, compared to 42.6% among their White counterparts. The absolute Black-White overdose mortality gap rose from 0.7 higher per 100,000 for Black individuals in 2018 to 4.8 in 2019, and further increased to 9.9 during the pandemic. Black overdose mortality in California was therefore 34.3% higher than that of White individuals in 2020 Q2-Q4. This reflects growing methamphetamine-, cocaine-, and fentanyl-involved deaths among Black communities. Growing racial disparities in overdose must be understood in the context of the unequal social and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, during which time Black communities have been subjected to the dual burden of disproportionate COVID-19 deaths and rising overdose mortality. Increased investments are required to ameliorate racial/ethnic disparities in substance use treatment, harm reduction, and the structural drivers of overdose, as part of the COVID-19 response and post-pandemic recovery efforts.

Effect of Urate-Elevating Inosine on Early Parkinson Disease Progression: The SURE-PD3 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Urate elevation, despite associations with crystallopathic, cardiovascular, and metabolic disorders, has been pursued as a potential disease-modifying strategy for Parkinson disease (PD) based on convergent biological, epidemiological, and clinical data. Objective: To determine whether sustained urate-elevating treatment with the urate precursor inosine slows early PD progression. Design, Participants, and Setting: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of oral inosine treatment in early PD. A total of 587 individuals consented, and 298 with PD not yet requiring dopaminergic medication, striatal dopamine transporter deficiency, and serum urate below the population median concentration (<5.8 mg/dL) were randomized between August 2016 and December 2017 at 58 US sites, and were followed up through June 2019. Interventions: Inosine, dosed by blinded titration to increase serum urate concentrations to 7.1-8.0 mg/dL (n = 149) or matching placebo (n = 149) for up to 2 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was rate of change in the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS; parts I-III) total score (range, 0-236; higher scores indicate greater disability; minimum clinically important difference of 6.3 points) prior to dopaminergic drug therapy initiation. Secondary outcomes included serum urate to measure target engagement, adverse events to measure safety, and 29 efficacy measures of disability, quality of life, cognition, mood, autonomic function, and striatal dopamine transporter binding as a biomarker of neuronal integrity. Results: Based on a prespecified interim futility analysis, the study closed early, with 273 (92%) of the randomized participants (49% women; mean age, 63 years) completing the study. Clinical progression rates were not significantly different between participants randomized to inosine (MDS-UPDRS score, 11.1 [95% CI, 9.7-12.6] points per year) and placebo (MDS-UPDRS score, 9.9 [95% CI, 8.4-11.3] points per year; difference, 1.26 [95% CI, -0.59 to 3.11] points per year; P = .18). Sustained elevation of serum urate by 2.03 mg/dL (from a baseline level of 4.6 mg/dL; 44% increase) occurred in the inosine group vs a 0.01-mg/dL change in serum urate in the placebo group (difference, 2.02 mg/dL [95% CI, 1.85-2.19 mg/dL]; P<.001). There were no significant differences for secondary efficacy outcomes including dopamine transporter binding loss. Participants randomized to inosine, compared with placebo, experienced fewer serious adverse events (7.4 vs 13.1 per 100 patient-years) but more kidney stones (7.0 vs 1.4 stones per 100 patient-years). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients recently diagnosed as having PD, treatment with inosine, compared with placebo, did not result in a significant difference in the rate of clinical disease progression. The findings do not support the use of inosine as a treatment for early PD. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02642393.

Early developmental electroencephalography abnormalities, neonatal seizures, and induced spasms in a mouse model of tuberous sclerosis complex.

OBJECTIVE: Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is one of the most common genetic causes of epilepsy. Seizures in TSC typically first present in infancy or early childhood, including focal seizures and infantile spasms. Infantile spasms in TSC are particularly characteristic in its strong responsiveness to vigabatrin. Although a number of mouse models of epilepsy in TSC have been described, there are very limited electroencephalographic (EEG) or seizure data during the preweanling neonatal and infantile-equivalent mouse periods. Tsc1GFAP CKO mice are a well-characterized mouse model of epilepsy in TSC, but whether these mice have seizures during early development has not been documented. The objective of this study was to determine whether preweanling Tsc1GFAP CKO mice have developmental EEG abnormalities or seizures, including spasms. METHODS: Longitudinal video-EEG and electromyographic recordings were performed serially on Tsc1GFAP CKO and control mice from postnatal days 9-21 and analyzed for EEG background abnormalities, sleep-wake vigilance states, and spontaneous seizures. Spasms were also induced with varying doses of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA). RESULTS: The interictal EEG of Tsc1GFAP CKO mice had excessive discontinuity and slowing, suggesting a delayed developmental progression compared with control mice. Tsc1GFAP CKO mice also had increased vigilance state transitions and fragmentation. Tsc1GFAP CKO mice had spontaneous focal seizures in the early neonatal period and a reduced threshold for NMDA-induced spasms, but no spontaneous spasms were observed. SIGNIFICANCE: Neonatal Tsc1GFAP CKO mice recapitulate early developmental aspects of EEG abnormalities, focal seizures, and an increased propensity for spasms. This mouse model may be useful for early mechanistic and therapeutic studies of epileptogenesis in TSC.

Maximized lateral inhibition in paired magnetic domain wall racetracks for neuromorphic computing.

Lateral inhibition is an important functionality in neuromorphic computing, modeled after the biological neuron behavior that a firing neuron deactivates its neighbors belonging to the same layer and prevents them from firing. In most neuromorphic hardware platforms lateral inhibition is implemented by external circuitry, thereby decreasing the energy efficiency and increasing the area overhead of such systems. Recently, the domain wall-magnetic tunnel junction (DW-MTJ) artificial neuron is demonstrated in modeling to be intrinsically inhibitory. Without peripheral circuitry, lateral inhibition in DW-MTJ neurons results from magnetostatic interaction between neighboring neuron cells. However, the lateral inhibition mechanism in DW-MTJ neurons has not been studied thoroughly, leading to weak inhibition only in very closely-spaced devices. This work approaches these problems by modeling current- and field- driven DW motion in a pair of adjacent DW-MTJ neurons. We maximize the magnitude of lateral inhibition by tuning the magnetic interaction between the neurons. The results are explained by current-driven DW velocity characteristics in response to an external magnetic field and quantified by an analytical model. Dependence of lateral inhibition strength on device parameters is also studied. Finally, lateral inhibition behavior in an array of 1000 DW-MTJ neurons is demonstrated. Our results provide a guideline for the optimization of lateral inhibition implementation in DW-MTJ neurons. With strong lateral inhibition achieved, a path towards competitive learning algorithms such as the winner-take-all are made possible on such neuromorphic devices.

Excess Out-of-Hospital Mortality and Declining Oxygen Saturation: The Sentinel Role of Emergency Medical Services Data in the COVID-19 Crisis in Tijuana, Mexico.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Emergency medical services (EMS) may serve as a key source of real-time data about the evolving health of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-affected populations, especially in low- and middle-income countries with less rapid and reliable vital statistics registration systems. Although official COVID-19 statistics in Mexico report almost exclusively inhospital mortality events, excess out-of-hospital mortality has been identified in other countries, including 1 EMS study in Italy that showed a 58% increase. Additionally, EMS and hospital reports from several countries have suggested that silent hypoxemia-low Spo2 in the absence of dyspnea-is associated with COVID-19. It is unclear, however, how these phenomena can be generalized to low- and middle-income countries. We assess how EMS data can be used in a sentinel capacity in Tijuana, a city on the Mexico-United States border with earlier exposure to COVID-19 than many low- and middle-income country settings. METHODS: In this observational study, we calculated numbers of weekly out-of-hospital deaths and respiratory cases handled by EMS in Tijuana, and estimated the difference between peak epidemic rates and expected trends based on data from 2014 to 2019. Results were compared with official COVID-19 statistics, stratified by neighborhood socioeconomic status, and examined for changing demographic or clinical features, including mean Spo2. RESULTS: An estimated 194.7 excess out-of-hospital deaths (95% confidence interval 135.5 to 253.9 deaths) occurred during the peak window (April 14 to May 11), representing an increase of 145% (95% CI 70% to 338%) compared with expected levels. During the same window, only 5 COVID-19-related out-of-hospital deaths were reported in official statistics. This corresponded with an increase in respiratory cases of 236.5% (95% CI 100.7% to 940.0%) and a decrease in mean Spo2 to 77.7% from 90.2% at baseline. The highest out-of-hospital death rates were observed in low-socioeconomic-status areas, although respiratory cases were more concentrated in high-socioeconomic-status areas. CONCLUSION: EMS systems may play an important sentinel role in monitoring excess out-of-hospital mortality and other trends during the COVID-19 crisis in low- and middle-income countries. Using EMS data, we observed increases in out-of-hospital deaths in Tijuana that were nearly 3-fold greater than increases reported in EMS data in Italy. Increased testing in out-of-hospital settings may be required to determine whether excess mortality is being driven by COVID-19 infection, health system saturation, or patient avoidance of health care. We also found evidence of worsening rates of hypoxemia among respiratory patients treated by EMS, suggesting a possible increase in silent hypoxemia, which should be met with increased detection and clinical management efforts. Finally, we observed social disparities in out-of-hospital death that warrant monitoring and amelioration.

Modifiable factors associated with postoperative delirium after hip fracture repair: An age-stratified retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative delirium in hip fracture patients is common and is associated with substantial morbidity and consumption of resources. OBJECTIVE: Using data from the USA, we aimed to examine the relationship between postoperative delirium and (modifiable) peri-operative factors mentioned in the American Geriatrics Society Best Practice Statement on Postoperative Delirium in Older Adults, stratified by 'young old' (<80 years) and 'old-old' (≥80 years) categories. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study from 2006 to 2016. SETTING: Population-based claims data from the USA. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing 505 152 hip fracture repairs between 2006 and 2016 as recorded in the Premier Healthcare Database. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was postoperative delirium; modifiable factors of interest were peri-operative opioid use (high, medium or low; <25th, 25 to 75th or >75th percentile of oral morphine equivalents), anaesthesia type (general, neuraxial, both), use of benzodiazepines (long acting, short acting, both), pethidine, nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics, ketamine, corticosteroids and gabapentinoids. Multilevel models assessed associations between these factors and postoperative delirium, in the full cohort, and separately in those aged less than 80 and at least 80 years. Odds ratios (ORs) and Bonferroni-adjusted 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) are reported. RESULTS: Overall, postoperative delirium incidence was 15.7% (n = 79 547). After adjustment for relevant covariates, the use of long-acting (OR 1.82, CI 1.74 to 1.89) and combined short and long-acting benzodiazepines (OR 1.56, CI 1.48 to 1.63) and ketamine (OR 1.09, CI 1.03 to 1.15), in particular, was associated with increased odds for postoperative delirium, while neuraxial anaesthesia (OR 0.91 CI 0.85 to 0.98) and opioid use (OR 0.95, CI 0.92 to 0.98 and OR 0.88, CI 0.84 to 0.92 for medium and high dose compared with low dose) were associated with lower odds; all P < 0.05. When analysing data separately by age group, effects of benzodiazepines persisted, while opioid use was only relevant in those aged less than 80 years. CONCLUSION: We identified modifiable factors associated with postoperative delirium incidence among patients undergoing hip fracture repair surgery.

Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new comprehensive measure of human capital across countries globally. METHODS: We generated a period measure of expected human capital, defined for each birth cohort as the expected years lived from age 20 to 64 years and adjusted for educational attainment, learning or education quality, and functional health status using rates specific to each time period, age, and sex for 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. We estimated educational attainment using 2522 censuses and household surveys; we based learning estimates on 1894 tests among school-aged children; and we based functional health status on the prevalence of seven health conditions, which were taken from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Mortality rates specific to location, age, and sex were also taken from GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, Finland had the highest level of expected human capital of 28·4 health, education, and learning-adjusted expected years lived between age 20 and 64 years (95% uncertainty interval 27·5-29·2); Niger had the lowest expected human capital of less than 1·6 years (0·98-2·6). In 2016, 44 countries had already achieved more than 20 years of expected human capital; 68 countries had expected human capital of less than 10 years. Of 195 countries, the ten most populous countries in 2016 for expected human capital were ranked: China at 44, India at 158, USA at 27, Indonesia at 131, Brazil at 71, Pakistan at 164, Nigeria at 171, Bangladesh at 161, Russia at 49, and Mexico at 104. Assessment of change in expected human capital from 1990 to 2016 shows marked variation from less than 2 years of progress in 18 countries to more than 5 years of progress in 35 countries. Larger improvements in expected human capital appear to be associated with faster economic growth. The top quartile of countries in terms of absolute change in human capital from 1990 to 2016 had a median annualised growth in gross domestic product of 2·60% (IQR 1·85-3·69) compared with 1·45% (0·18-2·19) for countries in the bottom quartile. INTERPRETATION: Countries vary widely in the rate of human capital formation. Monitoring the production of human capital can facilitate a mechanism to hold governments and donors accountable for investments in health and education. FUNDING: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.