Development and validation of early warning score system: A systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVES: This review aims to: 1) evaluate the quality of model reporting, 2) provide an overview of methodology for developing and validating Early Warning Score Systems (EWSs) for adult patients in acute care settings, and 3) highlight the strengths and limitations of the methodologies, as well as identify future directions for EWS derivation and validation studies. METHODOLOGY: A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL. Only peer reviewed articles and clinical guidelines regarding developing and validating EWSs for adult patients in acute care settings were included. 615 articles were extracted and reviewed by five of the authors. Selected studies were evaluated based on the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist. The studies were analyzed according to their study design, predictor selection, outcome measurement, methodology of modeling, and validation strategy. RESULTS: A total of 29 articles were included in the final analysis. Twenty-six articles reported on the development and validation of a new EWS, while three reported on validation and model modification. Only eight studies met more than 75% of the items in the TRIPOD checklist. Three major techniques were utilized among the studies to inform their predictive algorithms: 1) clinical-consensus models (n = 6), 2) regression models (n = 15), and 3) tree models (n = 5). The number of predictors included in the EWSs varied from 3 to 72 with a median of seven. Twenty-eight models included vital signs, while 11 included lab data. Pulse oximetry, mental status, and other variables extracted from electronic health records (EHRs) were among other frequently used predictors. In-hospital mortality, unplanned transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU), and cardiac arrest were commonly used clinical outcomes. Twenty-eight studies conducted a form of model validation either within the study or against other widely-used EWSs. Only three studies validated their model using an external database separate from the derived database. CONCLUSION: This literature review demonstrates that the characteristics of the cohort, predictors, and outcome selection, as well as the metrics for model validation, vary greatly across EWS studies. There is no consensus on the optimal strategy for developing such algorithms since data-driven models with acceptable predictive accuracy are often site-specific. A standardized checklist for clinical prediction model reporting exists, but few studies have included reporting aligned with it in their publications. Data-driven models are subjected to biases in the use of EHR data, thus it is particularly important to provide detailed study protocols and acknowledge, leverage, or reduce potential biases of the data used for EWS development to improve transparency and generalizability.

Identifying Urinary Tract Infection-Related Information in Home Care Nursing Notes.

OBJECTIVES: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in home care but not easily captured with standard assessment. This study aimed to examine the value of nursing notes in detecting UTI signs and symptoms in home care. DESIGN: The study developed a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to automatically identify UTI-related information in nursing notes. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Home care visit notes (n = 1,149,586) and care coordination notes (n = 1,461,171) for 89,459 patients treated in the largest nonprofit home care agency in the United States during 2014. MEASURES: We generated 6 categories of UTI-related information from literature and used the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) to identify a preliminary list of terms. The NLP algorithm was tested on a gold standard set of 300 clinical notes annotated by clinical experts. We used structured Outcome and Assessment Information Set data to extract the frequency of UTI-related emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations and explored time-patterns in documentation of UTI-related information. RESULTS: The NLP system achieved very good overall performance (F measure = 0.9, 95% CI: 0.87-0.93) based on the test results obtained by using the notes for patients admitted to the ED or hospital due to UTI. UTI-related information was significantly more prevalent (P < .01 for all the tests) in home care episodes with UTI-related ED admission or hospitalization vs the general patient population; 81% of home care episodes with UTI-related hospitalization or ED admission had at least 1 category of UTI-related information vs 21.6% among episodes without UTI-related hospitalization or ED admission. Frequency of UTI-related information documentation increased in advance of UTI-related hospitalization or ED admission, peaking within a few days before the event. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Information in nursing notes is often overlooked by stakeholders and not integrated into predictive modeling for decision-making support, but our findings highlight their value in early risk identification and care guidance. Health care administrators should consider using NLP to extract clinical data from nursing notes to improve early detection and treatment, which may lead to quality improvement and cost reduction.

Utilizing timestamps of longitudinal electronic health record data to classify clinical deterioration events.

OBJECTIVE: To propose an algorithm that utilizes only timestamps of longitudinal electronic health record data to classify clinical deterioration events. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study explores the efficacy of machine learning algorithms in classifying clinical deterioration events among patients in intensive care units using sequences of timestamps of vital sign measurements, flowsheets comments, order entries, and nursing notes. We design a data pipeline to partition events into discrete, regular time bins that we refer to as timesteps. Logistic regressions, random forest classifiers, and recurrent neural networks are trained on datasets of different length of timesteps, respectively, against a composite outcome of death, cardiac arrest, and Rapid Response Team calls. Then these models are validated on a holdout dataset. RESULTS: A total of 6720 intensive care unit encounters meet the criteria and the final dataset includes 830 578 timestamps. The gated recurrent unit model utilizes timestamps of vital signs, order entries, flowsheet comments, and nursing notes to achieve the best performance on the time-to-outcome dataset, with an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.101 (0.06, 0.137), a sensitivity of 0.443, and a positive predictive value of 0. 092 at the threshold of 0.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that our recurrent neural network models using only timestamps of longitudinal electronic health record data that reflect healthcare processes achieve well-performing discriminative power.

Healthcare Process Modeling to Phenotype Clinician Behaviors for Exploiting the Signal Gain of Clinical Expertise (HPM-ExpertSignals): Development and evaluation of a conceptual framework.

OBJECTIVE: There are signals of clinicians' expert and knowledge-driven behaviors within clinical information systems (CIS) that can be exploited to support clinical prediction. Describe development of the Healthcare Process Modeling Framework to Phenotype Clinician Behaviors for Exploiting the Signal Gain of Clinical Expertise (HPM-ExpertSignals). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We employed an iterative framework development approach that combined data-driven modeling and simulation testing to define and refine a process for phenotyping clinician behaviors. Our framework was developed and evaluated based on the Communicating Narrative Concerns Entered by Registered Nurses (CONCERN) predictive model to detect and leverage signals of clinician expertise for prediction of patient trajectories. RESULTS: Seven themes-identified during development and simulation testing of the CONCERN model-informed framework development. The HPM-ExpertSignals conceptual framework includes a 3-step modeling technique: (1) identify patterns of clinical behaviors from user interaction with CIS; (2) interpret patterns as proxies of an individual's decisions, knowledge, and expertise; and (3) use patterns in predictive models for associations with outcomes. The CONCERN model differentiated at risk patients earlier than other early warning scores, lending confidence to the HPM-ExpertSignals framework. DISCUSSION: The HPM-ExpertSignals framework moves beyond transactional data analytics to model clinical knowledge, decision making, and CIS interactions, which can support predictive modeling with a focus on the rapid and frequent patient surveillance cycle. CONCLUSIONS: We propose this framework as an approach to embed clinicians' knowledge-driven behaviors in predictions and inferences to facilitate capture of healthcare processes that are activated independently, and sometimes well before, physiological changes are apparent.

The Communicating Narrative Concerns Entered by Registered Nurses (CONCERN) Clinical Decision Support Early Warning System: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Pragmatic Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Every year, hundreds of thousands of inpatients die from cardiac arrest and sepsis, which could be avoided if those patients' risk for deterioration were detected and timely interventions were initiated. Thus, a system is needed to convert real-time, raw patient data into consumable information that clinicians can utilize to identify patients at risk of deterioration and thus prevent mortality and improve patient health outcomes. The overarching goal of the COmmunicating Narrative Concerns Entered by Registered Nurses (CONCERN) study is to implement and evaluate an early warning score system that provides clinical decision support (CDS) in electronic health record systems. With a combination of machine learning and natural language processing, the CONCERN CDS utilizes nursing documentation patterns as indicators of nurses' increased surveillance to predict when patients are at the risk of clinical deterioration. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this cluster randomized pragmatic clinical trial is to evaluate the effectiveness and usability of the CONCERN CDS system at 2 different study sites. The specific aim is to decrease hospitalized patients' negative health outcomes (in-hospital mortality, length of stay, cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit transfers, and 30-day hospital readmission rates). METHODS: A multiple time-series intervention consisting of 3 phases will be performed through a 1-year period during the cluster randomized pragmatic clinical trial. Phase 1 evaluates the adoption of our algorithm through pilot and trial testing, phase 2 activates optimized versions of the CONCERN CDS based on experience from phase 1, and phase 3 will be a silent release mode where no CDS is viewable to the end user. The intervention deals with a series of processes from system release to evaluation. The system release includes CONCERN CDS implementation and user training. Then, a mixed methods approach will be used with end users to assess the system and clinician perspectives. RESULTS: Data collection and analysis are expected to conclude by August 2022. Based on our previous work on CONCERN, we expect the system to have a positive impact on the mortality rate and length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The CONCERN CDS will increase team-based situational awareness and shared understanding of patients predicted to be at risk for clinical deterioration in need of intervention to prevent mortality and associated harm. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03911687; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03911687. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/30238.

Chia, a large annotated corpus of clinical trial eligibility criteria.

We present Chia, a novel, large annotated corpus of patient eligibility criteria extracted from 1,000 interventional, Phase IV clinical trials registered in ClinicalTrials.gov. This dataset includes 12,409 annotated eligibility criteria, represented by 41,487 distinctive entities of 15 entity types and 25,017 relationships of 12 relationship types. Each criterion is represented as a directed acyclic graph, which can be easily transformed into Boolean logic to form a database query. Chia can serve as a shared benchmark to develop and test future machine learning, rule-based, or hybrid methods for information extraction from free-text clinical trial eligibility criteria.

Short-Term Outcome Predictors in Patients With Primary Adhesive Capsulitis Treated With Ultrasound-Guided Hydrodilatation With Corticosteroids.

OBJECTIVE: Glenohumeral joint hydrodilatation with corticosteroids has been proposed as an effective secondary therapeutic procedure for primary adhesive capsulitis. However, little is known about which subgroup of patients would benefit from this procedure. This study aimed to identify covariates associated with improved prognosis in patients receiving ultrasound-guided hydrodilatation with corticosteroid injection. DESIGN: This was a cohort study. Data on baseline demographic characteristics, disease status, past medical conditions, and initial ultrasonographic findings were collected. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the prognostic factors associated with better clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients (54 shoulders) were included. Linear regression analysis showed that coracohumeral ligament thickness of less than 3 mm, use of analgesics before hydrodilatation, and female sex were associated with good improvement in the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index score. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that coracohumeral ligament thickness of less than 3 mm on ultrasound was associated with a strong tendency (P = 0.054) of reaching the minimal detectable change. In addition, capsule rupture did not play a role in determining the clinical efficacy of hydrodilatation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with primary adhesive capsulitis, coracohumeral ligament thickness of less than 3 mm is correlated with greater short-term improvement in the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index score after ultrasound-guided hydrodilatation with steroid injection is performed.

Leveraging Clinical Expertise as a Feature - not an Outcome - of Predictive Models: Evaluation of an Early Warning System Use Case.

Identifying patients at risk of deterioration in the hospital and intervening more quickly to prevent adverse events is a top patient safety priority. Early warning scores (EWS) identify at risk patients, but there is much opportunity for improvement particularly related to increasing lead time - the time from an alert trigger to adverse event (e.g., cardiac arrest, death). Our team develops healthcare process models of clinical concern (HPM-CC) and in this work has identified documentation signals that are proxies of nurses concern and can be used to predict patient risk earlier than current EWS systems that rely only on physiological data. We compared the performance of a validated EWS - the MEWS - to our novel model (MEWS-CC) comprised of MEWS criteria plus 3 proxy variables of nursing concern. MEWS-CC performed similarly to MEWS, with the added benefit of increased the time from EWS trigger to event by 5-26 hours.