Mathematical models of drug-resistant tuberculosis lack bacterial heterogeneity: A systematic review.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) threatens progress in the control of TB. Mathematical models are increasingly being used to guide public health decisions on managing both antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and TB. It is important to consider bacterial heterogeneity in models as it can have consequences for predictions of resistance prevalence, which may affect decision-making. We conducted a systematic review of published mathematical models to determine the modelling landscape and to explore methods for including bacterial heterogeneity. Our first objective was to identify and analyse the general characteristics of mathematical models of DR-mycobacteria, including M. tuberculosis. The second objective was to analyse methods of including bacterial heterogeneity in these models. We had different definitions of heterogeneity depending on the model level. For between-host models of mycobacterium, heterogeneity was defined as any model where bacteria of the same resistance level were further differentiated. For bacterial population models, heterogeneity was defined as having multiple distinct resistant populations. The search was conducted following PRISMA guidelines in five databases, with studies included if they were mechanistic or simulation models of DR-mycobacteria. We identified 195 studies modelling DR-mycobacteria, with most being dynamic transmission models of non-treatment intervention impact in M. tuberculosis (n = 58). Studies were set in a limited number of specific countries, and 44% of models (n = 85) included only a single level of "multidrug-resistance (MDR)". Only 23 models (8 between-host) included any bacterial heterogeneity. Most of these also captured multiple antibiotic-resistant classes (n = 17), but six models included heterogeneity in bacterial populations resistant to a single antibiotic. Heterogeneity was usually represented by different fitness values for bacteria resistant to the same antibiotic (61%, n = 14). A large and growing body of mathematical models of DR-mycobacterium is being used to explore intervention impact to support policy as well as theoretical explorations of resistance dynamics. However, the majority lack bacterial heterogeneity, suggesting that important evolutionary effects may be missed.

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.

MIC distribution analysis identifies differences in AMR between population sub-groups.

Background: Phenotypic data, such as the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of bacterial isolates from clinical samples, are widely available through routine surveillance. MIC distributions inform antibiotic dosing in clinical care by determining cutoffs to define isolates as susceptible or resistant. However, differences in MIC distributions between patient sub-populations could indicate strain variation and hence differences in transmission, infection, or selection. Methods: The Vivli AMR register contains a wealth of MIC and metadata for a vast range of bacteria-antibiotic combinations. Using a generalisable methodology followed by multivariate regression, we explored MIC distribution variations across 4 bacteria, covering 7,135,070 samples, by key population sub-groups such as age, sex and infection type, and over time. Results: We found clear differences between MIC distributions across various patient sub-groups for a subset of bacteria-antibiotic pairings. For example, within Staphylococcus aureus, MIC distributions by age group and infection site displayed clear trends, especially for levofloxacin with higher resistance levels in older age groups (odds of 2.17 in those aged 85+ compared to 19-64), which appeared more often in men. This trend could reflect greater use of fluoroquinolones in adults than children but also reveals an increasing MIC level with age, suggesting either transmission differences or accumulation of resistance effects. We also observed high variations by WHO region, and over time, with the latter likely linked to changes in surveillance. Conclusions: We found that MIC distributions can be used to identify differences in AMR levels between population sub-groups. Our methodology could be used more widely to unveil hidden transmission sources and effects of antibiotic use in different patient sub-groups, highlighting opportunities to improve stewardship programmes and interventions, particularly at local scales.

Resistance of bacteria to antibiotics is a global problem and causes millions of deaths every year. How resistant an organism is to an antibiotic can be measured very easily and cheaply and can potentially provide a lot of information about bacterial evolution and how to use the right antibiotics to treat infections. We took multiple large, global collections of these measurements and combined them together. We then took this large dataset, and looked at whether any differences in the degree of resistance could be seen when you separated the bacteria by the background of the patient they came from. In other words, we looked at whether certain groups of patients had more or less resistant bacteria. For some very important bacterial species, we found that age played a strong role, with some bacteria from older people having more resistance against some antibiotics. Also, generally men had infections with bacteria with more resistance. The type of infection was also important, as was the region of the world that the patient was from, with South-East Asia generally having more risk of higher resistance. These results highlight that we can use this data to discover more subtle differences in the bacteria causing infections that different patients suffer from. This could help us to change how we use antibiotics, so that we can maximise their effectiveness for longer. Whilst these results were very interesting, the main thing that we hope to highlight is that this method could be used effectively in local hospitals, where resistance data is collected routinely and often, to try and help doctors to understand AMR in their settings, intervene to prevent spread and better prescribe antibiotics day-to-day.

Antimicrobial resistance and COVID-19: Intersections and implications.

Before the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was among the top priorities for global public health. Already a complex challenge, AMR now needs to be addressed in a changing healthcare landscape. Here, we analyse how changes due to COVID-19 in terms of antimicrobial usage, infection prevention, and health systems affect the emergence, transmission, and burden of AMR. Increased hand hygiene, decreased international travel, and decreased elective hospital procedures may reduce AMR pathogen selection and spread in the short term. However, the opposite effects may be seen if antibiotics are more widely used as standard healthcare pathways break down. Over 6 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the dynamics of AMR remain uncertain. We call for the AMR community to keep a global perspective while designing finely tuned surveillance and research to continue to improve our preparedness and response to these intersecting public health challenges.

What settings have been linked to SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters?

Background: Concern about the health impact of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in widespread enforced reductions in people's movement ("lockdowns"). However, there are increasing concerns about the severe economic and wider societal consequences of these measures. Some countries have begun to lift some of the rules on physical distancing in a stepwise manner, with differences in what these "exit strategies" entail and their timeframes. The aim of this work was to inform such exit strategies by exploring the types of indoor and outdoor settings where transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported to occur and result in clusters of cases. Identifying potential settings that result in transmission clusters allows these to be kept under close surveillance and/or to remain closed as part of strategies that aim to avoid a resurgence in transmission following the lifting of lockdown measures. Methods: We performed a systematic review of available literature and media reports to find settings reported in peer reviewed articles and media with these characteristics. These sources are curated and made available in an editable online database. Results: We found many examples of SARS-CoV-2 clusters linked to a wide range of mostly indoor settings. Few reports came from schools, many from households, and an increasing number were reported in hospitals and elderly care settings across Europe. Conclusions: We identified possible places that are linked to clusters of COVID-19 cases and could be closely monitored and/or remain closed in the first instance following the progressive removal of lockdown restrictions. However, in part due to the limits in surveillance capacities in many settings, the gathering of information such as cluster sizes and attack rates is limited in several ways: inherent recall bias, biased media reporting and missing data.