Competition and Premium Costs in Single-Insurer Marketplaces: A Study of Five Rural States.

Issue: In 2017, five states--Alabama, Alaska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wyoming--had only one issuer participating in their health care marketplaces, limiting consumer choice and competition among insurers. Goal: Examine the history of participation in the individual market from 2010 (before the Affordable Care Act was enacted) to 2017, and analyze premium changes among marketplace plans. Methods: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's HIX Compare, which provides national data on the marketplaces from 2014 to 2017. Findings and Conclusions: In 2010, the individual insurance market was already concentrated in the five study states, with Blue Cross and Blue Shield (BCBS) plans covering the majority of enrollees. By 2015, with the marketplaces in full swing, more issuers were competing in the five states. But by 2016, co-ops were facing bankruptcy and left the marketplaces in these states; and in 2017, citing large financial losses, national issuers UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and Humana also exited, leaving only a single BCBS plan in each state. Three of the five states experienced substantially higher annual premium increases than the national average. Policy options with bipartisan support, such as resuming cost-sharing reduction payments and reestablishing reinsurance and risk corridors, could help attract new or returning issuers to marketplaces in these states.

Why Are the Health Insurance Marketplaces Thriving in Some States but Struggling in Others?

Issue: In 2017, health insurance marketplaces in some states were thriving, while those in other states were struggling. What explains these differences? Goal: Identify factors that explain differences in issuers' participation levels in state insurance marketplaces. Methods: Analysis of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's HIX Compare dataset, and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' 2010 Supplemental Health Care Exhibit Report. Findings and Conclusions: State policies and insurance regulations were key factors affecting the number of issuers participating in the marketplaces in 2017. Marketplaces run by states had more issuers than states that rely on the federally facilitated marketplace. States with fewer than four issuers tended to have policies in place that could have been destabilizing--for example, permitting the sale of plans not compliant with the Affordable Care Act's requirements regarding essential health benefits or guaranteed issue. Consumers in states that did not take steps to enforce these insurance market reforms still benefited from their protections, however; they were just enforced at the federal level. States with more issuers were also more likely to have expanded Medicaid. States with fewer issuers tended to be rural and have smaller populations, more concentrated hospital markets, and lower physician-to-population ratios.

Choosing the 'best' plan in a health insurance exchange: actuarial value tells only part of the story.

In the health insurance exchanges that will come online in 2014, consumers will be able to compare health plans with respect to actuarial value, or the percentage of health care costs that a plan would pay for a standard population. This analysis illustrates the out-of-pocket costs that might result from plans with various plan designs and actuarial values. We find that average out-of-pocket expense declines as actuarial values rise, but two plans with similar actuarial values can produce very different outcomes for a given person. The overall affordability of a plan also will be influenced by age rating, income-related premium subsidies, and out-of-pocket subsidies. Actuarial value is a useful starting point for selecting a plan, but it does not pinpoint which plan will produce the best overall value for a particular person.

Does the Congressional Budget Office underestimate savings from reform? A review of the historical record.

When the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) "scores" legislation, or assesses the likely cost impact, it requires substantial evidence that a cost-saving initiative has historically achieved savings. The agency has difficulty addressing the impact of multiple changes made simultaneously without historical precedent where there is an interaction effect among proposed changes. This study examines CBO scoring of major reform legislation enacted during each of the past three decades, including the prospective payment system for hospitals in the 1980s, the Balanced Budget Act of the 1990s, and the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003. In contrasting actual spending with predicted spending, CBO, in all three cases, substantially underestimated savings from these reform measures.

Grandfathered, Grandmothered, And ACA-Compliant Health Plans Have Equivalent Premiums.

Many small employers offer employees health plans that are not fully compliant with Affordable Care Act (ACA) provisions such as covering preventive services without cost sharing. These "grandfathered" and "grandmothered" plans accounted for about 65 percent of enrollment in the small-group market in 2014. Premium costs for these and ACA-compliant plans were equivalent.

Consumers Buy Lower-Cost Plans On Covered California, Suggesting Exposure To Premium Increases Is Less Than Commonly Reported.

With the notable exception of California, states have not made enrollment data for their Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace plans publicly available. Researchers thus have tracked premium trends by calculating changes in the average price for plans offered (a straight average across plans) rather than for plans purchased (a weighted average). Using publicly available enrollment data for Covered California, we found that the average purchased price for all plans was 11.6 percent less than the average offered price in 2014, 13.2 percent less in 2015, and 15.2 percent less in 2016. Premium growth measured by plans purchased was roughly 2 percentage points less than when measured by plans offered in 2014-15 and 2015-16. We observed shifts in consumer choices toward less costly plans, both between and within tiers, and we estimate that a $100 increase in a plan's net annual premium reduces its probability of selection. These findings suggest that the Marketplaces are helping consumers moderate premium cost growth.

Health benefits offer rates: is there a nonresponse bias?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a nonresponse bias exists in the offer rate for health benefits in firms with fewer than 50 workers and to present a simple adjustment to correct for observed bias. DATA SOURCES: The 2003 Employer Health Benefits Survey (EHBS) conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust, and a follow-up survey of nonrespondents to the 2003 EHBS. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a follow-up survey to the 2003 EHBS to collect health benefits offering data from firms with fewer than 50 workers. We used McNemar's test to verify that the follow-up survey provided results comparable to the EHBS, and t-tests were used to determine nonresponse bias. We applied a simple weighting adjustment to the EHBS. DATA COLLECTION: The data for both the EHBS and the follow-up survey were collected by the same survey research firm. The EHBS interviews the person most knowledgeable about the firm's health benefits, while the follow-up survey interviews the first person who answers the telephone whether they are the most knowledgeable or not. Principal Findings. Firms with 3-9 workers were more likely to exhibit a bias than were firms with 10-24 workers and 25-49 workers. Although the calculated bias for each size category was not significant, there is sufficient evidence to warrant caution when reporting offer rates. CONCLUSIONS: Survey nonresponse in the EHBS produces an upward bias on estimates for the offer rates of small firms. Although not significant, this upward bias is because of nonresponse by small firms that do not offer health benefits. Our research is limited in that we only control for differences in the size of the firm.

An Early Look At SHOP Marketplaces: Low Premiums, Adequate Plan Choice In Many, But Not All, States.

The Affordable Care Act created the Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP) Marketplaces to help small businesses provide health insurance to their employees. To attract the participation of substantial numbers of small employers, SHOP Marketplaces must demonstrate value-added features unavailable in the traditional small-group market. Such features could include lower premiums than those for plans offered outside the Marketplace and more extensive choices of carriers and plans. More choices are necessary for SHOP Marketplaces to offer the "employee choice model," in which employees may choose from many carriers and plans. This study compared the numbers of carriers and plans and premium levels in 2014 for plans offered through SHOP Marketplaces with those of plans offered only outside of the Marketplaces. An average of 4.3 carriers participated in each state's Marketplace, offering a total of forty-seven plans. Premiums for plans offered through SHOP Marketplaces were, on average, 7 percent less than those in the same metal tier offered only outside of the Marketplaces. Lower premiums and the participation of multiple carriers in most states are a source of optimism for future enrollment growth in SHOP Marketplaces. Lack of broker buy-in in many states and burdensome enrollment processes are major impediments to success.

Collectively bargained health plans: more comprehensive, less cost sharing than employer plans.

National statistics on the cost and provisions of collectively bargained health plans show them to have similar single premiums, but lower family premiums, compared to employer-based plans not subject to collective bargaining. Union members contribute 4 percent and 6 percent of the cost of their premiums for single and family coverage, respectively, versus 18 percent and 29 percent for workers in employer-based plans. Cost sharing in collectively bargained plans is considerably less than in employer-based plans; coverage for prescription drugs is similar.

In Second Year Of Marketplaces, New Entrants, ACA 'Co-Ops,' And Medicaid Plans Restrain Average Premium Growth Rates.

Premiums for health insurance plans offered through the federally facilitated and state-based Marketplaces remained steady or increased only modestly from 2014 to 2015. We used data from the Marketplaces, state insurance departments, and insurer websites to examine patterns of premium pricing and the factors behind these patterns. Our data came from 2,964 unique plans offered in 2014 and 4,153 unique plans offered in 2015 in forty-nine states and the District of Columbia. Using descriptive and multivariate analysis, we found that the addition of a carrier in a rating area lowered average premiums for the two lowest-cost silver plans and the lowest-cost bronze plan by 2.2 percent. When all plans in a rating area were included, an additional carrier was associated with an average decline in premiums of 1.4 percent. Plans in the Consumer Operated and Oriented Plan Program and Medicaid managed care plans had lower premiums and average premium increases than national commercial and Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans. On average, premiums fell by an appreciably larger amount for catastrophic and bronze plans than for gold plans, and premiums for platinum plans increased. This trend of low premium increases overall is unlikely to continue, however, as insurers are faced with mounting medical claims.

Self-insurance in times of growing and retreating managed care.

This paper examines trends in self-insurance and in the content of self-insured plans from 1993 to 2001. The percentage of employees enrolled in self-insured plans fell during these years. Much of the decrease was attributable to the decline of indemnity insurance and the rise of HMO and point-of-service plan enrollment. If the product mix had remained constant throughout these years, self-insured enrollment would have grown between 1993 and 1996 and then declined to its current 50 percent level. As a result of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), the use of preexisting condition clauses declined dramatically in self-insured plans. Self-insured and purchased plans cost similar amounts and provide similar benefits. Cost sharing is somewhat lower in self-insured PPO plans. During periods of rapid inflation, premiums increase more slowly for self-insured than for fully insured plans.

Employers' contradictory views about consumer-driven health care: results from a national survey.

Based on a random national sample of 1,856 employers, this paper examines employers' knowledge, perceptions, and present and future plan offerings for consumer-driven health care plans. Employers of all sizes are more familiar with consumer-driven health care than with organizations that promote quality of care. Many employers remain skeptical about its ability to control costs and improve quality, while a majority believe that health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs) are likely to attract healthier workers. Interest in HRAs is greatest among the largest U.S. employers. The percentage of covered workers who can choose an HRA plan should grow dramatically during the next two years.

Tracking health care costs.

This paper provides an update on trends in health care costs since 1999. Although the growth rate in overall costs has been stable since 1999, the trend in costs for hospital services rose, while that for prescription drugs declined, although it remains extremely high. Increased growth in hospital costs reflects the retreat from tightly managed care and labor shortages. The discrepancy between premium trends and cost trends has increased, which reflects the health insurance underwriting cycle. If these trends continue, likely responses by employers would lead to consumers' facing higher out-of-pocket costs and an increase in the number of uninsured persons.

Tracking health care costs: growth accelerates again in 2001.

For the first time in more than a decade, health care spending per capita rose at a double-digit rate in 2001, growing 10 percent. Spending on hospital services (both inpatient and outpatient) surged by 12 percent in 2001, reflecting increases in both hospital payment rates and use of hospital services. Hospital spending was the key driver of overall cost growth, accounting for more than half of the total increase. Prescription drug spending growth declined for the second straight year and was overtaken by spending on outpatient hospital services as the fastest-growing component of total spending. Driven by these cost trends and other factors, premiums for employment-based health insurance increased 12.7 percent in 2002--the largest increase since 1990. But taking account of the sizable amount of "benefit buy-down" in 2002, the true increase in the cost of health insurance for employers and employees was about 15 percent. Early evidence from 2002 suggests that health care cost trends are now beginning to slow, possibly setting the stage for more moderate premium growth in the future.

Consumer-driven health plans: are they more than talk now?

This paper reports marketplace developments for consumer-driven health plans in spring 2002. Findings are from interviews with executives from start-up and health insurance firms, benefit consultants, employee benefit managers, Wall Street analysts, consumer organizations, thought leaders, and policymakers. We detail available evidence about the performance of consumer-driven health plans concerning access to care, risk selection, cost containment, use of information, and legal issues. We find that these health plans are now a central pillar of health insurers' business strategy and that an estimated 1.5 million persons are enrolled in them.

Trends in retiree health benefits.

Based on national surveys of employers from 1988 through 2001 and recent key-informant interviews, this paper examines trends in employer-based retiree health benefits. We assess trends in the availability of coverage to early and Medicare-eligible retirees, the cost of coverage, plan choice and enrollment, prescription drug coverage, and recent changes in plan design. During a period of low health care inflation and record prosperity, retiree coverage declined slightly, unlike the coverage of active workers. Indemnity enrollment remains strong among retirees, and employers are cautious about Medicare+Choice because of continuing plan withdrawals. Numerous indicators point to a further and accelerating decline in retiree coverage.

Design of mental health benefits: still unequal after all these years.

This paper examines recent trends in the design and organization of coverage for mental health care using data from a Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust (KFF/HRET) national employer survey. Legislation and changes in the delivery of mental health services have altered how mental health insurance is bought and sold. However, our findings reveal that mental health coverage is still typically not offered at a level equivalent to coverage for other medical conditions. We attempt to synthesize these data with prior research as a foundation for informed debates.

Employer-sponsored insurance: how much financial protection does it provide?

The authors examine the generosity of private employer health insurance coverage using data from two large national surveys of employers. Generosity is measured as the expected out-of-pocket share of medical expenditures for a standard population, given the provisions of the coverage. On average, those covered by employer-sponsored insurance can expect to pay 25 percent of expenditures out of pocket. There is little variability across plans in this share, though plans offered by smaller employers are somewhat less generous than those offered by larger employers. Individuals who incur high costs pay a smaller share of the bill than do those with lower levels of spending. The generosity of employer-sponsored plans increased slightly in the 1990s.

Tales from the new frontier: pioneers' experiences with consumer-driven health care.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct site visits to study the early experiences of firms offering consumer-driven health care (CDHC) plans to their employees and firms that provide CDHC products. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: A convenience sample of three firms offering CDHC products to their employees, one of which is also a large insurer, and one firm offering an early CDHC product to employers. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted onsite interviews of four companies during the spring and summer of 2003. These four cases were not selected randomly. We contacted organizations that already had a consumer-driven plan in place by January 2002 so as to provide a complete year's worth of experience with CDHC. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The experience of the companies we visited indicated that favorable selection tends to result when a CDHC plan is introduced alongside traditional preferred provider organization (PPO) and health maintenance organization (HMO) plan offerings. Two sites demonstrated substantial cost-savings. Our case studies also indicate that the more mundane aspects of health care benefits are still crucial under CDHC. The size of the provider network accessible through the CDHC plan was critical, as was the role of premium contributions in the benefit design. Also, companies highlighted the importance of educating employees about new CDHC products: employees who understood the product were more likely to enroll. CONCLUSIONS: Our site visits suggest the peril (risk selection) and the promise (cost savings) of CDHC. At this point there is still far more that we do not know about CDHC than we do know. Little is known about the extent to which CDHC changes people's behavior, the extent to which quality of care is affected by CDHC, and whether web-based information and tools actually make patients become better consumers.

Retiree health insurance: recent trends and tomorrow's prospects.

Using both employer- and beneficiary-level data, we examined trends in employer-sponsored retiree health insurance and prospects for future coverage. We found that retiree health insurance has become less prevalent over the past decade, with firms reporting declines in the availability of coverage, and Medicare-eligible retirees reporting lower rates of enrollment. The future of retiree health insurance is uncertain. The forces discouraging its growth--rising premium costs, a slower economy, judicial challenges, and an uncertain Medicare+Choice (M+C) program and policy agenda--far outweigh the forces likely to encourage expansion.