Mismatches between phenotype and environment shape fitness at hyperlocal scales.

In the era of human-driven climate change, understanding whether behavioural buffering of temperature change is linked with organismal fitness is essential. According to the 'cost-benefit' model of thermoregulation, animals that live in environments with high frequencies of favourable thermal microclimates should incur lower thermoregulatory costs, thermoregulate more efficiently and shunt the associated savings in time and energy towards other vital tasks such as feeding, territory defence and mate acquisition, increasing fitness. Here, we explore how thermal landscapes at the scale of individual territories, physiological performance and behaviour interact and shape fitness in the southern rock agama lizard (Agama atra). We integrated laboratory assays of whole organism performance with behavioural observations in the field, fine-scale estimates of environmental temperature, and paternity assignment of offspring to test whether fitness is predicted by territory thermal quality (i.e. the number of hours that operative temperatures in a territory fall within an individual's performance breadth). Male lizards that occupied territories of low thermal quality spent more time behaviourally compensating for sub-optimal temperatures and displayed less. Further, display rate was positively associated with lizard fitness, suggesting that there is an opportunity cost to engaging in thermoregulatory behaviour that will change as climate change progresses.

Thermal landscape change as a driver of ectotherm responses to plant invasions.

A growing body of research demonstrates the impacts of invasive alien plants on native animals, but few studies consider thermal effects as a driver of the responses of native organisms. As invasive alien plants establish and alter the composition and arrangement of plant communities, the thermal landscapes available to ectotherms also change. Our study reviews the research undertaken to date on the thermal effects of alien plant invasions on native reptiles, amphibians, insects and arachnids. The 37 studies published between 1970 and early 2019 portray an overall detrimental effect of invasive plants on thermal landscapes, ectothermic individuals' performance and species abundance, diversity and composition. With a case study of a lizard species, we illustrate the use of thermal ecology tools in plant invasion research and test the generality of alien plant effects: changes in thermoregulation behaviour in invaded landscapes varied depending on the level of invasion and lizard traits. Together, the literature review and case study show that thermal effects of alien plants on ectotherms can be substantial albeit context-dependent. Further research should cover multiple combinations of native/invasive plant growth forms, invasion stages and ectotherm traits. More attention is also needed to test causality along the chain of effects from thermal landscapes to individuals, populations and communities.

How useful are thermal vulnerability indices?

To forecast climate change impacts across habitats or taxa, thermal vulnerability indices (e.g., safety margins and warming tolerances) are growing in popularity. Here, we present their history, context, formulation, and current applications. We highlight discrepancies in terminology and usage, and we draw attention to key assumptions underpinning the main indices and to their ecological and evolutionary relevance. In the process, we flag biases influencing these indices that are not always evaluated. These biases affect both components of index formulations, namely: (i) the characterisation of the thermal environment; and (ii) an organism's physiological and behavioural responses to more frequent and severe warming. Presently, many outstanding questions weaken a thermal vulnerability index approach. We describe ways to validate vulnerability index applications and outline issues to be considered in further developing these indices.

Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments.

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change.

AIM: Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. LOCATION: Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. RESULTS: In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities.